Assessment and Simulation of Urban Ecosystem Resilience by Coupling the RAR and Markov–FLUS Models: A Case Study of the Jinan Metropolitan Area

Li, Chenglong; Shi, Jingyi; Chen, Yihong; Zou, Wenwen; Chen, Anna; Pan, Yue

doi:10.3390/su17125305

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Assessment and Simulation of Urban Ecosystem Resilience by Coupling the RAR and Markov–FLUS Models: A Case Study of the Jinan Metropolitan Area

by

Chenglong Li

,

Jingyi Shi

,

Yihong Chen

,

Wenwen Zou

,

Anna Chen

and

Yue Pan

^*

College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Sustainability 2025, 17(12), 5305; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125305 (registering DOI)

Submission received: 13 April 2025 / Revised: 13 May 2025 / Accepted: 2 June 2025 / Published: 8 June 2025

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Abstract

Confronting escalating urban ecological risks, this study investigates ecosystem resilience evolution in the Jinan metropolitan area’s mountain–plain structure. We establish a Resistance–Adaptability–Resilience (RAR) framework integrating ecosystem service value and landscape patterns. Using Optimal Multi-layered Geo-Detector and Markov–FLUS modeling, we quantify natural–socio-economic interactions and simulate resilience under three scenarios: inertial development, cultivated land protection, and ecological priority. The results show fluctuating resilience (0.1863→0.1876→0.1863) with functional intensification in high-value areas and escalating vulnerability in low-value regions, alongside the spatial dichotomy between the resilient southern mountains and northern plains, dominated by natural factors. Cultivated land protection degrades mountain resilience via slope farming, while ecological priority stabilizes it through transitional controls. The proposed “resilience red line–development permit” mechanism demonstrates terrain and policy integration optimizing resilience allocation. This framework offers strategies to reconcile ecological conservation and farmland security in urbanizing regions.

Keywords: ecosystem resilience; RAR model; OMGD model; Markov–FLUS model; Jinan metro-politan area

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MDPI and ACS Style

Li, C.; Shi, J.; Chen, Y.; Zou, W.; Chen, A.; Pan, Y. Assessment and Simulation of Urban Ecosystem Resilience by Coupling the RAR and Markov–FLUS Models: A Case Study of the Jinan Metropolitan Area. Sustainability 2025, 17, 5305. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125305

AMA Style

Li C, Shi J, Chen Y, Zou W, Chen A, Pan Y. Assessment and Simulation of Urban Ecosystem Resilience by Coupling the RAR and Markov–FLUS Models: A Case Study of the Jinan Metropolitan Area. Sustainability. 2025; 17(12):5305. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125305

Chicago/Turabian Style

Li, Chenglong, Jingyi Shi, Yihong Chen, Wenwen Zou, Anna Chen, and Yue Pan. 2025. "Assessment and Simulation of Urban Ecosystem Resilience by Coupling the RAR and Markov–FLUS Models: A Case Study of the Jinan Metropolitan Area" Sustainability 17, no. 12: 5305. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125305

APA Style

Li, C., Shi, J., Chen, Y., Zou, W., Chen, A., & Pan, Y. (2025). Assessment and Simulation of Urban Ecosystem Resilience by Coupling the RAR and Markov–FLUS Models: A Case Study of the Jinan Metropolitan Area. Sustainability, 17(12), 5305. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125305

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Assessment and Simulation of Urban Ecosystem Resilience by Coupling the RAR and Markov–FLUS Models: A Case Study of the Jinan Metropolitan Area

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