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Open AccessArticle

Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin

1
Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.4888, Shengbei Street, Changchun 130102, China
2
School of Renewable Natural Resources, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
3
Institute of Hydraulic and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, No.74, Xuefu Road, Harbin 150080, China
4
Institute of Meteorology in Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150080, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2019, 11(20), 5619; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205619
Received: 22 August 2019 / Revised: 21 September 2019 / Accepted: 11 October 2019 / Published: 12 October 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources and Green Growth)
Global water resources are affected by climate change as never before. However, it is still unclear how water resources in high latitudes respond to climate change. In this study, the water resource data for 2021–2050 in the Naoli River Basin, a high-latitude basin in China, are calculated by using the SWAT-Modflow Model and future climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show a decreasing trend. When compared to the present, future streamflow is predicted to decrease by 2.73 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and by 1.51 × 108 m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 8.16 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and by 0.56 × 108 m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, groundwater recharge is expected to decrease by −1.79 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and −0.75 × 108 m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP 4.5 scenario, and by −0.62 × 108 m3 in 2021–2035 and −0.12 × 108m3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. The worst impact of climate change on water resources in the basin could be frequent occurrences of extremely wet and dry conditions. In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the largest annual streamflow is predicted to be almost 14 times that of the smallest one, while it is 18 times for the groundwater recharge. Meanwhile, in the RCP 8.5 scenario, inter-annual fluctuations are expected to be more severe. The difference is 17 times between the largest annual streamflow and the lowest annual one. Moreover, the value is 19 times between the largest and lowest groundwater recharge. This indicates a significant increase in conflict between water use and supply. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; groundwater-surface water; high-latitude; SWAT-Modflow climate change; groundwater-surface water; high-latitude; SWAT-Modflow
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MDPI and ACS Style

Qi, P.; Zhang, G.; Xu, Y.J.; Xia, Z.; Wang, M. Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin. Sustainability 2019, 11, 5619.

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