# Actuarial Credibility Approach in Adjusting Initial Cost Estimates of Transport Infrastructure Projects

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## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Introduction

## 2. Literature Review

## 3. Methodology and Data

#### 3.1. Methodology

#### 3.2. Data

## 4. Empirical Results

#### Credibility Calculus Example

_{i}is the real cost (observed) of project i, A

_{i}is the forecasted (expected) cost of project i and n is the total number of projects in the database. Once again, the above procedure is repeated for each alternative methodology and separately for each project subsample (roads, railways, environment and public services). This allows us to compare our methodology with the alternative ones. As noted before, such a direct comparison is rarely found in the existing literature.

## 5. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Institutional Review Board Statement

## Informed Consent Statement

## Data Availability Statement

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

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Roads | Railways | |||
---|---|---|---|---|

Statistics | planned costs | real costs | planned costs | real costs |

mean | 1,074,104 | 1,031,646 | 797,417 | 638,497 |

max | 6,110,346 | 5,859,780 | 5,924,274 | 5,976,094 |

min | 112,368 | 91,123 | 94,575 | 105,451 |

observations | 95 | 50 |

Roads | Railways | |||
---|---|---|---|---|

Statistics | planned costs | real costs | planned costs | real costs |

mean | 877,815 | 842,701 | 616,661 | 507,633 |

max | 6,110,346 | 5,859,780 | 5,924,274 | 5,976,094 |

min | 21,944 | 15,144 | 22,989 | 23,194 |

observations | 118 | 87 | ||

Environment | Public places | |||

Statistics | planned costs | real costs | planned costs | real costs |

mean | 246,985 | 203,640 | 80,725 | 83,328 |

max | 2,213,304 | 1,813,718 | 819,000 | 819,000 |

min | 4664 | 4626 | 4807 | 4342 |

observations | 76 | 96 |

Forecasting Method | Roads | Railways | ||
---|---|---|---|---|

MAPE | WAPE | MAPE | WAPE | |

Actuarial credibility | 7.10 | 4.35 | 33.09 | 25.79 |

OLS | 10.15 | 7.32 | 31.38 | 32.38 |

LASSO | 8.37 | 4.79 | 33.45 | 33.56 |

Forecasting Method | Roads | Railways | Environment | Public Services | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

MAPE | WAPE | MAPE | WAPE | MAPE | WAPE | MAPE | WAPE | |

Actuarial credibility | 8.04 | 4.45 | 26.02 | 23.45 | 30.17 | 21.83 | 13.21 | 10.82 |

OLS | 9.02 | 4.81 | 23.78 | 26.68 | 29.65 | 22.63 | 13.68 | 12.92 |

LASSO | 9.02 | 4.79 | 23.57 | 26.39 | 29.50 | 22.56 | 13.68 | 12.92 |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Rokicki, B.; Ostaszewski, K.
Actuarial Credibility Approach in Adjusting Initial Cost Estimates of Transport Infrastructure Projects. *Sustainability* **2022**, *14*, 13371.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su142013371

**AMA Style**

Rokicki B, Ostaszewski K.
Actuarial Credibility Approach in Adjusting Initial Cost Estimates of Transport Infrastructure Projects. *Sustainability*. 2022; 14(20):13371.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su142013371

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Rokicki, Bartlomiej, and Krzysztof Ostaszewski.
2022. "Actuarial Credibility Approach in Adjusting Initial Cost Estimates of Transport Infrastructure Projects" *Sustainability* 14, no. 20: 13371.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su142013371