Impact of COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies on Traffic Congestion, Mobility, and NO2 Pollution
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- SDPs are associated with a reduction in average daily traffic congestion and mobility relative to pre-lockdown levels, after adjusting for snow, day of the week, federal holidays, seasonality, and autocorrelation within cities. Further, the reduction in congestion becomes more pronounced as SDPs become stricter. Note: We define 9 March 2020 as the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. “Pre-lockdown” refers to observations that occurred from 1 January 2019 to 8 March 2020. “Post-lockdown” refers to observations that occurred from 9 March 2020 to 31 August 2020.
- There is a strong positive association between average daily traffic congestion and average daily NO2 after adjusting for temperature, wind, and autocorrelation within cities.
- Changes in average daily NO2 levels observed post-lockdown are partially mediated by changes in daily average traffic congestion.
- 4.
- Community-level sociodemographic factors including race, educational attainment, citizenship, and population density are associated with NO2 air pollution. Furthermore, community demographics are associated with differences in the reduction in NO2 air pollution during the COVID-19 pandemic relative to its forecasted value.
2. Literature Review
3. Research Methodology
3.1. Data Description
3.2. Data Cleaning
3.2.1. TomTom Traffic Congestion
3.2.2. Unacast Mobility
3.2.3. Ambient NO2
3.2.4. NOAA Weather
3.2.5. COVID-19 Social Distancing Polices
3.2.6. Community Demographics
3.3. Regression Analyses
3.3.1. Impact of SDPs on Congestion and Mobility
3.3.2. Impact of Congestion on NO2
3.3.3. Impact of Congestion on Seasonally Adjusted NO2
3.3.4. Mediation Analysis
3.3.5. Measuring Equity in NO2 Exposure across Community Demographics
3.3.6. Model Selection
4. Analysis and Results
4.1. Summary Statistics
4.2. Impact of SDPs on Congestion and Mobility
4.3. Impact of Congestion on NO2
4.4. Impact of Congestion on Seasonally Adjusted NO2
4.5. Mediation Analysis
4.6. Measuring Equity in NO2 Exposure across Community Demographics
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions and Recommendations
7. Future Research
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Pre-Lockdown 1 | Post-Lockdown 2 | |
---|---|---|
(N = 9526) 3 | (N = 3872) | |
SDPs | ||
No Restrictions | 9526 (100.0%) | 135 (3.5%) |
Minor Restrictions | 0 (0.0%) | 1634 (42.2%) |
Moderate Restrictions | 0 (0.0%) | 658 (17.0%) |
Major Restrictions | 0 (0.0%) | 798 (20.6%) |
Closed | 0 (0.0%) | 647 (16.7%) |
TomTom: % Change in Congestion from Baseline | ||
N | 1540 | 3872 |
Mean (SD) | −3.9 (25.9) | −60.1 (17.6) |
Median (Q1, Q3) | −4.2 (−16.7, 8.3) | −62.5 (−72.0, −50.0) |
Unacast: % Change in Mobility from Baseline | ||
N | 308 | 3872 |
Mean (SD) | 0.8 (4.2) | −30.5 (17.1) |
Median (Q1, Q3) | 0.8 (−2.0, 3.4) | −28.8 (−43.1, −17.2) |
Daily Average NO2 Concentration (ppb) | ||
N | 9526 | 3872 |
Mean (SD) | 12.5 (6.6) | 8.6 (4.1) |
Median (Q1, Q3) | 11.3 (7.7, 16.1) | 8.2 (5.5, 11.2) |
Snow4 | ||
Heavy Snow | 39 (0.4%) | 2 (0.1%) |
Light Snow | 393 (4.1%) | 27 (0.7%) |
No Snow | 9094 (95.5%) | 3843 (99.3%) |
Daily Temperature (°C)5 | ||
N | 9526 | 3872 |
Mean (SD) | 13.8 (10.6) | 20.4 (8.0) |
Median (Q1, Q3) | 14.2 (5.5, 22.8) | 22.2 (14.7, 26.4) |
Fastest Daily 2 Minute Wind Speed (m/s) | ||
N | 9526 | 3872 |
Mean (SD) | 8.6 (2.9) | 8.9 (2.8) |
Median (Q1, Q3) | 8.1 (6.3, 10.3) | 8.1 (6.7, 10.3) |
Effect | TomTom Congestion | Unacast Mobility | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Estimate (95% CI) | p-Value | Estimate (95% CI) | p-Value | |
Intercept | −21.95 (−28.23, −15.66) | <0.001 | −17.92 (−22.04, −13.8) | <0.001 |
SDP: Minor | −17.96 (−21.36, −14.56) | <0.001 | −5.65 (−7.9, −3.39) | <0.001 |
SDP: Moderate | −20.94 (−24.87, −17.01) | <0.001 | −8.17 (−10.81, −5.54) | <0.001 |
SDP: Major | −20.66 (−25.17, −16.14) | <0.001 | −9.68 (−12.7, −6.67) | <0.001 |
SDP: Closed | −23.47 (−28.12, −18.82) | <0.001 | −13.48 (−16.59, −10.36) | <0.001 |
SDP: None | Reference | |||
Heavy Snow | 38.88 (29.46, 48.3) | <0.001 | −12.34 (−17.94, −6.73) | <0.001 |
Light Snow | −0.54 (−3.45, 2.37) | 0.715 | −2.2 (−3.96, −0.44) | 0.014 |
Sunday | −4.14 (−5, −3.29) | <0.001 | −2.68 (−3.18, −2.17) | <0.001 |
Monday | −8.62 (−9.53, −7.72) | <0.001 | −0.62 (−1.17, −0.07) | 0.028 |
Tuesday | −11.96 (−12.89, −11.04) | <0.001 | 1.74 (1.17, 2.31) | <0.001 |
Wednesday | −11.46 (−12.39, −10.53) | <0.001 | 1.37 (0.8, 1.94) | <0.001 |
Thursday | −10.52 (−11.43, −9.62) | <0.001 | 0.27 (−0.28, 0.82) | 0.336 |
Friday | −6.49 (−7.36, −5.63) | <0.001 | −1.3 (−1.8, −0.79) | <0.001 |
Saturday | Reference | |||
Federal Holiday | −13.27 (−15.76, −10.79) | <0.001 | −1.52 (−3, −0.04) | 0.044 |
Effect | Estimate (95% CI) | p-Value |
---|---|---|
Intercept | 11.2633 (9.7794, 12.9723) | <0.001 |
TomTom Congestion | 1.0248 (1.0232, 1.0263) | <0.001 |
Wind (m/s) | 0.9634 (0.9605, 0.9663) | <0.001 |
Temperature (°C) | 0.9953 (0.9939, 0.9968) | <0.001 |
Effect | Estimate (95% CI) | p-Value |
---|---|---|
Intercept | −3.2143 (−3.5741, −2.8544) | <0.001 |
TomTom Congestion | 0.1637 (0.1478, 0.1797) | <0.001 |
Seasonally Adjusted Wind (m/s) | −0.4485 (−0.4831, −0.4139) | <0.001 |
Seasonally Adjusted Temp (°C) | 0.1000 (0.0679, 0.1321) | <0.001 |
Effect | Estimate (95% CI) | p-Value |
---|---|---|
Intercept | 8.2644 (5.0422, 13.5458) | <0.001 |
Wind | 0.9627 (0.9607, 0.9648) | <0.001 |
Temperature | 0.993 (0.9917, 0.9942) | <0.001 |
Race: Black | 1.0018 (0.9972, 1.0065) | 0.442 |
Race: Asian | 0.9966 (0.9829, 1.0104) | 0.627 |
Race: Two or More | 0.9813 (0.955, 1.0084) | 0.174 |
Race: Other | 1.0013 (0.9894, 1.0133) | 0.836 |
Education: Less Than High School | 0.9961 (0.9802, 1.0123) | 0.636 |
Education: High School | 1.0112 (0.9951, 1.0275) | 0.173 |
Education: Some College | 1.0027 (0.9847, 1.0211) | 0.767 |
Non-Citizen | 1.037 (1.0151, 1.0594) | 0.001 |
Population Density | 1.0091 (0.9659, 1.0543) | 0.684 |
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Winchester, A.K.; Peterson, R.A.; Carter, E.; Sammel, M.D. Impact of COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies on Traffic Congestion, Mobility, and NO2 Pollution. Sustainability 2021, 13, 7275. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137275
Winchester AK, Peterson RA, Carter E, Sammel MD. Impact of COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies on Traffic Congestion, Mobility, and NO2 Pollution. Sustainability. 2021; 13(13):7275. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137275
Chicago/Turabian StyleWinchester, Alyse K., Ryan A. Peterson, Ellison Carter, and Mary D. Sammel. 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies on Traffic Congestion, Mobility, and NO2 Pollution" Sustainability 13, no. 13: 7275. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137275