The Impact of Corporate ESG Performance on Supply Chain Resilience: A Mediation Analysis Based on New Quality Productive Forces
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- 1.
- Factor Structure: Data and intellectual capital supplant traditional inputs as dominant drivers.
- 2.
- Operational Mechanisms: Disruptive innovations in production processes emerge through advanced technologies such as digital systems and generative artificial intelligence.
- 3.
- Value Orientation: A dual emphasis on economic efficiency and ecological sustainability replaces singular profit maximization.
- 1.
- Overemphasis on Traditional Resource Allocation: Existing mediation mechanisms predominantly focus on the allocation of conventional production factors (e.g., capital, labor), neglecting the mediating role of new quality productive forces—a paradigm driven by technological innovation and characterized by green, digital, and networked features.
- 2.
- Static Evaluation Frameworks: Current assessments of supply chain resilience rely heavily on static structural indicators, failing to adequately capture dynamic processual dimensions such as preventive, adaptive, and restorative capabilities.
2. Literature Review
2.1. Research on Corporate ESG Performance
2.2. Research on Supply Chain Resilience
- 1.
- Measurement System Dilemma: Current approaches are trapped in a “structure–performance” dichotomy. While structural indicators facilitate quantification, they fail to capture the dynamic “prevention–adaptation–recovery” continuum, whereas simulation-based performance metrics lack cross-context comparability, resulting in deviations between resilience assessments and actual risk resistance capabilities.
- 2.
- Technological Determinism Bias: Studies emphasize singular pathways like digital technologies or government effectiveness, neglecting to integrate the institutional embeddedness of ESG practices with technological adaptability. This oversight creates a partial understanding of resilience drivers.
- 3.
- Fragmented ESG–Supply Chain Linkages: Research either narrowly examines unilateral supplier management effects (Chen 2023) [37] or focuses solely on power restructuring (Li 2023) [38], failing to establish a systematic mediation model with new quality productive forces as the conduit. These theoretical gaps provide the entry point for our mediation model.
3. Theoretical Analysis and Research Hypotheses
3.1. The Direct Impact of Corporate ESG Performance on Supply Chain Resilience
3.2. The Mediating Role of New Quality Productive Forces
4. Research Design
4.1. Variable Description
4.1.1. Dependent Variable: Supply Chain Resilience (Resilience)
4.1.2. Independent Variable: Corporate ESG Performance (ESG)
4.1.3. Mechanism Variable: New Quality Productive Forces (NQPFs)
4.1.4. Control Variables
- Firm Size (Size): Natural logarithm of total assets, where “total assets” is measured in billions of yuan (CNY).
- Listing Age (ListAge): Natural logarithm of the number of years since the company’s initial public offering (IPO).
- Return on Assets (ROA): Ratio of total profit to total assets.
- Asset–Liability Ratio (Leverage): Ratio of total liabilities to total assets.
- Top One Shareholder Ownership (Top1): Proportion of shares held by the largest shareholder relative to the company’s total shares.
- Firm Growth (Growth): Year-on-year growth rate of operating revenue.
- Tobin’s Q (TobinQ): (Market value of tradable shares + Number of non-tradable shares × Net asset value per share + Book value of liabilities)/Total assets.
- Cash Flow Ratio (Cashflow): Net cash flow divided by total assets.
4.2. Data Sources and Descriptive Statistics
4.3. Model Specification
4.3.1. Baseline Regression Model
4.3.2. Mediation Model
5. Empirical Results and Analysis
5.1. Baseline Regression Results
- Column (1): Presents the regression results without control variables and fixed effects.
- Column (2): Includes industry and year fixed effects.
- Column (3): Further incorporates multiple control variables.
5.2. Robustness Tests
5.2.1. Replacing the Explanatory Variable
5.2.2. Expanding the Sample Size
5.2.3. Adding Control Variables
5.2.4. Hausman Tests
5.3. Endogeneity Tests
5.4. Mediation Effect Analysis
5.5. Heterogeneity Analysis
6. Conclusions and Recommendations
6.1. Conclusions
6.2. Recommendations
- 1.
- Building a “Double Carbon”-Oriented ESG Policy Toolkit
- (1)
- Carbon Footprint-Driven ESG Rating System: The government should revise the current ESG evaluation standards, incorporate the carbon emission intensity throughout the supply chain lifecycle into core indicators, and set up a tiered reward and punishment mechanism. For example, enterprises that achieve annual carbon reduction targets will be given a 20% increase in green bond issuance quotas (referring to the EU’s Sustainable Finance Classification Scheme), while enterprises that fail to meet the standards will face supply chain financing restrictions.
- (2)
- “Zero-Carbon Supply Chain” Pilot Project for State-Owned Enterprises: Relying on leading state-owned enterprises, establish zero-carbon supply chain demonstration zones in key industries, requiring them to achieve 100% carbon audit coverage for first-tier suppliers, and develop a blockchain-based carbon data sharing platform to provide replicable technical templates for private enterprises.
- 2.
- Digital Transformation Empowering the Deepening of ESG Practices
- (1)
- Construction of Supply Chain Digital Twin System: The government supports enterprises in building supply chain digital twin models through special funds to simulate key ESG indicators such as carbon emissions and resource consumption in real time.
- (2)
- AI-Driven ESG Decision Optimization: Encourage enterprises to use generative artificial intelligence to analyze supply chain ESG data and automatically generate supplier risk assessment reports and emission reduction path plans. Enterprises that adopt such technologies will be given a research and development expense additional deduction ratio increased to 150% as a tax incentive.
- 3.
- Differentiated Policy Design: Solving the Bottlenecks in Private Enterprises’ ESG Implementation
- (1)
- “Double Carbon” Special Financing Channel: The People’s Bank of China will set up a green re-lending tool for private enterprises, providing preferential loans with an interest rate 50 basis points lower than the loan market quotation rate for small- and medium-sized enterprises that pass ESG certification, while allowing their carbon quotas to be used as collateral.
- (2)
- State-Owned Enterprise–Private Enterprise Green Technology Alliance: Mandate that state-owned enterprises open up ESG technology sharing platforms in national economic and technological development zones, and private enterprises can use relevant patents for free in the form of “innovation vouchers” to promote technological spillover.
- 4.
- Institutional Guarantees: Strengthening Regulatory and Market Coordination
- (1)
- ESG Data Governance Legislation: Clarify the collection standards and accountability mechanisms for environmental and social responsibility data of supply chain enterprises in China’s Corporate Sustainable Disclosure Standards—Basic Standards, and implement a “one-vote veto system” for enterprises with data fraud.
- (2)
- Carbon Tariff Response Fund: The Ministry of Commerce will take the lead in establishing a “Cross-Border Supply Chain Carbon Tariff Compensation Fund”, providing a 50% subsidy for the compliance costs incurred by export enterprises due to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and funding their participation in the formulation of international ESG standards to enhance their voice.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Target Layer | First-Level Indicators | Second-Level Indicators | Indicator Description |
---|---|---|---|
Supply Chain Resilience | Preventive Capability | Fund Occupancy | Natural logarithm of the ratio of accounts receivable to revenue |
Customer Concentration | Ratio of sales to the top five customers to total annual sales | ||
Supplier Concentration | Ratio of purchases from the top five suppliers to total annual purchases | ||
Adaptive Capability | Customer Stability | Number of overlapping top five customers compared to the previous year, divided by five | |
Supplier Stability | Number of overlapping top five suppliers compared to the previous year, divided by five | ||
Restorative Capability | Product Flow | Inventory turnover ratio of the enterprise | |
Performance Volatility | Sensitivity index of economic performance |
Variable | N | Mean | SD | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Supply Chain Resilience | 5607.00 | 0.48 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.86 |
ESG | 5607.00 | 0.73 | 0.05 | 0.59 | 0.84 |
NQPF | 5607.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Size | 5607.00 | 22.56 | 1.09 | 20.34 | 25.76 |
Lev | 5607.00 | 0.42 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.83 |
ROA | 5607.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 | −0.17 | 0.21 |
Cashflow | 5607.00 | 0.05 | 0.06 | −0.12 | 0.23 |
Growth | 5607.00 | 0.13 | 0.31 | −0.49 | 1.86 |
Top1 | 5607.00 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.71 |
TobinQ | 5607.00 | 1.93 | 1.15 | 0.00 | 6.80 |
ListAge1 | 5607.00 | 2.57 | 0.46 | 1.39 | 3.37 |
Variable | (1) | (2) | (3) |
---|---|---|---|
Resil | Resil | Resil | |
ESG | 0.229 *** (0.031) | 0.235 *** (0.031) | 0.153 *** (0.033) |
Size | 0.006 *** (0.002) | ||
ListAge | −0.029 *** (0.004) | ||
ROA | 0.085 ** (0.036) | ||
Leverage | −0.017 (0.012) | ||
Top1 | −0.006 (0.012) | ||
Growth | 0.038 *** (0.006) | ||
TobinQ | 0.003 * (0.002) | ||
Cashflow | 0.112 *** (0.029) | ||
Cons | 0.312 *** (0.023) | 0.293 *** (0.026) | 0.265 *** (0.043) |
Controls | NO | NO | YES |
Year | NO | YES | YES |
Industry | NO | YES | YES |
N | 5607 | 5607 | 5607 |
R2 | 0.009 | 0.084 | 0.116 |
Variable | Resilience | ||
---|---|---|---|
(1) Replacing the Explanatory Variable | (2) Expanding the Sample Size | (3) Adding Control Variables | |
ESG | - | 0.163 *** (0.031) | 0.146 *** (0.033) |
ESG (new) | 0.007 *** (0.002) | - | - |
Size | 0.007 *** (0.002) | 0.006 *** (0.002) | 0.007 *** (0.002) |
ListAge | −0.029 *** (0.004) | −0.022 *** (0.004) | −0.029 *** (0.004) |
ROA | 0.087 ** (0.036) | 0.075 ** (0.034) | 0.093 ** (0.036) |
Leverage | −0.018 (0.012) | −0.021 * (0.011) | −0.018 (0.012) |
Top1 | −0.006 (0.012) | −0.007 (0.011) | −0.008 (0.012) |
Growth | 0.038 *** (0.006) | 0.034 *** (0.005) | 0.038 *** (0.006) |
TobinQ | 0.003 * (0.002) | 0.004 ** (0.001) | 0.003 (0.002) |
Cashflow | 0.112 *** (0.029) | 0.125 *** (0.026) | 0.113 *** (0.029) |
Board | - | - | −0.006 (0.009) |
Indep | - | - | 0.074 ** (0.030) |
Cons | 0.344 *** (0.042) | 0.217 *** (0.039) | 0.252 *** (0.048) |
Controls | YES | YES | YES |
Year | YES | YES | YES |
Industry | YES | YES | YES |
N | 5607 | 6853 | 5607 |
R2 | 0.116 | 0.125 | 0.117 |
Variable | First-Stage | Second-Stage |
---|---|---|
ESG | 0.169 *** (0.056) | |
L1.ESG | 0.615 *** (0.016) | |
L2.ESG | 0.031 ** (0.014) | |
Cons | 0.119 *** (0.016) | 0.260 *** (0.049) |
Controls | YES | YES |
Year | YES | YES |
Industry | YES | YES |
N | 4361 | 4361 |
First-Stage F-statistic | 1282.56 | |
Kleibergen–Paap LM Test | 933.56 *** | |
Cragg–Donald Wald F-statistic | 1623.90 | |
Anderson–Rubin Wald Test | 5.41 *** |
Variable | Resil | NQPF | Resil |
---|---|---|---|
ESG | 0.153 *** (0.033) | 0.008 *** (0.002) | 0.148 *** (0.033) |
NQPF | - | - | 0.541 *** (0.191) |
Cons | 0.265 *** (0.043) | 0.021 *** (0.003) | 0.254 *** (0.044) |
Controls | YES | YES | YES |
Year | YES | YES | YES |
Industry | YES | YES | YES |
N | 5607 | 5607 | 5607 |
R2 | 0.116 | 0.457 | 0.117 |
Sobel test | 2.225 |
Variable | Resil | NQPF | Resil |
---|---|---|---|
ESG | 0.157 *** (0.033) | 0.006 *** (0.002) | 0.153 *** (0.033) |
NQPF | - | - | 0.630 *** (0.196) |
RD | −0.001 *** (0.000) | 0.000 *** (0.000) | −0.001 *** (0.000) |
Cons | 0.260 *** (0.043) | 0.024 *** (0.003) | 0.244 *** (0.044) |
Controls | YES | YES | YES |
Year | YES | YES | YES |
Industry | YES | YES | YES |
N | 5607 | 5607 | 5607 |
R2 | 0.116 | 0.477 | 0.118 |
Variable | SOEs | Non-SOEs |
---|---|---|
ESG | 0.268 *** (0.067) | 0.108 *** (0.039) |
Cons | 0.170 ** (0.080) | 0.314 *** (0.055) |
Controls | YES | YES |
Year | YES | YES |
Industry | YES | YES |
N | 1766 | 3841 |
R2 | 0.176 | 0.121 |
Chow Test | 3.28 | |
p-value | 0.042 |
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Yuan, Y.; Dai, H.; Ma, J. The Impact of Corporate ESG Performance on Supply Chain Resilience: A Mediation Analysis Based on New Quality Productive Forces. Sustainability 2025, 17, 4418. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17104418
Yuan Y, Dai H, Ma J. The Impact of Corporate ESG Performance on Supply Chain Resilience: A Mediation Analysis Based on New Quality Productive Forces. Sustainability. 2025; 17(10):4418. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17104418
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuan, Yuan, Hong Dai, and Jiaqi Ma. 2025. "The Impact of Corporate ESG Performance on Supply Chain Resilience: A Mediation Analysis Based on New Quality Productive Forces" Sustainability 17, no. 10: 4418. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17104418
APA StyleYuan, Y., Dai, H., & Ma, J. (2025). The Impact of Corporate ESG Performance on Supply Chain Resilience: A Mediation Analysis Based on New Quality Productive Forces. Sustainability, 17(10), 4418. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17104418