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Quantitative Assessment of Regional Debris-Flow Risk: A Case Study in Southwest China

School of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou 341000, China
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101, China
School of Resources and Environmental Science and Engineering, Hubei University of Science and Technology, Xianning 437100, China
School of Education Science, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou 341000, China
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2018, 10(7), 2223;
Received: 26 March 2018 / Revised: 15 June 2018 / Accepted: 15 June 2018 / Published: 28 June 2018
PDF [3418 KB, uploaded 3 July 2018]


This paper uses a comprehensive risk assessment method to investigate the population risk of debris flows in Southwest China. The methodology integrates models from hazard, vulnerability literature and some empirical equations. The main steps include debris-flow disaster-hazard zoning, estimation of the frequency of the disaster, factor identification of population vulnerability, and calculation of the fragility rate. The results demonstrate that the most hazardous regions in Southwest China are primarily observed in the mountains around the Sichuan Basin, the border area between Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, the eastern and southern regions of Yunnan Province, and the eastern area of Guizhou Province. The extremely high vulnerability zones are characterized by a fragility rate of 3.89 persons per 10,000 people. The comprehensive risk gradually increases from the southeast of the study area to the central region, reaching its highest value (more than 100 persons/year) on the Jiangyou–Zhaotong–Baoshan Line and decreasing thereafter to its lowest in the northwestern region. Extremely large-scale disasters are the major factor of casualties. Appropriate risk management and mitigation solutions should be comprehensively determined based on the combination of debris-hazard levels and fragility rates in the hazardous regions. View Full-Text
Keywords: debris flows; fragility rate; risk; similarity-based method; Southwest China debris flows; fragility rate; risk; similarity-based method; Southwest China

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Liu, G.; Dai, E.; Xu, X.; Wu, W.; Xiang, A. Quantitative Assessment of Regional Debris-Flow Risk: A Case Study in Southwest China. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2223.

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