1. Introduction
In 2022 alone, the domestic transport sector was responsible for deploying more than 800,000 kt CO
2 eq in the European Union [
1]. Yet, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, after dropping during the COVID-19 pandemic, experienced growth in 2021 and 2022 [
1]. To stop climate change from becoming worse, actions must be taken to cut GHG significantly, to adapt to the changes happening now, and, in the future, to limit the damage [
2]. Therefore, to achieve the goal of reducing 90% of the greenhouse gas emissions from transport and for the European Union to become a climate-neutral economy by 2050, transport modes need to be more sustainable. Sustainable transport alternatives must be made widely available, and incentives to drive the transition should be put in place [
3].
The car is still the most common transport mode used for everyday mobility and for long-distance trips, with local car trips being longer than local trips made with alternative modes of transport [
4]. Diesel is still the fuel used for the largest share of urban displacements in countries such as Greece (86%) and Portugal (63%) [
5]. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to evaluate urban mobility while taking into consideration the reduction in fossil energy consumption in the transport sector [
6].
The widespread use of fossil fuels to power transport options also contributes to the increase in various respiratory diseases and allergies in drivers and the general inhabitants of any location [
7,
8,
9], which jeopardizes the well-being of the population, the competitiveness of urban areas, and the level of sustainability.
Hence, the re-establishment of sustainable mobility plans needs to thrive in the opposite direction so that society can move towards a low-carbon emission scenario. Urban mobility needs to thrive in different directions to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels, allowing the implementation of new sources of power for vehicles, such as the introduction of electric and hydrogen-powered cars and public transport [
10]. Despite the shift in the fuel used in vehicles, another efficient improvement that needs to be taken into consideration in cities is the promotion of clean public transport and the modal shift to active modes [
11]. To achieve this shift, it is necessary not only to change population attitudes but also fundamental social norms in order to support the implementation of new technical solutions, new behaviors, and new lifestyles [
12].
The change in people’s mobility behaviors to reduce the use of private cars is based on issues that go beyond economic efficiency and are part of the sustainability paradigm represented in politically challenging issues [
13]. Efficient and viable policy alternatives can therefore make a valuable contribution to resolving transport challenges [
14], with the design of low-carbon urban transport systems being a key element in creating low-carbon cities [
15]. However, with travel undergoing significant changes in recent decades, behavioral patterns have become increasingly complex and difficult to predict and manage [
16] and are an obstacle in the implementation of decarbonization policies for the sector.
In this context, the core duty of the transport system is to provide timely and safe forms of mobility under environmental protection that integrate different users’ expectations and evolutions, particularly for the young, elderly, and the most vulnerable road users (VRUs) [
17]. The provision of sustainable modes of transport is still one of the main drivers for socioeconomic and environmental development across the globe [
18]. The deployment of transport-related policies that take into consideration the built environment and social characteristics of the users is important to shape the behavior of the population and increase the usage of active modes of transport, which translates into the decline in fossil fuel vehicle usage [
19].
A large part of current research about the decarbonization of the transport sector focuses on the shift from polluting cars to electric or hydrogen-powered options to decrease GHG emissions into the atmosphere. Yet, there is still a lack of knowledge on the modal shift needed from polluting vehicles to active modes of transport to eradicate a certain level of GHG emissions. This could represent a decrease in the emissions of pollutants, which would assist municipalities and policymakers in setting goals for the use of active modes of transport depending on the degree of GHG reduction they need.
The current methodologies to estimate vehicle emissions into the atmosphere and possible reduction targets are based on the distance traveled, type of fuel, slope of the route, and fuel consumed [
20] and do not include the shift to sustainable (i.e., walking, cycling, public transport) modes of transport to achieve a reduction in GHG emissions caused by urban transport.
Therefore, this research work aims to provide a methodology to estimate the number of trips in different motorized transport modes to reach a certain targeted volume of GHG emissions. The main objective of this methodology is to estimate the number of vehicular trips that need to be shifted to sustainable modes of transport so that pollution is decreased to specified levels. The utilization of this methodology could assist policymakers in determining the modal share needed in cities to reach certain air pollution goals.
The remainder of this paper comprises an explanation of the advantages of transport decarbonization and shifting to active transportation modes in
Section 2, the methodology used in
Section 3, the results obtained from a case study in Portugal in
Section 4, and the discussion and conclusion in
Section 5.
2. Trends in Transport Decarbonization
The demand for transport will continue increasing in the coming decades, which will likely lead to a halt in the decrease in CO
2 emissions from this sector [
21]. Therefore, to meet the established emissions targets from the European Union, some key aspects need to change in urban mobility, such as the increase in the uptake of active modes that will lead to the reduction in air and noise pollution, improve public health and can lead to the increase in the livability of urban environments [
22].
The current literature tends to focus on the replacement of fuels for more sustainable options, as well as the introduction of electric-powered vehicles in the urban environment to cut GHG emissions. However, the policies and strategies for the reduction in CO
2 emissions in the transport sector need to go beyond the replacement of fossil-fueled vehicles for electric ones—specific measures on vehicles and transport volumes, modal shift, pricing, and cleaner electricity need to be applied so climate neutrality can be achieved [
23]. A recent study that evaluated the pathways to decarbonize the transport sector in four countries concluded that the current policies are insufficient to meet mobility demand and CO
2 reductions, so all relevant aspects of the avoid–shift–improve framework need to be considered [
24]. The application of the framework includes the improvement of the system efficiency through the reduced/avoided need to travel, a boost in the trip efficiency because of the shift to more environmentally friendly transport modes, and the rise in vehicle efficiency because of the improvement in the energy efficiency of transport modes and vehicle technology [
25].
A recent study performed in Brazil [
26] showed that even with the replacement of the bus fleet with hybrid electric–hydrogen fuel cell buses, there would be still pollution being emitted into the atmosphere, including NOx, PM
10, and CO
2. In addition, due to the slow replacement of urban vehicles with electric-powered ones, the benefits of the electrification of the transport sector would be felt only in a timeframe of approximately ten years [
27], which could jeopardize the targets set out by the European Union.
Therefore, some key aspects in the usage of the transport modes, such as the creation of a more extensive regional public transport network, the development of a full cycling network, and the promotion of an extensive car-free city center [
28] are seen as the next steps for the promotion of low-carbon cities. The introduction of these disruptive interventions in the urban transport system can stimulate dwellers to use more sustainable modes of transport, as it has been seen that even people with low intentions to change their behavior would be willing to do so if a sustainable option is presented to them [
12].
The introduction of cleaner-energy buses that have less noisy engines (e.g., electric buses) as new alternatives in cities would have a positive effect on people’s willingness to ride buses [
29]. Also, the provision of safe and connected infrastructure is effective in promoting an increase in active commuting, particularly cycling, which will be translated into the improved physical activity and enhancement of the well-being of the population [
30].
Establishing targets for the decarbonization of the transport sector is another way of reducing its harm on the environment. Public transport, which is considered a less polluting way of traveling, can be made more sustainable if fossil-fueled vehicles are replaced by electric ones. A pathway to the decarbonization of public transport was developed in Portugal to evaluate how long it would take to replace buses with electric vehicles, as well as the timeframe required to decrease CO
2 emissions. The results show that in fourteen years, all bus fleets in the country could be made electric, which would represent a decrease in half of the CO
2 emissions in the first five years of replacement alone [
31].
To cut emissions from the transport sector, the European Union adopted a law to make all new cars and vans sold in Europe zero-emission from 2035 [
32]. However, even if the power grid is also decarbonized, the effects of this action will only be felt in the long term due to the high number of fossil-fueled vehicles still present on European roads [
27]. Moreover, people must shift from individual motorized vehicles to public transport and active modes.
4. Case Study and Results
4.1. Urban Mobility in Braga
The city of Braga is located in the Cávado region, in the North of Portugal (
Figure 1), and by 2021 had a population of 193,324 inhabitants, which accounts for a population density of 1054.1 inhabitants/km
2 [
36]. In Braga, 68% of the population is between 15 years old and 64 years old, representing the active population in this location. These people spend on average 17.60 min every day traveling from their residence to their workplace or school, mostly by car (69.5%) [
36].
In the last decade, the usage of individual motorized vehicles has grown in the city of Braga. In 2011 (former census results), the modal share for cars in the city was 65.6% [
37], and in 2021, this percentage escalated to 69.7% [
36]. Also, there was a larger reduction in the use of public transport in the same period, from 11.7% in 2011 to 10.3% in 2021.
Figure 2 shows the differences in the usage of transport modes in Braga in 2001 and 2021.
The usage of sustainable modes of transport (e.g., bus and walking) in Braga has experienced a reduction in the past decade, while the usage of private cars has increased and continues to be the main mode of transport in the city. The massive usage of private individual cars is also reflected in the increase in CO
2 from road transport into the atmosphere. In Portugal, GHG emissions from the transport sector increased by more than 50% from 1990 to 2022 [
38]. In Braga, from 2015 to 2019, there was an increase of 8% in CO
2 emissions from road transport, which is contrary to the expected reduction of 40% in economy-wide GHG emissions from the transport sector by 2023 compared to the standard from 1990 [
39].
Figure 3 shows the CO
2 emissions from the transport sector in Braga in the years 2015, 2017, and 2019.
The road transport sector in Braga has been responsible for more than 70% of the total CO
2 emitted in 2019, which shows the importance of decarbonizing the sector to decrease air pollution. The growth that is observed in the usage of individual motorized vehicles in Braga reflects the increase in CO
2 emission in recent years, which could be minimized if public transport took a bigger share in commuter trips, as well as active transport modes that have experienced a reduction in usage in the last decade. Short-distance trips in Braga could account easily for active modes to improve mobility and decrease air pollution,
Table 4 presents the average duration of commuter trips in Braga.
More than 58% of the commuter trips in Braga take up to 15 min by car, which could be translated into a modal shift to micromobility, such as bicycles. Taking into consideration that the modal share for cars in this city is almost 70%, a large portion of these short trips that are made by cars could potentially be made by active modes of transport (e.g., walking and cycling) and public transport to increase road transport sustainability and to meet the targets for transport-related CO2 emissions.
Despite the current scenario of the massive usage of private vehicles in Braga, the municipality has encouraged the population to diversify their modes of transport to more sustainable options in order to decrease GHG emissions. One example of a successful program deployed in Braga was the “Bicification”, where bicycle users were economically encouraged to utilize bicycles to commute, which helped to increase the use of bicycles in the everyday trips of the population. Therefore, the current practices in the city to stimulate active modes, as well as the need to reduce private car use were crucial to select Braga as this case study, since the practices presented here can be replicated in different contexts.
4.2. Decarbonization Scenarios
Road transport is responsible for 96% of the transport emissions in Portugal, and car use accounts for 60% of the emissions in relation to the total for road transport [
41]. Therefore, there is a strategy to decarbonize the transport sector in Portugal by 2050, which comprises a growing adherence to the use of active transport modes and public transport. In 2050, it is expected that 8% to 14% of short-distance trips will be made by sustainable modes of transport to promote the decarbonization of the road transport sector in the referred country.
According to the methodology, only motorized modes of transport are responsible for CO
2 emissions. Therefore, the assessment of the municipalities’ contribution to the overall value of emissions is based on the National Inventory of Atmospheric Pollutants which presents the CO
2 emissions from the road transport sector in Braga [
40], as well as the commuter trips of the resident population (
Table 5).
Based on the reference values for CO
2 emissions for the road transport sector in Braga in the year 2021, it is possible to estimate the respective emissions for the target years of 2040 and 2050, according to the proposed reductions presented in
Table 3. Therefore,
Table 6 shows the road transport-related CO
2 emissions for Braga in the following target years.
Once the emission values for the city of Braga are known, it is possible to determine the reduction in CO2 emissions that this region will have to carry out, more specifically from 295,733 to 59,150 in 2040, that is, a reduction of 236,583 tonCO2. Therefore, for this reduction to be possible, it is necessary to estimate the number of trips in motorized transport (i.e., individual motorized vehicles and public transport) that will be translated into emissions of 59,150 tonCO2 in 2040, that is, the number of trips that have to be transferred from individual motorized vehicles to public transport and from individual motorized vehicle to active modes of transport.
Thus, for the reference year of 2021, the individual motorized vehicle emission factor (tonCO
2/trip) for Braga is 1.4, according to the estimates made in Equation (6):
Regarding the information provided for the year reference of 2021, the emissions factor (
fi) of 1.4 tonCO
2/year, and considering that the
fi remains the same from 2021 to 2040, then, for this year, the following expression was used to estimate the volume of trips in individual motorized vehicles and public transport:
Therefore, it was necessary to develop an iterative process to determine the number of commuter trips (Ci and Cp). This number will result from a transfer of trips from individual motorized vehicles to more sustainable modes, namely public transport and active modes.
Therefore, given the negative trend that has been registered in the demand for public transport, the strategic option was a more conservative bet concerning the transfer of individual motorized vehicles to public transport and a more accentuated transfer from individual motorized vehicles to active modes, mainly due to the national cycling strategy that sets a target for Portugal to have 7.5% of trips made by bicycle by 2030 [
42].
Table 7 shows the current modal share in Braga for active modes.
To guarantee CO
2 emissions of 59,150 tonCO
2 in 2040, the transferring of commuting trips from motorized individual vehicles should be massive and should follow the patterns presented in
Table 8.
Only with a considerable modal shift from cars will it be possible to meet the targets set for CO2 emissions for the road transport sector in Portugal. It is expected that by 2040, 63% of the commuter trips in Braga will be made by active modes and that 32% will be made by bus, whereas the usage of polluting cars will be almost non-existent in the city.
To test the sensitivity of the methodology presented, a test was carried out assuming that the number of commuter trips per person per day would be 2, instead of 2.5 (base for the scenarios presented). In this case, the share of public transport would be set to 36% of daily commutes, while private car share would decrease to 8.48%. In this case, the share of active trips would drop to 55.5%. This scenario would prioritize the shift to public transport instead of active modes, which would be easier to accomplish if the bus service in Braga became reliable, comfortable, and accessible.
5. Discussion and Conclusions
The transport sector is one of the biggest contributors to air pollution in the current economy of the European Union [
43]. Thus, to meet carbon neutrality in this sector and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, substantial changes need to be made in the usage of polluting individual motorized vehicles, comprising modal shifts to active modes of transport and public transport [
14,
39].
Recently, several measures have been taken to minimize the harm of road transport to air quality. The European Union set a deadline to only commercialize zero-emission vehicles by 2035, and several countries, including Portugal, are working on the decarbonization of public transport and improvements to infrastructure to accommodate more trips made by active modes of transport, such as an increase in cycle networks to encourage people to cycle to work or school [
22].
Unfortunately, the overall results show that, after the COVID-19 pandemic, CO
2 emissions experienced a rise in the transport sector, mainly because people returned to their habits of driving everywhere, and the targets set to decrease air pollution seem to be harder to achieve [
38]. In the Portuguese case, the ambitious targets to be achieved in 2040 and 2050 will be hard to reach if a profound change in urban mobility does not occur.
To help manage the need for modal shifts to meet the targets set for CO2 emissions from the transport sector, a methodology was developed to evaluate the number of commuter trips that need to be made using sustainable modes of transport. This methodology takes into consideration that individual motorized vehicles are polluting and that active modes of transport and public transport are options that need to be taken into consideration and used by the general population.
Other methodologies used to measure the implications in urban mobility due to the need for the decrease in CO
2 emissions focus on a change in fuels to decarbonize the transport sector, a shift to public transport, and measures to shift to active modes and public transport [
27,
28]. The novelty of this methodology focuses on the specific number of trips, and consequently, the modal share needed by different sustainable modes of transport to take trips from cars in future scenarios.
The results presented in the case study of Braga show that a massive change needs to be achieved in modal shares and commuter trip distribution among different transport modes to achieve the ambitious targets set out by the government. In Braga, almost 70% of the commuter trips are currently made by cars, and by 2040, 63% of these trips will need to be made using active modes and 32% by bus, so only 55,784.23 tonCO
2 are emitted by the road transport sector, which is below the target of 59,150 tonCO
2. Even though the number of individual trips would decrease if the share of bus trips were higher, and people tend to shift to public transport more easily than to other transport options [
44], the option of expanding active mobility is being encouraged because it also helps increase well-being, physical activity, and consequently, the general health of commuters.
In this specific case, the methodology does not take into consideration any sociodemographic influence on transport mode choice, since studies have shown that if sustainable options are presented to the population and they can be safely used, then people will be willing to switch from private cars to walking, buses, and micromobility options [
45,
46,
47].
The results of this methodology can help municipalities and policymakers to better understand what specific measures need to be taken to meet CO2 emission targets and promote a modal shift from cars to public transport and active transport modes, once they can estimate the number of commuter trips that need to be made by each transport mode and the modal share they need to be incorporated into the city.
Therefore, to increase the use of public transport, Braga should invest in public policies that increase bus accessibility for the population, meaning that people should have easy access to bus stops and bus routes; walkability is also important, since people tend to walk more to bus stops if there is an attractive walking route to them (e.g., trees, shopping area) [
48]. In addition, providing comfortable public transport and reliable information (e.g., bus schedule, time that the bus arrives at the stop), would also increase people’s willingness to shift from private cars to public transport [
49].
In order to increase the share of trips made by foot and bicycles, the city should invest in safe infrastructure that is accessible and connected in areas where land use is dense and the urban fabric is diversity [
19]. Similar to the policies currently being implemented in Paris, cities should focus on removing space from cars and create a connected cycle network, plant more trees, and make schools streets safer so that children can use active modes of transport.
However, the current methodology does not account for the introduction of zero-emission cars in urban environments. This limitation could be addressed in future research, as the present approach only considers polluting cars and buses. As an aside, the methodology could also include the number of trips in electric vehicles for future scenarios despite only including walking, bicycles, and buses, since the former would also be considered non-pollutant trips.
In short, the air pollution and CO2 emissions from the road transport sector are still a problem in the European Union and Portugal. Even if ambitious targets have been set to decarbonize the transport sector, little has been done to change the mobility landscape to be more sustainable. The methodology presented here could be used by policymakers to design an action plan to reduce car usage and improve public transport and active transport modes in different cities and contexts.