Who Will Establish New Trade Relations? Looking for Potential Relationship in International Nickel Trade
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data
2.2. Method
2.2.1. Establishment of the Nickel Ore Trade Network
2.2.2. Link Prediction Model
- (1)
- Common Neighbor (CN algorithm).
- (2)
- Preferential Attachment (PA algorithm).
- (3)
- Adamic/Adar (AA algorithm).
- (4)
- Resource Allocation (RA algorithm)
2.2.3. International Nickel Ore Trade Analysis Process
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Data
3.2. Validation of Algorithm Effectiveness
3.3. Further Assessment of Potential Trade
3.4. The Division of Trade Roles
3.5. Exploring Link Rules for Potential Trade
- (1)
- In the international nickel trade, countries that have established cooperation relations over a decade are tend to have a disposition to continue trade cooperation in the future. Among the 22 pairs of trading countries successfully identified, 11 groups of countries have experienced trade cooperation, indicating that countries participating in nickel ore trade have a disposition to cooperate with familiar partners. In Table 3, there are 14 pairs of countries that have never been successfully forecasted, and 10 have never experienced trade cooperation; that is, if there has been no trade cooperation between two countries, we believe that they are unlikely to cooperate.
- (2)
- For potential trade links, trade in nickel ore is unlikely to occur between two net exporters. According to the PA score results obtained by calculation, there is no case in which two countries are net exporters among the top ten potential links of each year. Most net exporters are rich in nickel ore resources and are more inclined to trade with net importers of nickel ore.
- (3)
- In terms of potential trade relations, a net importing country and a net exporting country have a disposition to have trade relations, such as China and Spain, and Germany and Spain. In addition, Figure 6 shows that net importer China and net exporter Denmark, and net importer China and importer and exporter Indonesia, though not establishing trade relations after potential links, used to maintain trade cooperation.
4. Conclusions
- (1)
- In the top ten potential trade contacts, countries involved in the nickel ore trade are more likely to reestablish cooperation with countries they have previously traded with. The role of a country in international nickel ore also affects the establishment of trade cooperation. For instance, if the roles of two countries are different, they are more inclined to establish trade links, while for two net exporters, there is little possibility of nickel trade occurring between them. In addition, countries with a large number of existing cooperative partners prefer to establish new cooperation. Therefore, in the known potential nickel ore trade relations, we can also first identify countries that are more likely to establish trade cooperation based on the number of existing trading partners.
- (2)
- Figure 7 lists potential trade relations for 2015 to 2019 that were not predicted to succeed. These country pairs are inclined to have cooperation within next few years. Our purpose is to provide references for governments to find new trading partners and not to predict the specific time at which trade will occur. Under the trade rules shown in the previous sections, we predict that China and India, China and Italy, China and Denmark, and China and the United States are most inclined to establish cooperation within few years. On the one hand, for each of these pairs, one country is a net trade importer, and the other is a net trade exporter. On the other hand, more than half of global nickel consumption occurs in China. China has numerous trading partners and is more inclined to cooperate with other countries. Among these countries, although the United States and China are net importers of trade, they have maintained trade cooperation in the past and are more inclined to cooperate again. Since Indonesia is a significant nickel exporter globally, the likelihood of this country importing nickel ore from other countries is very low. Therefore, we believe that China will not export nickel ore to Indonesia in the next few years and that trade between the countries will not occur. In addition, under the influence of Indonesia’s export ban on nickel-aluminum ore, one of China’s main sources of nickel ore has been removed, and China will thus be more inclined to seek diversification in trading partners and to cooperate with other countries.
- (3)
- This article mainly has two aspects of practical significance. First, when the nickel ore trading environment changes, such as through demand for diverse trading partners or the breakdown of existing trading relationships, governments of various countries can quickly find new cooperative partners according to the predicted potential links, which can prevent the supply problems of military, new energy and other related industries caused by demand interruption and ensure the orderly development of related industries. In addition, a country that trades in nickel ore can establish more feasible trade relations in advance from the research presented in this article to secure more trading partners. In this way, such a country can guarantee the diversity of its trading partners and reduce the risks presented by certain countries. The risks brought about by the termination of trade can quickly establish new trade relations when other risks protect the security of a country’s nickel ore supplies.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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No. | Country A | Country B | PA Value | Type of the Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | China | Germany | 768 | P |
2 | China | Japan | 288 | P |
3 | China | South Africa | 288 | P |
4 | China | United Kingdom | 288 | P |
5 | Germany | Rep. of Korea | 288 | P |
6 | China | India | 256 | T |
7 | China | Australia | 256 | P |
8 | China | Finland | 224 | T |
9 | China | Botswana | 224 | P |
10 | China | Spain | 224 | P |
11 | China | Brazil | 224 | P |
12 | Germany | South Africa | 216 | P |
13 | China | Czech Rep. | 192 | P |
14 | China | Italy | 192 | P |
15 | China | Switzerland | 192 | P |
Number | Country A | Country B |
---|---|---|
1 | China | Belgium |
2 | China | France |
3 | China | Germany |
4 | China | Finland |
5 | China | South Africa |
6 | China | Japan |
7 | China | Rep. of Korea |
8 | China | Brazil |
9 | China | USA |
10 | China | Malaysia |
No. | Country | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Final Role |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Canada | E | E | E | E | E | I | I | I | E | I | I |
2 | China | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I |
3 | Germany | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | E | I |
4 | Rep.of Korea | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I |
5 | Belgium | E | I | E | I | E | I | I | I | I | I | I |
6 | Australia | E | E | E | E | I | I | I | E | E | I | E |
7 | Japan | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I |
8 | Netherlands | I | I | I | I | E | I | E | I | I | I | I |
9 | TFYR of Macedonia | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I |
10 | Malaysia | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | I | E | E |
11 | Singapore | I | E | I | E | I | I | I | E | E | E | E |
12 | United Kingdom | E | I | E | E | E | I | I | E | I | I | I |
13 | France | I | I | I | I | I | E | E | I | E | E | E |
14 | Finland | E | I | I | E | I | I | I | I | I | I | I |
15 | India | E | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | E | E |
16 | South Africa | E | I | E | E | I | E | E | I | I | 0 | I |
17 | China, Hong Kong | E | E | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | E | E |
18 | Brazil | I | I | I | E | E | E | E | I | I | I | I |
19 | Italy | I | I | I | I | I | E | E | E | E | E | E |
20 | Botswana | E | I | I | I | I | I | I | E | E | I | I |
21 | Denmark | I | I | E | E | I | I | I | 0 | I | E | E |
22 | USA | E | E | E | E | E | E | I | E | E | I | I |
23 | Greece | I | I | I | I | I | I | I | E | E | E | E |
24 | Turkey | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | I | I | I |
25 | Spain | E | I | E | E | E | E | E | I | E | E | E |
26 | Switzerland | I | I | I | I | I | I | E | I | I | I | I |
27 | Indonesia | E | E | E | E | E | E | E | I | I | E | E |
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Yang, Q.; Dong, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Li, M.; Liang, Z.; Ding, C. Who Will Establish New Trade Relations? Looking for Potential Relationship in International Nickel Trade. Sustainability 2021, 13, 11681. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111681
Yang Q, Dong Z, Zhang Y, Li M, Liang Z, Ding C. Who Will Establish New Trade Relations? Looking for Potential Relationship in International Nickel Trade. Sustainability. 2021; 13(21):11681. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111681
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang, Qiaoran, Zhiliang Dong, Yichi Zhang, Man Li, Ziyi Liang, and Chao Ding. 2021. "Who Will Establish New Trade Relations? Looking for Potential Relationship in International Nickel Trade" Sustainability 13, no. 21: 11681. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111681