Study on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Survival Dynamic Evolution of Specialized Farmers’ Cooperatives and the Influencing Factors of Underdeveloped Areas in China—Taking Yunnan Province as an Example
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Overview of the Study Place
3.2. Data Sources
3.3. Research Methodology
3.3.1. Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis
3.3.2. Survival Analysis
- Kaplan–Meier method
- 2.
- Cox proportional risk model
- 3.
- Schoenfeld’s residual robustness test
3.3.3. Kernel Density Estimate
4. Spatial and Temporal Evolution of the Survival and Development of Cooperatives
4.1. Temporal Evolution of Cooperative Survival and Development
4.2. Spatial Evolution of Cooperatives
4.2.1. Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis
4.2.2. Kernel Density Analysis
5. Factors Affecting the Survival of Cooperatives
5.1. Variable Selection
- Organizational characteristics. Studies have shown that the organizational characteristics of cooperatives affect their survival and development [38,39]. Asset size affects performance; large-scale cooperatives have more resource funds and are more risk-resistant. Informatization is key, including training in digital technology. Relevance reflects embeddedness; high relevance makes it easy to obtain support for resource sharing. Asset size, relevance, and informatization indicators are selected and expressed in terms of paid-in capital, associated economic organizations, and website construction, respectively;
- Stage evolution. Related studies show that the establishment time has a chronological effect, and the development trajectory and experience accumulation affect the long-term development [40]. The initial policy intent is to promote rural vitality by relying on the operation of farmers, etc. and the later support goal is to support the large-scale operation of land, etc. Accordingly, this paper is divided into four stages to depict the evolution of cooperatives in Yunnan;
- Technological innovations. Studies have shown that the survival expectation of enterprises with strong innovative capacity is superior, significantly affecting the duration of survival [41]. Cooperatives that promote the application of technology can improve the quality of agricultural products and yield benefits. Therefore, this study measured the innovation capacity of cooperatives by the number of patents and registered trademarks. (See Table 4 for specific definitions).
5.2. Regression Results
5.3. Robustness Check
6. Spatial and Temporal Differences in the Survival of Cooperatives in Different Regions
7. Conclusions
- Cooperatives in Yunnan Province have shown an evolutionary trend of spatial agglomeration from “high-high” to “low-high”. Initially, cooperatives in Yunnan Province were mainly located in Kunming, Yuxi, Qujing, and other large cities in central Yunnan, with a single-center structure and a high degree of concentration of functions in the central region, showing a significant siphoning effect. Later, due to economic restructuring, regional policy guidance, infrastructure improvement, and changes in the external economic environment, cooperatives in Yunnan Province have gradually evolved from a single-center development to a multi-center-, multi-industry-driven pattern. This evolutionary trend with multi-center structure to a certain extent integrates the agglomeration advantages of large regions and the dispersal advantages of small regions, in addition to Kunming and its surrounding areas, to enhance the radiation capacity and continue to gather; then, in western Yunnan, Province and southern Yunnan Province, this gradually constitutes a new sub-core area to open up the regional economic development “meridian”; then, in the new core, the new core area is formed into a high-density gathering area for cooperatives;
- The stage of cooperative establishment in Yunnan Province exhibits a clear year-round effect due to the tilting of cooperative cultivation and development policies. The cooperatives in stage one survived the longest, significantly longer than the cooperatives in the other three stages. The survival rate of cooperatives in stage 2 declined significantly, and the survival time was lower than that of stage 1. The survival time of cooperatives in stage 3 and stage 4 was roughly similar, but the survival rate of cooperatives in stage 4 was significantly higher than that of those in stage 3. This shows that cooperatives established in the early stage have a learning curve effect after their accumulation and then accept the baptism of the market with a strong survival toughness. The cooperatives established at a later stage are constrained in their survival and development due to the lack of talent, shortage of capital, insufficient market development ability, and low brand awareness;
- The factors of “organizational characteristics and technological innovation” all have a significant positive effect on the survival time of cooperatives in Yunnan Province, while the factor of “stage of establishment” harms it. Among them, increasing investment in fixed assets and enhancing asset size can help improve the risk resistance of cooperatives and significantly increase the survival time of cooperatives. Enhancing the degree of association with other market entities helps to improve the cooperative’s ability to extend the industrial chain, further increasing the probability of survival. Technological innovation has been showing a significant positive correlation with the survival time of cooperatives in Yunnan Province, in which the influence of trademarks is greater than that of patents, which reduces the survival risk in the fierce market competition;
- The role of organizational characteristics and technological innovations on the survival time of cooperatives in Yunnan Province has changed over time. The learning curve effect persisted relative to cooperatives established at an earlier stage, and cooperatives established at a later stage faced more severe survival conditions. In organizational characteristics, the effect of asset size on the survival time of cooperatives diminished as the establishment stage advanced; however, the effect of relatedness was always maintained at a stable level. In technological innovation, the impact of trademarks on the survival time of cooperatives appears to be weakening, indicating that the survival and development of cooperatives rely more and more on their own accumulation and market resilience performance;
- The survival and development of cooperatives in Yunnan Province have gradually revealed a differentiated geographical pattern. From the analysis of the overall survival space agglomeration trend, cooperatives with a longer survival period were mainly concentrated in central Yunnan and northeastern Yunnan, while the “high-high” agglomeration area was often adjacent to the “high-low” agglomeration area and showed a trend of gradual expansion to southern Yunnan and northwestern Yunnan. The trend was to expand gradually to southern Yunnan and northwestern Yunnan. Further analysis reveals that cooperatives in Yunnan Province are increasingly clustering in minority autonomous counties and specialty industry zones, and the “low-high” clustering areas are showing good development. The survival time of cooperatives in all cities (states) of Yunnan Province is affected by multiple factors, such as asset size, degree of association, industrial integration, and industrial policies, but the level of informatization and patent status does not have a significant effect on them.
8. Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Basis of Delineation | Time Node | Main Features |
---|---|---|
Policy evolution | Stage I (2000–2006) | National level: Opinions on Several Policies on Further Strengthening Rural Work and Improving Comprehensive Agricultural Production Capacity; Provincial level: Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Farmers’ Professional Cooperative Organizations |
Stage II (2007–2012) | National level: Law of the People’s Republic of China on Farmers’ Specialized Cooperatives; Provincial level: Circular on Accelerating the Development of Farmers’ Specialized Cooperatives | |
Stage III (2013–2017) | National level: Opinions on Guiding and Promoting the Standardized Development of Specialized Farmers’ Cooperatives; Provincial level: Opinions of the People’s Government of Yunnan Province on Promoting the Standardized Development of Specialized Farmers’ Cooperatives | |
Stage IV (2018–2023) | National level: Several Opinions on Carrying Out Actions to Standardize and Enhance Specialized Farmers’ Cooperatives; Provincial level: Yunnan Provincial 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Quality Enhancement of Specialized Farmers’ Cooperatives (2021–2025) |
Brochure | Average Survival Time (Years) | Percentage of Survival Time (%) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1–5 Years | 6–10 Years | 11–15 Years | 16–20 Years | More Than 20 Years | ||
Exit | 8.01 | 10.8 | 53.4 | 34.1 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
Entry | 11.16 | 2.4 | 26.2 | 55.9 | 13.3 | 2.2 |
All | 9.85 | 5.2 | 35.5 | 48.5 | 9.3 | 1.5 |
Index | Stage I | Stage II | Stage III | Stage IV |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moran’s I | 0.086 | 0.363 | 0.264 | 0.334 |
p-value | 0.061 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Z-score | 1.872 | 7.336 | 5.308 | 6.814 |
Indexes | Variables | Variable Symbols | Variable Definitions |
---|---|---|---|
Organizational features | Assets | Ass | Paid-in capital plus 1 to take the logarithm |
Correlation | Cor | Number of associated other economic organizations plus 1 to take logarithmic values | |
Informatization | Inf | Site established = 1, no site established = 0 | |
Stage evolution | Foundation stage | Sta | Stage 1 = 1, stage 2 = 2, stage 3 = 3, stage 4 = 4 |
Technological innovations | Patents | Pat | The number of patents plus 1 to take the logarithm |
Trademarks | Tra | Logarithmic number of trademarks plus 1 | |
Control variables | Geographic area | Are | Central Yunnan = 1, northeastern Yunnan = 2, northwestern Yunnan = 3, southern Yunnan = 4 |
Industrial integration | Int | Agricultural business only = 1; agricultural and industrial or agricultural and service business = 2; agricultural, industrial, and service business = 3 | |
Industrial policy | Pol | Received policy subsidies or honors = 1, no = 0 | |
Market competition | Com | Logarithm of the number of cooperatives in the region |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) Stage 1 | (6) Stage 2 | (7) Stage 3 | (8) Stage 4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ass | 1.080 *** | 1.062 *** | 1.127 | 1.045 ** | 1.047 | 0.951 | ||
(0.017) | (0.017) | (0.095) | (0.020) | (0.041) | (0.120) | |||
Cor | 0.717 *** | 0.751 *** | 0.668 | 0.728 *** | 0.850 ** | 0.805 | ||
(0.041) | (0.041) | (0.315) | (0.053) | (0.074) | (0.236) | |||
Inf | 0.584 | 0.670 | 1.000 | 0.596 | 0.840 | 0.000 | ||
(0.356) | (0.356) | (.) | (0.502) | (0.505) | (1.8 × 109) | |||
Sta | 1.719 *** | 1.682 *** | ||||||
(0.049) | (0.049) | |||||||
Pat | 0.238 * | 0.229 * | 1.000 | 0.428 | 0.000 | 1.700 × 1023 | ||
(0.761) | (0.774) | (.) | (0.719) | (4.93 × 107) | (1.07 × 109) | |||
Tra | 0.384 *** | 0.396 *** | 1.380 | 0.352 *** | 0.527 *** | 0.000 | ||
(0.088) | (0.088) | (0.671) | (0.112) | (0.145) | (3.15 × 108) | |||
Are | 1.294 *** | 1.347 *** | 1.317 *** | 1.343 *** | 1.303 | 1.359 *** | 1.445 *** | 0.576 * |
(0.032) | (0.033) | (0.032) | (0.033) | (0.173) | (0.039) | (0.071) | (0.315) | |
Int | 0.927 | 0.855 *** | 1.041 | 0.940 | 4.284 *** | 0.944 | 0.647 *** | 0.312 *** |
(0.053) | (0.055) | (0.052) | (0.056) | (0.322) | (0.071) | (0.119) | (0.422) | |
Pol | 0.162 *** | 0.136 *** | 0.191 *** | 0.174 *** | 1.000 | 0.182 *** | 0.198 *** | 0.000 |
(0.134) | (0.134) | (0.134) | (0.135) | (.) | (0.194) | (0.190) | (3.46 × 108) | |
Com | 1.442 | 1.340 | 1.474 * | 1.338 | 0.965 | 1.322 | 1.156 | 4.05 × 104 ** |
(0.231) | (0.236) | (0.232) | (0.238) | (1.537) | (0.271) | (0.543) | (4.248) | |
N | 3194 | 3194 | 3194 | 3194 | 78 | 1694 | 1139 | 283 |
LRchi2 | 576.14 | 603.11 | 671.84 | 851.55 | 56.63 | 491.72 | 271.12 | 87.43 |
Indexes | ρ | chi2 | Prob > chi2 | ρ | chi2 | Prob > chi2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model 1 | Model 2 | |||||
Ass | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.981 | |||
Cor | 0.034 | 1.830 | 0.176 | |||
Inf | −0.039 | 2.010 | 0.156 | |||
Sta | −0.265 | 77.380 | 0.000 | |||
Pat | ||||||
Tra | ||||||
Are | −0.007 | 0.080 | 0.783 | −0.043 | 2.690 | 0.101 |
Int | 0.125 | 17.240 | 0.000 | 0.155 | 30.100 | 0.000 |
Pol | 0.005 | 0.030 | 0.867 | 0.030 | 1.220 | 0.279 |
Com | −0.051 | 3.940 | 0.047 | −0.042 | 2.830 | 0.093 |
27.310 | 0.000 | 103.510 | 0.000 | |||
Indexes | ρ | chi2 | Prob > chi2 | ρ | chi2 | Prob > chi2 |
Model 3 | Model 4 | |||||
Ass | 0.048 | 3.070 | 0.080 | |||
Cor | 0.023 | 0.780 | 0.377 | |||
Inf | −0.039 | 2.000 | 0.157 | |||
Sta | −0.252 | 67.980 | 0.000 | |||
Pat | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.978 | 0.003 | 0.020 | 0.880 |
Tra | 0.016 | 0.440 | 0.507 | 0.008 | 0.110 | 0.745 |
Are | −0.001 | 0.000 | 0.979 | −0.035 | 1.820 | 0.177 |
Int | 0.137 | 20.170 | 0.000 | 0.148 | 27.050 | 0.000 |
Pol | 0.006 | 0.050 | 0.830 | 0.026 | 0.940 | 0.332 |
Com | −0.055 | 4.610 | 0.032 | −0.041 | 2.720 | 0.099 |
28.58 | 0.000 | 97.120 | 0.000 | |||
Indexes | ρ | chi2 | Prob > chi2 | ρ | chi2 | Prob > chi2 |
Model 5 (Stage 1) | Model 6 (Stage 2) | |||||
Ass | −0.172 | 1.700 | 0.192 | 0.012 | 0.120 | 0.733 |
Cor | 0.042 | 0.060 | 0.803 | 0.062 | 3.760 | 0.053 |
Inf | −0.010 | 0.080 | 0.776 | |||
Sta | ||||||
Pat | −0.020 | 0.540 | 0.461 | |||
Tra | −0.040 | 0.110 | 0.744 | 0.041 | 1.570 | 0.210 |
Are | 0.022 | 0.020 | 0.884 | −0.043 | 1.720 | 0.190 |
Int | 0.514 | 10.450 | 0.001 | 0.014 | 0.180 | 0.670 |
Pol | 0.016 | 0.210 | 0.644 | |||
Com | 0.169 | 0.790 | 0.373 | −0.035 | 1.140 | 0.286 |
11.510 | 0.074 | 11.170 | 0.264 | |||
Indexes | ρ | chi2 | Prob > chi2 | ρ | chi2 | Prob > chi2 |
Model 7 (Stage 3) | Model 8 (Stage 4) | |||||
Ass | 0.108 | 4.730 | 0.030 | 0.018 | 0.010 | 0.925 |
Cor | 0.134 | 8.270 | 0.004 | −0.018 | 0.020 | 0.895 |
Inf | −0.096 | 3.480 | 0.062 | 0.116 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
Sta | ||||||
Pat | −0.066 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.298 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
Tra | 0.004 | 0.010 | 0.921 | −0.222 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
Are | 0.075 | 2.520 | 0.113 | 0.114 | 0.340 | 0.558 |
Int | −0.071 | 1.950 | 0.163 | −0.290 | 1.840 | 0.175 |
Pol | 0.085 | 2.860 | 0.091 | −0.084 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
Com | −0.111 | 7.860 | 0.005 | −0.156 | 0.900 | 0.343 |
30.580 | 0.000 | 2.660 | 0.976 |
Central Yunnan | Northeastern Yunnan | Northwestern Yunnan | Southern Yunnan | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Process of spatio-temporal aggregation | In the main core and “high–high” agglomeration areas in the early stages of development, with a gradual decrease in nuclear density | Slow increase in nuclear density, extensive low-value areas | Diversification of agglomeration characteristics and gradual clustering of core areas | Changes in nuclear density have flattened out, and the pattern of development has changed little |
Influencing factors | Convenient transportation and well-developed economy | Complex natural conditions, low economic level, need for policy support | Rich in ethnic specialty agricultural products, poor transportation, weak economy, highly influenced by policies | Suitable climate, influenced by policy |
Brochure | Average Survival Time (Years) | Percentage of Survival Time (%) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1–5 Years | 6–10 Years | 11–15 Years | 16–20 Years | More Than 20 Years | ||
Central Yunnan | 10.92 | 3.7 | 26.0 | 55.1 | 14.8 | 0.4 |
Northeastern Yunnan | 10.50 | 3.0 | 32.9 | 51.2 | 11.1 | 1.8 |
Northwestern Yunnan | 9.15 | 7.6 | 37.3 | 47.1 | 6.9 | 1.1 |
Southern Yunnan | 9.88 | 4.6 | 38.6 | 46.1 | 8.4 | 2.3 |
Ethnic autonomous counties | 9.69 | 5.5 | 37.2 | 48.8 | 7.7 | 0.8 |
Non-ethnic autonomous counties | 10.10 | 4.8 | 32.4 | 48.1 | 12.0 | 2.7 |
Central Yunnan | Northeastern Yunnan | Northwestern Yunnan | Southern Yunnan | Ethnic Autonomous Counties | Non-Ethnic Autonomous Counties | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ass | 0.870 | 0.578 *** | 0.765 *** | 0.748 *** | 0.689 *** | 0.791 *** |
(0.132) | (0.152) | (0.075) | (0.057) | (0.069) | (0.052) | |
Cor | 2.077 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.462 | 1.201 | 0.473 |
(0.611) | (3.68 × 108) | (2.33 × 107) | (0.453) | (0.519) | (0.502) | |
Inf | 1.207 *** | 1.146 * | 1.033 | 1.023 | 1.117 *** | 1.025 |
(0.055) | (0.057) | (0.033) | (0.025) | (0.028) | (0.023) | |
Sta | 1.443 * | 1.315 | 1.839 *** | 1.745 *** | 1.349 *** | 1.927 *** |
(0.202) | (0.195) | (0.079) | (0.079) | (0.091) | (0.061) | |
Loc | 0.773 ** | 1.344 *** | ||||
(0.120) | (0.044) | |||||
Tra | 0.245 *** | 0.202 *** | 0.358 *** | 0.447 *** | 0.378 *** | 0.417 *** |
(0.329) | (0.380) | (0.186) | (0.110) | (0.160) | (0.105) | |
Pat | 2.370 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.889 | 0.000 |
(0.716) | (4.27 × 108) | (2.04 × 107) | (3.29 × 107) | (0.753) | (5.62 × 106) | |
Ind | 0.739 | 1.528 ** | 0.787 ** | 0.930 | 1.405 *** | 0.725 *** |
(0.204) | (0.168) | (0.114) | (0.075) | (0.088) | (0.073) | |
Pol | 0.134 *** | 0.109 *** | 0.266 *** | 0.150 *** | 0.126 *** | 0.193 *** |
(0.363) | (0.595) | (0.250) | (0.190) | (0.244) | (0.162) | |
Com | 0.000 *** | 8.873 | 21.585 ** | 1.738 ** | 249.136 *** | 0.660 * |
(2.013) | (2.284) | (1.400) | (0.256) | (1.026) | (0.252) | |
N | 484 | 356 | 1145 | 1209 | 1975 | 1187 |
LRchi2 | 110.87 | 96.57 | 230.63 | 373.46 | 565.41 | 370.37 |
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Xu, R.; Mai, Q. Study on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Survival Dynamic Evolution of Specialized Farmers’ Cooperatives and the Influencing Factors of Underdeveloped Areas in China—Taking Yunnan Province as an Example. Sustainability 2024, 16, 11256. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162411256
Xu R, Mai Q. Study on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Survival Dynamic Evolution of Specialized Farmers’ Cooperatives and the Influencing Factors of Underdeveloped Areas in China—Taking Yunnan Province as an Example. Sustainability. 2024; 16(24):11256. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162411256
Chicago/Turabian StyleXu, Ran, and Qiangsheng Mai. 2024. "Study on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Survival Dynamic Evolution of Specialized Farmers’ Cooperatives and the Influencing Factors of Underdeveloped Areas in China—Taking Yunnan Province as an Example" Sustainability 16, no. 24: 11256. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162411256
APA StyleXu, R., & Mai, Q. (2024). Study on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Survival Dynamic Evolution of Specialized Farmers’ Cooperatives and the Influencing Factors of Underdeveloped Areas in China—Taking Yunnan Province as an Example. Sustainability, 16(24), 11256. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162411256