Next Article in Journal
A Methodology for the Selection of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Methods in Real Estate and Land Management Processes
Previous Article in Journal
Absent Agroecology Aid: On UK Agricultural Development Assistance Since 2010
Article Menu
Issue 2 (February) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Sustainability 2018, 10(2), 506;

Forecasting China’s Coal Power Installed Capacity: A Comparison of MGM, ARIMA, GM-ARIMA, and NMGM Models

School of Economic and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, China
School of Management & Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 25 January 2018 / Revised: 11 February 2018 / Accepted: 11 February 2018 / Published: 13 February 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Energy Sustainability)
Full-Text   |   PDF [2252 KB, uploaded 13 February 2018]   |  


Construction of new coal-fired power plants in China has posed a huge challenge to energy sustainability. Forecasting the installed capacity more accurately can serve to develop better energy sustainability strategy. A comparison between linear and non-linear forecasting models can more comprehensively describe the characteristics of the prediction data and provide multi-angle analysis of the prediction results. In this paper, we develop four time-series forecasting techniques—metabolism grey model (MGM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), grey model (GM)-ARIAM, and nonlinear metabolism grey model (NMGM)—for better forecasting of coal-fired power installed capacity. The average relative errors between the simulation and actual data of the MGM, GM-ARIMA, ARIMA, and NMGM model are 3.37%, 2.13%, 3.71% and 2.36% respectively, which indicate those four models can produce highly accurate results. The forecasting results show the average annual growth rate of China’s coal-fired power installed capacity in the next ten years (2017–2016) will be 5.26% a year, which is slower than the average annual growth rate (8.20% a year) for 2007–2016. However, the average annual new added installed capacity for 2017–2026 will be 74 gigawatts, which is higher than the average annual added installed capacity (56 gigawatts) for 2007–2016. View Full-Text
Keywords: China; coal-fired power; forecasting; linear and nonlinear model China; coal-fired power; forecasting; linear and nonlinear model

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Li, S.; Yang, X.; Li, R. Forecasting China’s Coal Power Installed Capacity: A Comparison of MGM, ARIMA, GM-ARIMA, and NMGM Models. Sustainability 2018, 10, 506.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics



[Return to top]
Sustainability EISSN 2071-1050 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top