Study on the Spatial Pattern of the Carbon Footprint of China’s E‑Commerce Express Packaging Considering Embodied Carbon Transfer

With the rapid development of e-commerce in China, carbon emissions from express packaging have become increasingly prominent, and the division of inter-regional emission responsibilities has emerged as a key research focus. Based on the principle of shared responsibility between producers and consumers, this study integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) and spatial decomposition analysis to quantify the full-life-cycle carbon footprint of China’s e-commerce express packaging across the raw material, production, and disposal stages and calculates the inter-provincial embodied carbon transfer. The findings show that: (1) in 2022, total emissions reached 41.209 million t CO₂e, exhibiting a “more in the east, less in the west” spatial pattern, with Guangdong Province as the largest source; (2) plastic packaging generates roughly twice the upstream emissions of paper packaging, while paper packaging surpasses plastic during disposal; and (3) significant inter-provincial disparities exist in embodied carbon transfer, with seven southeastern coastal provinces as net exporters and a net-import pattern of “more in the east, less in the west; more in the south, less in the north,” accounting for 40 % of the total transfer. Based on this, it is recommended that the government attach great importance to the issue of responsibility allocation arising from the embodied carbon transfer of e-commerce express packaging.