Coupling System Dynamics Model of Cross Border Logistics and Ecological Environment Based on the Sustainable Perspective of Global Value Chain

Abstract

International import and export trade, along with cross-border logistics management, plays a pivotal role in the era of globalization, driving the development of the global economy and fostering international trade prosperity. Nevertheless, the continuous growth of the global economy has also brought forth fresh challenges to the ecological environment posed by cross-border logistics activities. Against this backdrop, this paper begins by analysing the correlation between international trade and logistics activities. The study reveals a positive response relationship between the total volume of international import and export trade and cross-border logistics, demonstrating a positive correlation. Subsequently, the impact of international import and export trade, as well as cross-border logistics, on the ecological environment is discussed, underscoring the significance of implementing ecological environment monitoring. Taking into account the environmental impact of cross-border logistics activities, an integrated system is proposed and designed to enhance cross-border logistics efficiency while considering environmental protection and sustainable development. This system encompasses real-time monitoring, data collection, threat, and risk assessment. This study makes a clear contribution to research on green innovation and environmental protection within the context of cross-border logistics. It offers a different perspective on the integration of cross-border logistics management and the ecological environment, deepens understanding of environmental protection innovation strategies and cross-border logistics management from the perspective of sustainable development. Furthermore, it provides valuable management insights for related enterprises to balance development and environmental protection. Additionally, it sheds light on the international impact of import and export trade, offering crucial inspiration and theoretical references for decision-making.

1. Introduction

With the continuous advancement of globalization and the rapid development of science and technology, cross-border logistics, as an important link connecting global supply chains and promoting international trade, plays an increasingly critical role. As the cornerstone of global economic growth and development, the importance of cross-border logistics and foreign trade is reflected in many aspects.

First is economic significance. According to The World Trade Organization (WTO) estimates, 80% of global trade volume and 70% of value are transported through cross-border logistics (World Trade Organization, 2020 [1]). Through the flow of goods, raw materials and resources on a global scale, producers and consumers in different parts of the world are connected, increasing efficiency and productivity and helping to eradicate poverty (Chalmer et al., 2009 [2]). Meanwhile, efficient international transportation networks further improve global value chains and promote sustainable economic development. The second is social significance. The exchange of goods between countries promotes cultural exchanges, and the exchange of products through different producing regions of the world enables consumers to experience and enjoy different cultures through purchase. International trade has been shown to contribute to job creation (Notteboom T., 2018 [3]). Thirdly, geopolitical significance. Access to shipping routes and ports can affect a country’s strategic positioning and global influence, such as the Strait of Hormuz or key chokepoints such as the Suez Canal. In order to form stable diplomatic relations and cooperation between countries, many countries have participated in and promoted trade liberalization to form a series of trade agreements, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the European Union Single Market and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (Roberts P. W., 2017 [4], UNCTAD, 2020 [5]). Last but not least, cross-border logistics and foreign trade have also driven various technological advancements. Technological innovations such as transportation, communications and logistics have further popularized standardized cargo handling and transportation efficiency while transforming the cross-border logistics industry. Tracking and information systems that have emerged in recent years have enabled real-time monitoring of goods and improved supply chain transparency and traceability (UNCTAD, 2021 [6]).

With the increase in total volume of international import and export trade, cross-border logistics is also increasing, and its possible negative impact on the ecological environment is becoming increasingly obvious (Cariou and Eden, 2019 [7], Wang et al., 2020 [8], Cano JA et al., 2022 [9]). The rapid growth of cross-border logistics has brought about large-scale activities such as freight transportation, warehousing, distribution and construction of logistics facilities, posing potential threats to air quality, water resources and land ecology. Studies by Christopher (2016), Wu and Li (2018), and Song and Chen (2019) show that cross-border logistics contributes greatly to global carbon emissions and also has a devastating impact on ecosystems and biodiversity [10,11,12]. While pursuing economic growth and commercial profits, we must deeply recognize the close coupling between cross-border logistics and ecological environment, and integrate ecological environment protection into all aspects of logistics decision-making on the basis of the sound development of cross-border logistics, realization of the harmonious coexistence of cross-border logistics and environmental protection (Song and Chen, 2019 [12]).

Although many previous studies have demonstrated a strong correlation between cross-border logistics and environmental protection, few studies have explored the coupling dynamic model of cross-border logistics and ecological environment from the perspective of global value chain sustainability. Additionally, few previous works have sought a sustainable model to balance economic growth and environmental protection in the process of cross-border logistics and foreign trade development. As one of the leading countries in import and export scale, China has built many cross-border logistics industrial parks in the past decades, but the efficiency and environmental protection level of cross-border logistics network remain inadequate and require further improvement. There is little research on approaches to improve efficiency and achieve sustainable development from the specific operation of cross-border logistics.

Taking China as an example, what is the interaction mechanism between international trade and cross-border logistics? What are the characteristics of the development of international import and export trade different from the past? According to the current development situation, how can we find a sustainable model to balance economic growth and ecological environment protection in the process of cross-border logistics and foreign trade development? How can the joint strategy of “cross-border logistics efficiency + ecological environment protection” be formulated? These pressing issues need to be addressed immediately.

Therefore, this research has two main goals: (1) Based on the development status of cross-border logistics and international trade in recent years, we further examine the economic relationship between cross-border logistics and import and export trade, and combine the official data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. An empirical analysis is conducted to reveal potential reasons. In particular, our goal is to put forward rationalization suggestions for the development of cross-border logistics in China; (2) Based on the above empirical analysis, we propose and design an integrated system through advanced computer technology, focusing on the combination of real-time environmental monitoring and cross-border logistics management system, forming an integrated management platform to provide policymakers and relevant practitioners with solutions for international trade and logistics environmental protection.

The structure of this paper is as follows. In Section 2, we briefly review the relevant research literature on cross-border logistics, international import and export trade, and ecological environment. In Section 3, a theoretical analysis is carried out on the interaction mechanism between cross-border logistics and import and export trade, as well as the flow of import and export commodities. In addition, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, an empirical analysis of the relationship between international trade and logistics is carried out on the total amount and development status of import and export foreign trade from 1991 to 2010. This process can better solve the first research goal and obtain corresponding analysis results. Section 4 develops and designs a comprehensive integrated management system to combine ecological environmental protection and cross-border logistics operations to obtain scientific and reasonable solutions. In addition, Section 5 discusses relevant results and policy recommendations. Finally, our conclusions and possible future research prospects are presented in Section 6.

2. Literature Review

2.1. Research on Cross-Border and International Import and Export Trade

In recent years, cross-border logistics has become a hot academic research topic. Cross-border logistics and international import and export trade are two important areas closely linked to global economic development, which are interdependent and mutually reinforcing in the context of globalization. As an important form of support and guarantee for trade activities, cross-border logistics ensures the smooth international circulation and delivery of commodities. International trade promotes international division of labour and resource allocation, and accelerates the global flow of goods and services (Ghiani et al., 2004 [13]).

Cross-border logistics has a positive impact on international import and export trade. Efficient cross-border logistics network can effectively shorten the time of international cargo transportation, reduce transportation costs and improve trade efficiency. Chen and Paulraj (2004) proposed that the improvement of logistics efficiency is essential for international trade and will bring more business opportunities for the future development of international trade [14]. Lambert et al. (1998) and Hugos (2018) believe that the reliability and stability of cross-border logistics directly affect the stability of the international supply chain. Reliable logistics network can guarantee the punctual arrival of goods, reduce the risk of supply chain disruption, and guarantee the stable development of international trade [15,16]. In addition, Mangan et al. (2008), Simchi Levi et al. (2008) and Li and Sun (2009) found that cross-border logistics provides opportunities for enterprises to explore international markets. Through the establishment of efficient cross-border logistics full-link services, the rapid delivery of goods to global customers, expansion of the scope of sales, and increases in the international market share can be ensured [17,18,19].

Similarly, international import and export trade also has a certain impact on cross-border logistics. The continuous growth of import and export trade is bound to bring about an increase in the demand for cross-border logistics. Sun et al. (2019) proposed in their research that the large-scale transportation of international goods requires a complete logistics network and transportation services, which prompts logistics companies to continuously innovate and improve their business [20]. International import and export trade also has an impact on cross-border logistics due to the trade policies and customs regulations of different countries (Qu and Zhang, 2011 [21]). Enterprises engaged in cross-border logistics operations need to abide by the relevant regulations of different countries to ensure the legal entry and exit of goods and smooth customs clearance. In addition, international traders have high requirements for logistics service levels, especially in terms of timeliness of receipt and security of goods, which further promotes cross-border logistics enterprises to improve service levels and capabilities. Therefore, Waters (2013) and Cullinane et al. (2015) proposed to optimize and upgrade transportation solutions to better meet the needs of international customers [22,23].

With the global economic development in recent years, the research of Tseng, P.H. et al. (2019) and Hilmola and Szekely (2020) found that cross-border logistics and international import and export trade have gradually formed a close interaction mechanism and cooperation mechanism, so as to jointly solve the problems in cross-border logistics operation and improve logistics efficiency and service quality [24,25]. With the rise and prosperity of cross-border e-commerce, it also provides new cooperation opportunities for cross-border logistics and international trade, and is developing towards digitalization and globalization. Zhu et al. (2017) pointed out that new technologies have had a profound impact on the interaction mechanism between cross-border logistics and international trade [26]. Chaudhary and Dwivedi (2021) found that the application of technologies such as the Internet of Things, big data, and cloud computing has made logistics operations more intelligent and digital. The introduction of new advanced technologies not only optimizes the process and operation of cross-border logistics, improves cargo tracking and visibility, but also optimize logistics transportation routes and resource utilization, enhancing the controllability and predictability of international trade [27]. Under the trend of globalization and digitalization, the interaction between cross-border logistics and international import and export trade will be further deepened. Logistics service providers will increase investment in technological innovation, improve logistics service levels, and achieve more efficient, intelligent and sustainable logistics operations (Sarkis J, 2012 [28], Panayides and Song, 2008 [29]).

2.2. Research on Cross-Border and Environmental Protection

The cross-border logistics system includes transportation, warehousing, distribution and other links, involving a variety of means of transportation and logistics facilities. The impact on the ecosystem includes: Firstly, carbon emissions and climate change. Research by Zhang L. and Zhang Y. (2019) shows that cross-border logistics requires a lot of energy, especially for long-distance transportation methods such as air and sea transportation. This leads to a large amount of carbon emissions, exacerbating the problems of global warming and climate change [30]. Secondly, resource consumption and environmental damage. Cross-border logistics requires a lot of energy and resources, including fuel, water and a series of raw materials, which puts enormous pressure on environmental resources. Waste and pollutants generated during international logistics transportation also cause pollution and damage to the ecological environment. Thirdly, biodiversity loss. Cross-border logistics activities involve the transportation and introduction of species, which can have a negative impact on biodiversity. The introduction of invasive species may disrupt the balance of local ecosystems, leading to the extinction of native species or posing a threat to local species (Wang et al., 2017 [31]). In addition, there are changes in land use: the expansion of cross-border logistics requires a large number of logistics facilities and storage space, which may lead to changes in land use. Research by Lai et al. (2013) and Ilshat G et al. (2016) analyses and confirms that the construction of large-scale logistics centres and warehouses may lead to overexploitation and destruction of land resources [32,33].

Considering the many impacts of cross-border logistics on the ecological environment, different countries and regions have formulated different policies and regulations on ecological environment protection. This has consequently brought many challenges to the development of cross-border logistics (Theodore and Patrick, 1998 [34]). Enterprises engaged in cross-border logistics business need to abide by the environmental protection regulations of various countries to ensure that logistics operations meet environmental standards. In recent years, studies by Zhao et al. (2017), Lee et al. (2018), Lu et al. (2020) and Caldeirinha et al. (2023) found that green logistics technology innovation plays an important role in improving the efficiency of cross-border logistics networks and optimizing transportation routes. For example, the application of logistics information systems can improve logistics efficiency and reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. Other technological innovations, such as electric vehicles, intelligent management systems, etc., can also help reduce adverse impacts on the ecological environment [35,36,37,38].

In view of this, many advanced logistics companies have gradually begun to improve technology and management and implement green supply chain management. For example, Kaur and Singh (2020) proposed to reduce the negative impact on the environment by promoting environmental protection measures such as energy conservation, emission reduction, and resource recycling [39]. Liu and Yi (2016) propose to further promote the application of green technologies, such as the adoption of advanced energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies by logistics companies, the use of clean energy, the promotion of electric and hybrid vehicles, etc., to reduce carbon emissions and pollution during distribution [40]. In addition, integrating different modes of transportation will minimize the impact on the ecological environment. For example, air transportation produces higher carbon emissions than ocean transportation (Yuan and Wang, 2015 [41]). Multi-mode transportation including sea transportation, railway, road and air transportation, can effectively reduce carbon emissions, actively promote low-carbon transportation methods, optimize routes and transportation efficiency, and achieve a balance between ecological environmental protection and the efficient development of cross-border logistics [42]. As for policymakers and relevant practitioners, they should have environmental awareness, follow the laws of green logistics, strengthen environmental awareness and education, and promote the sustainable development of cross-border logistics operations (Cheng Y et al., 2022 [43]).

Cross-border logistics is a global activity that requires cooperation and coordination among countries. In order to better achieve the goal of coordinated development of cross-border logistics and ecological environment protection, some scholars including Harpreet and Singh (2017), Weihua L et al. (2018), Sodhi and Tang (2020) and Maja K.J et al. (2021) propose to further promote partnerships for international cooperation and exchanges at the national development level. International cooperation can promote information sharing, technological innovation and exchange of best practices, and jointly address the challenges of cross-border logistics to the ecological environment [44,45,46,47,48].

In terms of specific implementation, Wang et al. (2017) found that promoting and implementing sustainable strategies by national or regional governments is an important way to reduce the impact of cross-border logistics on the ecological environment [49]. This includes optimizing transportation routes, promoting green transportation methods, and improving logistics efficiency. Many international organizations and multinational companies have proposed “green logistics” initiatives based on sustainable development strategies, and are committed to promoting the development of logistics business in an environmentally friendly and sustainable direction. They have set an example for the coordinated development of cross-border logistics and ecological environment by adopting green technologies, promoting sustainable transportation methods and reducing carbon emissions. Some countries and regions have also established transnational cooperation and environmental protection partnerships to jointly address cross-border logistics and ecological environment issues. They cooperate to carry out environmental protection projects, share environmental protection experience, jointly promote the sustainable development of cross-border logistics business, and avoid environmental dumping and unreasonable competition through international coordination (Jia F et al., 2020 [50], Chai Y et al., 2021 [51], Li Z. et al., 2023 [52]).

In addition to actively carrying out exchanges and cooperation between national and regional organizations, some scholars such as Choi T M et al. (2013), Chen J et al. (2014) and Chae and Yeom (2019) also propose to strengthen the environmental regulation of cross-border logistics activities and compliance enforcement, including the use of renewable energy, the promotion of recycling of packaging and transportation, and the adoption of environmentally friendly logistics facilities to reduce negative impacts on the ecological environment [53,54,55]. Further proposals include monitoring the environmental impact of logistics enterprises by establishing strict environmental standards and regulations, and taking necessary measures to rectify and punish transgressors. With the popularization of innovative technologies, technological innovation based on sustainable development strategies provides strong support for the coordinated development of cross-border logistics and ecological environment. Some emerging technologies such as Internet of Things (IoT), big data analytics, artificial intelligence and automation systems are widely used in cross-border logistics to improve transportation efficiency and reduce environmental impact. Among them, automated systems can improve the efficiency and accuracy of logistics operations and reduce environmental damage and human input (Korczak J. et al., 2016 [56], Li, D. et al., 2017 [57], Tseng, P. H. et al., 2018 [58], Murata K. (2016) [59], Chen J and Li X. 2020 [60]).

The above literature reviews the relationship between cross-border logistics, international import and export trade and ecological environment, and proposes a series of theoretical solutions, such as reducing carbon emissions control, environmental protection measures, sustainable development strategies and technological innovation. These studies provide an important reference to deeply understand the interaction between cross-border logistics and ecological environment. However, there are still many issues that need further research. For example, further investigations are required into the endogenous evolution functions or mechanisms between the growth of cross-border logistics and international import and export trade. Additionally, based on the rapid growth trend and development status of international trade and the global value chain in recent years, further empirical analysis of the relationship between the cross-border logistics and international trade is warranted. Moreover, further research is warranted regarding the economic impact and social impact of cross-border logistics and the ecological environment, as well as what targeted policy suggestions and measures are available from the perspective of enterprises. In addition, few studies have considered incorporating the environmental protection real-time monitoring system into the comprehensive management platform of cross-border logistics, which has a significant impact on the overall coordination of cross-border logistics and ecological sustainable development. Different from the existing literature, based on the empirical analysis results, this study for the first time comprehensively considers the cross-border logistics full-link response system and the ecological protection system, proposes and designs a fully integrated system to provide policymakers and relevant practitioners with practical advice on promoting international trade and logistics development and environment protection.

3. Features and Analysis

3.1. The Common Development of Foreign Trade and Logistics

3.1.1. The history of China’s Logistics Industry

The history of China’s logistics industry can be divided into three stages:

• The first stage: from the founding of new China to the end of 1970s

In this period, China has been implementing a highly centralized planned economy system. The raw material supply, production, sales and circulation of production enterprises, the purchase and sales of circulation enterprises, the operation and management of storage and transportation enterprises are all carried out under the strict planned economy system. Enterprises generally exhibit the phenomenon of “large and complete” and “small and complete”. There is no concept of logistics, nor the theory and mechanism of systematic management of logistics activities.

2.

The second stage: from the end of 1970s to the end of 1990s

After the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, with the acceleration of reform and opening up and the continuous expansion of domestic commodity circulation and foreign trade, logistics began to gain attention. In March 1979, the preparatory group of China Society of material economy was established, and began to contact and study with foreign logistics groups. In June of the same year, a delegation of Chinese material workers travelled to Japan to attend the Third International Logistics Conference, and for the first time made a special investigation on Japanese logistics. In October of the same year, the academic report “foreign emphasis on logistics research”, which gathered the collective wisdom of nearly 2000 material workers, introduced the current situation of foreign logistics for the first time in public, and the relevant knowledge of logistics spread in the vast material management industry. In March 1980, the China Society of material economy was founded and began to conduct large-scale foreign logistics exchanges and discussions, which promoted the development of China’s logistics. Since then, China began to contact logistics and related concepts.

3.

The third stage: from the 1990s to the present

Since the 1990s, with the deepening of economic reform, China’s national economy and foreign trade have entered a period of rapid development. China’s industrial and commercial enterprises, especially Sino foreign joint ventures, constantly put forward new logistics demands in order to improve their competitiveness, and logistics also moves towards the road of professional development. In the mid-1990s, “third-party logistics” quietly rose in some cities with high degree of reform and opening up in the southeast coast. This benefits from the achievements of China’s reform and opening up and economic development, and also benefits from the global operation of some successful multinational companies. In the process of trade, China gradually introduces advanced logistics concepts. In 1994, China’s first third-party logistics enterprise “P&G logistics company” was established in Guangzhou, and successfully undertook the distribution of P&G products in mainland China, thus providing a model for the large-scale rise of logistics, transforming China’s third-party logistics companies from unfamiliar to familiar with logistics, and embarking on the road of their own exploration. In November 1999, after the “International Symposium on modern logistics development” held by the State Economic and Trade Commission and the World Bank, the whole country began to prioritize the development of the logistics industry. Since the early 1990s, China’s logistics industry has developed vigorously and become an important pillar of economic construction and foreign trade.

3.1.2. The Total Volume of Import and Export Trade Increased Year by Year

Since 1991, the total volume of China’s import and export trade has been increasing year by year. This process of development is shown clearly in Figure 1. During this period, the development of foreign trade can be divided into three stages as follows.

The first stage: before 2001, the total import and export volume had just exceeded 100 billion, and the annual growth rate was very limited.

The second stage: from 2001 to 2010. After 2001, the volume of trade increased gradually. Although it developed slowly in the middle and late 1990s, it maintained an upward trend.

The third stage: since 2010. 2010 marked the beginning of a high-speed take-off. The total volume of import and export trade has just exceeded USD 5000 million.

3.1.3. The Proportion of Exports Increased, and Labour-Intensive Products Still Dominated

As one of the largest developing countries, in the process of continuous development of international logistics and foreign trade, China’s economy has been characterized by significantly larger exports than imports, with most exports stemming from labour-intensive products. This feature has affected the structure and operation of global value chains in recent years. It also has a certain impact on the sustainable development of cross-border logistics and ecological environment. Figure 2 shows the total import and export volume and change ratio between 2014–2021. The left column represents the total import and export volume in millions of US dollars, and the right column shows the import and export change ratio. The export ratio represented by the blue curve has continued to exceed the import ratio represented by the red curve between 2014–2018, and the gap between import and export change rates is more obvious, especially 2 January 2015, 2 January 2016 and 2 January 2018. After 2019, the import ratio gradually increased, but the gap between the two was not obvious until 2 January 2020 and 6 January 2020. Due to over-reliance on the export of labour-intensive products, China’s imports and exports are highly sensitive to the demand of the international market. Under the influence of fluctuations or increased competition in the international market, the import and export change ratio showed negative growth at individual time nodes, such as 10 January 2014, 2 January 2016and 2 January 2019.

Judging from the trend of continuous growth in total imports and exports, the production process of labour-intensive products usually requires a large scale of raw materials, water and energy, which may lead to excessive exploitation and consumption of resources. With the expansion of export scale, frequent cross-border logistics activities, including the use of transportation vehicles (such as cargo ships, planes, trucks, etc.) and related facilities (such as ports, warehouses), will continuously increase the use of fossil energy, lead to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and exacerbate the problem of global climate change. In order to avoid the sustainable adverse impact of the growth of cross-border logistics and foreign trade on the environment, it is necessary to further consider technological innovation and cooperation, minimize resource waste and monitor environmental changes in the production and import and export transportation process, ensure the balance between economic growth and ecological and environmental protection, and promote the sustainable development of global value chains.

3.1.4. Mechanism Analysis of Interaction between Logistics and Trade

Commodity flow, export flow and import flow are closely linked and affect each other, which is of great significance in studying the interaction mechanism between international logistics and foreign trade. Analysis based on the sustainable development perspective of global value chains can further explore the balance between economic development and environmental protection, which is helpful to understand how global value chains affect cross-border logistics and the sustainability of the ecological environment.

The first is commodity flow, which covers production, processing, warehousing and transportation and related information flow. It also includes three operational aspects: domestic logistics, cross-border logistics operations such as customs clearance and customs clearance, and import and export transportation in cargo distribution centres. As shown in Figure 3, the import and export parties sign import and export contracts after mutual transactions and negotiations. Exporters need to rely on logistics for supply and production when organizing the supply of goods. After organizing the supply of goods, domestic logistics is also required to deliver the goods to the port. After export customs declaration, the goods are delivered by sea, land, and air. Importers also repeat the same logistics operation process to deliver the products to end users or distribution centres. Analysing commodity flow is of great significance for optimizing supply chains, improving logistics efficiency, and ensuring reliable product delivery.

The second is the export flow. Demonstrating the export flow is helpful to understand the layout of the international logistics network and meet the needs of different national markets. Export products first pass through domestic logistics from the beginning of production, and are delivered to foreign consumers from the cargo distribution centre after customs declaration, as shown in Figure 4. In some cases, suppliers from abroad, such as processing trade, have completed part of the process before entering customs declaration and port transportation. Domestic logistics, customs clearance, and the efficiency of export transportation at cargo distribution ports directly affect the cost of exported goods. However, most of the cost of products is incurred by manufacturers in the production process, and the space for manufacturing in China and the world to reduce production costs is already quite limited. Therefore, improving transportation efficiency, saving costs, and increasing product added value in the field of circulation are of guiding significance for promoting export business and expanding markets.

Finally, there is the import flow. The import flow reveals the country’s import demand, import market and domestic industry dependence. This plays an important role in measuring the competitiveness of domestic industries, formulating industrial policies, and optimizing import logistics channels. Imported goods are transported by foreign manufacturers to domestic cargo ports, and then distributed by domestic logistics after customs declaration, as shown in Figure 5. Domestic manufacturers are most sensitive to the price of imported goods. In the logistics process, each part has to incur some costs. The level of cost determines the final cost for manufacturers to obtain imported goods, and accurate and timely delivery also affects logistics activities. Therefore, for enterprises, import flows can provide information for logistics service providers and supply chain managers, and promote the upgrading and development of domestic industries.

In summary, the analysis of commodity flows, export flows, and import flows holds paramount importance in the exploration of the interplay between international logistics and foreign trade. The interrelation among these flows collectively forms the essential nucleus of the global value chain. Only based on the actual operation of the entire process and link can we explore solutions and integrated systems to improve the efficiency of cross-border logistics, thereby promoting sustainable economic, social and environmental development.

3.2. An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Logistics

3.2.1. Selection of Indicators

The system dynamics model is a method to describe and analyse causal relationships, dynamic changes and interactions in complex systems. It is widely used to solve problems involving multiple variables and factors in the system, especially those involving time lag, feedback loops and nonlinear relationship issues, including economy, environment and society field, aiming to predict future trends and test the effect of intervention. From the perspective of sustainable development of global value chains, the development of cross-border logistics and foreign trade involves complex causal relationships and dynamic changes. In this context, this subsection selects influential factors and employs unit root testing and impulse response functions as models to conduct empirical analysis on cross-border logistics and import–export trade. By simulating past trends and trajectories of international logistics and freight, it provides a scientific reference for proposing and designing integrated systems.

• Freight transport turnover

Freight transportation turnover refers to the cumulative amount of the weight of each batch of goods transported by various means of transportation multiplied by their transportation distance in the reporting period (Chai Y et al., 2021 [51]). The unit of calculation is ton kilometre, and the formula is: freight transportation turnover = actual tonnage of goods transported × average freight distance. The index of freight transportation turnover includes not only the number of transportation objects, but also the factors of transportation distance.

In the statistical data of China logistics yearbook, freight transportation turnover is a very important indicator. Although the calculation of freight transportation turnover is directly related to the transportation industry, the information it contains is far beyond the scope of the transportation industry. The circulation of goods at least includes: transportation, storage, packaging, inventory and other processes, as well as the information transmission in these processes. Only when each link in the circulation operates efficiently, can the quantity and distance of goods transportation be improved. Therefore, freight transportation turnover not only represents the operation status of the transportation industry, but can also comprehensively reflect the circulation of social goods, that is, the development level of logistics.

2.

Total import and export trade

The total volume of import and export trade represents the course of China’s foreign trade development and the development status of foreign trade in each period, which is the best indicator of foreign trade development.

The analysis software is Eviews 6.0 version 6.0. The two indicators are annual data, and the selected time period is from 2001 to 2018. The data sources are: China Customs Statistical Yearbook 2017 and China Logistics Yearbook 2017.

3.2.2. Unit Root Test

The unit root test is utilized to ascertain whether a time series is stationary, thereby eliminating issues of non-stationarity. This is critically important for comprehending causality and the interrelationships between variables. Through unit root testing, the accuracy and reliability of model analysis can be ensured. If a time series is non-stationary, model results might be influenced by problems such as spurious regression, leading to misleading conclusions. Common methods in unit root testing include the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test and the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) test.

In this context, the ADF test is employed to assess the presence of unit roots in two indicators, determining their stability. If deemed unstable, this implies a certain order of integration, indicating significant temporal trends and non-zero mean values in the variations of the two indicators. Consequently, we opt to include constant and linear time trend terms in the testing, after conducting first-order and second-order differencing transformations. The best lag is selected based on AIC and SC criteria. The test results are presented in

Table 1. Unit root test results.

Index	Raw Data	First-Order Difference	Second-Order Difference	Conclusion
Freight turnover	−0.109	−2.7	−4.802 ***	0
Total import and export trade	3.408	−1.89	−3.481 ***	I (2)

Note: the values shown in the table are T statistics, ***, which means significant at 1% confidence level.

. The null hypothesis for both test methods assumes the presence of unit roots. The outcomes reveal that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected, indicating that the original data of the two indicators are not stable. Even after first-order differencing, instability persists. The second-order differences are −4.802 *** and −3.481 ***, respectively, at a 1% significance level, indicating I(2) processes, which implying that the two indicators of the I(2) second-order integrated series are not stable. This suggests that both the turnover volume of goods and the total import–export amount change over time. The series exhibits issues related to trends or periodicity, necessitating further analysis using alternative models.

3.2.3. Impulse Response Function

In the context of coupled models within the framework of the sustainable global value chain, impulse response functions can unveil the temporal dynamics and changing trends among different variables. For instance, when analysing the interplay between cross-border logistics activities and factors influencing foreign trade, impulse response functions can illustrate how a sudden shock to one variable affects other variables, as well as how this impact gradually spreads and diminishes over time. This contributes to gaining insights and analysing the dynamic response relationships among model variables.

Although logistics efficiency is not the primary cause of import–export trade, we can still analyse the impact of cross-border logistics on import–export trade using impulse response functions. Therefore, we choose the logarithmic forms of two variables and employ impulse response functions to observe how the current and future exogenous influences on the logistics efficiency index’s freight turnover rate affect foreign trade. For this kind of analysis, we first obtain time series data for goods turnover rate and international import–export trade, covering a time span of 30 years with data points every 10 years, as shown in Figure 6. Next, we utilize impulse response functions to measure the response of goods turnover to import–export trade and observe its variations at different lag orders.

On the other hand, the VAX (2) model is established, the optimal hysteresis is selected according to AIC and SC criteria, and the pulse is set as a unit of residual shock. The dynamic shock response analysis results are shown in Figure 7. The horizontal axis represents the number of periods, and the vertical axis represents the proportion of shock. After a positive impact on the domestic logistics index in the first period, the foreign trade increased, but the quantity was small. This situation lasted until the fifth period, after which the foreign trade volume gradually increased. The results of the impulse response function clearly indicate that the enhancement of logistics efficiency has both a promotional and lasting effect on foreign trade, although the role of cross-border logistics in foreign trade amount is relatively modest. In order to foster development of foreign trade, improvements in cross-border logistics need to be based on actual processes and links.

4. Research Design

4.1. Integrated System Design

Previous scholars have conducted research on cross-border logistics and ecological environment integrated management systems and achieved certain research results, including sustainable supply chain management, carbon emission control, multi-objective optimization model, etc., and provided theories and methods on how to incorporate environmental considerations into cross-border logistics management (Li Z et al., 2023 [52], Murata K, 2016 [58], Lee and Ng, 2019 [61]).

However, from the perspective of sustainable development based on the global value chain, it is imperative to incorporate economic, social, and environmental factors into various stages of the global value chain. This emphasizes the pursuit of long-term sustainability in global economic activities, not only short-term gains but also achieving a balanced combination of economic growth, social development, and environmental protection. Cross-border logistics, as a global economic activity, involves collaborative efforts among different countries and regions. It necessitates innovative process management to enhance transport efficiency while simultaneously reducing resource consumption and environmental impact. Based on this, this section aims to propose and design an integrated management system with this objective. Such a system allows consumers and stakeholders to gain insights into the manufacturing and transportation processes of products. For enterprises, it enables enhanced transport efficiency, full-process management. Moreover, it provides real-time monitoring for environmental protection. Ultimately, it offers scientifically rational solutions to achieve the dual goals of economic development and environmental protection.

According to the basic attributes of logistics analysed above, the interaction mechanism of international trade and logistics, and the total import and export volume of China at this stage, considering the development status of labour-intensive products still accounting for the main part, this part intends to design an integrated system to couple ecological environment monitoring and cross-border logistics management to form a multi-functional system platform integrating cross-border e-commerce, ecological environment dynamic monitoring, cross-border logistics dynamic management, etc., to achieve sustainable development of ecological environment and cross-border logistics.

Therefore, the ecological environment information monitoring subsystem and the cross-border logistics parcel monitoring subsystem were constructed, respectively, to improve the problems of unreal-time monitoring of the ecological environment and imperfect logistics status information channels, and the two sub-systems were integrated into the cross-border e-commerce management system. The purpose of this system is to solve the problems of domestic and foreign consumers who cannot grasp the logistics and distribution status and the damage to the environment of labour-intensive products when shopping across borders, and to provide full-link data information from purchase to delivery on e-commerce platforms.

The system functional requirements are as follows:

• Real-time monitoring of ecological environment information system including ecological and environmental indicators and recent storage environment information. According to the national regulation index, reasonable and reliable detection methods and data analysis processes should be provided for ecological environment monitoring. To ensure real-time monitoring, these devices and methods need to be portable, simple, fast, and reliable. According to the requirements of environmental protection indicators, real-time collection and display of ecological environment information are needed.
• Real-time tracking of parcel status for cross-border logistics system. Cross-border logistics must meet accurate and complete requirements. Due to the wide distribution of e-commerce platforms, direct access to overseas customers through e-commerce platforms is also the basis for accurate delivery. However, due to the long delivery cycle of cross-border logistics, overseas customers have doubts about the logistics status and time of cross-border goods. Therefore, in terms of cross-border logistics parcel status tracking, it is necessary to push the status information of cross-border parcels in real time after overseas customers purchase, and give status information such as the logistics location and delivery time of the goods at the front desk of e-commerce.
• As two important subsystems, real-time monitoring of ecological environment information system and real-time tracking of cross-border logistics parcel status system are also important parts of this study, including approaches to combine them with e-commerce systems and give full play to their potential value in future international trade and cross-border product marketing. According to the analysis of functional requirements and development status, the system will further realize the collection and analysis of ecological environment and logistics update information, and finally display it in the cross-border e-commerce system. The whole function implementation process needs to pass through a series of links, such as sensor data collection, network transmission, database storage, data analysis and processing, web foreground display and so on. The functional structure of the system is shown in Figure 8.

4.2. Software and Hardware Construction

The whole structure of the system needs to design the e-commerce platform, database, the underlying sensor network and the interface of each part. In order to meet the functional requirements of the system and ensure its stable performance, as well as subsequent upgrades and expansion, the three-tier structure of the Internet of things is adopted when building the system. The communication and data transmission of the system are mainly through the Internet, and extra bandwidth is provided according to the demand to meet the larger data flow. The system architecture will be divided into application layer, network layer and perception layer. The relative independence and coordination between layers can effectively achieve security, portability and scalability. Logically, the system can be divided into database server (Data Management), application server (data processing), Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition application layer, referred to as J2EE application layer (system middleware, etc.) and web presentation layer (Web Service). Vertically, each layer can be deployed in different physical machines, horizontally, it can be expanded by using server cluster technology, with good scalability and performance indicators.

The specific software and hardware construction of the system will be described in detail below.

According to the requirement analysis, the whole system will be divided into relatively independent subsystems, and finally these functional modules will be integrated according to their level in the system. These subsystems include e-commerce web platform, real-time monitoring of ecological environment information system, real-time tracking of parcel status for cross-border logistics system, Radio Frequency Identification, also known as RFID encoding/parsing system, real-time video system, etc. The front-end program of e-commerce platform belongs to the application layer, and its background and data interaction will be completed in the network layer. The real-time monitoring system of fresh quality and safety information, logistics monitoring system, RFID coding/analysis system, the lower computer of these subsystems belong to the perception layer, and the upper computer and its matching database service will be carried out in the network layer. The design of the e-commerce front desk is based on B/S architecture with high portability and compatibility. The application of advanced HTML5 (Hypertext Markup Language, version 5) standard for page coding greatly improves the reliability of the system. Oracle database is used to improve the query efficiency and reduce the storage redundancy. The data interaction process between e-commerce platform and product database is completed by middleware written in Java.

Real-time monitoring of ecological environment information system and real-time tracking of parcel status for cross-border logistics system are designed using wireless sensor technology. The transmission of its monitoring network adopts ZigBee transmission. ZigBee nodes with various sensors are designed. After the ZigBee nodes are bootstrap networking, the ZigBee sensor nodes upload the collected data. The system structure of ZigBee is shown in Figure 9. All the data will be gathered in the gateway node (Coordinator), and the network nodes will be uploaded to the server for computing stored procedures.

4.3. Overall System Architecture

As shown in Figure 10, according to the type of technology, the relevant data of ecological environment information can be roughly divided into: RFID encoding/parsing systems, wireless sensor networks and real-time network video systems. The RFID encoding/parsing system mainly bundles each region and determines the unique identification of each region. The main function of wireless sensor network in production, processing and logistics is process data monitoring. The real-time network video system is mainly responsible for providing real-time video services. After the servers of these three systems process the information, they can be pushed to new commodity interface prospects, cross-border commodity supervision platforms, cloud computing platforms and other applications.

According to the functional realization, these four systems are the ecological environment monitoring system, cross-border logistics parcel monitoring system, video real-time monitoring system, and RFID coding/analysis system. At the application level of the cross-border e-commerce platform, the software and hardware architecture of the system includes the entire production and sales process of the O2O model of cross-border products, enriching the monitoring, tracking, scheduling optimization, quality assurance and other functions of the entire industry chain.

5. Result and Discussion

5.1. Empirical Result Analysis

Based on an empirical analysis of the system dynamics model, the changes in the total trade volume of goods imports and exports are demonstrated when the goods turnover is impacted at different lag orders. The main characteristics are as follows:

• Short-Term Response: When the freight turnover experiences an impact, the total trade volume often faces short-term effects as well. This implies that these two variables may exhibit similar short-term fluctuations within an economic cycle. As shown in Figure 1, China’s import and export values reached a low point in 2009 due to the impact of the subprime crisis. Subsequently, China’s logistics industry entered a phase of slow growth and structural adjustment.
• Time Lag Effects: The impulse response function analysis reveals time lag effects, meaning that after an impact occurs, both the freight turnover and the total trade volume do not respond immediately but exhibit noticeable responses after a certain time lag. This is crucial for predicting changes in total trade volume and formulating economic policies. As shown in Figure 6, during the second decade of development, around 2010, both foreign trade volume and goods turnover rate exhibited smaller fluctuations, and this response effect extended to other industries.
• Directionality: There is a positive relationship between the freight turnover and the total trade volume. At a certain lag order, an impact on the goods turnover rate leads to a positive response in the total trade volume (i.e., an increase), and vice versa. Although China’s foreign trade has maintained steady and rapid growth over the past few decades, mainly centred on exporting labour-intensive products and processing trade, with trading partners mainly in Europe and America, there was a weakening trend in import and export trade during the global financial crisis.
• Complexity: The impulse response function graphs display complex fluctuations in the time series, with both positive and negative responses at different lag orders. This complexity might imply that the relationship between the freight turnover and the total trade volume is intricate. In the future, more influencing factors could be considered to further analyse and explain such phenomena.
• Impact Intensity: The impact of changes in the freight turnover on the total trade volume has a certain level of intensity. As illustrated in Figure 7, higher curves indicate that variations in the goods turnover rate have a more significant effect on the total trade volume, reflecting the strength of the impact of changes in the goods turnover rate on the total trade volume. Hence, during economic downturns, countries that primarily export labour-intensive products usually experience a higher decline in imports compared to exports. According to Customs Administration data, for instance in 2009, exports decreased by 21.1%, while imports dropped by 34.2%.

5.2. Integrated System Analysis

Environmental protection is one of the focuses of global attention, and the impact of cross-border logistics on the environment is particularly worthy of attention. Through the integrated system, we can discover possible environmental problems in logistics activities and take corresponding measures to reduce pollution and resource waste and achieve sustainable development.

For the whole process management of cross-border logistics, this integrated management system can first effectively improve transportation efficiency and optimize costs. By collecting and analysing dataset in the logistics and transportation process, such as cargo transportation time, transportation route, transportation cost, etc., the logistics and transportation process can be optimized to achieve reduced costs and increased efficiency. Secondly, by integrating the data of each link in the supply chain, the visual management of the supply chain can be realized, and the bottlenecks and problems in the supply chain can be found in time. This visualization is also reflected in the supplier information and logistics nodes, etc., which helps logistics enterprises to evaluate and manage the social responsibility performance of the supply chain, including environmental protection, labour rights and interests. In addition, this system can carry out threat and risk assessment and early warning of the whole process of cross-border logistics, including abnormal weather, environmental risks, supply chain interruption risks, etc., to help logistics companies respond to latent risks in a timely manner and take corresponding measures to reduce losses, and ensure delivery timeliness and security. Finally, the cross-border logistics whole-process integrated system can provide a large amount of data and information. Data provide an important basis for enterprise management and decision-making. Through in-depth analysis of cross-border logistics data, market dynamics and competition can be revealed, providing theoretical basis and reference for scientific strategic decision-making.

For ecological environment monitoring, this integrated system can provide real-time data on the impact of cross-border logistics operations on ecological environment conditions, including air pollution, water quality, noise level, energy consumption, etc. Through the analysis of these data, the impact of logistics activities on the surrounding environment can be monitored in a timely manner to ensure the safety and sustainability of the ecological environment. Secondly, based on real-time monitoring data, the environmental impact caused by logistics activities is analysed, and the degree of impact of different logistics links on the environment is assessed, which provides a scientific basis for formulating environmental protection policies and measures. Meanwhile, the ecological environment real-time monitoring system can obtain real-time data on energy consumption, including fuel consumption of transportation vehicles and energy consumption of warehouses. Through the analysis of energy efficiency data, the energy efficiency of cross-border logistics operations can be evaluated, and suggestions for energy conservation and emission reduction and feasible measures for multimodal intermodal transportation can be put forward. Finally, the system can monitor the environmental protection compliance of logistics enterprises in the process of cross-border business, including whether they comply with environmental protection regulations or carried out environmental impact assessments. Through the analysis of these data, it can ensure that the operation of logistics enterprises complies with environmental protection regulations and avoid environmental violations.

In conclusion, through the integrated system of the whole-process cross-border logistics management system and the environment real-time monitoring system, the logistics efficiency can be effectively improved and the risk of environmental damage can be reduced. Meanwhile, providing scientific and reasonable decisions for governments and enterprises can help formulate strategies to optimize the supply chain and environmental protection. Finally, sustainable development of cross-border logistics, foreign trade and environmental protection can consequently be achieved.

5.3. Policy Suggestions

5.3.1. Promote the Combination of Modern Logistics and Import and Export Enterprises

China is a large manufacturing country with its export products mainly based on manufacturing (Li et al., 2019 [59]). Therefore, preferential policies should be formulated around the joint development of manufacturing and logistics industries, encouraging manufacturing enterprises outsource logistics operations to professional logistics companies, which will promote the development of the logistics industry and help the industrial upgrading of the manufacturing industry.

At present, foreign capital has entered the field of high-end modern logistics in China. In addition, foreign logistics offers great advantages in the logistics market related to international trade. In contrast, the number of local logistics enterprises in China is large but the scale is small, making it difficult to provide customers with “one-stop” logistics service solutions. Therefore, domestic logistics enterprises should further cooperate with foreign logistics giants to enter the high-end market of international trade logistics driven by foreign logistics giants with advanced technology, strong capital, and strong and extensive networks. Meanwhile, the establishment of strategic alliances with multinational enterprises can help achieve multi-faceted grafting in sharing resources and capabilities, expand the types of logistics services and service geographical coverage, and improve the quality of international logistics services.

5.3.2. Improve the “District Port Linkage”

The most closely related logistical component to foreign trade interaction is port logistics (Li and Liu, 2020 [62]). As international division of labour deepens, future port logistics will become a crucial link between China and the global trade logistics chain. Developing port logistics and optimizing the construction of port areas has become an essential path to align with the future trends in foreign trade development.

This requires a differentiation-driven development strategy and targeted positioning, along with the utilization, integration, and upgrading of existing resources. Strengthening the construction of logistics facilities such as key foreign trade ports, international shipping container transshipment hubs, multifunctional international freight stations, and bonded logistics parks is essential, further enhancing port logistics efficiency and customs clearance effectiveness. With the growth of bonded zone functions and comprehensive business models, customs will implement a “once declaration, inspection and release” approach, progressively optimizing the application of electronic port information systems and achieving seamless coordination between port areas.

5.3.3. Strengthen International Cooperation and Promote the Common Development of Logistics and Trade

Cross-border logistics involves various stakeholders, including governments, enterprises, international organizations, civil society, and encompasses multiple administrative regions, necessitating cooperation among multiple stakeholders. To enhance cooperation, the first step is to achieve a shared understanding of green sustainable development and sharing. For instance, governments can promote the concepts of green consumption and sustainable development, raise awareness and attention towards the environmental aspects of cross-border logistics, and encourage consumers and businesses to take eco-friendly actions in cross-border logistics.

Furthermore, different countries or regions actively promote the construction of regional logistics systems, establishing cross-border regional trade and logistics cooperation mechanisms. This further promotes information sharing, technological innovation, and exchange of best practices to collectively address the ecological challenges posed by cross-border logistics. In regions like the Bohai Sea area, situated adjacent to the Japan–Korea Northeast Economic Circle and supported by the North China and Northeast hinterlands, active integration into the East Trade Free Trade Zone plays a role in promoting multilateral cooperation and foreign trade development (Xie Z et al., 2020 [63]).

Additionally, governments and pertinent industry stakeholders are enhancing support for green logistics technology and innovation, actively adopting environmentally friendly technologies and solutions. Stringent measures are concurrently being enforced to combat environmental pollution, curb illicit trade, and deter unauthorized transportation. These combined efforts collectively steer the cross-border logistics industry toward a trajectory characterized by environmental stewardship, regulatory adherence, and lasting sustainability.

6. Conclusions

From a global value chain perspective, taking China as a typical export-oriented country, this study explores the economic relationship between the total amount of imports and exports and freight turnover. China’s total imports and exports exhibit an upward trend on account of datasets from cross-border logistics and foreign trade, with exports surpassing imports from 2014 to 2018. The gap between them is notable, and there are instances of imports exceeding exports and negative growth in certain periods.

To delve further into the relationship between international logistics and foreign trade, analyses are conducted using unit root tests and impulse response functions. The results indicate that both the goods turnover rate and the total volume of imports and exports exhibit significant time trends. The second-order differences are −4.802 *** and −3.481 ***, respectively, at a 1% significance level, indicating I(2) processes. In the initial decade, the impulse response of the total volume of imports and exports (0.92) is notably larger than that of the goods turnover rate (0.17). As time progresses, the goods turnover rate gradually increases by 0.38 and 0.69, while the total volume of imports and exports grows by 0.73 and 0.86. The gap between them diminishes over time, highlighting that the impact of the total volume of imports and exports on cross-border logistics is greater than that of the goods turnover rate. Furthermore, the dynamic impulse response results reveal that under specific lag orders, the goods turnover rate and the total volume of imports and exports exhibit positive responses. Enhancing logistics efficiency contributes to the sustained promotion of foreign trade growth.

To further enhance logistics efficiency while considering environmental protection, based on the perspective of sustainable development and through advanced computer technology, this paper proposes and designs an integrated system that combines the whole process management of cross-border logistics with real-time monitoring of the ecological environment, in an attempt to provide theoretical exploration and decision-making reference for relevant enterprises and policymakers from a practical perspective. In addition, rationalization suggestions are presented in the discussion section. Overall, empirical analysis and system design can obviously be used to test the relationship between international import and export trade and cargo turnover in other countries. In addition, this integrated system can act as a reference for logistics enterprises, especially those developing cross-border logistics business.

This research still has some limitations. Firstly, the content analysis can be expanded to involve more countries and more impact indicators, such as domestic economic level, customs clearance efficiency, etc. In doing so, an evaluation system can be created to thoroughly measure the efficiency of cross-border logistics and international trade processes through quantitative analysis and model calculation, so as to formulate more effective sustainable development strategies. Another limitation is that this integrated system is still in the stage of theoretical exploration and has not yet been widely practiced and applied. Although in theory, the comprehensive system of international import and export trade and cross-border logistics management and ecological monitoring is of great significance, and can promote sustainable development and ecological environment protection, the actual implementation and application still face a series of challenges and problems.