# Slope Deformation Prediction Based on MT-InSAR and Fbprophet for Deep Excavation Section of South–North Water Transfer Project

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## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Introduction

## 2. Materials and Methods

#### 2.1. Overview of the Study Area

#### 2.2. Data Source

#### 2.3. Fbprophet Algorithm

#### 2.4. Fbprophet Predicts Slope Deformation

## 3. Results

#### 3.1. Deformation Fields

- (1)
- The cross-sectional slope factor of the excavated slope is 2.5, and the soil on both sides produces extrusion pressure into the section under the action of gravity. When this force strikes on the slope surface, it splits into upward and horizontal directions, uplifting the slope of the channel.
- (2)
- Groundwater seepage and lateral penetration of rainfall recharge in the study area, swelling of the in situ soil beneath the canal structures after water absorption [25], also generating compressive forces into the cross-section, leading to the lifting of the channel slope.

#### 3.2. Predicted Results

- (1)
- The Figure 7a,d,g,i predicted values fluctuate widely, the predicted sudden change increment can reach about 10 mm in June–July 2020, and the probability of damage occurring at monitoring points of the A, D, G, and I drainage slopes are significantly higher than the monitoring points B, C, E, F, and G.
- (2)
- The deeper the excavation, the greater the slope uplift. Figure 7a,i show that near the end of the excavated section, the excavation depth at point A is 31.2 m, the accumulated monitoring value is 48 mm, and the predicted accumulated uplift is 56 mm; point I is 33.7 m deep, the accumulated monitoring value is 49 mm, and the predicted accumulated uplift is 62 mm. Figure 7b–h were excavated to a depth of about 45 m, and the monitoring accumulation and predicted values were all greater than those at points A and I. There was a strong correlation between the amount of slope uplift and the depth of excavation.
- (3)
- There are still seasonal fluctuations in the predicted results over the next year, but the overall growth trend remains the same. The maximum value of deformation is point C, with a predicted cumulative deformation of 73 mm, and the minimum value is point A, with a predicted cumulative deformation of 56 mm. Therefore, the deformation of the slope of the deep excavation section of the South–North Water Transfer Project shows an uneven phenomenon, and long-term deformation will damage the slope protection structure and pose a safety hazard.

## 4. Discussion

#### 4.1. Slope Deformation Characteristics

#### 4.2. Analysis of the Applicability of the Fbprophet

#### 4.3. Accuracy Evaluation

- (1)
- Reliability verification

- (2)
- Accuracy Assessment

#### 4.4. Comparison with Other Predictive Algorithms

## 5. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Institutional Review Board Statement

## Informed Consent Statement

## Data Availability Statement

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Figure 7.**The predicted deformation results of each sample point. (

**a**) Prediction of point A; (

**b**) prediction of point B; (

**c**) prediction of point C; (

**d**) prediction of point D; (

**e**) prediction of point E; (

**f**) prediction of point F; (

**g**) prediction of point G; (

**h**) prediction of point H; (

**i**) prediction of point I.

**Figure 9.**Annual folding time-series diagram. (

**a**) Point A annual folding time-series diagram; (

**b**) mean of 9 sample points annual folding time-series diagram.

**Figure 10.**Comparison of prediction results of different algorithms: (

**a**) predictive results of the decision tree over point A; (

**b**) predictive results of the ARIMA over point A; (

**c**) predictive results of the Fbprophet over point A; (

**d**) predictive results of the decision tree over point E; (

**e**) predictive results of the ARIMA over point E; (

**f**) predictive results of the Fbprophet prediction over point E.

Sample Point Number | A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Value (mm) | ||||||||||

maximum | 8.2 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.7 | |

minimum | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 |

NO. | R | RMSE/mm |
---|---|---|

A | 0.989 | 2.38 |

B | 0.988 | 2.87 |

C | 0.997 | 1.34 |

D | 0.997 | 1.18 |

E | 0.998 | 0.94 |

F | 0.998 | 0.89 |

G | 0.998 | 0.72 |

H | 0.997 | 1.04 |

I | 0.996 | 1.29 |

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## Share and Cite

**MDPI and ACS Style**

Ding, L.; Li, C.; Wei, L.; Guo, Z.; Jia, P.; Wang, W.; Gao, Y.
Slope Deformation Prediction Based on MT-InSAR and Fbprophet for Deep Excavation Section of South–North Water Transfer Project. *Sustainability* **2022**, *14*, 10873.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710873

**AMA Style**

Ding L, Li C, Wei L, Guo Z, Jia P, Wang W, Gao Y.
Slope Deformation Prediction Based on MT-InSAR and Fbprophet for Deep Excavation Section of South–North Water Transfer Project. *Sustainability*. 2022; 14(17):10873.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710873

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Ding, Laizhong, Chunyi Li, Lei Wei, Zengzhang Guo, Pengzhen Jia, Wenjie Wang, and Yantao Gao.
2022. "Slope Deformation Prediction Based on MT-InSAR and Fbprophet for Deep Excavation Section of South–North Water Transfer Project" *Sustainability* 14, no. 17: 10873.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710873