Assessing Resilience to Energy Poverty in Europe through a Multi-Criteria Analysis Framework
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Energy Poverty Status Quo
2.1. Climate, Demographics and Economy
2.2. Residential Building Stock and Energy Market
2.3. Energy Poverty, Energy Efficiency Policies and Obligation Schemes
3. The Methodological Approach
- Formulation of the decision matrix (alternatives/criteria):
- Calculation of the normalised decision matrix R:
- Calculation of the weighted normalised decision matrix P:
- Determination of the positive and negative ideal solutions:
- 5.
- Calculation of each alternative’s geometric distance from the ideal solutions (Step 4):
- 6.
- Calculation of the relative closeness to the ideal solution for each :
4. Model Implementation in Selected European Countries
4.1. Stakeholder Input
- Climate (quantitative): Reflects the impact of the climatic conditions in the problem of energy poverty and appears to be of medium importance according to the stakeholders’ perspectives. It is a quantitative criterion of cost nature, quantified in terms of average winter-summer temperatures. It is perceived that the more extreme temperatures that prevail in each of the implicated countries, the larger the number of people who suffer from energy poverty, since the heating and cooling needs of a household during the winter and summer periods, respectively, are expected to be significantly higher, compared to countries with more mild climates.
- Demographics (quantitative): Measures the impact of the current country-specific demographic conditions in the resilience against energy poverty. This criterion is narrowed down to tracking the population growth of each country deriving straight from migratory flows, and it is treated as being of low significance among the stakeholders, although without that negating its existence, especially if we reckon in the prevailing conditions at the European and global levels, regarding the immigration problem. It implies cost features, since the engaged stakeholders have shown excessive consensus in that the more the migrants that settle in a country, the stronger the aggravation of the problem, given the predominantly low-quality of life of migrants.
- Economy (quantitative): Given its close interconnection with energy poverty, this specific criterion and its sub-components are expected to play a key role in the attempt to provide an integrated framework for assessing the resilience of several EU countries against energy poverty. This criterion is interpreted as the complementarity between two indicators, unequally important, drawing from the captured stakeholder assessments: The highly significant progress of unemployment rate, where it is highlighted that energy poverty is far more obvious in countries with increased shares of unemployment (cost nature); and the less important purchasing power of the citizens, which constitutes an indirect income measure, with stakeholders converging to the conclusion that a household is less prone to energy poverty if its purchasing power is located above the national average (benefit nature).
- Policy (qualitative): The impact of policy-making processes on hindering the rapid spread of energy poverty across the EU is of a positive nature, and it is approached qualitatively through the level of political will that the governments, local authorities and all relevant stakeholders show in legislating policies and designing schemes to effectively address the problem and its side effects. Given that energy poverty is not within the first priorities of the elected governments, regardless of their place in the chain of command (local, regional, national), political will is considered a criterion of high importance, closely associated with the lack of long-term energy strategy for targeting the grassroots of the problem, as well as the bureaucratic complexity of the regulatory framework.
- Residential building stock (quantitative): This criterion is quantified and evaluated based on three discrete metrics, all of which are linked to cost features: average building age, persons per room and number of tenants. According to the stakeholders’ point of view, these metrics adequately represent the effect that the building stock has on energy poverty, with their significance in terms of influence on the problem spanning from extreme to low. It is noteworthy that building age seems to draw most of the attention, in that the greater the age of building, the more increased the chance of the shell failing to meet thermal standards, and thus sinking deep regarding its ability to maintain the thermal comfort of its holders.
- Energy market (quantitative): It is quantified in terms of electricity price and constitutes a criterion of negative nature as to its impact on energy poverty mitigation. It should be noted that high electricity prices do not necessarily lead to energy poverty, in the same way that low electricity prices do not constitute an effective way of dealing with the problem, since there are a multitude of parameters, including, among others, the age of building that should be examined jointly with electricity price trends in order to draw useful insights. However, high electricity price is a form of underlying energy poverty, in that increased fuel costs may provoke decreased energy consumption and thus a lack of thermal comfort for a household’s holders, and thus it lies in the cluster of high-importance criteria.
- Obligation schemes (qualitative): The EED binds EU member states to introducing energy EEOSs which impose a legal obligation on member states to achieve new savings each year of 1.5% of the annual energy sales to final customers by volume. Article 7 creates space for member states to decide whether to stick with the EEOs or introduce alternative policy measures, as long as these measures deliver equivalent energy savings. In this respect, this qualitative criterion reflects the impact of an obligation scheme under Article 7 in the problem of energy poverty and it is considered to be of low importance in terms of benefit. The concept of examining the existence of EEO(s) under Article 7 is based on the stakeholders’ broad consensus that an integrated design and development of a well-established scheme also motivates the enterprises of the private sector to engage, thus intensifying the efforts for developing the necessary tools to tackle energy poverty, while contributing to utilities serving their commitments.
- Legislation (qualitative): It is a qualitative criterion of benefit nature, focused on tracking down the existence of an official energy poverty definition among the examined countries. The establishment of a context-specific energy poverty definition does not straightforwardly imply lower levels of impact affection; however, it demonstrates a clear and coordinated attempt for a country to identify the problem and better target the ones affected, thus it is treated as extremely important. This statement appeared to gather much popularity among the stakeholders and, based on that reflection, the respective criterion is incorporated into the whole analysis.
4.2. Multi-Criteria Analysis Results
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
EC | European Commission |
EU | European Union |
EED | Energy efficiency directive |
EEOS | Energy efficiency obligation schemes |
EPOV | EU Energy Poverty Observatory |
GDP | Gross domestic product |
GHG | Greenhouse gas |
IEA | International Energy Agency |
MCDA | Multi-criteria decision analysis |
NDM | New decision matrix |
NECP | National energy and climate plan |
TOPSIS | Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution |
WNDM | Weighted new decision matrix |
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Data | Average Temperature (°C) | Population Growth (Per 1000 Persons) | Unemployment (%) | Purchasing Power (€/capita) | Political Will | Building Age (% Built <1980) | Adoption of Article 7 | Official Definition |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Austria | 6.35 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 38,600 | Absent | 60.2 | High | No |
Belgium | 9.55 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 35,100 | Moderate | 75.3 | Low | No |
Croatia | 10.90 | −7.1 | 6.6 | 19,100 | Intense | 63.0 | High | No |
France | 10.70 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 31,500 | Low | 57.8 | High | Yes |
Greece | 15.40 | −1.8 | 16.7 | 20,600 | Low | 55.4 | Moderate | No |
Ireland | 9.30 | 15.2 | 4.8 | 56,800 | High | 45.0 | Moderate | Yes |
Italy | 13.45 | −2.1 | 9.7 | 28,900 | Moderate | 72.0 | Moderate | No |
Latvia | 5.60 | −7.5 | 6.1 | 21,300 | Moderate | 69.3 | Moderate | No |
Netherlands | 9.25 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 39,100 | Low | 60.8 | Low | No |
Romania | 8.80 | −6.6 | 4 | 19,600 | Low | 70.3 | Low | No |
Spain | 13.30 | 5.9 | 14.2 | 27,700 | Moderate | 43.0 | Moderate | Yes |
Evaluation Criteria | Weights | ||
---|---|---|---|
Climate | C1 | Average temperatures (winter-summer) | 2 |
Demographics | C2 | Population growth | 1 |
Economy | C3 | Unemployment | 4 |
C4 | Purchasing power | 2 | |
Policy | C5 | Political will | 3 |
Residential building stock | C6 | Average building age | 4 |
C7 | Persons per room | 1 | |
C8 | Number of tenants | 2 | |
Energy market | C9 | Electricity price | 3 |
Obligation schemes | C10 | Adoption of Article 7 | 1 |
Legislation | C11 | Official definition | 4 |
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Arsenopoulos, A.; Marinakis, V.; Koasidis, K.; Stavrakaki, A.; Psarras, J. Assessing Resilience to Energy Poverty in Europe through a Multi-Criteria Analysis Framework. Sustainability 2020, 12, 4899. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12124899
Arsenopoulos A, Marinakis V, Koasidis K, Stavrakaki A, Psarras J. Assessing Resilience to Energy Poverty in Europe through a Multi-Criteria Analysis Framework. Sustainability. 2020; 12(12):4899. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12124899
Chicago/Turabian StyleArsenopoulos, Apostolos, Vangelis Marinakis, Konstantinos Koasidis, Andriana Stavrakaki, and John Psarras. 2020. "Assessing Resilience to Energy Poverty in Europe through a Multi-Criteria Analysis Framework" Sustainability 12, no. 12: 4899. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12124899