Air Pollution Control: An Analysis of China’s Industrial Off-Peak Production Policy through the Quasi-Natural Experiment Method
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Policy Background
3. Data and Methods
3.1. Data
3.1.1. Explained Variables
3.1.2. Explanatory Variable
3.1.3. Control Variables
3.2. Methods
3.2.1. DDD Model Specifications
3.2.2. DD Model Specifications
4. Results
4.1. Effect on Air Pollution
4.2. Effect on Clinker Price
4.3. Placebo Test
5. Back-of-the-Envelope Analysis
5.1. Total Pollutant Mass
5.2. Market Cost
5.3. Marginal Cost
6. Discussions and Policy Implications
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
References
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Variables | Unit | Sources | |
---|---|---|---|
SO2 | SO2 column density | M2T1NXFLX_V5.12.4 | |
NO2 | NO2 column density | POMINO | |
Temperature | Air temperature scale | °C | M2T1NXFLX_V5.12.4 |
Precipitation | Total precipitation | M2T1NXFLX_V5.12.4 | |
Wind | Wind speed | m/s | M2T1NXFLX_V5.12.4 |
Eastwind | Eastward wind | m/s | M2T1NXFLX_V5.12.4 |
Northwind | Northward wind | m/s | M2T1NXFLX_V5.12.4 |
Price | Clinker price per ton | yuan/ton | China Cements Website |
Investment | Fixed-asset investment per capita | yuan/capita | China City Statistical Yearbook |
Cement | Cement output proportion | % | National Bureau of Statistics |
GDP | GDP per capita | yuan/capita | China City Statistical Yearbook |
Second | Secondary industry | % | China City Statistical Yearbook |
Fiscal | Fiscal expenditure per capita | yuan/capita | China City Statistical Yearbook |
Age | Facility age | Year | List of Cement Clinker Enterprises |
Variables | N | Mean | Min | Max | SD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO2 | 666,019 | 30,796.58 | 27.54 | 298,950.6 | 29,129.82 |
NO2 | 376,004 | 8765.09 | 0.039 | 2,852,611 | 22,869.98 |
Temperature | 729,714 | 0.08 | −0.92 | 1.33 | 0.1 |
Precipitation | 729,714 | 0.03 | 0 | 4.18 | 0.1 |
Wind | 729,714 | 5.33 | 0.92 | 27.94 | 2.04 |
Eastwind | 729,714 | 0.28 | −18.73 | 17.11 | 3.29 |
Northwind | 729,714 | −0.17 | −19.76 | 14.91 | 3.58 |
Price | 710 | 232.06 | 147.19 | 430.14 | 43.03 |
Investment | 710 | 39,475.85 | 4074.76 | 219,392.8 | 24,961.99 |
Cement | 710 | 0.049 | 0.007 | 0.078 | 0.016 |
GDP | 710 | 52,448.29 | 11,383.02 | 277,857.5 | 38,547.08 |
Second | 710 | 49.65 | 24.81 | 73.45 | 8.52 |
Fiscal | 710 | 7446.04 | 2012.64 | 36,840.25 | 4081.76 |
Age | 707 | 9.41 | 1 | 24 | 4.27 |
Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A | ||||
SO2 | −1762 *** | −1863 *** | −1920 *** | −1936 *** |
(252.0) | (251.8) | (232.9) | (233.2) | |
N | 648,684 | 648,684 | 648,684 | 648,684 |
R2 | 0.610 | 0.611 | 0.649 | 0.649 |
Panel B | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
NO2 | −2712 *** | −2807 *** | −3132 *** | −3212 *** |
(229.6) | (228.7) | (231.3) | (227.5) | |
N | 370,352 | 370,352 | 370,352 | 370,352 |
R2 | 0.138 | 0.140 | 0.148 | 0.149 |
City FE | X | X | X | X |
Year FE | X | X | X | X |
Month FE | X | X | X | X |
Month-Year FE | X | X | X | X |
Month-City FE Year Fes-City FE | X X | X X | X X | X X |
Weathers | X | X | ||
DOW FE-Weathers | X | X | ||
DOW FE-Season FE DOW FE-Region FE | X X | X X | X X | |
DOY-Weathers | X | X | ||
DOY-Season FE | X | X | X | |
DOY-Region FE Trend | X | X | X X | |
Cluster at city-month | X | X | X | X |
(1) | (2) | (3) | |
---|---|---|---|
Log(price) | Clinker | Clinker | Clinker |
Treatment | 0.0845 *** | 0.0948 *** | 0.100 *** |
(0.0194) | (0.0187) | (0.0188) | |
Investment | −6.28 × 10−7 | −1.25 × 10−6 | −1.22 × 10−6 |
(7.71 × 10−7) | (8.37 × 10−7) | (8.49 × 10−7) | |
Cement | 7.36 × 10−6 | 3.01 × 10−6 | 1.50 × 10−6 |
(7.21 × 10−6) | (6.96 × 10−6) | (6.88 × 10−6) | |
GDP | −1.14 × 10−6 | −1.88 × 10−6 | |
(1.57 × 10−6) | (1.63 × 10−6) | ||
Second | 0.00977 *** | 0.0103 *** | |
(0.00246) | (0.00246) | ||
Fisical | 8.92 × 10−6 | 1.26 × 10−5 | |
(9.34 × 10−6) | (9.44 × 10−6) | ||
Age | 0.0511 ** | ||
(0.0222) | |||
Age square | 1.88 × 10−6 ** | ||
(8.15 × 10−7) | |||
Facility FE | Y | Y | Y |
Year FE | Y | Y | Y |
N | 710 | 710 | 707 |
R2 | 0.817 | 0.825 | 0.828 |
(1) | (2) | (3) | |
---|---|---|---|
NO2 | SO2 | Clinker Price | |
Panel A: Placebo test | |||
Placebo effect | −330.6 | −334.5 | −0.00835 |
(368.1) | (470.3) | (0.0181) | |
Control variables | Y | Y | Y |
Fixed effects | Y | Y | Y |
N | 18,573 | 21,312 | 707 |
R2 | 0.798 | 0.974 | 0.816 |
Panel B: Results of 200 iterations of placebo sampling, number of estimates landing above, below, and within 95 percent confidence interval around 0 | |||
Significant | |||
Above 0 | Below 0 | Insignificant | |
NO2 | 1 | 14 | 185 |
SO2 | 0 | 0 | 200 |
Clinker price | 2 | 24 | 174 |
Panel C: Results of 200 iterations of placebo sampling for NO2, SO2 and clinker price | |||
Province | Year | Market Cost (Million RMB yuan) | SO2 Reduction (kton) | NO2 Reduction (kton) | Marginal Cost (k RMB yuan/ton) | Pollution Discharge Fee (k RMB yuan/ton) | Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heilongjiang | 2015 | 344.48 | 85.75 | 144.41 | 1.49669 | 1.26 | 1.187849 |
Jilin | 2014 | - | 5.74 | 9.66 | - | ||
2015 | - | 25.89 | 43.61 | - | |||
Liaoning | 2014 | 697.84 | 1.19 | 2.00 | 218.865 | 1.26 | 173.7024 |
2016 | 516.66 | 32.00 | 53.90 | 6.014622 | 1.26 | 4.77351 | |
2017 | 684.25 | 76.06 | 128.10 | 3.351425 | 1.26 | 2.659861 | |
Inner Mongolia | 2016 | 455.52 | 56.13 | 94.54 | 3.023157 | 1.26 | 2.399331 |
2017 | 458.75 | 227.75 | 383.57 | 0.750432 | 1.26 | 0.595581 | |
Ningxia | 2015 | - | 1.76 | 2.96 | - | ||
2016 | - | 10.20 | 17.19 | - | |||
Qinghai | 2015 | 235.10 | 1.31 | 2.21 | 66.86795 | 1.26 | 53.0698 |
2016 | 234.96 | 1.53 | 2.57 | 57.28096 | 1.26 | 45.46108 | |
2017 | 211.18 | 5.16 | 8.70 | 15.23483 | 1.26 | 12.09113 | |
Shandong | 2017 | 2135.81 | 32.95 | 55.49 | 24.14944 | 1.26 | 19.16622 |
Shanxi | 2015 | 328.15 | 21.70 | 36.54 | 5.634655 | 1.26 | 4.471949 |
2016 | 409.30 | 31.32 | 52.74 | 4.869182 | 1.26 | 3.86443 | |
2017 | 547.56 | 36.97 | 62.26 | 5.518282 | 1.26 | 4.379589 | |
Shannxi | 2015 | 695.07 | 10.86 | 18.29 | 23.85042 | 1.26 | 18.9289 |
2017 | 801.07 | 23.58 | 39.71 | 12.65719 | 1.26 | 10.04539 | |
Jiangsu | 2017 | 1229.17 | 4.56 | 7.68 | 100.461 | 1.26 | 79.73093 |
Jiangxi | 2017 | 1276.13 | - | - | - | ||
Hebei | 2015 | 785.74 | 18.66 | 31.43 | 15.68739 | 2.40 | 6.536414 |
2016 | 869.58 | 37.32 | 62.86 | 8.680605 | 2.40 | 3.616919 | |
2017 | 1220.91 | 51.50 | 86.74 | 8.831621 | 2.40 | 3.679842 | |
Henan | 2015 | 1236.29 | 18.34 | 30.89 | 25.11237 | 1.26 | 19.93046 |
2016 | 1161.20 | 23.48 | 39.55 | 18.42229 | 1.26 | 14.62086 | |
2017 | 1809.84 | 25.94 | 43.70 | 25.98827 | 1.26 | 20.62561 | |
Zhejiang | 2017 | 1150.13 | 4.54 | 7.64 | 94.46524 | 1.26 | 74.97241 |
Hubei | 2017 | 948.93 | - | - | - | ||
Hunan | 2017 | 1320.12 | - | - | - | ||
Guangdong | 2017 | 1947.84 | - | - | - | ||
Guangxi | 2017 | 1355.08 | - | - | - | ||
Fujian | 2017 | 893.37 | 15.95 | 26.86 | 20.86668 | 1.26 | 16.56086 |
Sichuan | 2017 | 1820.71 | - | - | - | ||
Chongqing | 2017 | 892.20 | - | - | - | ||
Average | 32.00332 | 24.88 |
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Xu, X.; Wang, Q.; Hu, H.; Wang, X. Air Pollution Control: An Analysis of China’s Industrial Off-Peak Production Policy through the Quasi-Natural Experiment Method. Sustainability 2021, 13, 4808. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13094808
Xu X, Wang Q, Hu H, Wang X. Air Pollution Control: An Analysis of China’s Industrial Off-Peak Production Policy through the Quasi-Natural Experiment Method. Sustainability. 2021; 13(9):4808. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13094808
Chicago/Turabian StyleXu, Xindi, Qinyun Wang, Haichao Hu, and Xinjun Wang. 2021. "Air Pollution Control: An Analysis of China’s Industrial Off-Peak Production Policy through the Quasi-Natural Experiment Method" Sustainability 13, no. 9: 4808. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13094808