Urban Competitiveness: Identification and Analysis of Sustainable Key Drivers (A Case Study in Iran)

Abstract

From the mid-1990s onwards, the concept of competitiveness was introduced to firms at the level of countries, regions, and cities. It was used as an index of the success and superiority of places. The present study used quantitative (survey) and qualitative methods in the framework of the exploratory paradigm to achieve key driving variables affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah. The present study was applied in terms of its purpose and descriptive–analytical nature and research method. The study’s statistical population consisted of experts related to the Kermanshah competitiveness index, which studied 30 experts using the snowball method. MICMAC software was used to analyze the research data. Findings indicated that out of a total of 54 variables affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah, 11 variables were in this group, which were the role of Kermanshah city in the power structure (MIN1); geographical and strategic location (MIN4); national, regional, and local plans (MIN5); management (MIN6); clean and healthy air (ENV1); potential sources of soil and water (ENV2); security of space (SEC2); the agricultural sector (ECO7); domestic tourism (ECO16); foreign tourism (ECO17); and sustainable sources of income (ECO19). The final model of Kermanshah’s future competitiveness will be that in the first stage, if the government (administration and government structure), in the form of national, regional, and local programs, pays attention to the competitive advantages of places. Especially, in large cities, and eliminating regional inequalities and in the next stage, local government (officials, managers, and all planners as the executive department) will need to act in order to operationalize the competitiveness of the city. With the correct use of opportunities and potentials (economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and security), in the 20-year horizon, Kermanshah will be a city with national and even transnational competitiveness. Otherwise, in addition to burning opportunities and destroying the capabilities of Kermanshah, other places adjacent to Kermanshah province will gradually be involved in challenges; tensions; and economic, cultural, social, environmental, security, and other crises.

1. Introduction

Nowadays, one of the most important concerns of city managers is improving citizens’ quality of life in the context of sustainable development. In urban areas, land and space are significant. They are major driving factors in the economic sectors, such as doing business [1]. Developing cities have competitive benefits for development [2].

Cities have competed with each other since their inception. Today, with the increase of urbanization and the complexity of urban systems, the scope and dimensions of competition have increased. Thus, the competitiveness of cities has become one of the main issues in planning for the sustainability of cities. At present, cities consume about 75% of the world’s resources [3]. Thus, cities are competing for resources.

According to the United Nations and the World Bank, in 2018, 55% of the world’s population lived in urban areas, a proportion that is expected to increase to 68% by 2050. In addition to complicating the performance of cities, this global increase in urbanization has made competition between cities a joint effort to obtain resources from the private and public sectors at the national and global levels. This has put the world’s cities in a competitive trend in the economic field and in the social, cultural, political, and environmental fields. As a result, the cities of each country are always striving to find a superior position over other competitors due to the national and transnational roles. This is because, in today’s world, the condition for success is the optimal use of opportunities, potentials, and confrontation with leading challenges and limitations. Accordingly, in recent decades, new approaches, such as competitiveness and futures studies, have received serious attention in analyzing urban and regional issues. Globally, several studies have tried to assess the level of competitiveness of cities, and different criteria and measurement variables have been used for this purpose [4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11].

However, the application of these indices in urban competitiveness studies is related to the last three decades, and so far, no definition of universality has been provided for it. Various studies have placed the greatest emphasis on the economic dimension of urban competitiveness. Still, recent studies, and especially since 1999, have considered multiple aspects of competitiveness in terms of the social, cultural, environmental, and scientific–technological. However, still, the complex nature of urban competitiveness needs to provide more complete definitions and pay attention to more critical aspects in these definitions. One of these cases that has been neglected in all foreign and domestic studies is the security dimension of urban competitiveness, which can be called the basis of other dimensions of competitiveness. They defined the competitiveness of cities as a competitive city: it is a city that has a competitive economic, environmental, cultural, social, and security advantage in the national geographical space, compared to other competitors (other cities).

Kermanshah city, the administrative, political, and economic center of Kermanshah province, had a population of 946,651 in 2016. Kermanshah is the second largest and most populous city in the west and northwest of Iran (after the city of Tabriz). It is ninth among the cities of Iran in terms of population. This city, as one of the cities of Iran, has natural and human capabilities, including being located on the side of the regional communication highway (east and west corridors); being a suitable distance from economic poles in Iran; establishing a transnational role in the land management document; being located in the main transit route to Iraq (adjacent to two Sulaimaniyah and Diyala provinces in Iraq); having unique natural, cultural, and historical tourist attractions; and having relatively favorable water resources (with a rainfall average of 439 mm per year and being the second largest rainfall after the city of Rasht, with a population of more than 500 thousand people). They will precede a wide range of possible futures in terms of urban competitiveness. However, despite these capabilities, it ranks first place in Iran in terms of unemployment rate, with 15.7%. The average unemployment rate in Iran in 2014 was 10.6%. Furthermore, the number of employees in the industrial sector is only 23.01%, which is 4.41% and 5.34% lower, respectively, compared to the national average of 27.42% and that of the neighboring city (Hamedan), which is 28.35%. The number of libraries in Kermanshah (as an index of socio-cultural competitiveness) is 0.19 libraries per 10,000 population, which is, respectively, 3-, 10-, and 7-times less compared to the average of cities with a population of more than 500,000 with 0.56 libraries, as well as the cities of Hamedan (1.86) and Mashhad (1.33), which have the highest number of libraries [12]. Spatial manifestations of these differences can be found in problems such as suburbanization and informal settlement (10 suburban neighborhoods), irregular urban hierarchy (first urban), migration, environmental issues (dust), low social capital and unfavorable urban governance, closure of more than 40% of small and large industrial units, and the destruction of natural and human opportunities [13,14].

Different economic, social, security, and environmental factors each contribute to the competitiveness of cities. If the comparative advantage of cities in competitiveness remains unknown, the urban development program will not proceed in the main direction, and investments will be low in practice. In addition, the continuation of this trend will increase regional inequalities in the national space and deprive cities of opportunities and competitiveness in the transnational dimension. Urban competitiveness has different dimensions, and these dimensions affect each other. This study aims to identify these dimensions, identify their impact on each other, and finally identify and analyze the key driving variables affecting urban competitiveness in Kermanshah.

2. Materials and Methods

Kermanshah city, with 34°18′45″ N, 47°04′00″ E longitude of the Greenwich meridian, is located approximately in the center of Kermanshah province. Kermanshah is 1322 m above sea level. The area of Kermanshah is 8796 hectares, which, including the space of its barracks, refineries, and factories, is over 10,000 hectares. Its distance to Hamedan is 189, Sanandaj 136, Ilam 208, Khorramabad 197, and Tehran 525 km. This city is the second-largest and most populous city in the west and northwest of Iran (after Tabriz) and the largest city in Kermanshah province [15]. Kermanshah city had five districts, four cities, and 13 villages in 2016.

The type of this research is descriptive–analytical. A questionnaire, the Delphi technique, and documentary and library studies have been used to collect the required data and information. Questionnaires were prepared in two stages to apply the Delphi technique and analyze the cross-effects. The first stage included 30 open questionnaires, in which the most critical factors affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah in the central issues by considering various and comprehensive areas of competitiveness, including economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and security, were provided to experts, which led to the general extraction of factors affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah (

Table 1. Components, factors, and indicators affecting urban competitiveness [2,4,23,24].

	Components	Factors	Indicators
Urban competitiveness index.	Economic	Economic Performance	GDP per capita
			Investment in fixed assets per capita
			Number of economic entities in operation per 1000 inhabitants
			Foreign direct investment per capita
			Ratio of the unemployed persons to the working-age population
			Number of accommodated guests in hotels per 1000 inhabitants, occupation rate of hotels
			Revenue from the export of goods produced in the city per capita
		Economic structure and capacity	Percentage share of employment in the industry sector
			Percentage share of employment in the service sector
			Percentage share of employment in the agriculture sector
		Marketization and openness	Increase in attractiveness of a city to tourists
			Increase in openness of a city’s economy
			Actually utilized foreign investment
	Social-Cultural	Human resources and education	Working-age population
			University students per 1000 inhabitants College students per 1000 inhabitants
			Percentage of the labor force employed in science and education
		Quality of life	Number of public library books per 10,000 persons Number of public transportation vehicles per 1000 persons Number of post offices per 1000 persons Number of theatres and cinemas per 1000 persons Number of hospital beds per 1000 persons Number of doctors per 1000 persons
			Living space per capita
			Unemployment rate
		Level of urban development	Urbanization level Area of paved road per capita
		Social Management	Number of persons served by each employee in public management and social organization Availability of government websites
	Environmental	Environmental Pollution	Air pollution: Emission of air pollutants per 1 square kilometer Amount of SO2 per unit of the urban area Water pollution: Inadequately treated sewage per 1000 inhabitants The volume of industrial wastewater discharge The volume of industrial soot emission
		Pollution Treatment	Percentage of industrial SO2 removed Percentage of industrial wastewater up to the standards for discharge Percentage of industrial soot removed Percentage of domestic sewage deposed Percentage of harmless deposal of domestic rubbish
		Environmental protection and quality	Area of parks and green space Percentage of green space in the built-up area Percentage of air quality up to good standards

). The second stage included 15 questionnaires to determine the main factors affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah through weighting, which experts completed. Finally, MicMac software was used to analyze the collected data.

Selected Case Studies

In the last decade, much research has been devoted to developing urban development, urban sustainability, and urban competitiveness [16,17,18]. Most of these studies have emphasized the importance of urban development. The degree of success in the development of future cities depends on the actions of city managers in the present. Many factors affect the development of cities in the future, such as economics, politics, culture, and the environment. Most of these factors will improve urban sustainability and cities’ competitiveness [19,20,21]. For example, in China, there is an opinion that industrialization, urbanization, globalization, and information technology will increase China’s urban competitiveness [22].

The complex nature of urban competitiveness has been influenced by various components, factors, and indicators. Although in the scientific literature on competitiveness, economic components are more critical today, socio-cultural and environmental components and economic components also determine the competitiveness of cities as a whole because of these components. They also affect each other in some ways, so that a city can not be considered economically competitive, but in socio-cultural and environmental dimensions, they are not in a favorable condition. Table 1 shows the various components, factors, and indicators of Kermanshah’s urban competitiveness.

3. Theoretical Foundations of Research

Urban competitiveness has become an influential new research agenda [25], and researchers in urban economics, urban planning, and urban geography have researched it. On the other hand, the achievement of policies to promote cooperation between cities has attracted the attention of many researchers. This is because the cooperation of cities is significant for sustainable urban development [26].

The complex and multidimensional nature of urban competitiveness, which globalization has put in focus [27] by various researchers, including [6,28,29,30,31,32,33], has received serious attention.

The concept of competitiveness accepted in cities in scientific studies of recent years has focused more on the sense of territorial competition (regional and urban). It has spread to regional and urban political discourses. Several international organizations have defined the term competitiveness according to the territory. On the one hand, they agree on at least equating this competition with the physical and real environment, and on the other hand, achieving productivity. Thus, they know it is necessary to achieve a higher performance in natural resources, labor, and capital [7].

The main question and challenge in competitiveness studies are determining the dimensions and indices of urban competitiveness. In general, it is concluded from urban competitiveness research that the factors affecting urban competitiveness are not a factor but a set of factors and interactions between them [34], which then examines its importance and various dimensions; a summary of the definitions of urban competitiveness and the most critical points of each definition are presented in

Table 2. Concepts of urban competitiveness and essential points of each concept [23,35].

Author	Explaining Urban Competitiveness	Definition Highlights Provided
OECD	Urban competitiveness is defined as the degree to which a city can buy goods and services under free and competitive market conditions while also having access to international markets. In such a situation, the city must be able to simultaneously provide stability and real income development for its people in the long term.	Competitiveness of urban products; increase of residents’ income
European Commission, 1999	Competitiveness is defined as the ability to provide a high and stable income level while meeting the production of goods and services that are the benchmark of international markets. Otherwise, in general, it is the ability of (a city) to produce at relatively high levels of income and employment while being exposed to foreign competition.	High and stable income level
Webster and Muller (2000)	Urban competitiveness is the ability of a city to produce and create a market for products (goods and services) with the appropriate value (not necessarily the lowest price), in competition with competitive products of other urban areas.	Increasing the competitiveness of local products
Kostiainen (2002)	Ability to absorb the flow of information, capital technology, culture, people, and organizations that are important to the region, as well as the ability to maintain and develop the quality of life and living standards of residents and the ability to create an innovative operating environment in which companies can develop competitiveness.	Ability to absorb the flow of information; Innovative environment; Competitiveness of companies; High standards of living
PK Kresl (2007)	Urban competitiveness is how a city or urban area is superior to other cities or urban areas. Competitive cities must be able to provide jobs, income, cultural or recreational facilities, social cohesion, governance, and an urban environment for current and future residents.	Have the ability to provide welfare
J Sinkiene (2009)	Urban competitiveness is the ability of the city’s population to maintain a competitive position in a particular area (market) and competition among other similar cities, which aims to maintain similar goals, conserve resources, and improve the health of citizens through the management of foreign and domestic environmental factors.	Maintain a competitive position among other competitors

.

The authors of [36] have investigated the approach of measuring base power to determine the competitiveness of macro-economies. Their purpose was to assess the competitiveness of countries. Therefore, they first analyzed the level of the relative competitiveness of countries using explanatory variables. Then, using sensitivity analysis, they showed how pre-designed changes, with the changes that occur, can overshadow some of the features of a country’s overall competitiveness index. The general regression equation has been used to predict the WCI index as well as the correlation coefficients between the variables. In this study, they have identified seven criteria as the main indices of a country’s competitiveness: 1, Demographic structure (nine characteristics); 2, Health (four characteristics); 3, Education (eight characteristics); 4, Environmental conditions (six characteristics); 5, Technology and infrastructure (nine characteristics); 6, Economy (11 characteristics); 7, Military power (14 characteristics). Countries are divided into four groups (highly competitive countries, competitive countries, non-competitive countries, and highly non-competitive countries) according to the WCI. This research aims to provide essential policy recommendations at the national level for developing and developed countries and multinational organizations. These recommendations can be used to re-evaluate changes in a country’s competitiveness and evaluate the competitiveness of countries not ranked according to the WCI.

In another study [37], a national competitiveness index for measuring the Brunei economic environment was presented. The proposed index is based on collected hard data and surveyed soft data from four groups: 1, Economic performance; 2, Technology development; 3, Human resources; 4, Management capabilities. Based on the National Competitiveness Index, Brunei has performed relatively well in both the economic environment and human resources groups, but it has not performed very well in the technology development and management capabilities groups.

Other research [38] studied the regional competitiveness index to improve the future forecast of the two regions of Western Europe. This study conducted 133 interviews with three types of regional experts (academics, local index makers, and organizations). The three objectives of this study were (1) to provide a critical view of the concept of regional competitive advantage: different meanings that can be given to this concept, factors affecting the success of the region, and the role of each of them as drivers of regional competition; (2) problems related to measurement and mental limitations of the term regional competitiveness; (3) given these issues, to what extent and in what method and policy can the efficiency of regional competitiveness be improved. The research results show that, unlike countries, cities, and regions that compete for goods and factors of production, international markets compete based on an absolute advantage rather than a comparative advantage. Furthermore, suppose the concept of regional competitiveness has meaning and value. In that case, it is a very complex and rich concept, and especially regional competitiveness is a problematic and confusing concept.

Another study [39] has examined the concepts, factors, and models of urban competitiveness. Its goal was to provide a model of urban competitiveness that reflects the formation of competition in urban activities and the presentation of key factors and small and large environmental elements in contemporary cities. It concluded that competitiveness is a multidimensional concept, which will be defined depending on the purpose of the research. The concept of competitiveness can be generalized to different sections of society at the micro- and macro-levels. The territory of each city and its sphere of influence (global, national, or regional), in which it has an advantage (expertise), compete with other territories. Competition is only possible in cities with a similar performance, size, and status. According to the analysis of scientific literature, urban competition is the ability of an urban population to maintain a competitive position in a particular area (market) and compete among other similar cities with the same goal of conserving resources and improving citizens’ health through foreign and domestic management. Factors of urban competitiveness can be classified into two groups: (1) Key factors of the foreign environment, effectiveness, maintenance, and improvement of urban competitiveness (including five subgroups of general elements: political–legal, economic, socio-cultural, technological, and environment); (2) key factors of the domestic environment, a prerequisite for improving competitiveness in the city (including four groups of main factors: human, institutional, physical, and economic).

Another study [23] evaluated the urban competitiveness index of Lithuanian cities based on three groups of economic, social, and environmental indices. In their study, the economic index was divided into two categories of economic performance and capacity growth of the urban economy. Researchers have divided the social competitiveness index into subgroups such as human resources and the education system, social welfare, living conditions, and productivity in the public sector. However, the environmental index is expressed only as the quality of the environment in this structure, and they have concluded that the concepts of urban, regional, and national competitiveness are closely related, and tools, methods, and analysis perspectives of concepts of regional and national competitiveness can also be used to describe and analyze urban competitiveness. Various competitiveness factors can describe urban competitiveness. This justifies the effect of the factor selection technique on the results of the competitiveness measurement. According to empirical research, the most competitive cities in Lithuania in 2006–2009 were Vilnius (capital), Kaunas (city of universities and industries), Klaipeda (port city), Palanga, and Druskininkai (tourist cities). Lithuania’s least competitive cities were Akmene, Taurage, Ukmerge, and Svencionys. Their analysis has shown that the geographical location of cities has little effect on urban competitiveness.

Another study [4] measured the competitiveness of 253 Chinese cities in 2000 based on economic, social, and environmental criteria. They used a four-level hierarchical index system to calculate the urban competitiveness index. They showed that the top 20 cities, with a large share of the competitiveness indices, are generally located in eastern China, with a population greater than half a million people. In comparison, the bottom 20 cities are located mainly in the west of the country and have a population of between 200,000 and half a million people.

Another study [7] assessed the competitiveness of 159 cities in 26 EU countries based on the Combined Urban Competitiveness Index (UCI), which includes a variety of sub-indices. In this study, competitiveness was examined in three dimensions: basic, efficiency, and innovation. These dimensions are composed of different levels of competitiveness, and the factors that constitute the input and output of competitiveness vary according to their level of economic development. They have shown that London and Paris are competitive at the highest level of economic development. The major countries with the highest level of competitiveness are in northern and central Europe, including cities in Denmark, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.

Another study [40] studied the sustainability and competitiveness of 18 cities with a population of over 100,000 in Australia. This study examined the three variables of employment, population, and income by analyzing annual reports. The results of this study, while confirming the relationship between environmental sustainability and urban competitiveness, indicated that at the time of the study, the relationship between sustainability and competitiveness in Australia was not appropriate, and urban growth was associated with many environmental costs. Solving this problem requires discovering new opportunities that will be brought about by the approach and practice of smart city growth planners.

Another study [8], at the regional level, studied the competitiveness of the metropolitan areas of 93 NUTS3 regions from four Eastern and Central European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) in the Visegrad sections using the principal component analysis method and experimental databases. According to the competitiveness indices, this study concluded that urban areas are in a leading position. The cities of the capital are particularly characterized by strong competition. There is a moderate correlation between population size and the competitiveness index, as the urban areas of the four countries are widely dispersed based on competitiveness indices, while non-urban areas are less dispersed. Regarding the competition index of materials production, the producing countries of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary have also increased in the type of production. Areas with strong competition are located in the western parts of these areas, while non-competitive areas are more in the eastern and northern parts.

4. Results

4.1. Identifying Key Factors Affecting the Competitiveness of Kermanshah

After conducting documentary studies and distributing the first stage questionnaire among 30 experts related to the subject in Kermanshah, 65 factors were identified. After removing duplicates and overlapping cases, 54 factors were finally identified as the most crucial factors affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah (

Table 3. Competitiveness of Kermanshah (Index, Components, Indicators, Coding) (Research Findings, 2020).

Index	Components	Indicators	Coding
Urban competitiveness	Economical	Women’s employment rate	ECO1
		Men’s employment rate	ECO2
		Women’s participation rate	ECO3
		Men’s participation rate	ECO4
		Industry sector	ECO5
		Services sector	ECO6
		Agricultural sector	ECO7
		Education sector	ECO8
		Activities and organizations abroad	ECO9
		Financial revenue of the local government	ECO10
		Total sales of wholesale and retail	ECO11
		The average wage of staff	ECO12
		Food security	ECO13
		Domestic investment	ECO14
		Foreign investment	ECO15
		Domestic tourism	ECO16
		Foreign tourism	ECO17
		Resources Natural	ECO18
		Sustainable sources of income	ECO19
		Exports of goods and services	ECO20
		Comparative advantage at the national level	ECO21
		Comparative advantage at the transnational level	ECO22
		Economic security of investors	ECO23
		Utilization of local labor	ECO24
	SociaL- Cultural	Social solidarity	SC1
		Social capital	SC2
		Demographic composition	SC3
		Population density	SC4
		Migration rate	SC5
		Male literacy rate	SC6
		Female literacy rate	SC7
		Ethnic diversity	SC8
		Religious diversity	SC9
		Participation rate	SC10
		Trust rate	SC11
	Environmental	Clean and healthy air	ENV1
		Potential sources of soil and water	ENV2
		The amount of pastures and forests	ENV3
		The diversity of ecosystems	ENV4
		Environmental hazards	ENV5
		The amount of greenhouse gas production	ENV6
		The amount of industrial wastewater production	ENV7
		The rate of utilization of recycling technology	ENV8
	Security	Feeling of security of life	SEC1
		Security of space	SEC2
		Marginalization and informal settlement	SEC3
		Domestic security	SEC4
		Foreign security	SEC5
	Macro Indicators	The role of Kermanshah city in the power structure	MIN1
		Kermanshah population rank in Iran	MIN2
		Cooperation with border countries	MIN3
		Geographical and strategic location	MIN4
		National, regional, and local plans	MIN5
		Management	MIN6

).

The dimensions of the matrix were 54 × 54. The initial study of the properties of the matrix of factors indicated that the percentage of filling of the matrix (amount of effects other than zero) was 75.34%, which indicated the high effects of factors on each other, and a total of 32.72% of the numbers were zero, which means that the factors did not affect each other or were not affected by each other. Data optimization with two statistical rotations was 100%, which indicated the high validity of the questionnaires and their answers (

Table 4. The primary features of collected data and cross-effects (Research Findings, 2020).

MDI Characteristics
Matrix size	54
Number of iterations	2
Number of zeros	719
Number of ones	610
Number of twos	526
Number of threes	1061
Number of P	0
Total	2197
Fillrat	75.34

).

The variables affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah city were classified into five drivers and a total of 54 trends, which were mostly trends in the economic sector. It shows that the economic sector is significant in the competitiveness of Kermanshah (Table 3). The compatibility rate of the studied factors in the present study was 100% with two repetitions (

Table 5. The amount of compatibility of the direct effects (competitiveness factors of Kermanshah metropolis) (Research Findings, 2020).

Dependence	Influence	Iteration
97%	99%	1
100%	100%	2

).

4.2. Identifying the Direct Effects of Kermanshah Competitiveness Variables on Each Other

According to Figure 1, the distribution of competitiveness variables in the city of Kermanshah indicates the instability of the system. Because most of the variables were out of the (L) mode and were mostly around the diagonal axis of the chart, Kermanshah competitiveness factors generally have two types of direct and indirect effects. These variables can be divided into five groups according to their type of impact: influential variables, Two-sided variables (risk variables and target variables), dependence(dependent) variables, independent variables, and Adjusted variables. The following are the variables of each category.

4.2.1. Influential Variables

Figure 1 shows the most critical factors affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah. These variables are more influential and less dependent. Therefore, Kermanshah’s competitiveness depends more on these variables. In other words, other influential variables are also the most critical components because the changes in Kermanshah’s competitiveness depend on them, and the degree of control over these variables is significant. On the other hand, these variables are also input variables of Kermanshah’s competitiveness. Out of 54 variables affecting Kermanshah’s competitiveness, 11 variables were in this group: The role of Kermanshah city in the power structure (MIN1); Geographical and strategic location (MIN4); National, regional, and local plans (MIN5); Management (MIN6); Clean and healthy air (ENV1); Potential sources of soil and water (ENV2); Security of space (SEC2); the agricultural sector (ECO7); Domestic tourism (ECO16); Foreign tourism (ECO17); Sustainable sources of income (ECO19).

4.2.2. Two-Sided Variables

These variables act simultaneously in a very influential and dependent way. Figure 2 shows the two-sided variables of Kermanshah’s competitiveness. The nature of these variables is associated with instability, because every action on and change of them leads to a reaction and change amongst other variables. These variables can be divided into two groups: risk variables and target variables. Out of 54 variables affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah, 15 variables are in this group.

Risk variables are located around the diagonal line of the northeastern part of the graph. These variables have a very high capacity to become key players in Kermanshah’s competitiveness. Due to their unstable nature, they have the potential to become a “breakpoint” of competitiveness. Kermanshah competitiveness risk variables include Women’s employment rate (ECO1), Men’s employment rate (ECO2), Financial revenue of local government (ECO10), Average wage of staff (ECO12), Food security (ECO13), Domestic investment (ECO14), Natural Resources (ECO18), Exports of goods and services (ECO20), Economic security of investors (ECO23), Domestic security (SEC4), The amount of pastures and forests (ENV3), The diversity of ecosystems (ENV4), The rate of utilization of recycling technology (ENV8), Population density (SC4), and Migration rate (SC5).

Due to Kermanshah’s geographical location and the border with Iraq, although due to weak domestic management in dealing with issues such as dust, the city of Kermanshah has faced major challenges and has had negative effects on factors such as air quality and, consequently, the quality of life of residents; in return, it has provided many potentials to attract domestic and foreign investors, especially in the field of tourism development. Kermanshah’s border location and the availability of economic cooperation with Iraq can be a major factor in the competitiveness of Kermanshah. Furthermore, the high rate of migration is one of the factors that has negative effects on the competitiveness of Kermanshah because, with the departure of the expert force, the existing opportunities in Kermanshah, such as the number of rangelands and susceptible forests (164,634 hectares) will disappear [41].

Kermanshah competitiveness target variables are also below the diagonal line in the northeastern part of the graph. These variables are more influential and less dependent. Therefore, they can be identified with acceptable certainty as to the results of the development of Kermanshah’s competitiveness. For example, the amount of foreign investment is highly dependent on the economic security of investors. In other words, until the economic security of investors is not provided, this variable cannot be considered as a target variable, such as the closure of 40% of manufacturing factories.

4.2.3. Dependence (Dependent) Variables

These variables can be seen in Figure 3 and include the following variables:

Women’s participation rate (ECO3), Men’s participation rate (ECO4), Industry sector (ECO5), Services sector (ECO6), education sector (ECO8), Activities and organizations abroad (ECO9), Total sales of wholesale and retail (ECO11), Foreign investment (ECO15), Comparative advantage at the national level (ECO21), Comparative advantage at the transnational level (ECO22), Utilization of local labor (ECO24), Social solidarity (SC1), Male literacy rate (SC6), Female literacy rate (SC7), Ethnic diversity (SC8), Religious diversity (SC9), Participation rate (SC10), Trust rate (SC11), Foreign security (SEC5), Environmental hazards (ENV5), and The amount of industrial wastewater production (ENV7).

The nature of these variables is that they are much more influential and less dependent. Therefore, they are susceptible to the evolution of influential and two-sided variables. Out of 54 variables of Kermanshah competitiveness, they are output variables, and 21 variables are in this group.

One of the most important factors affecting these variables, which have been identified as dependence variables in Kermanshah’s competitiveness, is planning management at the local and macro levels. The variables of service sector capacity, foreign activities, national and transnational comparative advantage, and the number of exports of goods and services, if considered, can also act as variables affecting other factors. Still, now they have acted as variables influenced by other variables. Citizens’ social solidarity, women’s employment rate, men’s employment rate, utilization of recycling technology, population density, greenhouse gas emissions, population composition, and domestic dependence on the same dependence variables are also affected by other variables. For example, the employment rate of women and men as a dependent variable can be reinforced by capacities in domestic and foreign tourism, agriculture, and natural resources. If it is desirable, this variable (employment rate for men and women) affects the migration rate from Kermanshah. Consequently, the migration variable also plays a role in influencing the density and composition of the population.

4.2.4. Independent Variables

Figure 4 shows the independent variables of Kermanshah’s competitiveness. These variables have low effectiveness and dependency, and out of 54 variables, only seven variables are in this group, which includes the following variables:

Social capital (SC2), Demographic composition (SC3), Feeling of security of life (SEC1), Marginalization and informal settlement (SEC3), The amount of greenhouse gas production (ENV6), Kermanshah population rank in Iran (MIN2), Cooperation with border countries (MIN3)

These variables had the least significant relationship with Kermanshah’s competitiveness, because they do not stop the main variable nor cause its evolution and progress in Kermanshah’s competitiveness. However, in this category, two categories of variables should be considered: discrete variables located near the origin of the coordinates of the graph. It is understood that the evolution of these variables has nothing to do with the current competitiveness Kermanshah. They can be removed from the system.

The variables of ethnic diversity and religious diversity in Kermanshah can be considered as a part of this group. Still, in sustainable competitiveness, these two factors can affect the domestic and foreign tourism variables (which are the most critical factors affecting Kermanshah competitiveness). Another group of independent variables is secondary leverage variables. Although these variables are completely independent, they are more effective and less dependent. They are located at the top of the diagonal line of the graph as a criterion. Variables of men’s literacy rate and women’s literacy rate are in this group of variables. According to the 2011 census, the literacy rate of men and women in Kermanshah was 86.61 and 76.7%, which, compared to the average of-Cities that have more than 500,000 population in Iran, where the literacy rate was 88.07% for men and 80.63% for women, respectively, is 1.46% lower for men and 3.93% lower for women. The literacy rate of men and women as an effective variable of socio-cultural competitiveness of Kermanshah can affect other variables such as security, management, demographic composition, and the employment rate of men and women.

4.2.5. Very Strong Direct and Indirect Effects

Figure 5 and Figure 6 show the very strong direct and indirect effects of Kermanshah’s competitiveness variables on each other. The extent of direct and indirect effects of Kermanshah’s competitiveness variables on each other can be examined at five levels: very weak to very strong effects, weak to very strong effects, relatively strong to very strong effects, strong to very very strong effects, and very strong effects.

As can be seen in Figure 5, the variable role of Kermanshah in the power structure of Iran is one of the factors that has had very strong direct effects on other variables of Kermanshah’s competitiveness. A clear example of this is the lack of attention to solving the dust problem as a global problem, resulting in a sharp reduction in the number of clean and healthy air days in Kermanshah. The integration of Kermanshah’s urban management is another variable that has had very strong effects on other variables of Kermanshah’s competitiveness. Domestic investment; foreign security; and local, regional, and national programs and plans are other variables with very strong direct effects on Kermanshah’s competitiveness. They are influenced by variables such as the border and cooperation with Iraq, domestic and foreign tourism capacities, and the role of Kermanshah in the power structure of Iran. Furthermore, the integration of management; utilization of the local expert force; and local, regional, and national programs and plans are other variables that directly affect managers’ expertise. This expertise of managers has strong direct effects on the role of Kermanshah in the structure of national power, playing the role of a metropolis in the western region of Iran, domestic tourism, and attracting domestic investors.

The very strong indirect effects of Kermanshah’s competitiveness variables on each other are shown in Figure 6. As can be seen, some variables that had very strong direct effects on other variables of Kermanshah’s competitiveness also had very strong indirect effects. Kermanshah’s role in Iran’s power structure, the number of domestic investments, and local programs and plans indicate the importance and key nature of these variables. This is because this group of variables, among the 54 variables affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah, had the strongest direct and indirect effects on other variables and reciprocally accepted effects. Variables of Foreign investment, comparative advantage at the national level, comparative advantage at the transnational level, women’s employment rate, adequate water resources, and potential job opportunities are other variables with very strong effects on other variables of Kermanshah’s competitiveness. In the meantime, please pay attention to the adequate variable of water and soil resources as one of the variables with very strong effects, as it is very important because it almost directly and indirectly affects other variables of competitiveness. Variables of benefiting from national and transnational advantages; development of agricultural, industrial, and service sectors; export of goods and services; and domestic and foreign tourism are some of the cases that can, directly and indirectly, affect Kermanshah soil and water potentials.

Potential job opportunities in Kermanshah are variables that have very strong effects on variables such as the number of domestic investments, domestic and foreign tourism, and capacities of the natural resources sector, and they accept very strong effects from the variable of private sector participation. Considering the potential that exists in the city of Kermanshah, taking advantage of existing job opportunities can solve problems such as unemployment, increase the employment rate of men and women, prevent the burning of opportunities and destruction of resources and facilities, and thus improve Kermanshah’s competitive position among other national metropolises.

As the variable of the role of Kermanshah in the power structure has had very strong direct effects on other variables (Figure 5), it indirectly has very strong effects on the 13 main factors of competitiveness in Kermanshah. These variables include domestic investment, foreign investment, transnational advantage, national advantage, natural resources, foreign tourism, overseas activities, women’s employment, immigration, cooperation with Iraq, service sector, industry sector, and potential job activities. These variables themselves have very strong indirect effects on other competitiveness variables, e.g., the domestic investment, which has very strong indirect effects on 14 variables. Most of these influential variables, which also have an economic nature, indicate the high importance of the political–economic aspects of the Kermanshah metropolis at the national level.

5. Analysis and Discussion

Findings indicated that out of a total of 54 variables affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah, 11 variables were in this group, which were the role of Kermanshah city in the power structure (MIN1); Geographical and strategic location (MIN4); National, regional, and local plans (MIN5); Management (MIN6); Clean and healthy air (ENV1); Potential sources of soil and water (ENV2); Security of space (SEC2); the agricultural sector (ECO7); Domestic tourism (ECO16); Foreign tourism (ECO17); Sustainable sources of income (ECO19). The importance of each of these factors is:

Management: together with specialized and integrated management, it is one of the key driving variables of economic, cultural, social, environmental, and security competitiveness in Kermanshah (Figure 5 and Figure 6). As seen, integrated and specialized management affects the role of Kermanshah in the structure of power, domestic security, and attracting domestic investors. Instability in urban management of Kermanshah is one of the factors that has faced the efficiency of management with major challenges, such as delays in the implementation of projects, suburbanization, and change of use of agricultural lands [42]. For example, the city of Kermanshah had 10 mayors and heads of municipalities from 2006 to 2016. This constant change of mayors and the application of different tastes will lead to issues such as unfinished and changing the nature of urban projects, some of which will include socio-cultural projects. Considering the current management trend in Kermanshah, the results of which can be seen in the competitiveness of Kermanshah in economic, cultural, social, environmental, and security dimensions, three possible situations for the future of Kermanshah city management, as a key driving variable of competitiveness, are conceivable. In the most desirable case, management will move towards specialization and being program-oriented. In the middle case, management will proceed with the current trend with the current position of competitiveness. Furthermore, in the third and most unfavorable case, management will be inefficient and anti-development.

Clean and healthy air: Considering that one of the most important factors of environmental competitiveness is the amount of clean and healthy air during a year, this factor can be considered as one of the most crucial driving variables of environmental competitiveness in Kermanshah. Clean and healthy air will guarantee citizens’ health and attract domestic and foreign tourism, which will improve the economic and cultural–social competitiveness of Kermanshah. For the transnational issues regarding the dust crisis, in general, three situations can be predicted for the amount of clean and healthy air in Kermanshah in the future. In the best case, with the management of the dust crisis and traffic control and the use of public transportation, including the Kermanshah monorail, the number of clean and healthy air days in Kermanshah will increase. In the second case, the current trend will continue, and the number of days of bad and unhealthy air will increase day by day. In the worst scenario, there will be a crisis of bad and unhealthy air, and among its consequences will be the spread of diseases and forced migrations.

Soil and water sources: Kermanshah, with an average rainfall of 439 mm per year and 164,634 hectares of forests, rangelands, and good desert phenomena, is in a much more favorable situation than other cities with a population of more than 500,000.

Given the severe water crisis in Iran, the stability of water resources, population growth, and insufficient attention to water resources management [43], soil and water sources are one of the factors affecting the level of competitiveness of places (especially in the future). According to the distribution map of water resources, part of Kermanshah province is in a good condition, and the other part is under water stress. This opportunity can be fully exploited first for the city of Kermanshah and the whole province of Kermanshah and then for the neighboring provinces and other provinces facing water shortage crises with proper management, planning, and formulation of optimal normative scenarios. Therefore, the three possible situations of Kermanshah’s soil and water resources to make Kermanshah competitive are as follows: In the first case, the optimal and planned use of soil and soil resources in Kermanshah will be executed, and this opportunity will be used to improve the position and competitiveness of Kermanshah. In the second case, with little exploitation, the current situation will continue, or in the third case, there will be a water and soil resources crisis.

Life’s security (feeling of security): Space security and feeling of security are two basic factors to improve the competitiveness of Kermanshah, because it has direct and indirect effects on other competitive variables. For example, a high feeling of security can be a key driving variable for attracting domestic and foreign tourism and attracting domestic and foreign investors. On the other hand, security itself depends on the socio-cultural and economic variables of competitiveness. One of the Kermanshah vision document goals is to establish and achieve social security. According to these cases, there are three possible futures for Kermanshah competitiveness for the factor of life security (feeling of security). In the most desirable case, the feeling of security and the mental and objective image of domestic and foreign tourists and investors towards the security of life in Kermanshah increases. The status quo will continue in the second situation, and a sense of relative security will remain. In the third case, the insecurity of life will be established objectively and mentally for individuals.

Agriculture sector: Kermanshah has four climates, including cold winters and dry summers, semi-arid and cool steppe climates, semi-arid and warm steppe climates, and mild winters and hot and dry summers. The Zagros Mountains are located in this province. The average height of mountainous areas is 2000–3000 m, and in some areas, peaks above 3000 m can be seen. The difference in height between the highest and lowest point of the province is more than 3270 m, and the lowest point of the province is Somar, at 270 m above sea level. Of the province’s total area, an area equivalent to 753,900 hectares is allocated to plain lands. Most of these plains play a major role in the production of agricultural products and the province’s economy in terms of integrity, size, and fertility. Kermanshah metropolis, as the center of Kermanshah province, can play a role as a regional exchange center for agricultural products throughout Iran and even at the transnational level. Therefore, considering these potentials, three possible futures for the development of the Kermanshah agricultural sector, as a key driving variable affecting the competitiveness dimensions of Kermanshah, are conceivable. In the most favorable case, the agricultural sector’s potential has been maximally exploited, and Kermanshah will play a role as an exporter hub of agricultural products. In the second case, if the current situation continues, Kermanshah will have a limited boom in agricultural development. Furthermore, in the most unfavorable case, which is the third case, in the metropolis of Kermanshah, not only the opportunities of the agricultural sector will not be exploited, but also food security in Kermanshah will face a major challenge and require the import of various agricultural products.

Natural and human tourism capacities (domestic and foreign): Tourism is very important in the development and sustainability of countries [44,45], and through job creation, it improves economic development [46]. Kermanshah province, in general, and Kermanshah city, in particular, have provided the possibility that Kermanshah city has the potential to become one of the national and regional tourism hubs.

The geographical location of Kermanshah has provided many opportunities in the field of tourism so that it has a strategic role in communication in the west of Iran. In addition to being a centralized city at the provincial level, it is also centralized at the regional level. The Karbala Highway, which connects Iran to Iraq through the Khosravi border, passes through the city of Kermanshah and has strengthened its service and commercial role. In Kermanshah province, 3600 historical monuments have been identified so far, of which 1936 monuments have been registered on the list of national monuments, and the Bistoon historical collection has been registered on the list of world monuments. In addition, 100 monuments have been identified as monuments that can be registered on the list of national natural monuments of Iran. Out of this number, 40 monuments have been registered nationally, which is a significant number, because 80 natural monuments have been registered nationally in Iran so far [47]. Considering the effects of tourism on different dimensions of competitiveness, especially in economic and cultural–social dimensions, is considered a key driving variable of Kermanshah’s competitiveness.

Given the above, it seems that three situations are possible for the province in the future. In the first case, the development of tourism will continue at the current pace. In the second case, with expert management, the process of gradual development of domestic and foreign tourism will be accelerated and cause its development and prosperity. Alternatively, in the most unfavorable case, ignoring the tourism capacities will provide grounds for stagnation and destruction of tourism opportunities.

Sustainable sources of income: Kermanshah’s geographical location and natural and human characteristics have provided many opportunities for Kermanshah to use sustainable income sources. Having the border with Iraq and having domestic and foreign tourist attractions are among these opportunities. Furthermore, among the visionary goals of Kermanshah province, emphasizing the role of Kermanshah city is the “Establishment of international medical and academic centers” to attract medical and academic tourism of neighboring countries and organize historical, natural, cultural, and religious tourism chains, along with economic and commercial prosperity, in such way that provides adequate demand and need for appropriate and superior welfare-accommodation services in the region [48]. These cases have provided the grounds for the use of sustainable sources of income for Kermanshah, the extent of which is used as a driving force affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah with three possible situations in the future. The first possibility will be the maximum and planned use of sustainable income sources, which will positively affect the competitiveness of Kermanshah. The second possibility is the continuation of the current trend and indifference to the use of sustainable income sources. The third possibility, and the most unfavorable case, will be the destruction of sustainable sources of income, which will weaken Kermanshah’s competitive position.

The role of Kermanshah in the power structure: Considering the influence of political powers and officials in the development of cities and the direction of decisions, especially at the national levels, the greater the national power structure of cities, especially metropolises, the more effective it will be in various dimensions of competitiveness, especially economic competitiveness. The city of Kermanshah does not have a strong role in the current situation of the national power structure, and if this trend continues, its status and competitiveness will worsen day by day, but if its role in the national power structure becomes more prominent, its effects on urban competitiveness will increase.

The geographical and strategic location of Kermanshah: Kermanshah has long been of extraordinary importance and value in terms of communication; as two important and famous roads (Royal Road) and (Silk Road) have passed through it, and after Islam, the famous road from Baghdad to Khorasan, which is known as the Great Road of Khorasan, has passed through Kermanshah. Kermanshah region has been known as the gateway to Asia [49]. The geographical location and human characteristics of Kermanshah province have provided countless opportunities and capabilities for all-around competitiveness in the Kermanshah metropolis. The type of management and human actions can turn these opportunities into serious threats to destroy the opportunities of Kermanshah, which will affect other provinces as well.

Plans and programs: Developing a plan and program in accordance with the natural and human characteristics of Kermanshah while converging and orienting to spatial, social, and economic development programs and providing a roadmap for success in all Kermanshah development programs helps to achieve the desired competitive position of Kermanshah (according to natural and human potentials) and to play a role as a regional center in the west of Iran for the realization of legal and upstream documents, especially the goals of Iran’s 1404 Vision Document. In addition, it will reduce the intensity of centralization in planning and policy-making by identifying Kermanshah’s competitiveness capabilities and, on a national scale, modifying the role of the national metropolis of Tehran and reducing regional inequalities. Developing a program to improve the competitiveness of Kermanshah in the long vision in various dimensions of competitiveness (economic, social, environmental, and security) will enhance the competitiveness of Kermanshah; otherwise, it will burn opportunities and degrade its current competitiveness.

6. Conclusions

With the development of the city and urbanization and the more complex urban issues, efforts and research for economic, environmental, cultural–social, and security competitiveness of the city are necessary for the sustainability of cities. Assessing the index of economic, environmental, cultural, socio-social, and security competitiveness in cities, which is done using its specific criteria, is not only a quantitative study related to assessing and measuring economic, environmental, socio-cultural, and security criteria or determining the competitive position of cities in these dimensions. Rather, it is a continuous need and trend to recognize and use urban competitiveness’s economic, environmental, cultural, social, and security capacities to play a transnational role and develop and balance in the national and regional space.

The explanation of scientific literature showed that different factors should explain urban competitiveness, and one or more indices cannot fully define it. Therefore, it is necessary to measure different dimensions of competitiveness. Previous research and current research have proven that competitiveness measurement with different indices helps to solve the problem of measuring the complexities of urban competitiveness. Economic competitiveness is considered the basis and main dimension in urban, regional, national, and international competitiveness studies. However, because many factors affect the competitiveness of places and especially economic competitiveness, therefore, in addition to the economic dimension of competitiveness, it is necessary to pay special attention to other dimensions of urban competitiveness, including environmental, cultural, social, security, political, technological, etc.

After the 1990s, when Michael Porter introduced a different definition of competitiveness and introduced it from the enterprise level to the level of places (country, regions, and cities), despite the opposition of thinkers such as Krugman, the attention of many theorists and planners in urban economics, especially planners regional and urban development, were drawn to other dimensions of competitiveness. In the present study, by acknowledging the theoretical framework and methodology of the research, along with the various dimensions of competitiveness, the security dimension was introduced as a missing link in urban competitiveness studies. By defining variables to measure cities’ security competitiveness, the effects of the competitive advantage of security on other dimensions of competitiveness, especially economic competitiveness, are explained in Figure 7.

Given the nature of urban competitiveness, which is multidimensional, it is necessary to avoid one-directional behavior in urban competitiveness planning and to pay attention to the social, cultural, environmental, and security dimensions of urban competitiveness in an integrated manner. In addition, since local futures form national and global futures, in a transnational dimension to compete with other competitors, the position and role of each city must be determined by its relative capacity. This is because improving the level of competitiveness of each city will eventually lead to improving the regional competitiveness of Iran (which is one of the goals of the vision document) as well as global competitiveness.

A total of 11 key factors will be the main actors of Kermanshah’s future competitiveness, some of which in upstream documents have also been considered, including (the Islamic Republic of Iran Vision Document, Kermanshah Development Vision Document, National Development Document of Kermanshah Province, and Basic Development Theory of Kermanshah Province). However, the parallel works done in these projects on the one hand and the weak implementation process on the other hand, and also the unfavorable flexibility of these projects in the case of Kermanshah (including the removal of Kermanshah from the list of metropolises with a population of one million people), has made these plans ineffective.

The final model of Kermanshah’s future competitiveness will be that in the first stage, if the government (administration and government structure), in the form of national, regional, and local programs, pays attention to the competitive advantages of places, especially large cities and eliminating regional inequalities. Furthermore, in the next stage, local government (officials, managers, and all planners as the executive department) will need to act in order to operationalize the competitiveness of Kermanshah. With the correct use of opportunities and potentials (economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and security), in the 20-year horizon, Kermanshah, will be a city with national and even transnational competitiveness. Otherwise, in addition to burning opportunities and destroying the capabilities of Kermanshah, other places adjacent to Kermanshah province will gradually be involved in challenges, tensions, and economic, cultural, social, environmental, security, and other crises Figure 8.

These topics suggest to researchers that research on tourism competitiveness, comparing competitiveness between cities at the national and international level, and regional competitiveness is essential.