Study on Changes in Comprehensive Land Prices for Expropriation Zones Based on Land Use Changes

Comprehensive land prices for expropriation zones can effectively alleviate many conflicts in China’s land expropriation practices. This contributes to achieving sustainable development goals such as “SDG-10: Reduced Inequalities” and “ SDG-11: Sustainable Cities and Communities”. The reasonable delineation of expropriation zones and scientific calculation of zone prices have become crucial. This study used the Cangzhou urban area in Hebei Province, China, as a case study. By integrating the CA–Markov model, multiple linear regression model, coupling coordination degree model, relative development degree model, and GIS spatial analysis techniques, the study deeply analyzed the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between land use and comprehensive land prices for expropriation zones from 2009 to 2021. Furthermore, it simulated and forecasted the changes in land use, expropriation zones, and zone prices in 2027. The study yielded the following conclusions: (1) The changes in land use reflected land economic value, land resource condition and land location condition shifts, which formed an interactive feedback mechanism with the comprehensive land price for land expropriation zones. (2) Land use impacted zone distribution through the spatial distribution characteristics of construction land, with recent development zones in the central urban area primarily extending east and southeast due to planning and policies related to land use for construction. (3) The coupling coordination and relative developmental degree between land use degree and zone price gradually develop in a good direction. A linear relationship is observed among land economic value, land resource condition, and land location condition concerning the zone price. Based on this, the predicted adjustment ranges for zone prices from high to low in 2027 will be 2.6400 to 2.7210, 2.1900 to 2.2537, and 1.8300 to 1.9306 million CNY/hectare. This study provides a new method for studying comprehensive land prices for expropriation zones, supporting decision making.