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Open AccessArticle

A Quantitative Analysis of Socio-Economic Determinants Influencing Crop Drought Vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

1
Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland
2
Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
3
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, 4056 Basel, Switzerland
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2019, 11(21), 6135; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11216135
Received: 4 September 2019 / Revised: 15 October 2019 / Accepted: 31 October 2019 / Published: 3 November 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Global Warming, Environmental Governance and Sustainability Issues)
Drought events have significant impacts on agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), as agricultural production in most of the countries relies on precipitation. Socio-economic factors have a tremendous influence on whether a farmer or a nation can adapt to these climate stressors. This study aims to examine the extent to which these factors affect maize vulnerability to drought in SSA. To differentiate sensitive regions from resilient ones, we defined a crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI) calculated by comparing recorded yield with expected yield simulated by the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model during 1990–2012. We then assessed the relationship between CDVI and potential socio-economic variables using regression techniques and identified the influencing variables. The results show that the level of fertilizer use is a highly influential factor on vulnerability. Additionally, countries with higher food production index and better infrastructure are more resilient to drought. The role of the government effectiveness variable was less apparent across the SSA countries due to being generally stationary. Improving adaptations to drought through investing in infrastructure, improving fertilizer distribution, and fostering economic development would contribute to drought resilience. View Full-Text
Keywords: Crop model; EPIC; regression techniques; drought adaptation Crop model; EPIC; regression techniques; drought adaptation
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kamali, B.; Abbaspour, K.C.; Wehrli, B.; Yang, H. A Quantitative Analysis of Socio-Economic Determinants Influencing Crop Drought Vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sustainability 2019, 11, 6135. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11216135

AMA Style

Kamali B, Abbaspour KC, Wehrli B, Yang H. A Quantitative Analysis of Socio-Economic Determinants Influencing Crop Drought Vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sustainability. 2019; 11(21):6135. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11216135

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kamali, Bahareh; Abbaspour, Karim C.; Wehrli, Bernhard; Yang, Hong. 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Socio-Economic Determinants Influencing Crop Drought Vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa" Sustainability 11, no. 21: 6135. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11216135

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