Analysis and Measurement of Carbon Emission Aggregation and Spillover Effects in China: Based on a Sectoral Perspective

Faced with the environmental pressure of global warming, China has achieved certain results in emission reduction, but this needs to be completed more efficiently. Therefore, this article conducts a more comprehensive and in-depth study of China’s carbon emissions from the perspective of the development of national economic sectors and taps the potential for emission reduction in various sectors. Taking into account the adjustment of the national economic sector and the current status of carbon emissions, the study period was from 2003 to 2017. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method was used to measure and analyze the impact of seven factors, including urban construction conditions, on the carbon emissions of various sectors. According to the commonalities and differences of the impacts, 42 sectors were aggregated into four categories. At the same time, the input–output structure decomposition analysis (IO–SDA) model was used to analyze the spillover effects of intersectoral carbon emissions. According to the research results, based on the characteristics of the four types of sectors, and fully considering the spillover effects, the improvement of life cycle management to control energy consumption in the entire supply chain was taken as the leading idea. Moreover, combined with the actual development situation, four types of sectoral carbon emission reduction paths and optimization strategies are proposed to establish a more sustainable demand structure in order to achieve emission reduction.