1. Introduction
Like many other developing countries, agriculture in Pakistan is the second largest sector after service sector by contributing 19.5 percent to GDP and employs around 42 percent of the total labor force [
1]. Agriculture is important for ensuring food security and reducing poverty. Low performance of this sector in Pakistan may be attributed to various factors such as high population growth, food insecurity, conventional agricultural management practices, slow rate of technological innovation, limited adoption of progressive farming techniques [
2], water scarcity, rapid urbanization, dominance of small land holdings [
3] and climate change induced impacts, i.e., rising temperatures, droughts, floods and uneven pattern of rainfall [
1,
4,
5,
6]. It is well documented that groundwater is under rapid depletion in Pakistan like other countries [
7,
8,
9]. According to an estimate, annual total irrigated water use is about 151 Km
3/year, which is more than 95 percent of the total withdrawal in Pakistan [
10]. Water scarcity in the country is increasing and the regular occurrence of drought is posing a threat to the agricultural economy specifically. The main reasons of water scarcity in the country are silting of major reservoirs, high population growth, poor irrigation management, climate change phenomenon and lack of consensus among the provinces on the construction of new dams [
10,
11].
Agriculture sector in Pakistan is climate-sensitive and highly vulnerable to increasing weather variability and climate change and thereby, have become major barriers to achieving food security and alleviating poverty in Pakistan [
12]. Several studies indicated that production of major crops in Pakistan could be significantly impacted due to receiving less rainfall, increase in temperature across the country by 0.5 °C in the past three decades [
3] and variations in frequency and intensity of droughts and floods over the period of 1995–2017 [
3,
5,
6]. Similarly, projections indicate that mean increase of temperature in Pakistan is higher than the expected global average (1.4 °C–3.7 °C).
Majority of the farmers in Pakistan are still practicing conventional agriculture [
13,
14,
15]. Additionally, they are producing cotton using conventional agricultural management practices (applying high dose of fertilizers, pesticides and water etc.). Consequently, the conventional cotton farmers have higher cost of production and low resource use efficiency [
13,
14,
16]. This study used data of conventional cotton growers to refer the cotton production, using intensive amount of external inputs.
In Pakistan, cotton is the most important and the second largest cash crop in terms of area after wheat, contributing one percent in the total GDP and 6.5 percent in the agricultural value addition. It is an important source of foreign exchange and main source of raw material to textile sector [
1]. Although Pakistan is the world’s fourth largest producer of cotton, yet this crop is climate-sensitive and suffered multiple shocks over the time due to conventional agricultural management practices, climate change, and market failures. Cotton crop is badly affected by climate change in Pakistan due to excessive irrigation water use along with intensive pesticide and fertilizer application [
1,
13,
17]. Most of the researchers found that production of cotton in Pakistan is negatively affected by climate change [
13,
18,
19,
20] and inefficient cotton production management practices [
13,
14,
15,
16]. The increased vulnerability of cotton crop to insect and pest attacks, declining crop yields, excessive use of groundwater, deterioration of natural resources and human health due to chemical based conventional agriculture have raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of the system [
13,
14,
15,
18,
21].
Because of social, environmental and economic problems arising from climate change and conventional agriculture, FAO has prompted a sustainable agricultural production system i.e., Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) an alternative to conventional agriculture. CSA improves the efficiency of natural resources, increased resilience and productivity of agriculture, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions [
22]. The technology or practice that helps to increase productivity and farm income, improves water and nutrient use efficiency, resilience to climate change, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions is called CSA [
22,
23,
24,
25,
26,
27,
28]. The adverse effect of variability in climatic conditions on agriculture can be reduced substantially by adopting CSA practices and technologies individually or in combination [
3,
12,
23,
24]. Therefore, the adoption of CSA in cotton production can improve yield, enhance resource use efficiency and farm income as well as minimize the adverse effects of climate change on its production.
Empirical studies from developed and developing countries like India have shown that simple adaptation of CSA can increase agricultural productivity and farm income. This implies that changes in cropping pattern, planting dates, adoption of new agricultural and water saving technologies have significant impact on agricultural productivity and farm income [
16,
23,
24,
29,
30,
31,
32]. Similarly, many empirical studies from developed and developing countries shows that applications of CSA practices and technologies increased crop yield, resource use efficiency, net farm income, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions [
24,
33,
34,
35,
36,
37,
38,
39,
40,
41]. Additionally, a few studies from Pakistan found that implementation of new agricultural practices and technologies, and adaptation to climate change significantly influencing the agricultural productivity, farm income and resource use efficiency [
12,
15,
16,
32,
42,
43,
44]. Similarly, many researchers [
10,
45,
46,
47] also found that groundwater quality varies across the farms and regions and have significant impact on agricultural productivity, farm income and livelihood of rural households in Pakistan. Water-smart, energy-smart, carbon-smart and knowledge-smart CSA practices and technologies are now being adopted by farmers in Pakistan [
3].
The agricultural practices and technologies are considered as climate-smart that can help to achieve at least one pillar of CSA. Three basic pillars of CSA are increased productivity, resilience to climate change and reduced greenhouse gas emission. The cultivation of cotton in Pakistan suffered multiple shocks i.e., market failures, climate change and poor agricultural management practices resulting substantial decrease in crop production [
1]. It has been observed that implementation of CSA significantly minimized the adverse effects of climatic stresses, increase crop productivity, farm income and cropped area.
The rate of adoption of CSA practices and technologies is significantly influenced by economic benefits, socio-economic characteristics, operational land holding, groundwater quality and scarcity, type of ownership, credit access and extension services [
5,
6,
12,
16,
23,
24,
32,
42,
44]. The goal of this study is to estimate the impact of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) through sustainable irrigation management on cotton production and livelihood of farmers in Punjab, Pakistan. There exist few studies on the implementation of new agricultural practices and technologies, and adaptation to climate change in Pakistan [
12,
15,
16,
24,
32,
42,
43,
44]. Nevertheless, those studies focus on any new technology and practice with an objective to estimate the benefits and costs of adoption of that technology. This study is, to the best of knowledge, the first quantitative research to estimate the impact of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) through sustainable irrigation management on cotton production and livelihood of farmers in Punjab, Pakistan as well as provide some suggestions for policy makers for the promotion of CSA in Punjab and rest of the cotton growing area.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Information and Salient Features of the Study Area
This study is carried out in two irrigation divisions viz. Sahiwal and Khanewal in the command areas of LBDC irrigation system of Punjab, Pakistan (
Figure 1), which covers 0.8 million hectares (Mha) along Bari Doab and is the second largest irrigation system of Punjab [
48]. Punjab province is the major producer of cotton having 80 percent share in total production fallowed by Sindh [
1]. Rice-Wheat, Cotton-Wheat, Maize-Maize and Maize-Wheat are the major cropping systems of this irrigation system.
The study used a primary dataset, collected in 2017 using multi-stage sampling technique from 198 cotton farmers in the study area. In the second stage, one distributary/minor (5L and 2R/10R distributary was selected from Sahiwal and Khanewal irrigation division, respectively). In the third and the fourth stages, watercourses (2 from head, middle and tail of each distributary/minor, 12 total) and villages (16 total) were randomly selected (
Table 1). From each village 8–10 adopters of CSA in cotton production and 4–5 conventional cotton farmers were randomly selected, resulting in 198 cotton farmers i.e., 133 adopters of CSA in cotton production and 65 conventional cotton farmers. The study also conducted three Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) by engaging local Farmer’s Organizations (FOs) and local leaders i.e., Nambardar (village headman nominated by the government) in each selected distributary (head, middle and tail) to identify the adopters of CSA in cotton production. The number of participants in each FGD were 25–30, of different age group, gender, income level, agriculture characteristics and geographic location along the canal. The surveyed villages had more than 50 percent of farmers using CSA practices and technologies. The field visits of that particular area found around 12 percent conventional cotton farmers from each village destroyed their cotton crop at early stage and after first picking due to abrupt weather changes, insect pest attack and poor management practices [
1]. Due to these reasons the sampled population of conventional cotton farmers from each village was small compared to adopters of CSA.
In the study area, Cotton–Wheat is the dominant cropping system as majority of the farmers grow cotton (47 percent in Khanewal and 20 percent in Sahiwal) and Wheat (51 percent in Khanewal and 46 percent in Sahiwal) as major crops during Kharif and Rabi seasons [
48]. The production of cotton in the study area is adversely affected by climate change, soil salinity, drought prone, water shortage and quality, lowering depth of water table and massive extraction of groundwater due to arid and semi-arid geographic location. Due to these reasons the sampled population of conventional cotton farmers from each village was small compared to adopters of CSA. The surface and groundwater are used by the farmers to fulfill the irrigation water requirement for cotton crop in the study area. Groundwater is a main source of irrigation for agriculture as partial canal water supplies are available. In both distributaries, this study found that the contribution of canal water during the Kharif cropping season of 2016–2017 was 25–40 percent of the total irrigation requirements for Kharif crops.
Additionally, both distributaries received very low rainfall. On average, 5L and 2R/10R distributary received 160 mm and 80 mm annual rainfall, respectively. Therefore, groundwater was used as a main source of irrigation. The water table and bore depth were observed to range between 14–20 m and 50–60 m in both distributaries. The sample data also showed that the range of groundwater mining is 0.34–0.70 m/year. Because of lower water table, the tubewell installation cost and groundwater extraction cost is rising in both distributaries. It has been observed that groundwater quality varies across the canal command area, usually head farms have good groundwater quality (fit) compared to middle and tail ends (marginal fit–unfit) in both distributaries. The adopters of CSA in cotton production and conventional cotton farmers were interviewed at their farm premises by using a well-structured questionnaire. The data on climate change, groundwater quality, groundwater and surface water supplies, socio-economic characteristics, farm and household information, impact of various CSA practices and technologies on crop yield and farm income were collected from both adopters of CSA in cotton production and conventional cotton farmers in each selected village. In addition, supplementary information related to climate change, irrigation water, geographic, and farm characteristics and CSA practices and technologies were collected from the members of local Farmer’s Organizations (FOs) and local leaders. Similarly, data on groundwater quality and depth of water table during Kharif and Rabi season 2016–2017 of both distributaries were collected from the Directorate of Land Reclamation (DLR), Punjab. This department collect data on groundwater quality and depth of water table twice a year i.e., Pre-monsoon (May–June) and Post-monsoon (October–November). The study also observed that various CSA practices and technologies i.e., water-smart, energy-smart, carbon-smart and knowledge-smart were widely adopted by the cotton farmers in both distributaries.
2.2. Financial Performance: Cost and Benefits
The conventional cost and benefit method are used to analyze the financial performance of adopters of CSA in cotton cultivation and conventional cotton growers. The cost of production of cotton farmers included the cost of all inputs (e.g., seed, land preparation, sowing, intercultural operations, land rent, fertilizer, irrigation, pesticides, weedicides, farm yard manure, micro-nutrients, labor wages (family and hired) and picking) used in the production process of cotton. The opportunity cost is used in case of farmers have their own land, farm machinery, seed and family labor. Similarly, total revenue (also called Gross Value Product (GVP)) is also calculated. This study used
t-test assuming unequal variances for comparing the mean values of two-groups. [
14,
15,
21,
49]. By using unequal variances, the proportion of adopters and conventional cotton farmers do not pose any biasness. Following [
15,
32,
45,
47,
50], estimation methods of net return and Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) are as under.
2.3. Econometric Model
Cobb-Douglas production function is being employed by many researchers [
10,
32,
45,
46,
47,
51] to investigate the impact of different socio-economic factors and physical inputs on crop yield. This study used double-log production model to find the impact of climate-smart agriculture through sustainable water use management on cotton production in Lower Bari Doab Canal (LBDC) irrigation system of Punjab, Pakistan. The double-log production model is given in the form of equation:
where lnGVP = log of gross value of cotton production (PKR/acre).
LnX1 = log of farm experience of respondent (years)
LnX2 = cotton area (acre)
LnX3 = seed cost (PKR/acre)
LnX4 = land preparation cost (PKR/acre)
LnX5 = fertilizer cost (PKR/acre)
LnX6 = tubewell irrigation cost (PKR/acre)
LnX7 = picking cost (PKR/acre)
LnX8 = electrical conductivity (EC), used for groundwater quality (dS/m)
DCSA = dummy variable, 1 for adopters of CSA in cotton cultivation and 0 otherwise
DCA = dummy variable, 1 for access to credit and 0 otherwise
DExt. = dummy variable, 1 for access to extension services and 0 otherwise
= error term
4. Conclusions
The study investigated the financial performance and impact of climate-smart agriculture through sustainable water use management on cotton production in Lower Bari Doab Canal (LBDC) irrigation system of Punjab, Pakistan. In the study area, cotton farmers are using various CSA practices and technologies to counter the adverse impacts of climate change. The study found that main reasons of adopting CSA practices and technologies are limited supply of canal water, climate change, drought-prone, massive groundwater extraction, rapidly declining water table and increasing soil salinity over the time. The results of the analysis revealed that uniform germination, higher yield and financial returns, concentration of inputs, and increase in resource use efficiency are the main advantages of CSA. The results of the analysis also revealed some interesting factors i.e., CSA, excess to extension services have positive association with gross value of cotton product, and the negative association between groundwater quality and gross value of cotton product. The entire results showed the absolute advantage of CSA over conventional cotton farming. Hence, cotton production by using CSA practices and technologies is financially, environmentally and socially far better than conventional cultivation of cotton. Consequently, these CSA practices and technologies in the cotton growing area of Punjab and Sindh province would benefit many cotton farmers and significantly reduced the negative impact of climate change and variability on cotton-wheat cropping system in Pakistan. Therefore, the results of the analysis exposed some thought-provoking facts, which are unique in the context of Pakistan and also have significant policy implications.
The study suggested recommendations for policymakers, farmers and other stakeholders to promote CSA in cotton cultivation. These policy implications will improve crop productivity, increase net returns as thus raise livelihood of farmers.
One of the reason of poor cotton yield is the non-availability of certified seed at a wider scale as only 12 percent farmers are using certified seed. The government should make certain arrangements for the preparation and judicious distribution of certified cotton seed among farmers at their door step to promote CSA in cotton growing areas of Punjab. The progressive farmers can be taken on board for the production and distribution of certified seed in the vicinity at market price.
The government of Punjab is providing 50 percent subsidy on agricultural implements to farmers and Agricultural Service Providers (ASPs). It is advised that bed planters and laser land leveler should be included in the list of subsidized implements. The provision of these implements should be prioritized in cotton growing and water scared areas of Punjab.
Awareness campaign about benefits of CSA practices and technologies need to be launched through print and electronic media and apps on smart phones in cotton growing areas. The success stories need to be demonstrated and disseminated, showing all the necessary measures to be adopted for sustainable farming, using CSA. Government can establish farmer’s field school and give necessary training to farmers, NGOs representatives, local leaders and ASPs regarding the use of water-smart, energy-smart, carbon-smart and knowledge-smart practices and technologies of CSA.
Another important reason of low adoption rate of CSA is limited access to farm services (e.g., greater availability of resources, easy access to credit, market and agricultural extension services). The low adoption rate of CSA calls for major reforms in agricultural development policies and strategies. Access to above stated farm services can be the major drivers for adoption of CSA, particularly for small and marginalized farmers. That will provide incentives for farmers to use CSA practices and technologies which would play a role in rural poverty reduction and modernization of agriculture.
Over the time, advisory services on climate change, and CSA practices and technologies remained unsatisfactory. Because of this poor performance, cotton farmers in Pakistan are experiencing low productivity, poor resource use efficiency and excessive use of external inputs. Therefore, a need arises for enhancing the training opportunities for all stakeholders (agricultural extension agents, agricultural service providers, progressive farmers, community representatives and public and private water related agencies) about climate change, and CSA practices and technologies.
In addition to the contributions of this paper, there are several limitations that are worth mentioning. Although the sample size of conventional cotton farmers was small compared to adopters of CSA and survey was conducted in two districts with limited supply of canal water, climate change, drought-prone, massive groundwater extraction, rapidly declining water table and increasing soil salinity issues, our estimations are based on cross sectional data. Further, the target respondents in our survey are both adopters of CSA and conventional cotton farmers. A large sample size can be taken into count and other management practices can also be considered in future studies. Additionally, study can also be conducted in the areas where cotton crop is not badly affected by abrupt weather changes.