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Article

Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model

1
Department of Geography, University of Murcia, 30001 Murcia, Spain
2
Group of Environmental Fluid Dynamics, Andalusian Institute for Earth System Research (IISTA), University of Granada, 18006 Granada, Spain
3
Soil and Water Conservation Research Group, Centro de Edafología y Biología Aplicada del Segura (CEBAS), Spanish Research Council (CSIC), 30100 Murcia, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Tommaso Caloiero
Sustainability 2021, 13(13), 7120; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137120
Received: 7 May 2021 / Revised: 18 June 2021 / Accepted: 21 June 2021 / Published: 24 June 2021
This research studies the effect of climate change on the hydrological behavior of two semi-arid basins. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used with the simulation of two future climate change scenarios, one Representative Concentration Pathway moderate (RCP 4.5) and the other extreme (RCP 8.5). Three future periods were considered: close (2019–2040), medium (2041–2070), and distant (2071–2100). In addition, several climatic projections of the EURO-CORDEX model were selected, to which different bias correction methods were applied before incorporation into the SWAT model. The statistical indices for the monthly flow simulations showed a very good fit in the calibration and validation phases in the Upper Mula stream (NS = 0.79–0.87; PBIAS = −4.00–0.70%; RSR = 0.44–0.46) and the ephemeral Algeciras stream (NS = 0.78–0.82; PBIAS = −8.10–−8.20%; RSR = 0.4–0.42). Subsequently, the impact of climate change in both basins was evaluated by comparing future flows with those of the historical period. In the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, by the end of the 2071–2100 period, the flows of the Upper Mula stream and the ephemeral Algeciras stream will have decreased by between 46.3% and 52.4% and between 46.6% and 55.8%, respectively. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; SWAT model; EURO-CORDEX; bias correction methods; Segura basin; ephemeral streams climate change; SWAT model; EURO-CORDEX; bias correction methods; Segura basin; ephemeral streams
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MDPI and ACS Style

Martínez-Salvador, A.; Millares, A.; Eekhout, J.P.C.; Conesa-García, C. Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model. Sustainability 2021, 13, 7120. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137120

AMA Style

Martínez-Salvador A, Millares A, Eekhout JPC, Conesa-García C. Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model. Sustainability. 2021; 13(13):7120. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137120

Chicago/Turabian Style

Martínez-Salvador, Alberto, Agustín Millares, Joris P.C. Eekhout, and Carmelo Conesa-García. 2021. "Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model" Sustainability 13, no. 13: 7120. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137120

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