Next Article in Journal
The Tourism Sector and U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Stability: A Network Approach
Next Article in Special Issue
Towards a Visual Typology of Sustainability and Sustainable Development
Previous Article in Journal
Feasibility of Stochastic Models for Evaluation of Potential Factors for Safety: A Case Study in Southern Italy
Previous Article in Special Issue
Geoethics for Nudging Human Practices in Times of Pandemics
Review

Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications

1
Department of Life Sciences, University of Alcala, Edificio de Ciencias, 28805 Alcalá de Henares (Madrid), Spain
2
New Water Culture Foundation, Pedro Cerbuna 12, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain
3
School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, 1936 Harbortown Drive, Fort Pierce, FL 34946, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2020, 12(18), 7542; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12187542
Received: 11 August 2020 / Revised: 3 September 2020 / Accepted: 11 September 2020 / Published: 13 September 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Socio-Ecological Systems Sustainability)
Scenario analysis is a useful tool to facilitate discussions about the main trends of future change and to promote the understanding of global environmental changes implications on relevant aspects of sustainability. In this paper, we reviewed 294 articles published between 1995–2019, to evaluate the state of the art use of models and scenarios to investigate the effects of land use change and climate change on natural and social-ecological systems. Our review focuses on three issues. The first explores the extent to which the environmental dynamics of land use and climate change were jointly analyzed and the spatial scales associated with such integrated studies. The second explores the modelling methodologies and approaches used in the scenario analysis. The third explores the methods for developing or building scenarios. Results show that in most predictions there is little integration of key drivers of change. We find most forecasting studies use a sectoral modelling approach through dynamic spatially distributed models. Most articles do not apply a participatory approach in the development of scenarios. Based on this review, we conclude that there are some gaps in how scenario analysis on natural and social-ecological systems are conducted. These gaps pose a challenge for the use of models and scenarios as predictive tools in decision-making processes in the context of global change. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; land use change; models; scenarios; sustainability; watersheds climate change; land use change; models; scenarios; sustainability; watersheds
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Guaita García, N.; Martínez Fernández, J.; Fitz, C. Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications. Sustainability 2020, 12, 7542. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12187542

AMA Style

Guaita García N, Martínez Fernández J, Fitz C. Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications. Sustainability. 2020; 12(18):7542. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12187542

Chicago/Turabian Style

Guaita García, Noelia, Julia Martínez Fernández, and Carl Fitz. 2020. "Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications" Sustainability 12, no. 18: 7542. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12187542

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop