National Green GDP Assessment and Prediction for China Based on a CA-Markov Land Use Simulation Model
1
College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
2
School of Economics and Management, Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China
3
Tourism College, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410006, China
4
Laboratory of urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Land and Resources, Shenzhen 518000, China
5
Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117570, Singapore
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2019, 11(3), 576; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030576
Received: 13 December 2018 / Revised: 17 January 2019 / Accepted: 18 January 2019 / Published: 22 January 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Use of Soils and Water: the Role of Environmental Land Use Conflicts)
Green Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an important indicator to reflect the trade-off between the ecosystem and economic system. Substantial research has mapped historical green GDP spatially. But few studies have concerned future variations of green GDP. In this study, we have calculated and mapped the spatial distribution of the green GDP by summing the ecosystem service value (ESV) and GDP for China from 1990 to 2015. The pattern of land use change simulated by a CA-Markov model was used in the process of ESV prediction (with an average accuracy of 86%). On the other hand, based on the increasing trend of GDP during the period of 1990 to 2015, a regression model was built up to present time-series increases in GDP at prefecture-level cities, having an average value of R square (R2) of approximately 0.85 and significance level less than 0.05. The results indicated that (1) from 1990 to 2015, green GDP was increased, with a huge growth rate of 78%. Specifically, the ESV value was decreased slightly, while the GDP value was increased substantially. (2) Forecasted green GDP would increase by 194,978.29 billion yuan in 2050. Specifically, the future ESV will decline, while the rapidly increased GDP leads to the final increase in future green GDP. (3) According to our results, the spatial differences in green GDP for regions became more significant from 1990 to 2050.
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Keywords:
Green GDP; Ecosystem service value; Gross Domestic Product; Land Use; CA-Markov
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MDPI and ACS Style
Yu, Y.; Yu, M.; Lin, L.; Chen, J.; Li, D.; Zhang, W.; Cao, K. National Green GDP Assessment and Prediction for China Based on a CA-Markov Land Use Simulation Model. Sustainability 2019, 11, 576. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030576
AMA Style
Yu Y, Yu M, Lin L, Chen J, Li D, Zhang W, Cao K. National Green GDP Assessment and Prediction for China Based on a CA-Markov Land Use Simulation Model. Sustainability. 2019; 11(3):576. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030576
Chicago/Turabian StyleYu, Yuhan; Yu, Mengmeng; Lin, Lu; Chen, Jiaxin; Li, Dongjie; Zhang, Wenting; Cao, Kai. 2019. "National Green GDP Assessment and Prediction for China Based on a CA-Markov Land Use Simulation Model" Sustainability 11, no. 3: 576. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030576
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