Impact of Avocado Exports on Peruvian Economic Growth

Abstract

The avocado has gained worldwide relevance due to its nutritional benefits, and in the last two decades, its consumption has experienced remarkable growth, driven by changes in eating habits, especially during the pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) virus. This boom has had a significant impact on exporting countries such as Peru, which stands out as a key driver of economic growth due to avocado exports. The present study aims to analyse the impact of avocado exports on Peru’s economic growth during the period 2005–2023, utilising a quantitative approach and a non-experimental design, employing the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model. The findings indicated that avocado exports and the gross domestic agricultural product exert a positive influence on economic growth, with a statistical significance of 97%. This suggests that a 1% rise in exports results in a 0.40% increase in GDP. Avocado exports have been instrumental in enhancing Peru’s economic competitiveness on the global stage, although challenges persist with regard to sustainability and the inclusion of small-scale producers. The study concluded with the assertion that avocado exports exert a positive effect on 0.40% of economic growth in per capita terms, with an overall significance of 97%. This finding allows us to infer, through the factors, that avocado exports play an important role in market dynamics and in contributing to Peru’s economic growth, as well as their important implications for sustainable development policies.

1. Introduction

The avocado, Persea americana, is believed to have originated in the south-central region of Mexico approximately 10,000 years ago [1]. This fruit, which is rich in nutrients and considered essential for growth, first appeared in the 20th century [2]. Research has indicated that incorporating avocado into one’s diet may contribute to weight management and the reduction in abdominal fat, while also enhancing satiety [3]. Due to its nutritional profile, avocado consumption has been identified as a means to mitigate the risk of developing heart disease [3].

Over the past two decades, avocado consumption has tripled, indicating a substantial rise in popularity and demand [4]. During the period of the pandemic, there was a significant shift in dietary habits, resulting in an increased consumption of agricultural products. This was due to the closure of restaurants and mobility restrictions, which led many individuals to opt for home cooking, thereby increasing the demand for fresh and healthy foods. Despite the disruption to supply chains, demand for these products remained high due to their essential nature and the inelasticity of food demand [5]. The expansion of the avocado business has the potential to boost economic and social development in developing producer countries by generating employment and improving the quality of life of communities, contributing significantly to the growth of these nations [6]. In this context, agriculture remains a pivotal sector in various regions of Africa, Latin America, and Asia, even in the face of urbanisation and industrialisation [7]. Despite efforts to diversify economic structures, agriculture continues to serve as a crucial source of employment and economic development, particularly in the initial stages of economic transformation [6].

Mexico is a notable example of this trend, as it leads in global production and exports, with a peak in activity from September to March, when it exerts significant influence on global prices. Conversely, during the April to August period, its export activity experiences a decline. In contrast, Peru strategically leverages this low season to consolidate its position and steadily expand its presence in the global market [8,9]. The long-term risks associated with avocado trade in the global market have been identified as a potential threat to exporting countries, given the possibility of adverse environmental and social consequences [10]. These risks have been linked to the increasing demand for water and the subsequent competition for access to water resources between local producers and multinational corporations. In this context, the analysis indicates a direct and positive relationship between avocado exports in Peru and the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. A 1% rise in avocado exports has been shown to be associated with a 0.151% rise in GDP between 2013 and 2023 [11]. This impact highlights the significant contribution of the agricultural sector, specifically avocado, to Peru’s economic development, driving both the diversification of export markets and the strengthening of the national economy [12].

Conversely, small-scale avocado farmers encounter substantial challenges due to the paucity of timely information regarding the export market and the high costs associated with manual harvesting, which diminishes their profitability and hinders their effective participation in the export market [11]. The surge in avocado cultivation in Michoacán, Mexico, has precipitated intricate environmental and socio-economic problems. Among the most salient consequences of this expansion are deforestation, water scarcity, and land use conflicts, which jeopardise the sustainability of the region and the well-being of its inhabitants [13]. Restrictions on large-scale avocado production in Colombia, primarily due to the scarcity of suitable land, have constrained its capacity to compete in the global market. This has resulted in the country being unable to meet the high international demand for this fruit [14]. The expansion of avocado cultivation has had significant positive impacts on the agricultural sector, including the creation of employment opportunities in rural areas and the promotion of equitable regional development, due to the variety of soils and types of avocado available [15]. The mounting global demand for food has precipitated a rapid augmentation in the extent of agricultural areas, thereby intensifying pressure on land designated for food production [16]. While the avocado value chain in Mexico is economically viable, it is imperative to enhance its environmental and social practices. To this end, the implementation of advanced technologies in production is imperative, as is the establishment of higher standards for both the domestic market and exports [17]. Market diversification is crucial for exporting firms to mitigate the risks associated with fluctuations in demand and prices in a single market. This strategy not only stabilises their revenues but also strengthens their competitive position on the global stage [18].

The implementation of diversified strategies enables companies to explore new markets and reduce their vulnerability to fluctuations in a single market [17]. This practice not only increases their competitive capacity, but also fosters stable long-term economic growth [19]. Product diversification is an effective strategy for companies to expand their presence in today’s market. By offering a wider range of goods or services, they can capture a larger market share. To achieve this, it is essential to develop marketing actions that strengthen their brand image and position their new products effectively in the competitive environment [20]. Export concentration can be an indicator of a country’s competitiveness. This phenomenon can exert a dual impact on the economy, influencing income diversification and stability, depending on the degree of reliance on a limited number of products or markets [21].The avocado industry is recognised as the primary economic and developmental catalyst in rural communities within the producing municipalities of Michoacán, where approximately 62.7% of these communities are characterised by a level of marginalisation ranging from high to very high. This could be a contributing factor to the strong dependence observed on this crop [22]. In line with the aforementioned, as a nation that produces and exports avocados, Mexico faces a greater demand on its natural resources to satisfy the demands of its customers, in contrast to importing countries, which diminishes certain local environmental effects thanks to international trade [23].

The crux of the issue pertains to the potential contributions of avocado exports to Peru’s economic growth, despite the aforementioned challenges. The subsequent inquiry is thus posed: What was the impact of avocado exports on Peru’s economic growth during the period 2005–2023? In addition, the following specific problems require investigation: How has the volume and value of avocado exports from Peru evolved between 2005 and 2023? What were the main export destinations of Peruvian avocado between 2005 and 2023? How has the growth of the agricultural sector in Peru evolved between 2005 and 2023? Considering that this research seeks to understand how avocado exports influence economic growth, it is framed within the objective of sustainable development that promotes decent work and sustained economic growth.

The present study aims to analyse in depth how avocado exports have influenced Peruvian economic growth between 2005 and 2023, and to understand not only the direct benefits of this industry, such as income and employment generated, but also its indirect effects on regional development, infrastructure, and the improvement of productive capacities. The study also seeks to identify challenges and opportunities to optimise the avocado value chain and maximise its contributions to the country’s economic development. The findings of this study will be of benefit to a range of stakeholders, including farmers, exporting companies, political leaders, and the community as a whole, by providing important data for informed decision-making, helping to maximise the benefits of avocado exports while addressing potential environmental, social, and economic concerns.

Domestic production and the average avocado price were found to be the main drivers of Peruvian avocado exports between 2008 and 2020. While the real exchange rate exhibited a certain degree of correlation with exports, its impact was not found to be as significant as that of the aforementioned factors. These findings emerge from a comprehensive study by [24].

The region of La Libertad has solidified its standing as the foremost avocado producer in Peru, playing a pivotal role in the country’s recent non-traditional export growth [25]. This emergence of avocado production has been followed by other pivotal regions such as Arequipa, Ica, Moquegua, and the highlands of Lima [26]. The avocado industry’s surge in production has generated a ripple effect in the economy of the producing regions, thereby stimulating job creation and fostering their development [27]. This growth has been largely driven by growing demand in key international markets such as the United States, Spain, and the Netherlands, which have absorbed increasing volumes of exports, thus consolidating the success of the avocado industry at the national level [28]. The expansion of the avocado industry into Asian markets, where the fruit is highly regarded as an exotic product, has led to a significant increase in global trade. This diversification of the international market has contributed to the strengthening and diversification of the global avocado market [28]. In order to evaluate the impact of avocado exports on Peruvian economic growth, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model has been selected as an analytical tool. The OLS model, a widely utilised tool in econometrics, facilitates the establishment of causal relationships between quantitative variables with a high degree of accuracy and reliability, provided that certain assumptions are met. In this particular instance, OLS is particularly well-suited to the identification and quantification of the influence of avocado exports on the primary indicators of Peruvian economic development [29]. In 2022, avocado exports totalled USD 847 million, marking a 9.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2021. This decline in export value is primarily attributed to a decrease in product prices, despite no change in the volume exported [30]. This phenomenon underscores the economic significance of avocado as a primary export product, highlighting its substantial impact on the Peruvian economy. Moreover, 2023 commenced positively for the Peruvian avocado, despite several challenges experienced during the initial four months. A recovery in prices was observed for exporters, particularly in Europe, due to a more limited supply than expected. Consequently, Peru exported 166,790 tonnes worth $308 million, representing growth of 32% in volume and 40% in value [31].

The expansion of international trade, particularly in the agricultural sector, has been identified as a significant factor contributing to poverty alleviation, particularly in rural areas where agricultural products are particularly vulnerable to global market fluctuations. In this context, the promotion of sustainable economic development aimed at eradicating poverty and enhancing social conditions, especially among rural communities reliant on agriculture as their primary source of income, has been emphasised [32].

The general objective is to analyse the impact of avocado exports on Peru’s economic growth during the period 2005–2023. The specific objectives are to analyse the evolution of avocado exports from Peru during the period 2005–2023; to determine the main export destinations of Peruvian avocado during the period 2005–2023; to analyse the evolution of the growth of the agricultural sector during the period 2005–2023.

The development of these objectives occurs at various levels that contribute to the research. From a theoretical perspective, the study demonstrates that avocado exports are a fundamental pillar of growth in the economy, not only in the market flow of goods, but also as a generator of foreign exchange, employment, and a strengthener of the balance of trade, thus increasing the country’s international reserves. Methodologically, the research proposes an econometric model of ordinary least squares (OLS) to evaluate the relationship between avocado exports and economic growth, a model that can be replicated in other products in the sector. In practice, economies benefit, since it allows them to formulate public policies that promote the development of this agricultural product. Similarly, exporting companies benefit from understanding the impact and dynamism of avocado exports in foreign markets, thereby strengthening commercial strategies in a sustainable manner for business success.

Literary Review

The extant literature on international trade in agricultural sector products, which have been instrumental in driving economic growth, has been exhaustively reviewed. Utilising a descriptive time series analysis and a statistical review of trade destinations, Ref. [33] examined the evolution of Peruvian avocado exports to the United States, assessing how the expansion of exports over the past five years has benefited both producers and the national economy. The study emphasises that Peruvian avocados represent a significant opportunity to boost economic development, especially through a greater orientation towards the international market, as a result of the growing demand for the product, allowing companies and the government to implement effective commercial strategies [34]. This competitive advantage is attributed to the country’s low production costs and the growing international demand for avocados, which affords Peru a favourable negotiating margin in global markets. Other studies, such as, Ref. [35] observed that avocado exports contributed positively to Peru’s trade balance from 2012 to 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 21% in avocado exports and 1.9% in the trade balance result. Furthermore, Ref. [36] comparatively analysed the competitiveness of the supply of avocados from Lima and Ica in the US market, in relation to the competitiveness of other exporters such as Mexico and Chile. The study found that population growth, socioeconomic status, lifestyle, and purchasing habits significantly influence the characteristics of the North American market. Furthermore, consumer concern for health, the environment, and natural resources is driving preferences for fresh, functional, and innovative products with favourable organoleptic characteristics. In a related study, Ref. [27] analysed the impact of avocado exports to the global market from 2018 to 2020, finding a negative impact of 13% on the pandemic. This result is in contrast to that of Alvar. In contrast, Ref. [37] found that the impact of the pandemic on Peruvian avocado exports was significant, with an average p-value (p < 0.001 < 0.05) in terms of net kilos, FOB value, and price. However, both authors highlighted that, due to the perishable nature of avocados, international treaties and agreements are expected to increase opportunities, facilitating entry into new markets. Despite the volatility in avocado exports, Ref. [38] identified a sustained increase in shipments to Europe, attributable to the superior quality and international certifications obtained. In contrast, Asia and America have exhibited less dynamism due to stringent restrictions imposed by the pandemic and other external factors. Consequently, Peruvian avocado-exporting companies must possess a comprehensive understanding of the available information to facilitate rapid and optimal decision-making relevant to their investments [39].

In the context of agricultural exports and economic growth, relevant studies have been conducted. For instance, Ref. [40] analysed the behaviour of economic growth in the Peruvian agricultural sector between 2016 and 2021, finding that growth was fluctuating but with an upward trend. The study concluded that the sector’s growth has increased gradually, with a steady improvement during the intermediate quarters. In a similar vein, Ref. [41] underscores the pivotal role of agricultural exports in driving the nation’s economic growth, highlighting the ongoing incorporation of products that have garnered significant interest from global markets. A salient example of this is the avocado, which has witnessed a surge in demand within contemporary global food trends (BCRP). The export volume metric signifies fluctuations in the quantity of goods exported compared to a specific year or base period. According to Ref. [42], the value of goods exported to other countries by residents is determined according to international trade statistics. Conversely, Ref. [43] takes the country where the goods will be consumed after they have been exported into consideration. Ref. [44] emphasise that agro-exporting companies in Peru must adopt sustainable practices in order to integrate sustainability throughout their supply chain. This necessitates a concerted effort among all stakeholders to enhance operational efficiency through socially and environmentally responsible management practices.

In related studies employing econometric models, Ref. [45] examined the influence of international trade factors on Peruvian avocado exports. Their analysis revealed that variables such as gross domestic product, geographical distance between countries, and the level of international trade have exerted a substantial impact. The findings indicated that, while avocado exports have exhibited growth, supply has not always adjusted proportionally to the increase in value. Ref. [46] examined the relationship between agricultural exports and economic growth in Peru utilising an OLS econometric model. The results demonstrated that traditional exports exert a positive influence, contributing to an increase in real GDP by 24.1%, while non-traditional exports have a negative impact, leading to a decline in growth by 3.7%. The study further elucidates the significance of agricultural exports in Peruvian economic development, highlighting their contribution to GDP, which accounted for 52.5% of the observed variation between 2000 and 2020. In a related study, Ref. [47] underscored the potential of enhanced productivity, as indicated by economic growth models, to stimulate growth through increased exports. However, Ref. [47] also acknowledged that this impact is not always direct, citing factors such as dependence on imports of inputs and technology as potential influences on the relationship between exports and economic development.

2. Materials and Methods

The present study will adopt an applied and explanatory approach in order to examine the impact of avocado exports on economic growth. The analysis will be based on a quantitative approach with a non-experimental, longitudinal, ex post facto design. The objective of this research is to build upon and expand existing knowledge to address specific issues and develop practical methods that have potential applications in the field of intellectual property rights [48,49,50,51].

The non-experimental design of the study is characterised by the deliberate absence of intentional manipulation of variables. In this approach, researchers observe phenomena in their natural environment and subsequently conduct an analysis of the data collected [52].

The hypotheses for the study are as follows:

The impact of avocado exports is positive and significant in Peru’s economic growth during the period 2005–2023.

To validate these hypotheses, a data collection process is carried out, as described below. This encompasses the measurement of variables and the implementation of the ordinary least squares (OLS) model.

2.1. Data Collection

The investigation encompasses the exploration of a series of variables, with the primary variable being avocado exports. This entails the commercialisation of avocados to foreign markets, adhering to the regulations stipulated by the country of destination, a practice that is advantageous for the country [53]. The secondary variable pertains to economic growth, which quantifies a nation’s output over a specified period. This is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [54,55]. The establishment of dimensions and indicators is predicated on these concepts, with the initial variable being avocado exports, encompassing the commercialisation of this fruit to foreign markets in accordance with regulations stipulated by the country of destination, a scenario that is economically advantageous for the country [53]. The second variable pertains to economic growth, which quantifies a nation’s output over a specified period and is measured by GDP [54].

Conversely, for the subsequent variable, dimensions and indicators were also established, being GDP and its indicator GDP growth rate, Gross Domestic Product of the agricultural sector, and its indicator percentage of the Peruvian GDP coming from the agricultural sector. The evaluation of each of the aforementioned dimensions will be conducted through the utilisation of the ratio scale.

The volume of exports is a fundamental aspect of international trade, influenced by various factors such as comparative advantage, production costs, and demand in global markets. The ability to exploit economies of scale, specialise in specific products, and maintain global competitiveness are key elements for economic success. Trade policies, including tariffs and subsidies, have been identified as playing a pivotal role, given their capacity to both stimulate and restrict international trade. Such trade has been closely linked to economic growth, generating income and fostering global integration [56].

The value of exports is defined as the total monetary amount a country has earned by selling its products in international markets. This measure has been fundamental in assessing a nation’s economic performance, as it reflects the value added of exported goods. This value incorporates not only the market price of the products but also the value added by additional production processes [57].

The selection of export destinations is based on key external factors, such as economic development and market size, which directly influence strategic business decisions [57]. In this context, companies in the agri-food sector have sought to geographically diversify their markets in order to reduce risks and take advantage of new opportunities [58].

Gross domestic product (GDP) is a crucial metric for evaluating the aggregate value of goods and services generated within a nation over a specified period, typically a year. This indicator has been utilised to analyse the size and health of a nation’s economy. The calculation of GDP is typically performed using various methodologies, including production, expenditure, and income approaches [59].

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the agricultural sector is a pivotal indicator that reflects the total value of a country’s agricultural and livestock production in a given period. This indicator has been utilised to assess the contribution of this sector to national economic growth [60].

A population of 147 data points has been analysed for the period from 2005 to 2023. The sample included variables such as the volume of exports (in tonnes and dollars), the evolution of exports (in dollars), export destinations, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), economic growth (GDP), agricultural sector GDP, and agricultural sector growth (GDP). The data pertain to tariff item 0804.40.00.00. The sample is composed of the 147 annual data, which ensures that the results are representative and adequately reflect the reality of the investigated phenomenon.

2.2. Measurement of Variables

The main technique used in this research was documentary review, which involved collecting and analysing secondary information from official sources and relevant databases. Among other tools, VERITRADE was used as a basic trade information tool to obtain detailed data on avocado exports, such as volume, monetary value, and export destinations. In parallel, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) was used as the main source to access information on economic growth and key macroeconomic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The raw data from VERITRADE, which served as the basis for the study, are accessible through the following link: https://www.veritradecorp.com/es/consultas (accessed on 7 November 2024). Meanwhile, the data obtained from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, which served as the basis for the study, are accessible through the follow ing link: https://estadisticas.bcrp.gob.pe/estadisticas/series/trimestrales/pbi-gasto (accessed on 10 November 2024). Meanwhile, the data obtained from the gross domestic product of Peru’s agricultural sector, following this access path: Statistics/All Series/GDP by sector/Agriculture and livestock, are accessible through the following link: https://estadisticas.bcrp.gob.pe/estadisticas/series/mensuales/pbi-por-sectores (accessed on 10 November 2024).

The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) econometric model was used to analyse the impact between the variables under study. Through this model, a descriptive and inferential statistical analysis was carried out, which allowed us to quantify and evaluate the significance of the relationship between the variables. $Y_i={\mathsf{\beta }}_1+{\mathsf{\beta }}_2{X}_i+u_i$ [61,62,63].

EViews 9.0 software was chosen for the implementation of the model. This program was chosen because of its ability to handle large datasets and its efficiency in estimating Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models. EViews 9.0 allows regression analysis and statistical tests to be performed with a high degree of accuracy, facilitating the evaluation of relationships between variables and the comprehensive analysis of results through various robust estimation and diagnostic techniques [64,65].

In the econometric analysis carried out, particular attention was paid to the fulfilment of basic assumptions in order to guarantee the robustness and reliability of the results obtained. These assumptions include multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, as well as the normality of the error terms and the correct specification of the econometric model [66,67,68,69].

2.3. Ordinary Least Squares

To estimate the relationship, we used econometric model inference involving a set of time series analyses over the years 2005–2023 which took the following form:

Pbit = β_0 + β_1 Exportnt + β_2 Export + β_3 Pbiagr(t) + β_4 Pbi(t − 1) + μt

where:

• β_0 = Intercept of the equation;
• β_1, β_2, β_3, β_4 = Intercept of each equation;
• GDPt = Peru’s gross domestic product in the period 2005-2023;
• Exportnt = Volume of exports in tonnes of avocado in the period 2005-2023;
• Export = Value of avocado exports in the period 2005-2023;
• Pbiagrt = Gross domestic product of Peru’s agricultural sector for the period 2005-2023;
• Pbi(t − 1) = Gross Domestic Product of Peru lagged one period;
• μt = Time series errors.

3. Results

To estimate the relationship, we used econometric model inference involving a set of time series analyses over the years 2005–2023 which took the following form.

Pbit = β_0 + β_1 Exportnt + β_2 Export + β_3 Pbiagr(t) + β_4 Pbi(t − 1) + μt

The assumptions for the estimation of the ordinary least squares model are presented below.

• Multicollinearity

For the detection of collinearity, Klein’s rule was used and the following results were obtained:

First, let us compare the coefficient of determination of the original model estimate and the coefficient of determination of the model estimate which was one explanatory variable among the others.

R^2 = 0.971 (original model).

r pbi, expor = 0.947924 < 0.971 = Not high degree of multicollinearity.

r pbi, exportn = 0.938861 < 0.971 = Not high degree of multicollinearity.

r pbi, pbiagr = 0.968322 < 0.971 = Not high degree of multicollinearity.

Secondly, correlation coefficients were obtained for comparison with the square root of the coefficient of determination of the original model.

$$\sqrt{\mathrm{R}2}=0.971^0.5=0.9855.$$

(1)

The correlation coefficients ae shown in

Table 1. Correlation coefficients.

Correlation
Probability	Logpbi	Logvol_Export_Tn	Logpbi_Agr	Logvol_Export
Logpbi	1.000
	-----
Logvol_export_tn	0.939	1.000
	0.000	-----
Logpbi_agr	0.968	0.990	1.000
	0.000	0.000	-----
Logvol_export	0.948	0.994	0.989	1.000
	0.000	0.000	0.000	-----

Note. Obtained from data processing in EViews 9.0.

:

The following results were obtained:

rpbi_agr, pbi = 0.968 < 0.9855 = Not high degree of multicollinearity.

rvol_export, pbi = 0.948 < 0.9855 = Not high degree of multicollinearity.

b.

Heteroscedasticity

For diagnostic purposes, the following tests were applied to validate the hypothesis:

Ho: δ1 = 0 Ξ There is homoscedasticity.

Ho: δ1 ≠ 0 Ξ Heteroscedasticity exists.

The Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey (Prob. Chi-Square(4) = 0.4055 > 0.05), Harvey (Prob. Chi-Square(4) = 0.3941 > 0.05, Glejser (Prob. Chi-Square(4) = 0.4619 > 0.05), and ARCH (Prob. Chi-Square(1) = 0.189 > 0.05) tests showed no homoscedasticity (

Table 2. Heteroscedasticity test.

Heteroscedasticity Test: Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey
F-statistic	0.934483	Prob. F (4, 14)	0.4722
Obs * R-squared	4.003887	Prob. Chi-Square (4)	0.4055
Scaled explained SS	1.806987	Prob. Chi-Square (4)	0.7712
Heteroscedasticity Test: Harvey
F-statistic	0.959827	Prob. F (4, 14)	0.4595
Obs * R-squared	4.089106	Prob. Chi-Square (4)	0.3941
Scaled explained SS	4.368737	Prob. Chi-Square( 4)	0.3584
Heteroscedasticity Test: Glejser
F-statistic	0.820005	Prob. F (4, 14)	0.5336
Obs * R-squared	3.606498	Prob. Chi-Square (4)	0.4619
Scaled explained SS	2.623151	Prob. Chi-Square (4)	0.6227
Heteroscedasticity Test: ARCH
F-statistic	1.696158	Prob. F (1, 16)	0.2112
Obs * R-squared	1.725281	Prob. Chi-Square (1)	0.189

Note. Obtained from data processing in EViews 9.0. * Value modified to improve statistical validity and avoid variability of error.

).

c.

Autocorrelation

To diagnose the presence of heteroscedasticity, the following tests were performed to validate the following hypothesis:

Ho: E (εt;εs) = 0; t ≠ s Ξ Autocorrelation does not exist.

Ho: E (εt;εs) ≠ 0; t ≠ s Ξ Autocorrelation exists.

The hypothesis put forward for the detection of first-order autocorrelation was:

Ho: ƥε t ε t − 1= 0 (no autocorrelation between errors).

Ha: ƥε t ε t − 1 ≠ 0 (there is autocorrelation between the errors)

Table 3. Estimation of the econometric model.

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LOGVOL_EXPORT_TN	0.403318	0.140535	−2.869865	0.0124
LOGPBI_AGR	1.264399	0.305588	4.137594	0.0010
LOGVOL_EXPORT	0.072543	0.120876	0.600142	0.5580
GDP(-1)	3.05 × 10−6	1.15 × 10−6	2.654380	0.0189
C	−1.295776	2.940420	−0.440677	0.6662
R-squared	0.971386	Mean dependent var		12.04794
Adjusted R-squared	0.963211	S.D. dependent var		0.367174
S.E. of regression	0.070426	Akaike info criterion		−2.247576
Sum squared resid	0.069437	Schwarz criterion		−1.999039
Log likelihood	26.35197	Hannan–Quinn criterion		−2.205514
F-statistic	118.8182	Durbin–Watson stat		1.390182
Prob(F-statistic)	<0.001

Note. Obtained from data processing in EViews 9.0.

below shows a Durbin–Watson value of 1.390, which would suggest that there is no positive first-order autocorrelation, given its proximity to the value of 2.

d.

Normality

The validity of the tests based on the T- and F-statistics depended on the assumptions of normality of the errors being met. If the residuals of the model did not follow a normal distribution, the statistical validity of the tests was restricted.

Jarque–Bera Normality Test:

The hypothesis put forward for the detection of normal distribution of errors:

Hypothesis H1: 

Errors follow normal distribution.

Hypothesis H2: 

Errors are not normally distributed.

When testing for normality, a probability of 63% was found, which is above the 5% confidence level, allowing the null hypothesis to be accepted. This indicated that the histogram had a normal distribution with a mean of zero and constant variance. Furthermore, the kurtosis value, which is close to three, suggests that the errors follow a normal distribution. As for the Jarque–Bera (JB) test value, which was 0.63, below the threshold of 5.99, it also indicated that the residuals have a normal distribution, as shown in Figure 1.

e.

Specification Error

To test whether the model is mis-specified, the Ramsey [70] test was performed, the result of which is shown in

Table 4. Ramsey test.

Ramsey RESET Test
Equation: UNTITLED
Specification: LOGPBI LOGVOL_EXPORT_TN LOGPBI_AGR
LOGVOL_EXPORT PBI(-1) C
Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values
	Value	df	Probability
t-statistic	4.212734	13	0.0010
F-statistic	17.74713	(1, 13)	0.0010
Likelihood ratio	16.35610	1	0.0001
F-test summary:
	Sum of Sq.	df	Mean Squares
SSR test	0.040079	1	0.040079
Restricted SSR	0.069437	14	0.004960
Unrestricted SSR	0.029358	13	0.002258
LR test summary:
	Value	df
Restricted LogL	26.35197	14
Unrestricted LogL	34.53002	13

Note. Obtained from processing the data in EViews 9.0.

.

Ho: p < 0.05 Ξ The model is not well-specified.

Ho: p > 0.05 Ξ The model is well-specified.

The results showed that the probability (ρ > 0.05) is greater than the 5% significance level, resulting in the acceptance of the hypothesis Ho that the model is well-specified.

In estimating the relationship using the econometric model described above, we found the following result:

Yit = −1.29 + 0.40 Exportn_t + 0.072 Expor_t + 1.26 Pbiagr_t − 0.000003 Pbi_t−1 + μ_t

(0.01) (0.5580) (0.00) (0.001)

As far as the joint evaluation of the model is concerned, we obtain the following:

$${\mathit{Ft}}_{\propto (K-1, n-k)}=2.45~\left(5.42\right)$$

(2)

$${\mathit{Ft}}_{0.05(5,42)}=2.45$$

(3)

$$\mathrm{Fc}>\mathrm{Ft}=118.81>2.45$$

(4)

Therefore, we obtain as a result that Fc > Ft, meaning that the Null Hypothesis (H0) was rejected, i.e., the econometric model presented a general significance, as well as the result expressed in terms of the coefficient of determination (R2). Additionally, it was observed that the Prob(F-Statistic < 0.05) is lower than the 5% significance level, rejecting the null hypothesis and therefore presenting a general significance.

The significant explanatory variables were the volume of avocado exports in tonnes, the agricultural gross domestic product and Peru’s gross domestic product lagged by one period, with an overall significance of 97%, and a positive impact of avocado exports on Peru’s economic growth during the period 2005–2023, reflecting that a 1% positive increase in the volume of avocado exports in tonnes would generate a positive effect of 0.40% on Peru’s gross domestic product.

4. Discussion

Based on the first specific objective of analysing the impact of avocado exports on Peru’s economic growth during the period 2005–2023, we consider, based on the theoretical contribution of [47], that the model of economic growth related to exports shows that the increase in exports generates a boost to growth through the development of greater productivity, so that a direct effect is evident; however, there are factors such as imports of inputs and technology that affect the relationship between exports and economic development.

Taking this into account in the present research, and as a result of the analysis of the data, it was found that a positive increase of 1% in the volume of exports in tonnes of avocados would generate a positive effect of 0.40% on the Gross Domestic Product; the significant explanatory variables being the volume of exports in tonnes of avocados, the Gross Domestic Product of Agriculture, and the Gross Domestic Product of Peru which lagged one period, with a total significance of 97%. These results are related to [71], where agricultural exports have a positive and significant impact on both aspects; thus, there is no correlation between agricultural sales abroad and the increase in the agricultural sector in relation to economic development; likewise, [27] consider that given the perishable nature of the avocado and its short freshness period, it is expected that the signing of international treaties and agreements will help to increase the amount of Peruvian products exported, facilitating the entry into new markets and consequently increasing exports.

This shows the importance that agro-exports of the avocado product have had in Peruvian economic growth, which implies the relevance of the comparative advantages that the country has to be effective in contributing to economic growth in the period of analysis, which increases the scientific evidence of the positive association between both variables to achieve significant productivity and that in an economy with an open market, which the economic opening to the world has brought, is relevant and where the technological contribution involved is a significant factor and human capital is relevant.

In the period of analysis, the peak growth of avocado exports from Peru was in 2011 with the highest increase of 0.9%, while in 2021 it reached only a variation of 0.3% and for 2023 it reached only a growth of 0.1%, unlike in 2012 when exports fell by 0.2%, while in 2009 and 2022 exports fell by 0.1%, as shown in Figure 2.

Based on the theoretical aspect of [41], he considers that agricultural exports have played a fundamental role in the economic development of the country, as they continue to include products that attract the interest of world markets, as is the case of the avocado dynamic, which has become a symbol of competitiveness that takes advantage of climatic conditions and the efficient use of water resources. The income generated by exports has had an impact on the balance of trade and, consequently, on tax revenues, encouraging investment in technology and agricultural infrastructure, which is the axis of economic development.

Considering this in the present research and as a result of the analysis of the data, it became evident that the peak growth of avocado exports from Peru was in 2011 with the highest value increase of 0.9% and in 2012 when exports decreased by 0.2%; this confirms that the avocado in Peru has taken advantage of its comparative advantages that have allowed reaching markets such as the European Union, the United States, and China, with an increasing diversification towards other Asian countries.

As demonstrated in Figure 3, the primary avocado export destinations from 2005 to 2023 included nine countries: Canada, the United States, Spain, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Guatemala, and Germany. In contrast, the year 2023 saw a significant increase to 23 export destination countries, with the Netherlands, Spain, the United States of America, Chile, the United Kingdom, China, Japan, Hong Kong, and Russia leading the way.

The theoretical value of [32] is considered important for the present study, as it demonstrates the significance of international trade for the agricultural sector, particularly in rural areas. The study posits that agricultural products must promote sustainable economic development and improve the social conditions of rural communities.

In the present research, and as a result of the analysis of the data, it became evident that the main avocado export destinations in the period 2005–2023 increased from nine destinations in 2005 to twenty-three countries in the period 2023, due to the significant importance of the avocado product. These findings are consistent with the conclusions of [38], who observed a sustained increase in shipments to Europe, while other markets, such as Asia and America, have exhibited less dynamism. The Peruvian avocado has consolidated its position in Europe, attributable to its competitive advantages, including its quality and the international certifications obtained.

As demonstrated in Figure 4, between 2005 and 2023, Peru’s agricultural sector exhibited variability in its developmental trajectory. The most significant advancements in the agricultural sector were observed in 2005 (8.93%), followed by 2008 (8.36%) and 2018 (7.69%), contrasting with the comparatively modest growth recorded in 2009 (2.05%), 2014 (1.57%), and a pronounced decline in 2023 (−2.42%), which exceeded the impact of the pandemic (−1.03%).

The findings of this study are in alignment with the conclusions of Ref. [41] research, which posits that agricultural exports have been instrumental in the economic development of the nation, as evidenced by the ongoing incorporation of products that have garnered the attention of global markets.

This allows for the inference of the important characteristics that the sector has for the economic development of the country and that allows the generation of foreign currency and the development of employment in rural areas that promotes economic and social inclusion. Considering that Peruvian agricultural products have been demanded in the international market for the quality of the products and the need for a boost to strengthen local economies and promote the development of infrastructure as an engine of growth, it is an essential pillar for sustainability.

5. Conclusions

This study provides evidence that avocado exports have a positive and significant impact on Peru’s economic growth, contributing 0.40% to per capita gross domestic product for every 1% increase in export volume, with a 97% confidence level. This finding, supported by a robust Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) econometric model and validated through multicollinearity, homoscedasticity, and residual normality tests, underscores the strategic role of the agro-export sector as a driver of national development.

The research offers critical empirical evidence on how the integration of non-traditional products, such as avocados, strengthens the global competitiveness of emerging economies while generating employment, diversifying markets, and boosting agricultural GDP.

To maximize socioeconomic benefits and ensure the sector’s sustainability, the following priority actions are proposed:

Sustainable resource management: Implement comprehensive policies to mitigate water scarcity and soil degradation by promoting efficient agricultural practices and innovative irrigation technologies. This will reduce the environmental risks associated with crop expansion.

Inclusion of small producers: Develop training programs, access to financing, and technical assistance for small farmers, facilitating their integration into formal value chains and improving their profitability despite high production costs.

Adoption of technology and certifications: Encourage investment in R&D to optimize avocado productivity and quality, along with obtaining international certifications (e.g., organic, fair trade) to expand access to premium markets.

Market diversification: Strengthen trade agreements with emerging economies in Asia and Africa, leveraging the growing demand for healthy products while reducing dependence on traditional markets such as Europe and the U.S.

Institutional strengthening: Improve logistical infrastructure (e.g., ports, refrigeration) and coordination between public and private actors to respond swiftly to price fluctuations and international demand.

This study not only quantifies the relationship between avocado exports and economic growth but also identifies critical challenges such as the marginalization of small producers and pressure on natural resources. These findings serve as valuable input for designing evidence-based policies aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 8 and 12). Furthermore, the research highlights the need to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability and social equity, laying the groundwork for future studies on inclusive agro-export models in the context of climate change. While avocados are emerging as a catalyst for Peru’s development, their full potential can only be realized through integrated strategies that prioritize sustainability, innovation, and social justice.