Enhancing the Practical Utility of Risk Assessments in Climate Change Adaptation
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
3. Results
3.1. Comparing Definitions
3.2. Comparing Risk/Vulnerability Assessments/Approaches
3.3. Comparing the Application of Risk/Vulnerability Assessments/Approaches
4. Discussion
- Reduce greenhouse gas emissions to lessen the frequency and severity of future hazards
- Undertaking adaptation measures that reduce exposure (by relocating the building outside the potentially flooded area)
- Undertaking adaptation measures that reduce sensitivity (by making sure that vulnerable groups or activities are not housed in that building)
- Undertaking adaptation measures that increasing adaptive capacity (by installing flood mitigation measures for the building; presence of early warning systems).
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Term | IPCC pre-AR5 Definition | IPCC AR5 Definition |
---|---|---|
Adaptive Capacity | The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. | The ability of people, institutions, organizations, and systems, using available skills, values, beliefs, resources, and opportunities, to address, manage, and overcome adverse conditions in the short to medium term. |
Exposure | The nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations. | The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental services and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected. |
Hazard | No glossary definition | The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend, or physical impact, that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources. |
Risk | No glossary definition | The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard. |
Sensitivity | The degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change. | The degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change. |
Vulnerability | Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. | The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt. |
Impact Assessment | Vulnerability Assessment | Risk Assessment | |
---|---|---|---|
Inputs | Impact assessments require details of weather and climate hazards and the natural and human systems with the potential to be affected. | Sensitivity and adaptive capacity data are needed to undertake a vulnerability assessment, based on the IPCC’s AR5 approach. | The IPCC’s AR5 risk approach focuses on the interaction between hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Data are required on these themes to complete an assessment. |
Outputs | Potential weather and climate impacts to natural and human systems. Cascading impacts, within and between systems, are significant yet can be difficult to establish due limited data and modeling capacity. | Details of the vulnerability of ‘receptors’ to weather and climate hazards. Data permitting, vulnerability can be mapped spatially. | Identification of weather and climate risks. Data permitting, risk assessment outputs can be mapped spatially. |
Issues | Impact assessments generally provide no indication of the probability of impacts occurrence. Impact severity, which relates factors including hazard intensity and the vulnerability of the system to the event, is not commonly considered. | Adaptation responses can be developed to reduce vulnerability. However, without details of the probability of, and potential spatial exposure to, hazards, the effectiveness of responses to moderate vulnerability is reduced. | Risk assessments provide a picture of priority risks, in terms of their probability and consequence, enabling available response capacity and resources to be targeted more effectively. |
Project (Year) | Brief Description | Conceptualization | Spatial Unit | Gaps |
---|---|---|---|---|
ASSCUE (2006) [42] | The ASSCUE project looked at the impacts of climate change on towns and cities in the UK. ASSCUE considered the concept of risk in order to underpin the development of conurbation and neighborhood scale adaptation strategies. | Risk | Urban Morphology Types | Limited comparability—based on UK only and at conurbation and neighborhood scale |
ESPON (2011) [43] | ESPON developed a typology of European regions based on their vulnerability to climate change, their adaptive capacity, and the impact that climate change may have on the economy. | Vulnerability | NUTS 3 | Limited data availability. Different use of the term exposure. Limited to a typology based on climate and geography; not socio-economic issues (although socio-economic indicators are mapped). |
PESETA II (2014) [44] | The JRC PESETA II project (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) aimed to understand the spatial effects of the biophysical and social impacts of climate change on European regions and also for different sectors. | Vulnerability | NUTS 2 | Limited to a focus on climate and economic impacts. |
EEA Urban Vulnerability Map (2015) [45] | This EEA‘s map book provides a Europe-wide overview of the potential vulnerability of major European urban areas to climate change by highlighting areas of potential weakness. | Vulnerability | EU-OECD Classification of Cities | Limited set of indicators. Focused on present-day. |
RAMSES (2016) [37] | RAMSES developed risk assessment tools using existing data. A top-down, indicator approach identified climate risks for 571 European cities as contained in the Urban Audit. | Risk | EU-OECD Classification of Cities | Limited set of indicators. Limited number of cities. |
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Connelly, A.; Carter, J.; Handley, J.; Hincks, S. Enhancing the Practical Utility of Risk Assessments in Climate Change Adaptation. Sustainability 2018, 10, 1399. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10051399
Connelly A, Carter J, Handley J, Hincks S. Enhancing the Practical Utility of Risk Assessments in Climate Change Adaptation. Sustainability. 2018; 10(5):1399. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10051399
Chicago/Turabian StyleConnelly, Angela, Jeremy Carter, John Handley, and Stephen Hincks. 2018. "Enhancing the Practical Utility of Risk Assessments in Climate Change Adaptation" Sustainability 10, no. 5: 1399. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10051399