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Article

Developing a Parametric Cash Flow Forecasting Model for Complex Infrastructure Projects: A Comparative Study

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School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot Watt University Dubai Campus, Dubai Knowledge Park, Dubai P.O. Box 38103, United Arab Emirates
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School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast BT9 5AG, UK
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School of Engineering, Design and Built Environment, Western Sydney University, Sydney, NSW 2751, Australia
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Abdollah Shafieezadeh and António Abreu
Sustainability 2021, 13(20), 11305; https://doi.org/10.3390/su132011305
Received: 28 August 2021 / Revised: 28 September 2021 / Accepted: 3 October 2021 / Published: 13 October 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tolerance Management in Architecture, Engineering and Construction)
Forecasting the cash flow for infrastructure projects has not received much attention in the existing models. Moreover, disregarding the cost flow behaviour and proposing models that entail a relatively high dimensionality of inputs have been the main drawbacks of the existing models. This study proposes a heuristic cash flow forecasting (CFF) model for infrastructure projects, and it explores the underlying behaviour of the cost flow. The proposed model was validated by adopting a case study approach,the actual cost flow datasets were mined from a verified data system. The results invalidated the employment of a dominant heuristic rule with regard to a cost-flow-time relationship in infrastructure projects. On the other hand, a mathematical parameter-based comparison between the trends analysed from previous studies revealed that the cost flows of infrastructure projects procured through a design-bid-build (D-B-B) route behaved in a similar manner to building projects procured through a construction management route. This research contributes to the body of knowledge providing a method to enable infrastructure contractors to accurately forecast the required working capital through adding a new dimension for project classification by coining the term “the quaternary flow percentage”. In addition, this study indicates the importance of identifying the impact of root risks on the individual cost flow components rather than on the aggregated cost flow, which is a recommendation for future research. View Full-Text
Keywords: cash flow forecasting; cost flow components; risk; UAE infrastructure; heuristic modelling cash flow forecasting; cost flow components; risk; UAE infrastructure; heuristic modelling
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MDPI and ACS Style

Msawil, M.; Elghaish, F.; Seneviratne, K.; McIlwaine, S. Developing a Parametric Cash Flow Forecasting Model for Complex Infrastructure Projects: A Comparative Study. Sustainability 2021, 13, 11305. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132011305

AMA Style

Msawil M, Elghaish F, Seneviratne K, McIlwaine S. Developing a Parametric Cash Flow Forecasting Model for Complex Infrastructure Projects: A Comparative Study. Sustainability. 2021; 13(20):11305. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132011305

Chicago/Turabian Style

Msawil, Mahir, Faris Elghaish, Krisanthi Seneviratne, and Stephen McIlwaine. 2021. "Developing a Parametric Cash Flow Forecasting Model for Complex Infrastructure Projects: A Comparative Study" Sustainability 13, no. 20: 11305. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132011305

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