Low-Carbon Quick Wins: Integrating Short-Term Sustainable Transport Options in Climate Policy in Low-Income Countries
- What are the most suitable low-carbon transport QWs for LICs?
- Which QWs are priorities for stakeholders in LICs?
- What is the current status of implementation of QWs?
- To what extent are QWs integrated in national climate change strategies?
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Country Selection Criteria
2.2. Low-Carbon Transport Quick Wins Definition
2.3. Selection of Transport Quick Wins for LICs
- Sustainable development benefits, such as air quality and improved accessibility;
- Applicability in DFID priority countries that reflect policy needs of the local transport system context;
- Climate change mitigation potential; and
- Passenger and freight including avoid-shift-improve options.
- Accelerate phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies;
- Formulate Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs) in primary and secondary cities, supported by a National Urban Mobility Policy or programme;
- Promote electric two- and three wheelers, including e-vehicle sharing systems in primary and secondary cities as well as rural areas, for both passenger mobility as well as last-mile urban freight;
- Limit import of inefficient and polluting secondhand trucks;
- Implement (ultra-) low emission zones, including car-free zones in city centres;
- Introduce and scale up pricing for car-related travel options (e.g., congestion/road charging, parking pricing, workplace parking levy) in primary and secondary cities;
- Tighten fuel economy standards for passenger cars, coupled with labelling schemes and fiscal incentives such as carbon dioxide (CO2) based vehicle taxation;
- Provide and improve walking and cycling infrastructure (e.g., connected walking paths, protected cycle lanes, safe intersections), reallocating road space where necessary;
- Improve freight efficiency (e.g., reduce empty load running by freight trucks) through route optimisation, asset sharing between companies, and increased use of information and communication technology (ICT) solutions;
- Accelerate deployment of tighter diesel fuel quality standards to reduce emissions of black carbon (BC) and other short-lived climate pollutants.
2.4. Method for Quick Wins Assessment
3. Results and Analysis Part 1: A Top-Down Climate Change Perspective on Transport Quick Wins
3.1. Mitigation Potential of Quick Wins
3.2. Mitigation Potential of Quick Wins
3.3. Integration of Quick Wins in Climate Change Strategies
4. Results and Analysis Part 2: A Bottom-Up Transport Perspective on Quick Wins for Focus Countries
4.1. Perceived Feasibility of Quick Wins for Focus Countries
- QW 2 Formulate Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs) in primary and secondary cities, supported by a National Urban Mobility Policy or programme.
- QW 8 Provide and improve walking and cycling infrastructure (e.g., connected walking paths, protected bicycle lanes), reallocating road space where necessary.
- QW 3 Limit imports of inefficient and polluting secondhand trucks, complemented by age limitations for the existing fleet.
- QW 4 Promote electric two- and three-wheelers (including shared e-vehicles) in primary and secondary cities.
- QW 1 Accelerate phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies.
4.2. Implementation Progress of QWs
- 0 No implementation or discussion of the options in the policy domain
- * Measure in discussion or pilot implementation
- ** Policy partial in place or planned, or partial implementation
- *** Full-scale implementation
- QW 1 (Fossil fuel subsidy reduction): this is a politically challenging option, where public opposition to policy changes can be expected ;
- QW 2 (SUMPs and NUMP): India and South Africa have a nationally-guided programme for cities, while in other countries only a few cities develop SUMP-like mobility plans. Awareness of SUMPs and NUMPs as a key policy tool is picking up in recent years. NUMPs are challenging especially because the national government is often reluctant to allocate financial resources to cities, with the local governments in turn not seeing the benefit of planning guidelines from a higher-level authority;
- QW 3 (Promoting electric two and three wheelers): two-wheelers are not popular with policymakers , who see motorcycle drivers as reckless and often involved in traffic crashes, rather than a flexible, fast and space and energy-efficient mode of transport. However, electrification is increasingly acknowledged as part of air quality and energy security strategies;
- QW7 (Fuel economy policies) with for example India adopting relatively ambitious standards. Although fuel economy policies are beneficial to the national economy, implementing these could be politically challenging due to potential impacts on the car market and manufacturers;
- QW 8 (NMT infrastructure): many cities are examining this option and consider it important, yet implementation is limited, with unsafe and inconvenient conditions for walking and cycling. Allocation of government budget to the various transport modes is a key issue, with for example the political economy in Ghana favouring road investments over NMT and rail .
- Freight efficiency measures appear to be less prioritised in literature, climate strategies, policy implementation and by stakeholders.
- Fuel efficiency policies are acknowledged as key in literature, but lack in implementation and priority by stakeholders.
- SUMPs and NUMPs, as well as NMT infrastructure, are seen as a key option but implementation is lagging behind.
- Attention by stakeholders and literature coverage for electric two- and three-wheelers is increasing, especially in recent years in Asian and African countries.
- Improving diesel quality standards is considered important in literature and by stakeholders from a local air pollution and health perspective, with substantial co-benefits due to the climate warming potential of black carbon.
- Little attention is given to LEZs in the climate change context, even though these may play a key role in promoting electric vehicles .
5.1. Interpretation of Results and Limitations of Data and Method
5.2. Climate Change Strategy Development Process and Quick Wins
5.3. Broader Context of Long-Term Decarbonisation
Conflicts of Interest
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|Quick Win||Key Points from Mitigation Potential Literature (Global)||Mitigation Literature Country-Specific|
|Removal of fossil fuel consumption subsidies could lead to global GHG emission reductions of 2–4% by 2020, rising to 8–12% by 2050 . Removal of fossil fuel subsidies is a prerequisite to carbon taxation, which is required to achieve a beyond 2-degree scenario .||For India and Indonesia, fuel subsidy reform could lead to between 1 and 9% GHG savings in 2030 . For Ghana, removal of subsidies could result in negative impact on household welfare . Phasing out energy subsidies could reduce Indonesian CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by 11–13% in 2020 |
|Urban passenger transport emits about 25% of total transport sector emissions. SUMPs mainly focus on non-technology options, i.e., ‘avoid’ and ‘shift’, which contribute 2–40% of emission reductions in the 2050 low-carbon scenario . Implementation of a SUMP in Burgos (Spain) resulted in 17% lower CO2 emissions . Pisoni et al. model impact of SUMPs on air quality .||For the 1.5-degree scenario in India, demand-side urban transport measures are essential , and CO2 emissions is one of the key indicators in comprehensive mobility plans in India . Urban transport measures in 7 Indonesian cities, supported by a national urban transport framework, can save 0.1–0.2 tCO2 per capita in 2030 |
|Over 80% of the 29 Mt CO2 savings in 2017 by all types of EVs globally are due to e-bikes in China . Full decarbonisation of two- and three-wheelers is necessary for the beyond 2 degrees scenario . For Vietnam, e-bikes are the mitigation option with the second-largest potential in the transport sector . In Thailand, deploying electric motorcycles could reduce two-wheeler life cycle CO2-eq emissions by 42–46% .||For a 2-degree scenario in India, over 90% of two-wheelers should be electric ; however, energy-use of two- and three-wheelers varies depending on driving conditions . There are cost and CO2 emission savings for electric tricycles in Nigeria . A study shows benefits of electric two-wheelers for Africa (no CO2 estimates)  Benefits are shown for ojek (motorcycle taxi) drivers by switching to electric vehicles in Indonesia . There is a rapidly expanding market in Africa for motorcycles and boda boda (motorcycle taxis) in particular .|
|Import restrictions for secondhand vehicles as a key part of the policy package in a global low-sulphur scenario . Fuel efficiency of vehicles declines rapidly after 15 years of use, up to 50% by 25 years .||Import policies are considered in the fuel efficiency scenario in a green freight study for Bangladesh . A low-carbon scenario for Kigali (Rwanda) considers vehicle age restrictions .|
|Impact assessments show some impact of environmental zones in EU cities on the impact on PM/soot emissions . Further climate benefits would accrue from more EV deployment; however, no study has been found estimating the GHG impact.||No sources found.|
|There is a relatively strong knowledge base of ex-post and ex-ante studies on road pricing and parking management [41,42]. In Singapore, a package of measures including congestion charging and CO2-based vehicle taxation results in low transport emissions per capita .||Study on congestion pricing in Delhi shows significant shift from private vehicles to public transport .|
|Regulation on the energy-use and lifecycle GHG emissions of vehicles is necessary for a beyond 2 degrees scenario  and progress is seen in many countries . The IPCC presents emission intensity reduction potentials for different types of diesel and petrol vehicles .||Progress in fuel economy policies in major markets, including India, Indonesia and South Africa is reviewed . Fuel efficiency strategies are included in low-carbon transport scenario for India .|
|Globally, it is estimated that in 2050, 22% of urban passenger travel can be by (e)bike, compared to 6% in the base case. This results in 300 MtCO2 reductions in 2050 and USD 1 trillion in savings from vehicle purchase and operation and construction and maintenance of infrastructure . For walking, no specific mitigation potential estimates have been found; however, it is acknowledged for its key role in mitigation  and reaching public transport modal shift targets.||Sustainable urban transport scenario for Bangalore includes NMT and transit-oriented development (TOD) and CO2 estimates . Low-carbon scenario for Kigali (Rwanda) quantifies CO2 savings from bike lane investments . In Ghana, three out of four would not cycle to social events for public image; health is driver . Research on walking and cycling in African cities, including in Kenya and South-Africa .|
|The IEA  analyses 15 measures, e.g., urban consolidation centres, platooning, co-modality, backhauling, retiming of deliveries, etc. Most of these could have a best-case impact of up to about 5% emission reductions, while some measures may have a reduction potential over 10%. Implementation of these measures, including in developed countries, is still in an early stage.||A study CO2 scenario with freight efficiency for Bangladesh . A report highlights many measures (no mitigation potential calculation) and note that logistics is 7% of India’s total CO2 emissions and 67% of transport PM . Green freight programme for Northern Corridor (including Rwanda, Kenya) with measures, in context of mitigation and air pollution (objective of 10% reduction in CO2 per ton-km) .|
|A mitigation scenario for black carbon (BC) reduces such emissions by about half, corresponding to about 4 GtCO2-eq (GWP100) in 2050 . Diesel road vehicles and ships are one of the main sources of BC emissions with 19% of global BC emissions . Research shows that a global sulphur scenario reduces BC emission from diesel road transport by about 90% from the baseline in 2040 . Such strategies will result substantial health benefits from reduced exposure to air pollution.||Report includes country level market analysis for low-sulphur diesel for Bangladesh, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, and Uganda . Diesel vehicles contribute 20–55% of total BC in South Asian cities .|
|Reports Analysed||NDC, NC2 (2012)||NDC, BUR2, NC3, CC policy||NDC, NC2, BUR1, LCS||NDC, NC3, BUR||NDC, NC, CCAP 2013||NDC, NC2, BUR1||NDC, NC2, LDCS 2011||NDC, NC3, BUR2||NDC, NC2, NCCP 2015|
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Bakker, S.; Haq, G.; Peet, K.; Gota, S.; Medimorec, N.; Yiu, A.; Jennings, G.; Rogers, J. Low-Carbon Quick Wins: Integrating Short-Term Sustainable Transport Options in Climate Policy in Low-Income Countries. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4369. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11164369
Bakker S, Haq G, Peet K, Gota S, Medimorec N, Yiu A, Jennings G, Rogers J. Low-Carbon Quick Wins: Integrating Short-Term Sustainable Transport Options in Climate Policy in Low-Income Countries. Sustainability. 2019; 11(16):4369. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11164369Chicago/Turabian Style
Bakker, Stefan, Gary Haq, Karl Peet, Sudhir Gota, Nikola Medimorec, Alice Yiu, Gail Jennings, and John Rogers. 2019. "Low-Carbon Quick Wins: Integrating Short-Term Sustainable Transport Options in Climate Policy in Low-Income Countries" Sustainability 11, no. 16: 4369. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11164369