Employment or Development in a Semi-Peripheral Region: The Roadrunner Paradigm

Abstract

This study observes the relationship between employment policies and the evolution of the productive system, applying the theoretical framework of local development to an average-sized town in a semi-peripheral area of the European Union, during the period from 1975 to 2015. To do so, a case analysis was made of the outcomes of employment policies via their effects on the variables impacting on the productive fabric. The following data sources were used: grey literature related to public policies; published statistics on demographic variables and economic activity; and local press reports. The following results were obtained: (a) the responses of economic agents owe more to the changes in the international scenario than to employment policies; (b) it is essential to analyse the evolution of demographic factors to properly interpret the relationship between labour supply and demand. We conclude that (a) corporate culture significantly influences the success or otherwise of employment policies, and (b) in the semi-peripheral area discussed, unemployment is an endemic problem that successive cohesion and employment policies have failed to resolve. Therefore, the use of innovation-oriented theoretical and practical approaches should be reconsidered.

1. Introduction

1.1. The Context: Andalusia (Spain), an Extractive Economy with Low-Quality Institutional Capital

The aim of this research study is to observe the relationship between employment policies and the medium-term evolution of the productive system during the 40 years from 1975 to 2015. The explanatory factor taken is that of public policies, the spatial context is a medium-sized town in a semi-peripheral region of the European Union and the theoretical framework corresponds to the field of local development.

The Spanish region of Andalusia is highly illustrative of the (in)capacity of employment policies to resolve the problem of unemployment. Like the coyote and the roadrunner, locked in endless pursuit, the growth in absolute terms in the number of persons employed has been relentlessly accompanied by a parallel growth in the number of unemployed. According to population census data (our use of which is justified in the Materials and Methods section), between 1981 and 2011, the local population increased by 29.5 points (from 6,441,150 to 8,343,655 inhabitants) and the active population by 124.5 points (from 1,949,744 to 4,377,735), but the employed population rose by only 82.7 points (from 1,464,312 to 2,675,115). Consequently, the gap between these variables, that is, the unemployed population, widened by 250.7 points (from 485,432 to 1,702,620). According to Eurostat [1], in 2018 and 2019, the rate of unemployment in Andalusia was 23% and 21.2%, respectively, compared to 15.3% and 14.1%, respectively, in the country as a whole, and 7.3% and 6.7%, respectively, in the EU 27. The rate of unemployment in Andalusia, thus, is among the highest of the 20 NUTS 2 regions.

Considering the deployment of public policy instruments at various scales (European, national, regional and local) and types of content (infrastructure, business structures, sectoral) aimed directly or indirectly at balancing employment supply and demand, the present study seeks to identify the factors that may account for the continuing mismatch in this respect in the study region. To do so, we focus on Antequera, a medium-sized town in Andalusia (41,318 inhabitants [2], Figure 1) which can be considered significant in several respects. The first is epistemological: according to studies of local development, the mid-size nature of a town or city is positively associated with its prosperity [3]. The second relevant factor is that of its significance with respect to Andalusia as a whole. Technical studies [4,5] and academic studies [6] alike have reported that medium-sized inland towns are of fundamental importance for two reasons: firstly, due to their location (providing a counterpoint between the bustling coastal metropolitan areas and the sparsely-populated upland territories), and secondly, because these towns are representative of a part of the inadequate socioeconomic fabric that is associated with high levels of unemployment in the region [7]. Furthermore, several of these towns reflect specific cases of productive specialisation within the weakest sector of the Andalusian economy: that of manufacturing.

In this regard, various studies have been conducted in Antequera, viewing it as a laboratory in which to monitor the relationship between public policies, local responses to them and the resulting evolution of the local productive fabric between 1980 and 2011 [8,9].

According to Arenas [10], who applied Acemoglu’s theory of the quality of institutional capital, Andalusian capitalism takes the form of an extractive economy with low-quality institutional capital and hence a high level of unemployment. In view of these considerations, and after 40 years of theoretical and practical application of the principles of local development, we propose the following hypotheses:

• In order to identify the factors that might explain the continuing presence of unemployment and, therefore, the ineffectiveness of the employment policies applied, a detailed analysis is needed of the evolution of the local productive fabric. In this regard:

  1.1.

  The basic elements of the spatial-temporal matrix [11] (Taylor) can appropriately be used to contextualise the local-scale response to changes in the economic cycle.

  1.2.

  It is these responses by local agents that determine the effectiveness of public employment policies.

• In the last 20 years, the theoretical framework of local development has focused on the dependence of local development on an innovative business culture. However, this orientation must be complemented with the efficient incorporation of other processes that characterise the least innovative territories in the semi-peripheral regions of the European Union, which are precisely those where there is a predominance of economic activities with little need of skilled human resources or innovative business methods. Among others, the following processes should be considered:

  2.1.

  The incidence of cohesion policies (at their corresponding scales and manifestations) based on the publicly financed provision of equipment and infrastructure in the evolution of the productive fabric and on the generation of employment;

  2.2.

  Other recent effects of globalisation on the quality of employment, such as immigration, the real estate bubble and the growing impact of tourism activities.

1.2. Current State of Research: Local Development and Employment

Two selection criteria were applied in our overview of the current research in this field. The first concerned the epistemological framework employed, with regard to employment policies and local development. The second required us to compile a set of similar cases, to facilitate a discussion of the results obtained. Although the application of the two criteria should produce studies incorporating both standpoints, the results of our literature search, with respect to case analyses, were very inadequate. This unsatisfactory outcome is one of the weak points of the present investigation, as it hampers comparison and limits any subsequent discussion of the results obtained. Although these questions are discussed in more detail below, as an initial observation for our literature review, it is important to note that most previous studies focus on Marshallian districts, reflecting the identification between this approach and that of local development, as observed by Sforzi [12] (p. 36), who concluded that the theoretical bases of local development are not identified with the district’s production model, but are located within its theoretical paradigm. This distinction is all the more necessary when the object of study is the relationship between local development and employment. Which one is dependent? Is employment a manifestation of local productive development? Can there be local development without increased employment and increased employment without local development? Might changes in the size of the workforce provoke a mismatch between supply and demand of employment regardless of economic innovations? This torrent of questions arises from a chronological review of scholarly opinions on the association between local development and public policies explicitly based on the theoretical foundations of local development, on the one hand, and aimed at increasing employment on the other.

However, before addressing these particular questions, we must consider another premise raised by Sforzi [12] (p. 29): that the supposed weakness of local development does not have a recognised theoretical underpinning, but is discretionary, according to whoever makes use of it. In this respect, starting from the dialectic between good practices (in the context of public policies, at diverse scales) and a theoretical formalisation generated a posteriori that has inspired several research studies, we disagree with Sforzi’s view that local development arises from the initiatives of certain international organisations. In our understanding, local development is spurred by the spontaneous initiatives of local entities. This view has also been presented by DallaRossa [13] and Fua (apud Garofoli [14]), with respect to the recovery following the 1973 crisis, and represents a new perspective on socioeconomic changes, that of ‘bottom-up’ operations, in contrast to the ‘Big Push’ model of development policies, which has been questioned, at least in Spain and the rest of Europe, due to the limited achievements of so-called development hubs.

Various studies have summarised the public policies adopted to promote development, especially in the European Union [14,15]. In the Spanish context, most of such analyses have focused on the Autonomous Communities (regions [16,17,18]), provinces or municipalities [19] rather than the national picture. In their majority, these studies analyse the content of the instruments employed (by type of agency and objectives pursued), while few have attempted to determine the short or medium-term effectiveness of these instruments on the evolution of the variables of the productive fabric and even fewer have addressed their impact on patterns of employment. In our view, the interaction between academic and technical-applied discourse in this field is ineffective (a criticism that has indeed been made previously). In particular, when framing a new research project, scholars tend to prioritise the evaluation criteria of scientific journals, an approach that has resulted in a strengthening of quantitative methods [20,21]. Such academic methods may establish typologies to highlight differences in development patterns, but they do not address the causes of these differences from the perspective that we consider the most significant contribution of the weak epistemology of local development pointed out by Sforzi, namely, the roles played by the agents of economic change at the local scale. In this respect, Vázquez & Rodríguez-Cohard [15] and Albertos [22], among others, have affirmed the timeliness and necessity of case analysis, arguing that the further systematic expansion of empirical case studies and the progressive consolidation and reformulation of established theoretical foundations should be undertaken to ensure the continuing good health of scientific investigation.

As mentioned above, the scant volume of case analyses undertaken means that they are practically non-existent in high-level academic publications. Therefore, we are forced to rely on communications to the congresses closest at hand, i.e., those held in Spain, to obtain analogous research results. However, and as we discuss below, these papers tend to be focused more on policies than on their short- and medium-term impacts on the productive fabric.

We begin our study of these questions by contrasting the sociological approach to development, local or otherwise, with the economic approach. In our context, these questions are of interest because Andalusia was the object of a very early investigation by Bericat [23], a researcher who is involved in both the theoretical and the practical aspects of the question and who is a leading figure in the socioeconomic diagnostic research carried out by ESECA (the Andalusian Society for Economic Studies). Unfortunately, his proposals were omitted from the wide range of public instruments applied in this Autonomous Community. Bericat’s analysis is based on the paradigm that the attitudes of the population addressed by development policies directly impact on the effectiveness of these policies. This relationship had previously been discussed by Fromm (sociopsiconálisis, 1971) and Harrison (1987, both apud Bericat [23]). In Bericat’s [23] (p. 26) words (translated from the Spanish), “…although the social and productive structure of Andalusia has changed substantially, there is evidence of a cultural backwardness, a lack of adaptation that seriously limits the possibilities and potential for development in Andalusia. Economic development programmes and plans cannot, therefore, continue to omit the necessary modification of the productive culture in the region, since only persons of flesh and blood, and the groups they form, and the communities to which they belong, can achieve real, balanced and lasting development”. These words accurately presaged the conclusions drawn by González [24] 20 years later, since between 1986 and 2006, a set of instruments were deployed and public funds disbursed to reduce unemployment through innovation processes. However, in these processes, the application of policies to promote the construction of innovative environments was severely wanting. Extrapolating these considerations to the subject of our research, it is clear that the attempts made to reduce unemployment included proposals that required a cultural change. Unfortunately, such a change was not prioritised in the instruments applied during the 20 years considered. The view that the culture of the local environment is a determining factor in the success of development policies is related to the paradigm according to which place-based innovation is crucial to local competitiveness [12]. In our opinion, the concept of business culture spans both paradigms and brings them into convergence with Arenas’ proposal concerning the quality of institutional capital [10]. This concept (business culture) is based on attributes such as the networked organisation of companies, the interaction of training, research and production, common values of business behaviour [15,22] and shared attitudes towards innovation [16,24]. Other concepts, such as territorial intelligence and competitiveness among territories [25], are also present in this perspective.

Among the authors who have considered the role of this factor in local development, we examine Dematteis and Governa [26] in particular as excellent exponents of how business culture interacts with proposition 1.1 of our first hypothesis, that is, the fundamentals of the space-time matrix [11]. The terms in which these authors analyse the local–global interaction provide an ideal conceptual framework with which to determine the impact produced by changes in the international scenario on the ties between companies and the territories in which they operate. In their words, local cognitive capital, social capital and institutional capacity generate “the local network (which) acts as a selector and decoder of external stimuli, but also as an encoder of the potentialities of its milieu” [26] (p. 48). Moreover, identity is the basis of the local society’s autonomy to manage its own affairs: “Local autonomy, in turn, has a dual interpretation: on the one hand, it is the capacity/potential for action not only of the ‘controllers’ but also of the ‘controls’, but it is also the capacity of the local system to regulate itself, redefining the stimuli received from outside (Brown, 1992)”. In turn, this conception of autonomy is based on Foucault’s relational idea of power, according to which the essence of autonomy is that of “self-rule or control relative to external forces of domination” (Ibid.).

Chronological analysis facilitates the identification of the different paradigms that have been applied to the relationship between development and employment and to their expression in public policies. In this regard, we apply the approach described by Garofoli [14].

The first phase concerns the Italia di mezzo model of industrial development observed in the 1980s, which represents the first steps of local development, as a response to the recession following the 1973 oil crisis, in a context of tariff protectionism and the absence of international migratory movements. Garofoli made the following significant observation in this regard: (this model) “is derived without fractures and therefore with no confrontation between agriculture and industry, with no need for large public investments in infrastructure, and based on SMEs… This gave rise to productive and relatively cohesive social networks, often based on networks of implicit collaboration between companies, strong social integration and recognition of territorial identities, sufficiently coherent with public and private interventions and decisions, particularly in the sphere of social services, but also, on many occasions, with questions regarding the promotion of SMEs’ production, and sometimes, too, concerning solutions to training and work-related problems” [14] (p. 77). As we note in the Discussion and Conclusions section, this definition perfectly describes the context of the case study considered, until the mid-1990s.

The terms with which Garofoli defined the second phase of the process, occurring in the 1990s, are difficult to verify in the case study because they are expressed very generically, for example as “institutional interventions, laws and public standards”, which were held to be efficient in France (pôles de compétitivité) and in Spain (policies to promote industrial estates). Without entering into the epistemological weakness of the study by Trullen [27] regarding this efficiency in Spain, we believe that Garofoli does not incorporate policies for public facilities and infrastructure, which is the basis for proposition 2.1 of our second hypothesis. The function of these parameters as components of territorial capital is, however, considered by Dematteis and Governa [26]. In the 1960s, the theory of polarised spaces in urban centres and hierarchical axes was developed and applied to determine the optimum location of public facilities [28]. In the case study, this theory is applied on a regional scale, thus introducing a public job creation component associated with the position assigned in the urban system.

Certainly, the role of medium-sized cities in the relationship between innovation and territory was considered by Méndez [3], but little account has been taken of their situation as the targets of public policies related to the provision of services and the possible impact on employment. With regard to infrastructure, in the context of the European Union, the regional scale (equivalent to the NUTs 2 category) is the most relevant in this regard, and it is associated with employment in several dimensions. Assuming the objective of territorial cohesion, one of the parameters applied to identify territories in need of financial assistance (for example, from the European Regional Development Fund or the European Social Fund) is the presence of high unemployment. Chief among the instruments aimed at reducing unemployment is that of funding for transport infrastructure and for skills training programmes. However, most previous academic studies of these policies have focused on the regional scale [17], which corresponds to the parameters on which the policy application depends, and have overlooked the question of responses at the local scale. Nevertheless, both aspects should be addressed in a comprehensive analysis of employment policies.

However, the description of phase 3, from 2000 to 2020, leads us to the following reflection. If Garofoli does not present 2007 (when the housing bubble burst and economic trends reversed) as a watershed moment, it is because he believes the crucial factor is more the impact of globalisation and not so much the financial crisis. In this respect, we share his assessment of the “incapacity to reorganise national and territorial production systems in response to the challenges posed by globalisation, which led to significant deindustrialisation”, when the worldwide trade of products manufactured in the emerging countries became a major factor of deindustrialisation in the advanced economies [14] (p. 80).

The standpoint presented by Garofoli enables us to incorporate two factors related to the first phase of the cycle described. One is sectoral, namely, the emergence of the construction sector and its associated activities as a catalyst for public and private investment, together with the expansion of the tourism industry. The second is the complex readjustment of the labour market, during which the quality of industrial employment worsened as companies sought to remain competitive [29]. At the same time, the workforce was being greatly expanded by an influx of unregulated migrant workers, willing to accept the new, poorer working conditions. Garafoli expands the scope of research into the labour market in Europe in this period, in contrast to the widely held view that innovation mainly concerns industrial activities, a view that implicitly excludes sectors such as construction and tourism from case studies of this question.

Our study results show that, in the medium term:

• There has been a progressive distancing from the view that local development constitutes a means of reducing unemployment (for which purpose it arose spontaneously). Instead, it more closely resembles an instrument that is capable of generating high-quality employment in conjunction with innovation, institutional quality and business culture as co-factors strengthening the competitiveness of companies and hence that of the territories in which they are located.
• In parallel, the changes in working conditions and in the supply of labour (i.e., via increased immigration), as a consequence of globalisation, have provoked a dissociation between workers’ geographic origin, current residence and worksite, thus modifying the coherence of local employment policies and initiatives.
• The effectiveness of employment policies addressing the goals identified in paragraph 1, above, is subject to the response of social agents to external stimuli. However, these stimuli are less influenced by local policies than by factors such as the quality of employment, institutional capital and the presence of a development-oriented culture. Indeed, our study reveals the drag of inertia on the productive fabric in the study area, hindering innovation, as observed, too, by Arenas for the region of Andalusia. This inertia is reflected in the low presence of quality employment and in the entry of the immigrant workforce into unskilled activities.

2. Materials and Methods

To address the study goals, we used a well-established, although seldom-applied, type of case analysis in which the results of employment policies were observed via their effects on the variables impacting on the productive fabric. The following premises, sources and procedures were used.

2.1. Premises

The medium term as a chronological perspective. The 1975–2015 study period was chosen for various reasons. The first is the historical context, as 1975 marked the death of the dictator Francisco Franco and the onset of a new constitutional system. Moreover, focusing on this period enabled us to monitor employment policies and their effects during a complete economic cycle, beginning with the 1973 oil crisis, continuing with the bull phase from the early 1990s until 2007, when the housing market collapsed and the stock market crashed. Unfortunately, the censuses consulted (which, for the population, are published at 10-year intervals) do not fit neatly within this structure, since the 2001–2011 data also include the effects of the recession from 2008 to 2010, and therefore do not properly reflect the rising market phase. Furthermore, the medium-term perspective adopted required us to assume certain equivalences, both between the different classifications of economic activity between 1981 and 2011 and also between the different levels of aggregation presented by these sources. The study results are presented according to chronological criteria. During the overall study period (1975–2015), we distinguish four sub-periods, of which two coincide with the bibliographic review performed (which, in turn, focuses on three intervals of time). The first, lasting only five years from 1975 to 1980, spans the political transition that took place in Spain during a recessive phase of the economic cycle. The second and third coincide with those defined by Garofoli [14]. Thus, the second, from 1981 to 1991, includes the impact of the employment policy reforms enacted by the newly democratic governments and that of Spain’s entry into the European Union, in an economic context prior to globalisation. The third, extending Garafoli’s proposal [14] to 2007, features a disjunction between government-sponsored employment policies and the responses by the private sector during the expansive phase of the economy marked by the housing market bubble. Finally, the fourth period (2008–2015) covers the reaction of the productive fabric to the crash that signalled the onset of the recession.

The local scale. As commented above, this study consists of a case analysis focusing in the local level (municipality). This approach necessarily determines the type of statistical sources that can be consulted to observe the effects of the employment policies considered.

2.2. Sources and Analytical Procedures

Tables and Figures are inserted in the Section 3 following their order of appearance.

2.2.1. Analysis of Grey Literature Related to Public Policies

Planning documents referring to the public policies applied, at different scales (national, regional, local), were analysed using the epistemological framework of conventional instrumental rationality [30], by means of in-text citations. These documents are summarised in a table, where they are classified by scope of decision making, kind of planning and their (approximate) chronology.

2.2.2. The Statistical Sources and Data Analysis Methods

These are listed below, grouped by study area (see

Table 1. Areas addressed, parameters considered and sources consulted in the statistical data analysis.

Subject	Indexation Subject	Rate 1	Rate 2	Source 1	Source 2
1. Natural and spatial demographic dynamics		Birth rate		Annual Data for Births and Deaths	Population Census Data from 1900 to 2011; Register of Population, 2012 to 2015
		Death rate
		Migratory balance
2. Size of working population	2.1. Economically active workforce	Employment rate	Evolution index number 1980–2011. Table and line chart	Population censuses 1970 (total population); 1980, 1991, 2001, 2011; Málaga provincial council 1986	Active Population Survey 1976, Málaga,
	2.2. Unemployment	Unemployment rate	Line chart	Population censuses 1970 (total population); 1980, 1991, 2001, 2011; Málaga provincial council 1986	Registered Unemployed 1996–2011
	2.3. Labour Immigration	Contingency table: preferential relationship with the activity/newcomers 2001–2011	Inquiry on line: two-digit National Classification of Occupations (CNO) with the workers’ place of origin	Population census 2011
3. Relationship between residence and work place	3.1. Work place	% distribution		Population census 2011
	3.2. Relationship between work place and occupations	Contingency table		Population census 2011
4. The evolution of the productive fabric and the resulting characterisation	4.1. Evolution of working population classified by the employer’s area of activity, classified by one, two or three digits	% distribution of working population classified by one digit CNAE 1980, 1991, 2001, 2011	Evolution index number 1980–2011	Population censuses, 1980, 1991, 2001, 2011
		% distribution of working population (1991, 2001, 2011) in manufacturing industry classified by two-digit CNAE
		% distribution of working population (1991, 2001, 2011) in services subsector classified by two-digit CNAE
	4.2. Evolution of business activity.	Evolution in index number Line chart. One per complex: (a) agriculture–food complex; (b) construction complex; (c) the complexes related to services activities are combined in a single figure.		Directory of Business Establish-ments. One digit CNAE. 1998–2011.	Statistical Yearbook on Commercial Companies in Andalusia. Branch CNAE. 2003–2011.
	4.3. Characterisation of productive fabric.	Contingency tables crossing two variables: the employer’s business activity sector (two-digit CNAE classification) and the CNO distribution by professions (one-digit classification). One per complex: (a) agriculture–food complex; (b) construction complex; (c) the complexes related to services activities are combined in a single figure.	Table: comparison of % distribution of population working in “Advanced services related to culture” and “Advanced services for business” in Antequera, Málaga and Andalusia	Population census 2011
5. Other specific subjects	5.1. Impact of Agrarian Reform on employment	Evolution of number and surface area of farmlands per size category.	Evolution of AWU/ha cultivated	Agrarian censuses 1962–2009	Population census 1991, 2011
			Evolution of AWU/agrarian worker
			Evolution of AWU/agrarian active population
	5.2. Characterisation of tourism-related variables	Evolution of hotels and restaurants. Bar chart		Statistics on hotel and catering establishments. Regional Ministry of Tourism, Commerce and Sports

). When the scale does not correspond to the municipality of Antequera, it is stated.

Natural and Spatial Demographic Dynamics

Our bibliographic review of this area included regional-scale research [6,10] examining the relationship between the demographic transition and the insufficient diversification of the Andalusian productive fabric as a key factor in matching natural and spatial dynamics. The population data consulted were the inhabitants of the municipality between 1975 and 2015 [31]. The natural and spatial components of these population trends were established for 5- and 10-year intervals between 1975 and 2010 to determine whether there was any association between the dynamisation of the productive fabric and the spatial component of real growth. These components were obtained by calculating the migratory balance, as the difference between vegetative and real population growth. The SIMA annual data for births and deaths [32] were used to calculate vegetative growth.

Economically Active Workforce and Unemployment

Any evaluation of employment policies must take into account that changes in the size of the working population in the study area also depend on other factors, for example the incorporation or otherwise of women into economic activity, and the effects of the natural and spatial movements discussed above. Moreover, some of the employed persons resident in the municipality may conduct their activity elsewhere. The following sources were consulted, and data obtained, to resolve these questions.

Population Censuses

• Rates of employment and unemployment

For the period considered, any analysis of employment rates is subject to certain limitations. Firstly, in the 1970 Census [33], the only information published on questions related to this study is under the heading “Municipalities with 10,000 to 50,000 inhabitants”. In this section, the economically active population is defined as the sum of the persons working and those available to work, not differentiated by gender. Therefore, this source does not provide unemployment rates, nor does it reflect the incorporation of women into the labour market. As the only alternative source of data in this respect, we consulted the Active Population Survey [34], although this information refers to the province, not the municipality, and is only available from 1976. Moreover, as explained in the section “Agriculture-food”, the unemployment rate is not broken down by activity sector except for the agricultural sector. The data for 1981 [35], 1991 [36], 2001 [37] and 2011 [38] are those published in the population censuses of the National Institute of Statistics (INE). However, the continuity of this information was interrupted by the fact that the 2011 Population Census [38] was carried out by sampling and did not cover the entire universe of the Spanish population. This factor, which in itself may impact on the reliability of the data, is accentuated by the application of a confidentiality clause that prevents access to the data when the figures are small. The data considered for 1986 are those published in the 1986 Population Register by the Málaga Provincial Council [39].

b.

The repercussions of immigration

Immigration only produced a significant impact on the study variables after 2001, and so our study information in this respect was obtained from the 2011 Census [38], which described the levels of labour immigration that had taken place during the preceding decade through the variables “Year of arrival in the municipality”, “Economically active population”, “Working population” and “Place of origin” of the latter.

c.

Relationship between residence and worksite

With respect to 2011 [38], we determined the proportion of the employed population resident in Antequera but working elsewhere (variable “Worksite”), and the relationship between the latter parameter and the level of professional skill (variable “Employed population by profession” (CNO classification, to one digit), in order to represent the capacity of the local productive fabric to retain skilled human capital following the 2007 crisis.

Both of these questions are relevant to proposition 2.2 of our second hypothesis on the relationship between the quality of employment, the productive fabric and patterns of immigration.

Public Sector Employment Services. Registered Unemployment

Finally, as an alternative source of statistical information, both to confirm the validity of the Census data and to supplement its wide-ranging periodicity, we consulted the 1997–2003 unemployment data published by INEM, the Spanish employment service, and the 2004–2011 data published by the Andalusian Regional Ministry of Employment. Both sources are accessible at SIMA [40].

The Evolution of the Productive Fabric and the Resulting Characterisation

The first study hypothesis was formulated in the understanding that changes in the composition of the locally resident employed population, by activity sector, and in that of the companies located in the municipality during the study period are a significant reflection of the local response to employment-related public policies and to changes in the economic cycle. These questions are addressed via two interrelated procedures, the variations in the relevant parameters during the study period and the values recorded in 2011 (the last date for which the Census data are available) and 2015 for supplementary sources. The following data sources, ordered from general to specific and specifying any treatment applied and their relationship with the study hypotheses, were consulted.

The Distribution of Economic Activity, by Subsectors

• A methodological observation: the evolution of the Spanish Classification of Economic Activities (CNAE)

In this regard, there are several preliminary questions to consider. Self-evidently, the selection of study variables is subject to data availability. In this respect, the only statistical information available at the municipal level concerns the employed population (1986–2011) and the level of business activity, as measured by the study variables “Number of business premises (1991–2011)” [41] and “Mercantile companies created (2003–2011)” [42]. In our analysis, the latter two variables are interpreted in a complementary fashion. The data on establishments indicate the level of business activity within the study area, while the statistics on the working population reflect the level of professional activity performed by the local population, wherever this activity takes place. Variations in the number of mercantile companies in the municipality are interpreted as an approximate indication of business culture, especially as concerns the response to economic cycles. The main drawback of these data sources is the discontinuous nature of the classifications of economic activities due to the modifications applied and because the three sources each present different levels of aggregation.

The first source that includes this information at the municipal level is the synthesis of the 1986 Population Register [39], performed in accordance with the 1974 CNAE (applied to the 1981 census). However, this source was not included in the present study for two reasons. Firstly, its content has been analysed in previous studies [8,9]. Furthermore, the 1974 CNAE, as reflected in the 1991 Population Census [43], was subjected to major revision, and so its inclusion would introduce considerable complexity into our analysis whilst not providing any greater precision in the results obtained. Therefore, our analysis combines the bibliographic results (1986–1991) with those obtained by direct quantification from statistical sources (1991 onwards). The following modification was that of CNAE 93, which in turn was succeeded by CNAE 09. This chain of modifications obliged us to adopt a series of equivalence criteria in order to match the study goals to the very different levels of detail present in the three data sources used. The outcome of this process is shown in Table S1 (Supplementary Materials).

b.

The most detailed information used corresponds to the working population classified by the employer’s area of activity, which is stipulated to a level of one, two or three digits. However, in these cases, too, the data availability is variable. Thus, the 1991 Census [36] only classifies to one digit (numerical), lacking the taxonomy (the three-digit branch code) provided in the 2001 and 2011 censuses. Moreover, due to the confidentiality provisions applied and the sampling procedure employed, a two-digit classification could not be systematically derived, since in the 2011 Census [38] when there are less than five sampling units the numbers are replaced by asterisks. Accordingly, the taxonomy of this source (the population censuses) was used as the basis for establishing equivalences to be applied to other sources. The systematisation criteria applied for the continuity of these classifications are presented as Supplementary Materials Variables, sources and procedures.

• Working population classified by the employer’s area of activity, classified by one, two or three digits (Population censuses)

To systematise the evolution of the employed population by CNAE subsectors between 1991 and 2011, two tables were constructed, one for manufacturing industry and the other for services. The level of aggregation of these classifications was constructed in a non-systematic way, for the following reasons. Firstly, although a single-letter classification for the services subsectors is a sufficient level of detail for our purposes, with such a classification for the secondary sector, all manufacturing industries would be grouped under a single heading. The second reason is that for the 1991–2001 phase, the breakdown of manufacturing industry activities is the most significant aspect, but for the next phase (2001–11), the breakdown of service activities is more meaningful.

• ii.

  Business activity

The statistical information available for the evolution and distribution by economic activities of the companies located in the study area is less detailed, since it is only indexed by the CNAE letter classification. The main drawback of this is the low level of detail within Letter D (CNAE 09), corresponding to “Manufacturing Industry”, which makes it impossible to determine the performance of the individual activities in this area. For the period 1981–1991, we have the INE Census of Business Premises, also used in previous research [8]. For 1999 and successive years, our analysis draws on the data published in the Directory of Business Establishments [41] operating in Andalusia. This source, too, was affected by the changes made to the CNAE; thus, the CNAE 93 classification was applied for the period 1998–2008 and CNAE 09 for 2009 to 2011. Additional information was provided by the Statistical Yearbook on Commercial Companies in Andalusia [42]. However, in the latter case, the level of indexing is even lower than that of the Directory of Business Premises, since it only discriminates at a broad level, as “Agriculture”, “Industry & Energy”, “Construction” and “Services”. For this reason, our analysis only includes this source in two of the complexes of recognised activities (those of agriculture–food and construction, since the merging of all the service subsectors into a single category would reduce its usefulness for our study aims. These two data sources were only used to characterise the above-mentioned areas of business activity.

Characterisation of the productive fabric by reference to complexes of economic activities.

Taking into account the above-described modifications and following the previous research in this area [8,9], we consider various sets of economic activities, grouped by qualitative methods. Intentionally, we use the term complex, rather than cluster, to designate these groups, since the procedure applied is not based on measuring the relationships between them but on obtaining an analytical evaluation. The activities were not selected according to previously determined methodological criteria but arose from our analysis of the evolution of business activity in relation to the employment policies applied. Therefore, in this Materials and Methods section, we only describe the relationship between the activities considered and the data sources consulted. As explained above, the use of sources was not systematic, since the data on companies in general and on mercantile companies in particular are presented at different levels of disaggregation. Moreover, information for the complex as a whole is obtained from specific sources. In the following, we define each of these complexes.

The agriculture–food complex includes agricultural holdings, persons employed in agricultural activities, livestock rearing, hunting, related services, veterinary activities and the food industry. This complex was distinguished in our analysis for two reasons: firstly, for its close link with one of the first employment policies applied during the study period, the Agrarian Reform of 1981, and secondly, for its particularly close relationship with territorial capital, meaning that fluctuations in its situation faithfully reflect the response of local agents to supramunicipal changes. In interpreting the evolution of the index numbers for business variables related to the agriculture–food sector in Antequera, the following clarification should be noted. As indicated above, the statistics corresponding to business premises and mercantile companies are indexed by letter and by branch of activity, respectively. The information corresponding to Manufacturing firms and Industrial and energy-related mercantile companies cannot be disaggregated (as explained before) (b). As shown in Section 3.3, in 2011, the agriculture–food subsector employed more workers than any other area of manufacturing activities. For this reason, the variations in the above variables are included in our analysis of this complex.

The construction complex. In selecting this complex, the following factors were taken into account: on the one hand, the impact of government policies affecting transport infrastructure and the rehabilitation of architectural heritage; on the other, the impact of the property market bubble on the productive fabric between 2001 and 2011. In this context, our analysis was subject to various limitations arising from the statistical sources consulted. Due to the low number of people employed in extractive activities and in manufacturing industries within this complex [9], it was not possible to establish the distribution of this population by profession. This low level of statistical significance led us to dispense with Section D: “Industry and Energy” of the establishments created, although we did include those classified among Section B: “Mining and Quarrying”. Moreover, as we said before, CNAE 93 included services to companies together with real estate activities; these data were excluded from the figure because from 2009, the three-digit breakdown (L, M and N) of heading K (as detailed above) revealed the limited number of companies involved and hence their low significance for this complex. Therefore, the most significant information available is that provided by the 2011 population census [38]. Our analysis includes activities related to both public and private works (general and/or specialised construction, civil engineering, etc.) and their sale (real estate activities) and maintenance (buildings services and gardening-related activities).

Public and private services arising from the town’s central location and status as district capital. Advancing from the 2007 analysis [9], retail trade and basic public services (education and health) are the main subsectors associated with the town’s status as district or supramunicipal capital. This identification is relevant to our monitoring of the effects of public policies aimed at strengthening public services, following the pattern corresponding to the respective levels of the urban system.

Tourism-related activities. Between 2001 and 2011, the fastest-growing sector of economic activity in the study area was tourism, attracted by the town’s rich artistic and historical heritage. This growth can be measured according to the private assets deployed and the expansion of the working population. This category includes not only the persons directly engaged in tourism but also those in complementary activities, such as travel and recreational agencies. The increase in the employed population during this period was accompanied by a parallel rise in labour immigration. To determine whether these variables were related, we consulted the 2011 Population Census [38], which combines the two-digit National Classification of Occupations (CNO) with the workers’ place of origin.

Services provided by skilled labour. This occupational group was selected for analysis in line with employment theory according to which skilled workers are major protagonists in the services-led evolution of advanced societies [15,16]. The provision of services to companies is of strategic importance in fostering innovation, productivity and competitiveness, both in individual companies and in the territories where they are located. As mentioned above, sections K and O of CNAE 93, into which these services had been classified, were profoundly modified in CNAE 09. Although the two-digit subsectors in the new presentation provide more detailed information, the reform precludes continuity and complicates the analysis of changes between the 2001 and 2011 censuses. However, given the absence of complementary statistical information with which to refine the analysis, we chose to compare the structures of the corresponding two-digit sections between the region (Andalusia), the province (Málaga) and the municipality (Antequera) in order to determine, at least in relative terms, the impact of these cutting-edge activities in the study area. Following the approach adopted for the other complexes, these activities were structured into two groups: “Advanced services related to culture” and “Advanced services for business”. For the first of these complexes, given that the town’s historical heritage is the primary driver of its tourism activities, we attempted to determine whether this fact was significantly present in the related services, identified as the subsectors included in Letters J (related to information) and R (related to cultural activities). Regarding the second complex, services to companies, we have included the services of Letter M “Professional, scientific and technical activities”, which reflect the degree to which companies use advanced services, in contrast to their presence in Letter N “Administrative activities and auxiliary services”, a category that is more indicative of basic services.

For each complex, the results are presented in two complementary ways:

1. Graphic format, using index numbers to facilitate comparison of the trends presented by all the firms and mercantile companies, on the one hand, with those for the activities specific to each complex, on the other. Due to the above-stated characteristics of the sources consulted, these graphs could only be obtained for the agriculture–food and construction complexes. For tertiary activities, the figure shows the evolution (by index numbers) of the firms included in each of the CNAE 09 categories, according to the letter assigned to each area of economic activity. For the tourism complex, a figure shows the evolution of hospitality and catering establishments.

2. Contingency tables that reflect the situation in 2011, based on the 2011 Census data for the employed population and on crossing two variables: the employer’s business activity sector (two-digit classification) and the CNO distribution by professions (one-digit classification). The selection criterion employed for this variable was to interpret workers’ level of professional skills in terms of the profession exercised and to observe whether this professional category varied between one activity and another. This identification of skill with profession was considered to be more significant than the educational qualifications possessed, in the view that the productive fabric reflects the need for these skills, giving rise to the greater or lesser presence of specialised professions. This interpretation allows us to test proposition 2.2 of our second hypothesis with respect to assessing employment quality as an indicator of innovation processes. Again, it should be noted that the sampling procedure applied in the 2011 Census and the application of the confidentiality clause introduce an element of distortion in the results provided. This limitation is reflected in the results presented by including the size of the working population in each business activity sector (using the two-digit CNAE classification of the 2011 Population Census). This approach reveals the statistical significance of the employed population for whom cross-information is available on occupation and business activity sector of the establishment.

Finally, to complete the analysis of these complexes of activities, the following statistics and specific procedures are incorporated for certain activities.

(a)

The Agrarian Census, which has sufficient periodicity and spatial scale to provide the municipal data needed for the period 1962 to 2009 [44,45,46,47,48,49]. From this source, the following variables and ratios were obtained: the evolution of farm structures by size and the relationship between labour supply and demand (Annual Working Units (AWUs), Agrarian Censuses), as expressed by the number of persons available for employment and actually employed in the agricultural sector during the years for which data are available [38,39], otherwise, only those actually employed. Both values reflect the effects of agrarian reform.

(b)

Characterisation of tourism-related variables. For this purpose, we had access to detailed information at the municipal level, namely, the statistics on hotel and catering establishments published by the Regional Ministry of Tourism, Commerce and Sports [50].

2.2.3. The Press

Given the lack of bibliographic and statistical sources for the period 1975–1980, the archives of the local press (El Sol de Antequera) were consulted for articles and information referring to socioeconomic issues [51]. This period marked Spain’s transition from the former dictatorship to a democratic system, and also featured a dilution of regional-scale economic policies, except those applied by SODIAN (Society for the Industrial Development of Andalusia). These records were consulted in the Municipal Archive of Antequera (AMA) and gave a complementary perspective that proved especially suitable for our study, providing information not only on the questions of direct interest but also on related private and public initiatives. This contribution, moreover, highlights the importance of the local press as an active agent in the demand for a new economic model, which took shape during the next 15 years. In the records consulted, Juan Alcaide (acting Editor) and Ángel Guerrero (copywriter) provided continuity in their coverage of the transformations effected in the local economy. These accounts, together with the frequent publication of news related to unemployment, are vividly illustrative of the contemporary socioeconomic fabric and of the model pursued by the political and business communities of Antequera during the transition.

The information thus compiled was classified as follows: global economic issues (economy and unemployment); local issues (district and regional capital status); agricultural sector (agricultural activities, water and irrigation, olive cultivation and processing); manufacturing sector (industry, crafts, industrial real estate, SODIAN); services, heritage and tourism. This classification was tabulated. The relative importance granted to each of these areas and their evolution during the five years consulted are reflected in the graphic format.

3. Results

The results are structured within four chronological periods, as titled in the corresponding sections. First, however, we provide a brief introduction to the study area.

3.1. A Mediterranean Agro-Town

Antequera (with 41,318 inhabitants [2] and a surface area of 749 km²) corresponds to the Mediterranean “agro-town” [52] model, and the town’s long history has strongly shaped its social, cognitive and territorial capital [26]. The location and evolution of Antequera provide a representative model of the organic economy in the Mediterranean region, where the town has benefited from the natural potential offered, especially its excellent location, at the intersection of major routes of communication (Figure 1). The concentration of artisanal activities and basic services linked to this structure in Antequera was followed by a proto-industrial phase [53]. However, the impact of Desarrollismo (industrial development in Spain in the 1960s), which led to decreased entrepreneurial initiatives and a rural exodus, weakened these functions, although the town’s economic and social potential remained intact.

3.2. Background 1975–1980: The Democratic Transition—Welcome Mr. Marshall (Welcome Mr. Marshall (Original Title: Bienvenido, Mister Marshall) Was Directed by Luis García Berlanga in 1953 and Is Considered One of the Masterpieces of Spanish Cinema. It Satirised a Recurrent Problem in Spain: The Investment Passivity Frequently Displayed, as Small Local Communities Hope for Windfalls from External Sources, an Expectation That Is Often Disappointed)

Between 1970 and 1986, the population of Antequera was subject to major fluctuations (see Figure 2), reflecting uncertainty following the downturn in traditional economic activities in the 1960s. In Antequera, as in many other rural areas of inland Andalusia, migrant numbers rose sharply [6] until the destinations of this emigration were themselves hit by the world oil crisis of 1973 and the subsequent recession.

As observed in the bibliographic review, the concept of local development in Western Europe gained traction in the prevailing context of business uncertainty and rising unemployment during this period, and reports [51] in El Sol de Antequera express the local reaction to these circumstances.

Between 1975 and 1980, the rate of local emigration was double that of natural population growth, and was equivalent to 17% of the total average population during this period (see

Table 2. Components of population growth. Antequera, 1975–2010.

Years	Births	Deaths	Natural Balance	Balance	Migratory Balance	Birth Rate	Death Rate
1975–1980	3989	1909	2080	−4446	−6526	17.50	8.38
1981–1990	5576	3176	2400	3000	600	14.96	14.20
1991–2000	4797	3284	1513	1524	11	12.14	13.85
2001–2009	4590	2979	1611	4879	3268	11.94	11.62

Sources [31,32].

).

Despite this debilitating loss of human resources, unemployment continued to be rife in the municipality.

Table 3. Evolution of economically active workforce in Antequera, 1971–2011.

	1970		1980		1986		1991		2001		2011
Population over Age 16	Total	Rate	Total	Rate	Total	Rate	Total	Rate	Total	Rate	Total	Rate
Men	11,346		12,272		15,152		14,572		13,268		14,015
Women	11,938		12,715		15,881		15,511		13,339		13,570
Total	23,284		24,987		31,033		30,083		26,607		27,585
Economically Active
Men			8891	72.4	10,443	68.9	9892	67.9	10.788	79.09	11.890	84.8
Women			2312	18.2	3680	23.1	4477	28.9	6.488	48.64	9.955	73.4
Total	12,035	51.69	11,203	44.8	14,123	45.5	14,369	47.8	17.276	64.93	21.845	79.2
Total Inhabitants	41,276		35,765		40,625		38,765		40,289		41,741

Sources: [33,35,36,37,38].

and

Table 4. Total and sectoral unemployment in the province of Málaga, 1976.

	Active	Workers	Unemployed	Rate
Agriculture	58,400	54,200	4200	7.19
Industry	47,750	44,800	2950	6.18
Construction	44,900	30,650	14,250	31.74
Services	148,650	140,600	8050	5.42
Unemployed persons seeking first job	8750			2.84
Total	308,450	270250	38,200	12.38

Source [34].

show that the employment rate in 1970 was very low, at 51% of the working age population. One reason for this is that women were still greatly underrepresented in the work force. In Antequera, the total employment actually fell by almost a thousand between 1970 and 1980, which is in line with the negative migratory balance indicated. Unfortunately, analysis of local unemployment is hampered by a lack of statistical detail. For the province as a whole, employment data classified by occupational sectors are available, but this is not the case for the municipality of Antequera. In the province, unemployment in the construction sector rose to 31%, but was reported to be only 7% in agricultural activities. In our opinion, however, this disparity arose from the fact that agricultural labourers were subject to different administrative regulations from those applicable to other activity sectors, and the real magnitude of unemployment in this area was certainly much greater.

In other words, the temporary/casual nature of rural labour concealed a level of unemployment that the local press highlighted as the main problem currently affecting the municipality. This information is classified by subject matter in

Table 5. Classification of articles related to Antequera productive fabric published in El Sol de Antequera [51], 1975–1980.

SUBJECTS	Articles (n)	% Subject	% Total Articles
Economy	21	37
Unemployment	36	63
Global economic issues	57	100	24
Agricultural activities	24	65
Water and irrigation	5	14
Olive cultivation and processing	8	22
Total agricultural sector	37	100	15
Industry	33	55
Craftwork	5	8
Industrial real estate	19	32
SODIAN	3	5
Total manufacturing sector	60	100	25
Services	14	16
District capital status	5	6
Regional capital status	34	40
Heritage	18	21
Tourism	15	17
Total services subsectors	86	100	36
Infrastructure	1	100	0.41
Total articles	241		100

, and the year-on-year distribution is shown in Figure 3. Unemployment is a constant concern in this area, in contrast to the sporadic importance of other issues such as the town’s capital status or the situation of the olive oil industry, which we discuss below. As concerns unemployment, more than the press coverage received, which would be the object of a different study, we wish to determine its relationship with the solutions demanded, and this question is clearly linked to that of the employment policies proposed and applied. The problems encountered in this respect are illustrated by the exasperating slowness in generating activity in the industrial estate (which was the first of many to be located in the area, to the SE of the town centre, near the sugar beet factory constructed in 1890).

Other proposals aimed at boosting job creation included a stronger commitment to the transformation of agricultural produce, the consolidation and increased quality of non-industrial goods (in particular, pastries and tarts) and the better marketing of horticultural products. Although fewer press reports in this respect have been published, Antequera and its surroundings are also of considerable tourist interest, with an impressive artistic, cultural and historical heritage, together with natural phenomena such as the spectacular karst landscape of El Torcal. These features differentiate the district from the ‘sun and beach’ appeal of the Costa del Sol and led to the municipality being awarded a special distinction by the newspaper Sol de España in 1980. Antequera also provides supra-municipal services, such as the Hospital de San Juan de Dios, technical schools and professional training facilities. As discussed below, it is these elements, which clearly correspond to an endogenous model of development, that catalysed the profound changes undergone in the municipality between 1980 and 1991.

What agents were involved in job creation proposals, implicitly or explicitly, according to the reports published in El Sol de Antequera? Most evidently, the institutions and their officials, namely (in decreasing order of impact produced) the mayors, the president of Málaga Provincial Council and, sporadically, the relevant government ministers, especially those with responsibilities for labour relations or tourism. A series of interviews with Joaquín Jiménez Hidalgo, mayor of Antequera and subsequently president of the Provincial Council, corroborated the paralysis of the Antequera Industrial Estate throughout these five years. The involvement of regional and national ministers is indicative of the supralocal dimension of unemployment in Andalusia. The local press reports, together with other sources, show that, in most cases, the authorities preferred to grant occasional subsidies to unemployeds, rather than promote investment in productive sectors. On many occasions, the arrival, distribution and application of these funds (in Antequera itself or further afield) was subject to considerable delay, which was widely but ineffectively protested. A significant aspect of the newspaper reports in this regard is the importance assigned to the public sector as a reactivator of the economic model, in contrast to the scant attention paid to the question of deficient local infrastructure and the need for its improvement.

However, from the data sources consulted, it is difficult to distinguish and identify the corresponding agents of cognitive and social capital (In this, we refer to the concepts defined by Dematteis & Governa [26]) as possible drivers of industrial development. Curiously, references are made to artisans (lamenting their disappearance), pastry makers (denouncing their passivity and inability to expand the market despite burgeoning demand for the product (the pastry maker La Antequerana published an advertisement in November 1977 suggesting that customers place their orders in advance) and table-olive producers (highlighting the lack of workshop facilities to manage the product). Many news stories about the agricultural sector consisted of complaints about the low prices received for horticultural products, the impact of bad weather (particularly, that of droughts) and, in 1977, the profound crisis hitting the olive growing and oil producing sector. Periodic accounts were also given of the activities of the experimental farm “La Capuchina”. However, no criticism is made of the landowners, whose holdings provided them with ample capacity for investment [54].

On the contrary, the possible arrival of external concerns, from near and far (Catalonia and Germany, for example), engaged in diverse business activities (in one case, for example, the transformation of rhyolite; in another, animal slaughter) was always reported. However, the initial optimism was always followed by expressions of helplessness when the rumours turned out to be groundless.

From these press cuttings, we deduce that the local press did not call for major landowners, i.e., the private agents who at that time dominated the local economy, to take committed action to transform and diversify the socioeconomic model. We suggest that the delay in installing water and electricity supplies in the industrial estate (which long prevented its entry into operation) could have been avoided if these economic actors had exerted greater pressure instead of leaving all responsibility to the public sector.

Although the data from the 1972 Agrarian Census [45], too, are insufficient to determine the relationship between agricultural holdings, unemployment and investment capacity, in combination with those for 1962 [44] and, above all, those of 1982 [46] and 1992 [47], they do allow us to approximate the significance of agricultural holdings in Antequera’s 1975–1980 economic model (

Table 6. Evolution of number of farmlands by size (Total Area and Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA) in hectares. Antequera, 1962–2009. Index numbers (year indicated = 100).

Kind of Land Use	Year	Number of Farmlands per Size (Hectares)						Total Farmlands
		0.1 to <1	>=0.1 to <5	5 to <10	10 to <20	>=20 to <50	>=50
Total area	1962			394	270	217	212	1093
Total area	1972		270	233	210	196	225	1134
UAA	1982		352	205	203	179	219	1158
UAA	1992		807	405	266	222	264	1967
UAA	1999		1040	381	311	268	279	2279
UAA	2009	8	847	372	271	234	238	1970
		Area (Hectares)						Total Area (ha)
Total area	1962		1801	2753	3797	6624	59,657	74,652
UAA	2009	7.59	2269.02	2702.37	4024.88	7794.53	42,927.6	5,9725.97
Kind of Land Use	Years	Number of Farmlands per Size (Hectares)						Total Farmlands
		0.1 to <1	>=0.1 to <5	5 to <10	10 to <20	>=20 to <50	>=50
Total area	1962			100	100	100	100	100
Total area	1972		100	59	78	90	106	104
UAA	1982		130	52	75	82	97	106
UAA	1992		299	103	99	102	121	180
UAA	1999		385	97	115	124	106	209
UAA	2009		314	94	100	108	85	180

Sources [44,45,46,47,48,49].

). The 1962 statistics for distribution by farm size reveal an evident concentration of holdings, which, in view of the stable number of farms through 1972 and 1982, leads us to conclude that the Annual Work Unit (AWU) and Livestock Unit values for the latter year (

Table 7. Evolution of intensification of cultivated lands by means of Annual Working Unit (AWU)/Agrarian active population;/AWU/Agrarian workers; AWU/cultivated land (ha) and Livestock Units (LU). Antequera, 1982–2009.

Years		Cultivated Land (ha)	LU	AWU	Agrarian Active Population (1)	Agrarian Workers (2)	AWU/ha Cultivated	AWU/Agrarian Worker	AWU/ Agrarian Active Population
1962	1093
1972	1134	45,878
1982	1158	39,761	5966	1781		2001	0.045	0.890
1992	1967	45,348	10,267	2459	3846	1963	0.054	1.253	0.639
1999	2279	50,265	13,020	2457		1555	0.049	1.580
2009	1970	43,442	12,135	2159	2285	815	0.050	2.649	0.945

Sources [44,45,46,47,48,49]; agrarian active population (1) [39], (2) [38].

) significantly mirror the whole period from 1962 to 1982. The limited exploitation of most of the non-irrigated land in the area can be inferred from the fact that by 1992 the AWUs had increased by nearly 50% and Livestock Unit values had almost doubled. In view of these data, the intensification of agricultural exploitation could have been postulated as a means of reducing unemployment.

Just as the responsibility for bringing about change in the socioeconomic model seems to have been delegated to the public sector or to external agents, we interpret the protagonism assigned to Antequera’s aspirations to become the regional capital in the same sense [51]. The intensity of support for this proposal from public and private figures was matched by that of the disappointment suffered when, ultimately, Seville was awarded the title in 1980. This commitment to obtaining regional capital status contrasts with the infrequent references in the press to the district’s strategic location in the northern part of Málaga province, despite the fact that major hospitals, technical schools and vehicle technical inspection centres are located here. Indeed, journalists have observed that the northern part of the province seems to be largely ignored and sidelined, while provincial authorities seek economic growth based on tourism.

Due to their considerable impact on the town’s fortunes during the period from 1980 to 2001, special attention should be paid to heritage issues. In most cases, the situation is a negative one, with press reports of the neglect and even collapse of outstanding elements, as occurred to the towers of the Marqués de Mollina palace. In 1980, the paper inaugurated a new opinion section, “La Plazuela” (The Town Square), penned by Antonio Parejo and Jesús Romero [51]. This column presaged the importance granted over the next 10 years to maintaining and restoring the town’s heritage. The writers’ in-depth analysis, not only of the elements of architectural value but also of their role in the town’s evolution, should be considered an important step in forging ties between local cognitive capital and historical heritage capital as components of local development.

3.3. 1980–1991: Weaknesses and Strengths of Public Policies, Weighing Competitiveness against Social Policies

In the 1980s, a complex network of public policies and private initiatives related to economic and political change at multiple levels combined to produce far-reaching effects on the socioeconomic model applied in Antequera and its surrounds, reaffirming some factors and radically adjusting others. Around the middle of the decade, the global economy finally began to emerge from the deep recession into which it had sunk in 1973. At the national and regional levels, major political change took place with the approval in 1981 of the Statute of Autonomy for Andalusia, as part of the country’s democratic transition. At the intersection of these three scales was Spain’s entry into the European Union in 1986. Under the agreement reached, Andalusia obtained a very advantageous position in terms of access to the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), although the EU status acquired was incompatible with some aspects of the agrarian reform policies that the regional government had introduced. Finally, significant changes took place with the formalisation of local government as a powerful instrument of economic planning, materialising what until then had been merely tacit practices (at least according to the press) during the difficult years from 1975 to 1979.

These extensive changes in the political and economic landscape were accompanied by a convergence of development models, reproducing that observed among economic policies in response to rapidly-evolving political and social processes, at home and abroad (see

Table 8. Characteristics of public policies carried out in Antequera, 1981–1992.

Title	Scope of Decision Making	Kind of Planning	Date	Impact
Major Areas of Industrial Expansion in Andalusia (GAEIA)	Andalusia	Identification of the industrial sector as a driver of development.	1981 (Decree)	Transfer of local industries to the industrial estate.
Agrarian Reform Act	Regional administration of Andalusia	Agrarian reform is viewed as an instrument to correct social inequalities. The measures adopted are aligned with the concept of integrated rural development.	1984 (Antequera declared a target region for Agrarian Reform)	Short term: strengthening of the agriculture–food industry (canning and olive oil production). Medium term: moderate deconcentration of agricultural holdings.
Andalusian City System	Regional administration of Andalusia	Urban hierarchisation as an instrument for locating public services in the context of the welfare state	1986 (publication)	Identification of Antequera as an intermediate-level town: supra-municipal siting of public facilities, e.g., the district hospital.
General Plan for Highways in Andalusia	Regional administration of Andalusia/EU (ERDF funding)	As above.	1987 (publication) 1992 (inauguration)	Enhanced road accessibility of Antequera on the East–West communication axis, via the A92 highway.
Conversion of the Antequera-Málaga section of the N331 conventional road into a highway	Spanish Central Administration/EU (ERDF funding)	Centralised model of communications, radiating from the national capital.	1992 inauguration	Enhanced road accessibility of Antequera regarding the North–South communication axis, Córdoba-Málaga (via the N-IV Mediterranean highway).
Basic Elements for Territorial Planning in Andalusia	Regional administration of Andalusia	Endogenous (local) development.	1990	No investment.
Local Autonomous Organisation for the Promotion and Development of Antequera (OAL)	Municipality of Antequera	Endogenous (local) development.	1985?	Guidelines and procedures for business assistance: self-employment, SMEs.
Handbook of investment in Antequera	Municipality of Antequera	Foster new commercial activity.	1985?	Establishment in the municipality of companies investing non-local capital.

). Taking a chronological approach in our analysis of these policies, let us first note the evident relation between the problems described in the previous section and the application of two important policy instruments: agrarian reform and the programme entitled “Major Areas of Industrial Expansion in Andalusia” (GAEIA, Spanish initials).

Antequera played an outstanding role in the region’s agrarian reform (Act 8/1984, of 3 July, on Agrarian Reform, Junta de Andalucía) and was the first area in Andalusia to be addressed in this regard, in 1984, due in part to the considerable social tension in and around the town since the late 1970s, as reported in El Sol de Antequera [51]. The choice of Antequera as the first target of agrarian reform also reflected the priorities of the regional economic policies arising from the Transition. Thus, the first devolved government of Andalusia considered the problems of the rural environment to be among the “great historical questions” responsible for the backwardness of Andalusian society. In the present study, this evolution is considered solely as concerns its impact on employment, since one of the objectives of this legislation was to increase agricultural production and thus create more rural jobs in an area where unemployment was the main problem facing society. Table 7 shows that between 1982 and 1992, AWUs/hectare rose only slightly, despite the strong expansion of livestock farming. We believe the reason for the scant impact of the 1984 Law of Agrarian Reform is that the judicial actions adopted by landowners who rejected the proposed changes were later reinforced by the priorities then established in the European Community’s common agricultural policy, which indirectly favoured less labour-intensive crops, such as sunflowers.

The socioeconomic planning model we describe, based on a single sector and seeking to foster the economic reactivation of the region, converges with another model that played a major role in the mid-1980s. This model had two features, which we have already mentioned: the Antequera industrial estate and SODIAN (Society for the Industrial Development of Andalusia, created in 1977 and since incorporated into the GAEIA). The factor common to both activities is that of industrial activity.

Among the many possible sources of investment, aspired to but often frustrated (see Table 5 and Figure 3), SODIAN entered Antequera in 1977. However, the turning point in its operations occurred in 1981, prompted by another resource, with comparable objectives, namely the GAEIA (Major Areas of Industrial Expansion in Andalusia), a regional policy instrument that was applied during the Transition years. GAEIA was a decree, issued by the regional government, that “assigned preference to 67 municipalities in the region” [55] and marked the first time that Antequera was associated with a specific instrument of regional policy. Assessing Antequera’s participation in this process will inevitably be a complex task, but it is of fundamental importance in identifying the advantages and disadvantages of policies aimed at promoting employment.

The contributions made by the GAEIA and the industrial estate to achieving this goal should be viewed against the economic context of the time, namely the evolution from “Phase B”, i.e., the 1973 oil crisis and the subsequent recession, to “Phase A”, a period of economic expansion that lasted until the real estate bubble burst in 2007. GAEIA financial aid, which was limited and bureaucratically complex, was nevertheless well suited to two local factors of production: an artisan-scale agriculture–food sector (as reflected in the reports in El Sol de Antequera [51]) and an abundance of inexpensive manpower. The relocation of these activities to the industrial estate and its effective business organisation [56] resulted in very positive outcomes, as concerns the evolution of business structures and that of the employed population in the sectors in question (as we will see later).

Let us now consider other aspects of the socioeconomic model applied in Antequera, in which the relevance of private initiatives is clearly less than those of the public sector. Here, we refer to policies related to infrastructure and public facilities, the areas addressed in proposition 2.1 of the second hypothesis. To understand the causes and effects of policy measures in this respect in Antequera, we must consider the theory of polarised spaces in urban centres and hierarchical axes. The concepts underlying this theory of spatial organisation in the urban environment are those applied by the regional government. The characteristics of EU financing through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and those of Antequera’s own personality are also relevant, i.e., the fact that it is a historic town with a specific area of influence, rather than an administrative municipality.

As mentioned above, the lack of private-sector business initiatives in the 1960s weakened the economic and political positions of medium-sized towns in southern Spain, although their potential remained intact. This judgment is corroborated by the few news reports published in this respect (see Table 5), according to which, between 1975 and 1980, Antequera suffered the loss of some services (Banco de España) and the deficient provision of others (Hospital de San Juan de Dios), although initiatives were taken to introduce facilities, such as middle schools.

The above-mentioned theory of polarised spaces in urban centres and hierarchical axes governed the policies for the location of infrastructures and services adopted from 1986 by the regional government. These policies were summarised in three documents: the Andalusian City System [4], the General Plan for Highways in Andalusia [57], and Basic Elements for Territorial Planning in Andalusia [5].

The first of these documents to appear, the Andalusian City System [4], designated Antequera as an intermediate centre, that is, midway between the subregional cities (i.e., the provincial capitals) and the basic urban areas. This positioning was highly relevant to the economic diversification of Antequera, since one of the fundamental proposals of the City System was precisely to strengthen the region’s medium-sized towns, through the provision of appropriate amenities and infrastructure, in the view that these towns were the most significant link in the urban systems of Andalusia. Thus, planners sought to empower the public-sector provision of services and to generate more attractive conditions to encourage companies to operate in the region, by means of improved communications and facilities. The need to upgrade the region’s infrastructure was highlighted in the General Plan for Highways in Andalusia [57], which identified this factor as vital not only to economic activity but to the basic functioning of the region’s towns and cities. Accordingly, the authorities created a hierarchy of road communications networks, one of which, the Basic Functional Network, was of special importance to Antequera, as it gave rise to the highway at the apex of this hierarchy, the A92, which provided an east–west communication route of some 400 km, crossing the entire region. In addition to this major improvement obtained by the regional territorial policy, the Antequera–Málaga section of the N331 was upgraded to highway status. This project was carried out under the jurisdiction of the central government, as the route forms part of the Network of Roads of National Interest (Figure 1). As a result, Antequera became the intersection of intense transversal flows between the two economic powerhouses of Andalusia: the Guadalquivir basin and the Mediterranean coast. Although the decisions regarding the exact layout of these major routes of communication were taken by regional and national authorities, a large proportion of the funds with which they were executed were provided by the European Union, through the ERDF [17]. Other (non-ERDF) investments funded the construction and operation of the regional hospital and the conversion and expansion of a conventional hotel/restaurant to luxury Parador status.

In addition to the above public policy documents, the Andalusian regional authorities created a planning instrument, the Basic Elements for Territorial Planning in Andalusia [5], that was directly related to the economic development model expressed in the form of the GAEIA and the industrial estate. The role assigned to Antequera in this instrument was based on its characterisation as an area that was dormant with potential, for which reason the broad goal was to “mine the local development potential and consolidate existent economic processes” [5] (p. 145).

With this observation, the discussion in this sub-section comes full circle: we started by considering the business initiatives clearly related to the town’s endogenous potential and conclude with policymakers’ proposals for development of this nature in Antequera. The question then arises: what were the attitudes and actions of the local public institutions during this period?

In the mid-1980s, two convergent actions were launched to promote local development, although they had little ‘endogenous’ content. On the one hand, the town council took over the Employment Promotion Unit that had previously been created by the Spanish National Employment Service (INEM), re-classifying the agency as a local employment initiative and re-naming it the Local Autonomous Organisation for the Promotion and Development of Antequera (LAOPDA). This action, at least on paper, represented an effort to exploit local potential, and was intended to operate on two main fronts. Firstly, by publicising, channelling and processing assistance and financial subsidies to businesses (especially local ones, although the measures also had an extra-municipal dimension) for company start-up and/or expansion. Secondly, by facilitating skills-training programmes and by reinforcing the business fabric, via the newly created Business School, which was subsequently remodelled and consolidated as the Antequera 2010 Centre for Business Development.

The second action taken was the publication of a Guide to Investing in Antequera, edited by the local administration and distributed among major national financial centres. However, this initiative is clearly not in line with the endogenous ambition for development, since its purpose was to attract non-local investment (from the provincial capital, Málaga, or from further afield). The companies involved tended to be larger, in terms of staff numbers, and in most cases their installation in and around Antequera took place with no LAOPDA involvement.

Before examining the impact of these initiatives on the socioeconomic parameters of the municipality, let us consider their relevance to an endogenous model of development that was embraced by almost all planning agencies. An initial aspect to consider is that of the real priority assigned by public policies to the goals of endogenous development. The detailed study by Belis and Villar [55] of the results achieved by the GAEIA found that the industries thus attracted had only limited capacity to resolve the deficiencies of the Andalusian industrial sector; instead, they merely emphasised or reproduced its existing dual nature [6]. Furthermore, analysis of the initiatives endorsed by the LAOPDA shows that, in seeking to expand business activity, appropriate selection criteria were not applied. Indirectly, via the Andalusian Institute for Development (IFA), which administered business incentives of this type on a regional scale, and which was mainly focused on the industrial sector, this sector did receive more support [58,59]. However, the latter agency also carried out policies of a more social nature, in areas such as promoting self-employment and providing financial support for SMEs. In fact, these forms of assistance were the most commonly requested of the LAOPDA, and enabled the participation of other economic sectors such as tourism.

Let us examine in detail the outcomes of those early initiatives. In the short term, the effect was clearly positive: the tide of emigration was reversed, and the municipal population rose significantly (Table 2). The working population also rose, with the growing (albeit still very limited) incorporation of women into the workforce (Table 3). The main factor impelling these changes was the diversification of the Antequera economy, with fewer workers employed in the country and more in industrial activities (

Table 9. Evolution of the sectoral structure of the working population. Antequera, 1980–2011.

SECTORS	1980		1991		2001		2011		INDEX NUMBER (1980: 100)
	Total	%	Total	%	Total	%	Total	%	1981	1991	2001	2011
Agriculture	2001	26.5	1814	17.9	1555	11.3	815	5.7	100	91	78	41
Industry	944	12.5	1320	13.0	1743	12.6	1475	10.3	100	140	185	156
Construction	831	11	1567	15.5	2401	17.4	1215	8.5	100	189	289	146
Services	3776	50	5414	53.5	8084	58.7	10,815	75.5	100	143	214	286
Total	7552	100	10,115	100	13,783	100	14,320	100	100	134	183	190

Sources: [35,36,37,38].

), especially those in the agriculture–food subsector (

Table 10. Evolution of the subsectoral structure of the working population in manufacturing industry. Antequera, 1991–2011.

	1991		2001		2011
Activity in the worksite	Total	%	Total	%	Total	%
Sec. C. Extractive	19	1.4	4	0.2	15	1.1
Food, drink, tobacco	473	35.8	535	30.7	730	52.9
Textile, leather, shoe, apparel	392	29.7	458	26.3	75	5.4
Furniture, wood, cork	29	2.2	114	6.5	35	2.5
Paper, graphics	44	3.3	63	3.6	35	2.5
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products	1	0.1	4	0.2	0	0.0
Chemicals and cement	91	6.9	175	10.0	95	6.9
Basic metal products	15	1.1	10	0.6	20	1.4
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment	85	6.4	132	7.6	30	2.2
Manufacture of electrical, electronic and optical products	30	2.3	93	5.3	75	5.4
Manufacture of transport equipment	23	1.7	8	0.5	0	0.0
Materials recovery and other manufacturing	60	4.5	50	2.9	115	8.3
Electricity, gas and water supply	58	4.4	97	5.6	155	11.2
Total	1.320	100	1.743	100	1380	100

Sources: [36,37,38].

). Other subsectors that expanded considerably included public-sector construction and services, an area in which many women gained employment [8]. As shown in a detailed analysis of the evolution of business establishments between 1981 and 1991 [8] (pp. 76–83), the business structure was also strengthened, with the number of employees per premise rising to 10, exceeding the corresponding values for the province of Málaga and for Andalusia as a whole. This improvement was accompanied by a new business focus, as the industrial estate filled up and became a significant factor in the economic life of the municipality, not only through its business activities but also through the owners’ organisation [56].

A detailed analysis of Table 3 shows that due to natural population growth, the working-age population increased by 5000 between 1980 and 1991. Although (

Table 11. Evolution of the active population, workers, unemployed and total population. Antequera, 1981–2011.

	1970		1980		1991		2001		2011
	Total	Un-emp. Rate	Total	Un- emp. Rate	Total	Un- emp. Rate	Total	Un- emp. Rate	Total	Un- emp. Rate
Active population	12,035		11,203		14,242		17,276		21,845
Workers			7552		10,115		13,783		14,320
Unemployed			3651	32.59	4127	28.98	3493	20.22	7525	34.45
Registered unemployed							1579	9.14	4309	19.73
Total population			35,765		38,765		40,289		41,741
Unemployment rate APS province of Málaga 1976		15.22

Sources: [33,34,35,36,37,38,40].

) only 3000 of these persons sought work (for the reason stated above), the above-mentioned changes in the local economic structure resulted in 2500 new jobs (34%). The population changes, therefore, did not bring employment supply and demand into balance: the rate of unemployment fell by 5 points, but in absolute terms, another 500 persons were classified as unemployed.

Our assessment of these outcomes should be carefully nuanced. Can we claim that with the aid of regional, national and EU policies, the socioeconomic fabric of Antequera fulfilled its ambitions, reported year after year in the pages of El Sol de Antequera? Would the new business structures maintain the success that had been achieved by the mid-1980s? Unfortunately, as we describe in the following section, the endogenous model presented considerable volatility during the economic expansion from 1995 to 2007.

3.4. 1991–2011: The Dream of Self-Rule Local Development, Gone with the Bubble

In our opinion, the abruptness and speed of the changes undergone by the socio-productive fabric of Antequera between 1991 and 2011 can be understood by applying Taylor’s theories of the impact of the economic cycles of capitalism [11] to the local scale. This approach is very appropriate because the economic context we now address is characterised by the intensity of two processes that affected the entire world: globalisation and the real estate bubble that burst in 2007.

In view of these considerations, our analysis is structured around two interrelated dimensions that impacted on the effectiveness of employment policies during this troubled period. These dimensions are, on the one hand, the production sector (in terms of specialisation, diversification, skills, innovation and protagonism in future strategies) and, on the other, the breakdown of the location/production/employment relationship. In presenting this analysis, we opted to do so in chronological order to better reflect the influence of the change of phase.

3.4.1. The Background of the Real Estate Bubble

We begin by considering the evolution of the productive fabric. In this respect, the construction sector played a leading role between 1991 and 2007, materialising the impact made in this area by developments on the international scene.

According to Aurioles [60] (p. 20), “In 1994, a phase began in which the real estate sector became a refuge for capital seeking harbour in the new Europe of the eurozone, flocking to Spain and especially to the province of Málaga… in a process facilitated by fiscal and regulatory harmonisation within the internal market, falling interest rates, the extraordinary solidity of the Spanish mortgage market and various other circumstances”. This influx of investment was part of an even greater monetary flow, but it was basically inspired by the same expansive context that facilitated public spending via the ERDF, the European Social Fund and the Common Agricultural Policy, providing the inhabitants of Antequera (and elsewhere) with significant income supplements. This new scenario obviously impacted on the study area. Between 1991 and 2001 (see Table 9), the number of workers employed in the construction sector increased by almost a thousand, while the manufacturing industry only gained 400 workers, two-thirds of whom corresponded to subsectors dependent on construction (Table 10). Thus, the producers of wood, cork and furniture quintupled, while the manufacturers of metal products (forging and ironwork) and of cement hired 50% more workers. Paradoxically, some authors have identified the generality of this increased employment throughout Andalusia as a manifestation of local development [61]. On the contrary, although more workers were also taken on in the agriculture–food subsectors, overall, these areas became less prominent in local industrial activity.

However, as shown in Table 9, the highest growth in absolute terms (2600 new employees) took place in the tertiary sector (

Table 12. Evolution of the employed population in the services subsectors. Antequera, 1991–2011.

Activity of Worksite	1991		2001		2011		Balance 2011–2001
	Total	%	Total	%	Total	%	Balance	As % Workers in Growing Activities
Wholesale trade	305	5.6	660	8.2	590	5.5	−70
Retail trade	883	16.3	1829	22.6	2095	19.4	266	9.0
Repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles	272	5.0	384	4.8	235	2.2	149
Accommodation and food service activities	420	7.8	645	8.0	1175	10.9	530	18.0
Transportation and communication	520	9.6	653	8.1	950	8.8	297	10.1
Financial and insurance activities	351	6.5	293	3.6	425	3.9	132	4.5
Business services	113	2.1	572	7.1	800	7.4	228	7.7
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security	676	12.5	732	9.1	760	7.0	28	0.9
Education	776	14.3	1011	12.5	1295	12.0	284	9.6
Health	502	9.3	917	11.3	1440	13.3	523	17.7
Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel	320	5.9	177	2.2
Other service activities	276	5.1	211	2.6	1050	9.7	662	22.4
TOTAL	5414	100	8084	100	10,815	100	2731	100

Sources: [36,37,38].

). To properly interpret the changing patterns of employment, various factors must be considered [9].

Among the employment-related policies applied, those corresponding to infrastructure and equipment reinforced the centrality component of the town’s territorial capital. On the one hand, they facilitated the conversion of Antequera into a strategic logistical location, thus increasing the demand for workers in the wholesale sector. On the other hand, policies concerning the location of public facilities, and particularly in the field of healthcare (i.e., the regional hospital), affected employment both directly (almost doubling the size of the workforce in this area) and indirectly, reinforcing local commerce (where the workforce also doubled). However, employment in the financial activities sector fell, due to the realignment of banking activities within the province, as traditional local banking establishments, founded in the context of the above-mentioned regional and agrarian capital, were absorbed into larger entities. Another relevant factor was the growing importance of agglomeration effects; in response to the generalised increase in economic activity, employment figures in business services rose fourfold. The third factor to bear in mind is the significance to this sector of the composition of the workforce. Between 1991 and 2001, new employment in the services sector was distributed almost equally between men and women.

As regards the breakdown of the location/production/employment relationship, in 1991, there existed a generalised identity between geographic origin, current residence and worksite. The net rise in population exceeded natural growth by only 11 persons during the 1991–2001 period, an outcome that is in line with an economic model based on local potential, as indicated in the Basic Elements for Territorial Planning [5]. So, between 1991 and 2001, economic growth in Antequera was not associated with an inflow of workers, and this could be interpreted as representing the success of the endogenous model. However, the 2001 Census [37] revealed that, in the construction sector, 41% of workers were employed outside the municipality (mainly in the western Costa del Sol), while in the remaining branches of economic activity, this proportion did not exceed 15%.

A notable finding in this regard is that between 1991 and 2001 the number of male workers in the industrial sector increased only slightly (whereas between 1986 and 1991 they had been predominant [8]), and female workers constituted 81% of newly recruited industrial employees. Therefore, more employment was created in construction than in the industrial sector, a change that provoked a disconnection within territorial capital, as part of the area’s human capital was separated from its physical capital.

Table 3 summarises this phase of economic activity in and around Antequera, showing that although the working-age population decreased by almost 4000 employees during the 1991–2001 period, the incorporation of women into the labour market produced an increase of almost 3000 persons in the number of residents seeking employment, thus raising the economic activity rate from 47.8 to 65 points. As shown in Table 11 and Figure 4, this was the area’s most successful period in terms of unemployment. Thus, historical minimum levels of unemployment were recorded in 2001, both in the Census and according to the data on registered unemployed.

During this phase, the employment coyote almost caught up with the unemployment roadrunner. However, this economic expansion was not an unqualified success. In fact, Taylor [11] was vindicated in his view that it is investments that make and unmake places, and it was the new investment in Antequera that materialised the diversification of urban use within a territory of great value, in terms of self-identity, heritage (dolmens in Menga and Viera) and natural resources over the fertile agricultural land around the town. However, this consequence was not viewed in a negative light by local agents. On the contrary, the Antequera Strategic Plan ‘In the centre of 2016’ (issued in 2006 [62]) reinforced this trend by targeting the municipality’s future on large infrastructures related to logistics functions (dry port, airport, rail loop) and placed little emphasis on the role of the agriculture–food sector.

3.4.2. The Backdrop of the Crisis of 2007

As indicated in the Methodology section, the periodisation of the statistical sources consulted makes it impossible to accurately determine the economic changes that took place from 2007. However, it is apparent that despite the sharp fall in labour immigration in the first years of the crisis, in January 2010 there were still 3268 more inhabitants registered in Antequera than those contributed by the difference between births and deaths (see Table 2). Thus, the demographic stagnation observed between 1991 and 2001 had been overcome. On the other hand, it is apparent from Figure 5 that this intercensal period spanned the brusque inflection of unemployment in 2007.

This sudden and intense immigration underscores the above-mentioned disjunction between place of birth and place of work. In this respect, two components can be identified. The first is the increasing trend for workers to seek employment outside the municipality. Thus,

Table 13. Work place of Antequera workers, 2011.

	Workers
Work Place	Total	%
Antequera	11,305	78.95
Málaga city	565	3.95
Another municipality in Málaga province	680	4.75
Municipality in an adjoining province	380	2.65
Other province and region	250	1.75
Several municipalities	1140	7.96
	14,320	100

Source [38].

shows that 21% of the working population resident in Antequera actually worked outside the municipality, and half of these were employed in another province altogether. Our analysis of the distribution of professions (

Table 14. Relationship between work place and occupation. Antequera, 2011.

Spanish National Classification of Occupations (CNO)		Antequera	Another Municipality in Málaga Province	Another Province in Andalusia	Another Region	Several Municipalities	Total
0—Military professions	Total	0	0	15	15	0	30
	%	0	0	50	50	0	100
1—Managers	Total	385	60	10	10	30	495
	%	78	12	2	2	6	100
2—Technicians and scientists	Total	1415	335	195	45	80	2070
	%	68	16	9	2	4	100
3—Technicians; supporting staff	Total	1005	100	10	15	195	1325
	%	76	8	1	1	15	100
4—Accountants, administrative staff and other office workers	Total	1185	210	40	35	45	1515
	%	78	14	3	2	3	100
5—Salaried workers in catering services, personal services, security and shopkeepers	Total	2990	205	25	45	210	3475
	%	86	6	1	1	6	100
6—Skilled workers in agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing	Total	375	0	0	0	65	440
	%	85	0	0	0	15	100
7—Artisans and skilled workers in manufacturing and construction (except plant and machinery operators)	Total	1290	95	50	10	120	1565
	%	82	6	3	1	8	100
8—Plant and machinery operators and assemblers	Total	845	110	35	0	240	1230
	%	69	9	3	0	20	101
9—Basic occupations	Total	1820	125	45	35	155	2180
	%	83	6	2	2	7	100
Total	Total	11,310	1240	425	210	1140	14,325
	%	79	9	3	1	8	100

Source [38].

) reveals that those more likely (by 10–15 points) to be employed outside the municipality were mainly skilled workers (technicians and technical support staff), managers, specialists (such as machine operators) and office personnel. Several factors explain this trend. Firstly, the improved transport infrastructure, which facilitated the incorporation of Antequera within an employment basin extending south to the city of Málaga, east to Loja, north to Córdoba and west to Seville. Furthermore, the fact that while the productive fabric of Antequera was capable of attracting and absorbing labour in sectors that required few skills or qualifications, it had much less capacity to attract or retain more qualified workers.

Another component of the separation between workers’ geographic origin, residence and worksite was the arrival in the municipality of non-local labour during the decade from 2001 to 2011.

Table 15. Labour immigration. Antequera, 2001 and 2011.

		Full-Time Workers	Part-Time Workers	Unemployed	Unemployed Seeking 1st Employment	C Economically Active	% C/A, B
A Total Population 2011	41,590	12045	2275	6390	1135	21845	52.5
B Newcomers 2001–2011	3905	1650	350	895	125	3020	77.3
% B/A	9.4	13.7	15.4	14.0	11.0	13.8

Source [37,38].

illustrates the relation between the arrival of new residents in the municipality, the evolution of the active population and that of the employed population, applying the variable “Year of arrival in the municipality” from the 2011 Census. Analysis of these data reveals that 3020 persons entered the labour market from outside the municipality during this period, accounting for 60% of the total of 4569 recorded in this respect between 2001 and 2011, a situation that would have been unthinkable for policymakers 30 years before.

The above-mentioned disengagement was accompanied by a profound restructuring of manufacturing activities (Table 10) and by intensive growth in the tertiary sector of the economy (Table 12). A major factor in this restructuring was the volatility of the construction sector and related activities. Between 2001 and 2011, the number of workers employed in construction fell by 300 (Table 9), but job losses among manufacturers supplying this sector were even more intense: thus, companies supplying wood, cork, furniture, forging and ironwork shed two thirds of their workforce, and employment in the cement industry fell by half. Moreover, as mentioned above, another factor, that of the delocalisation of mature manufacturing sectors or of labour-intensive industries, took a heavy toll, while the textile subsector was decimated, losing nearly 75% of its workforce. The only manufacturing subsector where employment was not only maintained, but actually rose by 50%, was that of agriculture-food, for the reasons explained below.

The tertiary sector (Table 9) accounted for all this growth in employment, rising to account for 75% of all the jobs in the municipality. As can be seen in Table 12, this new role was accompanied by intense internal restructuring, in which the hospitality industry expanded most vigorously. The analysis of these tertiary activities is detailed in Section 3.4.3.

However, this growth in the tertiary sector did not compensate for the losses in manufacturing or the growth in the active population. In consequence, the unemployed roadrunner sprinted away from the job-creating coyote, as can be seen in Figure 5. Although the active age population only increased by 1000 between 2001 and 2011 (Table 3), the incorporation of almost 3000 women into paid work meant that the activity rate rose by almost 15 points, which the demand for labour was unable to absorb. Hence, by 2011 (see Table 11, and Figure 5) the unemployed population according to the Census had increased by 4000 while the number of registered unemployed had increased by almost 3000, producing unemployment rates of 34% and 19%, respectively.

3.4.3. After the Bubble: The Return to Unemployment and to Dependence on Territorial Resources

In relation to this breach of European policy guidelines, Hypothesis 2 subordinates the effectiveness of public policies in reducing unemployment to the quality of institutional capital within the prevailing business culture.

As made apparent in the previous section, an initial manifestation of the weakness of institutional capital in the present context, in terms of the “capacity of the local system to regulate itself” [26] (p. 48), is that the intense growth that had taken place was spurred by external stimuli, mainly financial, and had largely escaped the control of the local productive fabric. As observed above, one of the consequences of this volatility was a sharp rise in unemployment. Applying the aforementioned theoretical principles, we approximate the local business culture by considering the presence of innovative activities and the incorporation of skilled human resources into the productive fabric as significant manifestations of this culture. As explained in the Section 2, this analysis is conducted by reference to groups (complexes) of economic activities, which are discussed below.

Agriculture–Food

This complex is associated with territorial capital in multiple ways, for example, in agricultural activities and their social structure and traditional forms of food production and transformation such as bakeries, pastry shops and the processing of olive production into oil and green olives. As can be seen in Table 9, one of the principal changes experienced in the Antequera socioeconomic fabric in the twenty years to 1991 is that rural employment fell from 17.5% of the working population to just 5.7%, which is indicative of a significant diversification of the productive fabric. This loss of agricultural workers is the main cause of the increased productivity among the employed population (data for the active population are not available), which rose from 1.58 to 2.64 AWU/capita, since the intensity of land use remained low and unchanged, at around 0.05 AWU/ha (see Table 7). Therefore, after 25 years, the Agrarian Reform had had only minimal effect on agricultural employment. In this respect, the increase in the number of small and medium-sized farms (<5 and 20–50 hectares, respectively, see Table 6) was not a significant factor, thus confirming the obsolescence of Agrarian Reform as a policy instrument, as affirmed by Ocaña [63].

In contrast to the job losses experienced in the rural environment, the agriculture–food industry, where its products were transformed and processed, expanded employment significantly (Table 10), outstripping other sectors of the local economy, which were hard hit when the real estate bubble burst in 2007. An earlier analysis of this context [64] highlighted the decision of policymakers in this sector to expand their area of influence beyond the municipality, creating one of the largest cooperatives in Spain in the olive-growing subsector [65]. At the same time (as commented above), the 2006 Strategic Plan [62] omitted the agriculture–food sector from its proposals for 2016, although this manufacturing subsector was the only one to achieve sustained employment growth, immune to the fluctuations experienced elsewhere (see Table 10).

Figure 6 illustrates the evolution of this subsector, compared to that of the productive fabric as a whole in Antequera during this period, highlighting the contrast between the instability of mercantile companies and a medium-term trend of stability of firms. Furthermore, the different peaks of agrarian mercantile companies and of those in the industrial and energy sectors may be interpreted as evidence of the absence of connection between them. In this context, our examination of the composition by occupational groups (

Table 16. Workers in agriculture–food activities classified by occupations (CNO). Antequera, 2011.

Activity of Worksite Two-Digit Disaggregation CNAE09	Workers (One-Digit Spanish National Classification of Occupations, CNO)
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total	Workers (1)
											Total	% (2)
01. Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities Total	*	*	*	*	*	310	*	110	305	725	815	89
%						43		15	42	100
10. Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco products Total	*	*	*	70	*	*	210	165	90	535	730	73
%				13			39	31	17	100
75. Veterinary activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	15

(1) Workers in this activity; (2) % workers with cross information about CNO compared to (1); to identify CNO numbers see Table 14. * Information available for less than five sampling units. Source [38].

) reveals the weakness of this complex in terms of professional skills.

In general, there is a significant underrepresentation of the more highly skilled professions that would facilitate the introduction of innovation processes and increase competitiveness by means other than low wages. On the other hand, specialisation is apparent in the intrinsic profile of some sub-sectors: category 6 (“Skilled workers in agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing”) accounts for 43% of all agricultural workers, while category 7 (“Artisans and skilled workers in manufacturing and construction (except plant and machinery operators”) and category 8 (“Plant and machinery operators and assemblers”) represent 70% of those employed in the agriculture–food industry subsector. However, the participation of “Managers” (category 1), “Technicians and scientists” (category 2) and “Support technicians” (category 3) is very slight, below the level established by sampling and confidentiality requirements, and therefore not reported. Clearly, then, the stability of the number of firms did not produce any significant strengthening of this sector.

Construction

As can be seen in Figure 7, the variables reflecting the business structure evolved in different ways. While the overall number of establishments remained stable, mercantile companies experienced considerable volatility (as described above), in line with the sharp fall in the working population.

The data shown in

Table 17. Workers in construction activities classified by occupations (CNO). Antequera. 2011.

	Workers (One-Digit Spanish National Classification of Occupations, CNO)
Activity of Worksite Two-Digit Disaggregation CNAE09	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total	Workers (1)
											Total	% (2)
08. Other mining and quarrying											15
41. Construction of buildings	*	75	125	*	*	*	250	*	85	450	595	76
%		17	28				56		19	100
42. Civil engineering	*	*	*	*	*	*	160	*	*	160	345	46
%							100			100
43. Specialised construction activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	145	*	*	145	275	58
%							100			100
68. Real estate activities											90
81. Services to buildings and landscape activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	95		175	54
%									100	0

(1) Workers in this activity; (2)% workers with cross information about CNO compared to (1); to identify CNO numbers see Table 14. * Information available for less than five sampling units. Source [38].

reflect this pattern of events and facilitate an understanding of the evolution of the socioeconomic fabric in Antequera during the crisis. In comparison with the agriculture–food complex, the construction industry employed a higher proportion of more skilled occupations. Thus, category 2 (“Technical and scientific and intellectual professionals”) accounted for 17% of the employed population in this sector, while 28% were classed as category 3 (“Technicians; support professionals”), versus 19% in unskilled jobs. Therefore, the construction sector in Antequera retained skilled workers but not the abundant unskilled labour that it had absorbed in 2001. In “Civil engineering” and “Specialised construction activities”, all workers belong to category 7 (“Artisans and skilled workers in manufacturing and construction (except plant and machinery operators”). This is also relevant to the fact that real estate activities do not even appear in this statistical summary due to the low number of persons employed in this sub-sector, compared with the spectacular growth (almost 300%) in the number of firms between 2004 and 2005 [41]. In this area, the volatility of the real estate bubble is most forcefully apparent. To complete our analysis, let us consider two subsectors largely reliant on unskilled labour, namely building services and gardening, and public works.

Public and Private Services Related to the Town’s Geographic Centrality and District Capital Status

In

Table 18. Services activities grouped by functional relationship. Occupational distribution (CNO) of their workers. Antequera, 2011.

		Workers (One-Digit Spanish National Classification of Occupations, CNO)
	Activity of Worksite Two-Digit Disaggregation CNAE09	1-	2-	3-	4-	5-	6-	7-	8-	9-	Total Workers
District capital status	84. Public administration and defence; compulsory social security	*	85	120	185	275	*	*	*	*	760
	85. Education	*	935	105	70	110	*	*	*	50	1295
	86. Human health activities	*	565	80	85	310	*	*	*	*	1155
	88. Social work activities without accommodation	*	*	*	*	75	*	*	*	*	100
Tourism and recreation	55. Accommodation	*	*	*	*	205	*	*	*	95	450
	56. Food and beverage service activities	*	*	*	*	550	*	*	*	90	725
	79. Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation services and related activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	10
	93. Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	75
Skills-based business services	61. Telecommunications	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	45
	62. Computer programming, consultancy and related activities	*	*	95	*	*	*	*	*	*	105
	69. Legal and accounting activities	*	85	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	110
	70. Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	50
	71. Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	85
	74. Other professional, scientific and technical activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	10
	78. Employment activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	10
	80. Security and investigation activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	15
	82. Office administrative, office support and other business support activities	*	*	*	115	*	*	*	*	*	230
Skilled services related to culture	58. Edition	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	20 *
	59. Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	20 *
	60. Programming and broadcasting activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	25 *
	63. Information service activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	75
	90. Creative, arts and entertainment activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	14
	91. Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	20 *

To identify CNO numbers see Table 14. * Information available for less than five sampling units. Source [38].

, we identified this complex of activities as “District capital status”. The data shown in Figure 8 and Table 12 and Table 18 allow us to test proposition 2.1. of the second hypothesis. Twenty years after their application in Antequera, the policies implemented to foster the provision of public infrastructure had attracted a corresponding expansion of private facilities, not only in the retail trade, but also regarding areas of skilled employment, such as education and healthcare. Indeed, the number of establishments in the latter area increased more than in any other, which may be indicative of the private origin of their financing. Moreover, this was the only complex in which the most highly qualified personnel predominated numerically. The other function enhanced by policies aimed at enhancing the local infrastructure was that of logistics. The more recent evolution in this area has featured a rise in the number of establishments and of persons employed. We believe these findings reflect the importance of Antequera as the district capital, which attracted employment in the public sector (healthcare and, to a lesser extent, education), in particular. This would explain why the proportion of workers employed in healthcare and retail trade and that were resident in Antequera was almost one point higher than the corresponding ratio for the province of Málaga as a whole. In summary: during the 40 years addressed in this study, the town’s district capital function was clearly reinforced by the combination of public and private sector activities, materialised in equipment and infrastructure.

Tourism: First and Foremost, after the Bubble. Is It Related to Skilled Employment in Cultural Services?

In Table 18, this set of activities is termed “Tourism and recreation”. Table 12 shows that employment in the hotel and catering industry grew more strongly than in any other in the services sector, almost doubling between 2001 and 2011. Similarly, Figure 9 illustrates intense growth among all types of establishment (hotels and restaurants), including the ‘premium’ category, from which we conclude that this sub-sector played a major role in the economic performance of Antequera. The question then arises: what economic model should we use to analyse this situation? As explained by Gómez [8] and as reported in El Sol de Antequera 40 years ago, the material historical heritage of Antequera (accumulated over 4500 years and restored to prominence in the last 20) is a powerful magnet for tourist activity. Although the crisis of 2007 paralysed urban development projects related to other dimensions of tourism, the 2016 recognition by UNESCO of the Menga–Viera–Romeral–Torcal–Peña de los Enamorados complex as a World Heritage Site provided an immense boost, on an international scale, to the region’s fortunes. The investment that took place in the rehabilitation of the town’s heritage, together with the activities of training schools and workshops, suggest the area should be addressed within the economic model of endogenous development, insofar as local resources were deployed to reinforce both heritage values and the capacity of the workforce.

However, our analysis of the characteristics of employment in the hotel and catering sector reveals two significant facts that do not fit into the above model. One is a certain reluctance among the local residents to enter this profession, which we deduce (perhaps wrongly) from the fact that the 2011 Population Census [38], which relates the two-digit CNO with the employee’s place of origin, assigns the 211 workers born abroad to a single profession: category 51 “Salaried workers in catering services”. We believe this finding may reflect an unwillingness among the native-born population to work in the hospitality trade because, at the same time, the Census recorded a local unemployment figure of 7525. Perhaps low wages and an unattractive work schedule are at the root of this circumstance? The 211 persons in question represent 17% of those employed in this sector but 40% of new entrants. The other fact that should be considered is the low level of professional skills of this important fraction of the employed population, as the Census did not detect sufficient individuals in higher-ranking professions to pass the confidentiality control. Thus, the entire working population in this area were classed as category 5 “Salaried workers in catering, personal services, protection and sales” or category 9 “Basic occupations”. Our study of the “Skilled services related to culture” complex (

Table 19. Distribution of workers in “Skilled services related to culture”. Comparison of Andalusia, province of Málaga and Antequera, 2011.

Activity of Worksite Two-Digit Disaggregation CNAE09	Andalusia		Málaga		Antequera
	Total	%	Total	%	Total	%
58. Edition	3830	12	920	14	20	11
59. Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities	2370	8	425	7	20	11
60. Programming and broadcasting activities	4900	16	860	13	25	14
63. Information service activities	7340	23	1470	23	75	41
90. Creative, arts and entertainment activities	9320	30	1945	30	14	14
91. Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities	3640	12	825	13	20	11
Total	31,400	100	6445	100	185	100
% over total workers in services	1.58		1.49		1.71

Source [38].

) shows that although its presence is somewhat greater in Antequera than in Málaga province and in the region of Andalusia, analysis of these results is a complex matter. For example, the subsector “Information services” accounts for 40% of this workforce (almost double that of any other category), while the “Libraries, archives, museums and other activities” subsector does not reflect the important role of heritage mentioned above, since it accounts for just 11% of employment in this area, two points less than in the province and in the region.

Skills-Based Business Services

Parejo and Gómez [9] highlighted the scant importance of this employment sector in the 2001 Census (lower in Antequera than in the province). The results for “Skills-based business services” (

Table 20. Distribution of workers in “Skills-based business services”. Comparison of Andalusia, province of Málaga and Antequera, 2011.

Activity of Worksite Two-Digit Disaggregation CNAE09	Andalusia		Málaga		Antequera
	Total	%	Total	%	Total	%
69. Legal and accounting activities	40,720	22	9795	24	110	16
70. Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities	8890	5	2045	5	50	7
71. Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis	24,145	13	3940	10	85	13
72. Scientific research and development	9010	5	1025	3	0	0
73. Advertising and market research	5425	3	1220	3	0	0
74. Other professional, scientific and technical activities	16,310	9	3420	8	10	1
61. Telecommunications	18,205	10	4410	11	105	16
62. Computer programming, consultancy and related activities	22,610	12	4910	12	45	7
78. Employment activities	2195	1	635	2	10	1
80. Security and investigation activities	11,250	6	2790	7	15	2
82. Office administrative, office support and other business support activities	28,295	15	6130	15	230	34
Total	188,930	100	40,635	100	675	100
% over total workers in services	9.51		9.37		6.24

Source [38].

) are even more discouraging than in 2001, since the already-small employment numbers in subsectors such as “Advertising and market studies” and “Scientific research and development” have disappeared entirely. Moreover, in Antequera this occupational group represents just 6% of all those employed in services, compared to 9% in the other main scales. The same pattern is apparent with regard to “Administrative office activities and other activities”, a category of less specialised work, which accounts for a relatively large proportion (34%) of employment, more than double that recorded at the provincial and regional levels.

These terms, together with the low level of employment qualification prevailing in most activities, underpin our Hypothesis 2, namely the relationship between the failure of employment promotion policies and the prevailing business culture. In our view, the scant commitment to innovation shown by the latter explains the strong cyclical component of employment, which reduces or nullifies the impact of these policies.

4. Discussion and Conclusions

Hypothesis 1.

Identification of the factors that account for the ineffectiveness of the employment policies applied.

The validity of the results presented suffers from a fundamental limitation, acknowledged in Section 1.2, namely, the lack of a bibliography providing case studies conducted according to an appropriate scale and level of detail in the evolution of the study variables that would enable us to properly test the hypotheses proposed and the conclusions drawn. On the other hand, one of the principal contributions of this research is the validity of its premises and sources and the methodology applied. Such a medium-term approach is needed to identify matches and mismatches between the policy goals described and the reactions of the local business community. The changes observed in the productive fabric, in unemployment figures and in the quality of employment reveal the responses of local agents to two forces that are not always convergent: policy initiatives and changes in the international scenario.

Although, as indicated above, our study results cannot be discussed in direct comparison with those of case studies performed in other settings, they can be considered in the light of previous research outcomes, both theoretical and those corresponding to Spanish case analyses.

1. Period 1980–1991.

1.1. The employment patterns observed during the 1980–1991 period mesh with the postulates discussed above: rather than growth, policymakers sought to bolster the socio-productive fabric, reducing unemployment via public and private initiatives. Contrasting the real achievements made with the phases defined by Garofoli, we confirm that Antequera and Italia di mezzo both feature “relatively cohesive productive and social systems, frequently based on implicit networks of inter-company collaboration, strong social integration and the recognition of territorial identity, sufficiently coherent with public and private interventions and decisions, particularly in the sphere of social services, but frequently too as concerns promoting SMEs and, sometimes, resolving skills-training and occupational problems” [14] (p. 77).

1.2. However, the context in which this “coherence” occurs is volatile in various respects:

1.2.1. The abundance of inexpensive local manpower in a semi peripheral zone during Phase B of the economic cycle;

1.2.2. In our view, these approaches by regional and local policies suffer from a lack of definition between two alternatives that are rarely compatible in the short and medium term: they either create employment, but without investing large sums in the process; or they generate a socioeconomic fabric capable of competing in the world economy.

2. Period 1991–2007.

The volatility of these conditions was determined by the new context of globalisation and by phase A of the subsequent economic cycle.

2.1. The new productive fabric created in the previous phase was incapable of competing in the new economic conditions of the global economy. These results coincide with those of other investigations, which interpret them as being an indirect effect of globalisation, namely, the lack of competitiveness among European firms manufacturing labour-intensive goods. Ponce [29] analysed qualitative (precariousness, low wages) and quantitative aspects of this loss of manufacturing employment in an approach that can be extended to the context of Antequera.

2.2. On the contrary, the construction sector (the protagonist of the Real Estate Bubble) developed a new coherence, with a highly speculative component that satisfied the ambitions both of employers and of workers. In line with prior research in this field [66], we believe that work conditions and wages in the construction industry were very attractive, compared to the industrial sector, for example, where wages for unskilled labour were generally lower. Thus, the institutions in Antequera wagered decisively on the construction sector, a focus that contrasts with the proliferation of inter-agency contacts observed elsewhere in the field of manufacturing, for example, in the region of Valencia [19]. A similar lack of collaboration networks has also been detected in other parts of Andalusia [25]. Accordingly, the following question arises: In academic discourse, how have the effects of the real estate bubble and labour immigration been incorporated into studies of local development? In fact, from the texts consulted, there seems to be a stark division of opinions, arising from the structuring of epistemological disciplines. Many studies of the effects of the real estate bubble focus only on its effects on urban land, on the supply of housing or on corruption, without considering its relationship with local development and without considering that, with respect to public works, the bubble often provided a route for the application of ERDF financing—which, as observed above, was intended, among other objectives, to support the role of local development within the European economy [67].

2.3. In contrast to the coherence presented by local agents, in Antequera (and as noted in the bibliographic review), studies of local development during this period show that formerly dominant activities, based on the ready availability of labour, were replaced by others reflecting the new technological paradigm associated with industry sectors making intensive use of human capital (R&D&i) and with the configuration and strengthening of networks combining the activities of multiple agents. The capacity for the survival of local production systems in a more competitive framework would depend on their incorporating this new approach, which was to govern the two major economic planning frameworks established in Andalusia during the 20 years considered. The stated goals of the 1994–1999 Regional Support Framework and the 2000–2006 Andalusian Regional Development Plan were to raise the level of organisational capital and to strengthen the availability of human and technological capital in the region [68]. From the documents published in this respect (mandatory in order to access EU resources), such as the six Social Partnership Plans issued between 1993 and 2008, which were endorsed by social agents and the Andalusian government and concerned issues such as the knowledge society and the quality of employment (but not the construction industry as a priority concern), we infer that policymakers generally accepted the above-mentioned theoretical approaches. The rupture between the evolution of the real economy in Andalusia and Antequera, on the one hand, and academic and technical attitudes towards employment, on the other, is located in the stage that Garofoli [14] sets, at the EU level, between 2000 and 2020, characterised by an incapacity to reorganise national and territorial productive systems in the face of the challenges posed by globalisation, with the consequence of significant deindustrialisation. Consideration of the study by De la Porte and Jacobsen [69] allows us to locate the case of Antequera within the context of the European Union as a whole, showing that, in Spain, this formal acceptance of the postulates of EU employment policies was practically annulled by the progressive deregulation of employment conditions, thus consolidating its commodification.

Therefore, the weakness of the business structure and the insufficient skills of the precarious workforce were not remedied by the influx of new investment. The commitment of these firms to the future of the host community was subject to their ability to increase revenues without having to update their business model through technological advance and innovation. Indeed, far from incorporating the necessary innovations to improve competitiveness, the driving forces of the socio-productive fabric in Antequera held innovation to mean increasing the amount of land developed, in whatever shape and form, and development to mean increasing their own personal wealth.

Another dimension of this process is the fact that the local scale of employment policies was no longer consistent with the reality of demographic and socio-productive dynamics. Indeed, this business focus, which was accompanied by strong population growth (driven by immigration) also featured a disconnection for many construction workers between their place of residence and their place of work. This fact highlights the problem encountered in measuring business expansion within local development: Which aspect(s) should be targeted: the stability and skills level of the workforce or the quantitative growth of business activity?

3. Period 2007–2015.

The answer to this question, in the case we study, is starkly apparent: the change to Phase B of the economic cycle provoked a severe mismatch between the supply and demand for labour. Unemployment rose sharply and tourism-related activities became the most dynamic sector of the local economy. These developments, naturally, did not reflect the goals of the regional employment policies conducted during this period. Once again, the low level of occupational skills would seem to have limited the town’s capacity to achieve the self-regulation needed to manage the valuable elements available to the tourism industry and thus ensure successful local development, as has been observed in prior research into the relation between tourism and heritage values [18,70,71].

Hypothesis 2.

What contributions are made by the theoretical framework of local development to guide employment policies in semi-peripheral areas of Europe, and what limitations may be encountered?

In this regard, our conclusions are contradictory. On the one hand, the study results show that the non-introduction of practices based on business culture maintains or heightens the town’s vulnerability to economic cycles, and hence to rising unemployment. On the other hand, this theoretical framework does not answer the fundamental question of how to overcome the inertia of a productive fabric that is characterised by the weakness of its institutional capital.

Among other limitations presented by this conceptual framework, although Dematteis and Governa include capital (in the form of infrastructure and equipment) among the components of local development, there is little or no discussion of the consequences for employment of the investment and contributions by public institutions. However, in Antequera, we show that these factors had a longer-lasting impact on the creation of skilled employment than those of the prevailing business culture.

In view of these considerations, we propose as future lines of research: (1) to extend our study of the productive fabric to the 2015–2021 phase (when the final results of the 2021 Census become available), and (2) to identify main local stakeholders in order to conduct a survey regarding business culture (b.1) and business relationships and networks (b.2).