Spatio-Temporal Pattern Change of Winter Wheat Production and Its Implications in the North China Plain
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Sites
2.2. Data Source
2.3. Barycenter Model
2.4. Change Rate Estimation Method
2.5. Contribution Rate Decomposition model
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Pattern Changes of Total Production
3.1.1. Barycenter Shift
3.1.2. Trend Analysis
3.2. Contribution Rates to Total production by Yield and Sown Area
3.2.1. Change Trends of Yield and Sown Area
3.2.2. Contribution of yield and sown area to total production
3.3. External Causal Factors Analysis
3.3.1. Input Factors
3.3.2. Wheat Production Benefit
3.3.3. Agricultural Irrigation Policies
3.4. Implications
4. Conclusions
- (1)
- Contrary to the northward shift of grain production in the entire China, the barycenter of winter wheat production in the NCP moved southwards by 115.16 km from 1998 to 2015, with an average speed of 6.77 km/year. The southward speed was more than 10 km/year during 1998–2002, and then slowed down to 1.99 km/year during 2012–2015.
- (2)
- Total wheat production in the entire NCP showed phased changes during the study period: it was decreased or stagnated during 1998–2003, and then significantly increased from 52.36 to 86.22 Mt since 2004. Most counties (85.6%) showed a similar trend. A total of 87 counties mainly distributed in the southern NCP showed a significant increase trend in wheat production, while 38 counties mainly distributed in the northern NCP a decrease trend.
- (3)
- Of the total wheat production increase in the NCP, 64.5% and 35.5% were contributed by yield increase and sowing area expansion, and the contribution of yield increase was enlarged greatly since 2003. In general, the total production increase of winter wheat was mainly contributed by yield increase in the southern counties, while the decrease of total production in the north was mainly due to the reduction of sown area.
- (4)
- The change of winter wheat production pattern jointly resulted from spatial changes of input factors, net returns, water prices, and benefit. Water pressure in the northern NCP was alleviated to some extent, with the southward shift of wheat production.
- (5)
- The north part of NCP is densely populated. To meet the water requirement, it must improve the water use efficiency by adopting more strict water management policies and water saving technologies. In addition, to promote the further southward shift of wheat production could be a good option to reduce the agricultural use of limited water resources, while still maintain a sustainable production of wheat.
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Data Information | Provincial Yearbook | City/ Municipality Yearbook |
---|---|---|
Total production, sown area, yield, irrigated area, fertilizer application, and total agricultural machinery power | Hebei rural statistical yearbook, Henan statistical yearbook, Anhui statistical yearbook, Jiangsu statistical yearbook | Beijing, Tianjin, Binzhou, Dezhou, Heze, Liaocheng, Linyi, Taian, Jining, Jinan, Weifang, Dongying, Zaozhaung, Zibo, Shijiazhuang, Baoding, Hengshui, Langfang, Cangzhou, Tangshan, Xingtai, Qinhuangdao, Langfang, Lianyungang, Suqian, Xuzhou, Yancheng, and Huaian |
Periods | 1998–2002 | 2003–2007 | 2008–2011 | 2012–2015 | 1998–2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Distance (km) | 42.84 | 51.59 | 12.78 | 7.95 | 115.16 |
Speed (km/year) | 10.70 | 10.32 | 3.20 | 1.99 | 6.77 |
Orientation | Southwest | Southeast | Northeast | Southeast | Southeast |
Items | Hebei | Beijing | Tianjin | Shandong | Henan | Jiangsu | Anhui |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SLOPE (%/year) | −0.448 | −0.066 | −0.027 | 0.078 | −0.007 | 0.133 | 0.338 |
R2 | 0.857 | 0.610 | 0.566 | 0.146 | 0.005 | 0.660 | 0.790 |
Sig. | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** |
Year | Irrigated Area | Agricultural Mechanical Power | Fertilizer Application | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Longitude (Degree) | Latitude (Degree) | Longitude (Degree) | Latitude (Degree) | Longitude (Degree) | Latitude (Degree) | |
1998 | 116.86 | 35.33 | 116.61 | 35.96 | 116.88 | 35.02 |
2002 | 116.80 | 35.29 | 116.62 | 35.86 | 116.75 | 34.97 |
2006 | 116.78 | 35.27 | 116.55 | 35.79 | 116.68 | 35.00 |
2010 | 116.76 | 35.24 | 116.54 | 35.69 | 116.51 | 34.93 |
2015 | 116.78 | 35.05 | 116.57 | 35.58 | 116.40 | 34.90 |
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Zhang, Z.; Lu, C. Spatio-Temporal Pattern Change of Winter Wheat Production and Its Implications in the North China Plain. Sustainability 2019, 11, 3028. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11113028
Zhang Z, Lu C. Spatio-Temporal Pattern Change of Winter Wheat Production and Its Implications in the North China Plain. Sustainability. 2019; 11(11):3028. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11113028
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Zemin, and Changhe Lu. 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Pattern Change of Winter Wheat Production and Its Implications in the North China Plain" Sustainability 11, no. 11: 3028. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11113028