Sustainability of Renewable Off-Grid Technology for Rural Electrification: A Comparative Study Using the IAD Framework

Abstract

This paper analyses the implementation of renewable off-grid technologies in rural areas, especially where an extension to the national electricity grid was not considered economically feasible. Implementation of remote, stand-alone, electricity technologies as alternatives to a grid connection to provide sustainable electricity access have often failed with many planned projects not realised or abandoned. Our initial assumption was that stand-alone electricity project exhibiting higher scores on sustainability indicators would benefit communities more and make their endurance more likely. However, the impact of the stand-alone technology was often overruled or its quality weakened by government preferences wishing to realise a connection to the central electricity grid. Empirically, the study compares three cases of stand-alone micro-hydropower projects and three cases of stand-alone solar photovoltaic projects in Bogor Regency, Indonesia. It is based on qualitative document analysis, complemented by multiple rounds of semi-structured interviews and observations. The paper assesses the extent to which each project met indicators of technical, economic, social, environmental, and institutional sustainability. The paper tries to explain the endurance of the project from these sustainability scores and uses additional explanations from Ostrom’s Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. The findings show that, for the studied local communities, the attractiveness of a grid connection overrules the virtues of a stand-alone electricity project, despite its quality, successful operation and impact. Our research also shows that government policy priorities changed in the rural electrification programme for some communities. In these situations, the off-grid rural electrification programme predominantly provided only temporary access to sustainable electricity for remote local communities that remained waiting and hoping for a grid connection to connect them to fossil fuel-dominated electricity.

1. Introduction

Despite all global efforts, 14% of the world population still has no access to electricity, while 84% live in rural areas in developing countries [1]. Increasing access to electricity in these rural areas through grid connection is considered difficult, expensive [2] and often economically not feasible in remote rural areas [3]. The long distances, difficult terrain, low projected levels of consumption, low density, and poverty of rural communities make investments in a grid connection highly unfeasible [3,4,5]. Stand-alone small-scale electricity technologies are often considered and implemented as an alternative for grid connection in remote rural areas [6,7]. The stand-alone systems almost always operate on renewable technologies using locally available resources (biomass, river). These approaches are low cost. They can meet local needs and can allow the community to participate in the selection of energy [6,8].

Indonesia is employing this type of electrification in several rural areas because connection to the central grid here often is constrained by geography and costs. On one hand, these initiatives increase the electrification ratio of the country and on the other hand, they reduce the heavy reliance on crude oil, natural gas, and coal for power generation [9]. Therefore, these remote projects, using renewable technologies, have the potential to improve the environmental impact of the national electricity system.

However, despite the active implementation of stand-alone systems in the rural electrification programme, only a few electricity-generating units are actually operating. Meanwhile, other units have been damaged, neglected or their existence has not been even noticed at all [9]. Rural electrification’s ongoing maintenance after implementation is often overlooked [10,11,12]. The projects are sometimes only viewed through the prism of short-term success factors. The community’s, and also the government’s, preference for a connection to the central grid often challenge the continuation of -stand-alone electricity technology Thus, to measure the success of off-grid rural electrification is not just a matter of implementing a project, but also of ensuring their sustainability and how they endure over the years. Therefore, it is highly relevant to analyse the design, implementation, impact and sustainability of these remote stand-alone electricity projects. The stronger these projects are and the longer they exist, the more they could provide a sustainable alternative to the grid connection and a fossil fuel electricity provision.

Our research was guided by the following research question: To what extent existing off-grid renewable-based rural electrification projects are sustainable and which factors explain their endurance?

Empirically, the paper focuses on six stand-alone renewable-based electricity projects in Bogor Regency; in the hinterlands of Jakarta—the capital city of Indonesia. Bogor Regency is located in West Java Province. It has an area of 29,884 square kilometres. Administratively, it consists of 40 districts, 417 villages and 17 urban villages. In late 2014, its population has reached 5,300,000 inhabitants, of whom 9% live in poverty (around 485,000 people).

This paper is structured as follows. Section 2 introduces and explains the theoretical framework used that consists of two parts: one part classifying the sustainability of the six stand-alone electricity projects on five dimensions of sustainability. The other part explains the (un)sustainability and duration of the projects under the IAD framework of Elinor Ostrom. Section 3 explains some details of data and the methods we used for our empirical research. Section 4 presents the results in two parts: one part scores the six projects on the five sustainability dimensions. The other part explains the sustainability performance of the six projects. Finally, Section 5 draws conclusions and answers the research question.

2. Theoretical Framework

Rural electrification provides rural communities access to electricity. The method of bringing electricity to these, quite often remote, areas can vary from connection to the national grid through to supply from off-grid systems, from isolated generators serving single or groups of consumers [13,14]. It is related not only to the different technologies used but also to the delivery models applied [4]. For some rural areas, especially where the situation combines remoteness, low population density, and poverty, grid extension is considered too costly. Furthermore, even where grid-based electricity is available, electricity supply often is unstable and relatively poor in quality [13]. The availability of small-scale renewable-based technologies means stand-alone electricity generation technologies can bring electricity to remote rural areas in an affordable way if governments and donors are willing to provide financial and policy support [2].

However, the development of renewable, stand-alone technologies for rural electrification is difficult as implementation requires trade-offs among several aspects [15]. Numerous studies have focused on the multi-dimensional sustainability assessment of the rural electrification [4,12,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23]. One holistic and multi-dimensional sustainability concept has been proposed and elaborated by Ilskog [24,25,26] covering the technical, economic, social, environmental, and institutional dimensions of sustainability.

The technical dimension embraces the operation and maintenance of the technology and the electricity service, while the economic dimension covers the financial gains and the economic development spin-off for the community. The social dimension refers to the equal distribution of the benefits offered by electrification, while the environmental dimension covers the impacts on the local and global environment. Finally, the institutional dimension focusses on the survival of the organisation and its ability to maintain adequate performance with respect to the other dimensions of sustainability.

Our research has applied a series of 43 sustainability indicators developed by Yadoo [4] and based on the work of Ilskog. These have been fine-tuned to the local circumstances to assess sustainability performance of six rural stand-alone electrification projects in the Bogor Regency. Thereby some indicators are omitted or merged in the comparative analysis (see 30 indicators that are put in use in Appendix A). The main reason for this was that the omitted indicators were not applicable to all or the majority of the cases involved in our study. Our assessment covers all five dimensions of sustainability and their endurance.

Our second explanation of endurance considers how communities organised, managed and used the stand-alone electricity generating technologies, based on the well-known Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework of Elinor Ostrom c.s. [27,28] (see yellow part in Figure 1 below). Ostrom developed the framework to analyse, explain and improve natural resource management under commons conditions. In this paper, this refers to the renewable-based community electricity projects.

The fifth sustainability dimension and the IAD framework are both labelled “institutional”, but the indicators used vary. The institutional explanation in the IAD framework considers the human-interaction situations of participants in the rural electrification projects. It looks at their positions and the information they have to act on to achieve outcomes. It also considers the benefit and costs they perceive for these outcomes. Such rules-in-use define the action arena in the IAD framework and are used to explain the events that take place. The core part of the IAD explanation in this paper focuses on the rules in use for running the stand-alone technologies and will not go into biophysical/material conditions and the attributes of the community. Elaborating how collective outcomes vary based on the local arrangements in each project may explain why one project can have a stronger endurance than others.

3. Materials and Methods

With respect to the renewable-based technology employed, our research compares six existing off-grid rural electrification projects to assess their sustainability and the rules in use that might explain their endurance. We applied a multiple case study design that analyses phenomena in their holistic context alongside the meaningful characteristics of real-life events [29]. The case studies include three micro-hydro projects (MHP) and three solar photovoltaic (SPV) projects. The MHP projects are all run-of-river using small water turbines, while the three SPV projects used technologies with storage facilities. Later in this paper, two of SPV projects are defined as SHS (Solar Home System)—an individual household system—to differentiate them from the other one that is a communal project.

Within the case studies, mixed methods were employed that predominantly using a qualitative research approach. Data collected from the research are mixed qualitative and quantitative, using document analysis, semi-structured interviews and field observations. Interviews were held with purposely selected informants who represented the stakeholders in each project. This includes community leaders, government (kampung, village, regency, province and national), the project developer/operator, donors, and other related organisations. Meanwhile, observations were made in the communities running the projects. Every project was visited three to four times between March 2015 and March 2017. The data generated from one informant was triangulated with other informants. The results of semi-structured interviews were triangulated against the observation data and also with secondary data collected from available documents and vice versa. This triangulation method enables different levels of analysis to be embedded in each case study in order to validate the data [29].

4. Comparative Analysis

The six cases analysed are located in the Bogor Regency region nearby Jakarta (Figure 2). Bogor Regency is in the transition cluster between rural and peri-urban areas and serves as a buffer zone for the centre of economic growth. Entire villages and rural villages in Bogor Regency are already connected to the electricity grid, although the electrification ratio varies from village to village. The growth of generation capacity in the region has not kept up with the increasing electricity demand. This results in frequent ‘black-outs’ (power loss) or ‘brown-outs’ (poor power quality) of the system, in particular at the rural ends of the distribution grid [30].

Nearly 18% of households have no access to electricity due to low budget availability and physical constraints that hinder a proper connection to the national electricity grid distribution network. Most of the non-electrified communities reside in areas that are sparsely populated or geographically difficult terrain and where grid extension is not economically viable. People in these areas have to rely on power from diesel engines, kerosene lamps, batteries or candles, with all their disadvantages: high costs, environmental pollution, higher risks to health and fossil fuels dependency.

As a result, off-grid solutions using renewable-energy resources for electricity generation and its distribution have been adopted. 22 recorded renewable energy programmes have been implemented in Bogor Regency. These include nine MHP, four SPV and nine biogas projects. Various actors/stakeholders were involved in funding and organising the programme, including local communities, government, non-government organisations and also private sector organisations. Unfortunately, only eleven of these projects were found to have operated and only six were still operating at the start of our research.

The six communities were excluded from the grid-based rural electrification programme because their location was too distant from the existing grid poles. Therefore, they were offered renewable-based stand-alone electricity technology solutions. Three communities run an MHP project and three communities run an SPV project.

Table 1. Basic features of the six projects.

	Hydropower Cisaat	Hydropower Paseban	Hydropower Cibuluh	Solar Cibuyutan	Solar Cioray—Cibuntu	Solar Gunung Batu
Funding source	CSR PLN	Provincial Budget	National Budget	National Budget	National Budget	National Budget
Power capacity	5 kW	11.2 kW	47.46 kW	15 kWp	50 Wp per house	50 Wp per house
Users (households)	22	69	146	106	223	56
Year commissioned	2012	2011	2005	2013	2008–2009	2009
System	Communal	Communal	Communal	Communal	Individual	Individual
Management	Local community organisation	Local community organisation	Local community organisation	Local community organisation	Households	Households
Ownership	Community	Community	Community	Government of Bogor Regency	Households	Households
Extension of the grid to the kampung	None	2014	2015	None	2014	2015
Operation of the off-grid system	Still operating as a sole power source for all households	Still operating for 3 scattered houses; Back up for 30 houses	Discontinued after the grid coming	Still operating as a sole power source for all households	15 scattered houses and 1 mosque still rely on their SHS units; and use for back-up in 60 houses	- Since 2012, only 15 houses left that used their SHS units as back-up - After the grid came, no SHS left
Total number of years in operation	6	7	10	5	9	6

Source: Own elaboration based on data collected during the study. PLN: Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Indonesia state-owned electricity company); kW: kilowatt; kWp: kilowatt peak; Wp: Watt peak; SHS: Solar Home System.

shows the basic characteristics of the six communities and their electricity technology, including whether the communities were later connected to the grid and to what extent they are still operating. The number of households served by the projects differs, as does the volume of electricity available per household. The organisation, management and funding of the six projects are quite comparable.

4.1. Sustainability Assessment

The sustainability assessment analyses five dimensions with results as illustrated in Figure 3, while a more detailed breakdown can be found in Appendix A. While many indicators were not comparable quantitatively, the scoring is kept very simple. An absolute value of one point was awarded each time the indicator was met within a case, 0.5 was awarded if the indicator was only partially met and none where the indicator was not met. Our assumption was that the higher the scores on sustainability indicators, the more benefit the technology provides for the community and, consequently, the more likely the projects would endure. This last ‘dependent’ variable—the endurance of the project—is described in the last row of Table 1 above. The figures in the spider graph below are the points that were scored on the relevant indicators for each of the dimensions, divided by the maximum possible points.

Figure 3 shows that, in general, the communities with MHP projects had a better overall performance than those with SPV projects. Compared to other projects, the MHP Cibuluh has the highest score on four dimensions: technical, economic, social and institutional, but lower than MHP Cisaat in the environmental dimension. However, the MHP Cibuluh was the project that performs best from an overall sustainability perspective and, therefore, is assumed to have the best prospects for a long duration. The performance of the SHS in Kampung Gunung Batu shows the lowest score in all sustainability dimensions. This project only kept its operation at a very minimal electricity capacity for only three years.

Technical sustainability of the MHP projects is better than the SPV projects, mostly because of lower operation and maintenance costs. In the solar projects, disruptions and technical losses happened frequently and the generated capacity was not meeting the needs of the users. External technical support and expertise, also spare parts, were lacking in the SPV projects. The MHP projects had to deal with fluctuating water flows. Paseban even had to stop operating during the dry season.

All projects scored low on the economic dimension. This was mainly due to very low income generating capacities. With the financial support provided by the government, users were only charged for operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. When properly informed, the community were prepared to maintain the O&M and tried to fulfil any necessary arrangements. Unfortunately, this did not work well in the SPV projects. The SPV users’ willingness to pay for the O&M cost was inadequate to maintain the system. This influenced their lower level of economic sustainability when compared with the MHP projects. In addition, the highest score on the economic dimension was by the MHP Cibuluh, where the community successfully managed the savings from the O&M budget to support a revolving fund for their agricultural activities.

With regard to the social dimension, the lower score of the SPV project was caused by the unavailability of generated capacity. Electricity access could not give significant improvement to other services, such as health services, streetlights and reduced use of firewood. On the other hand, the MHP projects did improve the social dimension of sustainability.

Meanwhile, the environmental sustainability performance was influenced by the capacity of the system to replace the dirty energy sources for lighting and cooking. The restricted capacity limited the villager’s use of household electrical appliances. More specifically, the solar home system was not adapted for cooking rice; the main dish in the communities. With respect to the quality of the natural environment, only in kampung Cisaat, the project contributed to improving the environment, by raising the community’s awareness. Villagers became aware of the importance of protecting the river to help ensure adequate water stream flows to fuel the turbine.

For the institutional dimension, two MHP projects had high scores: MHP Cibuluh and MHP Cisaat. Both had their institutional capacity strengthened, stakeholder participation existed and client-relations were adequately managed. Local organisations with sufficient skill and ability to access external support contributed to the relatively high scores on the institutional dimension. The lack of local know-how and capabilities in managing the system, especially in the SPV projects, decreased the sustainability of the projects. The adoption of the ‘new’ solar PV technology by the rural community was not supported with adequate training and assistance. The community was not prepared to manage the new PV-based electricity system. Participation from external stakeholders was not available to support the community. Meanwhile, the community had already used micro-hydro technology. This ensured a better technical and institutional setting arrangement that helped them perform the daily operation and maintenance tasks.

The overall conclusion is that the three micro-hydro projects had a better sustainability score than the three PV projects. This was due to better technical and institutional performances. The river-based hydro technology has a longer tradition in the region that communities are more familiar with compared to the newer PV-based technology. However, the hydro projects overall also had better scores on the institutional dimension. This refers to the quality of the community efforts to organise the operation and continuation of the projects.

Table 2. Endurance and sustainability scores of the six projects.

	Hydropower Cisaat	Hydropower Paseban	Hydropower Cibuluh	Solar Cibuyutan	Solar Cioray—Cibuntu	Solar Gunung Batu
Extension of the grid to the kampung	None	2014	2015	None	2014	2015
Operation of the off-grid system	Still operating as a sole power source for all households	Still operating for 3 scattered houses; Back up for 30 houses	Discontinued after the grid coming	Still operates as a sole power source for all households	15 scattered houses and 1 mosque still rely on their SHS units; and use for back-up in 60 houses	Since 2012, only 15 houses left that used their SHS units as back-up. After the grid came, no SHS was left
Total number of years in operation	6	7	10	5	9	6
Total sustainability score	3.97	3.35	4.18	2.05	1.93	1.60

shows both qualitative statements on endurance and the number of years the projects have been in operation, alongside their sustainability scores. When comparing the total years in operation, we see that Cibuluh has the highest score on both, but also that the second lowest sustainability score coincides with the second longest period in operation. When we look at the qualitative statements, we see that the two that have continued to operate as the sole power source had different results with their sustainability scores. Their continuation is clearly related to the fact that they still had no grid connection (opportunity). Of the other four that did get a later grid connection, the one with the best sustainability score was completely discontinued, as was the one with the lowest score. Our intermediate conclusion is that the sustainability performance is only one of the considerations affecting the endurance of the projects. Another consideration was that the grid eventually extended to the previously infeasible communities due to the government’s later preference for the rural electrification programme to connect to the central network. Afterwards, to better understand the positions of the six projects, we continued our analysis using Ostrom’s IAD framework to further explore how communities perform in operating the projects.

4.2. A Further Analysis of the Impact of Institutional Factors on the Endurance of the Projects

This part of the analysis was guided by the IAD framework suggested by Elinor Ostrom, as visualised in the right part of Figure 1 in Section 2 above. For this paper, we concentrated only on the rules in use and did not go into material conditions (such as varying water flows) and the attributes of the community (such as the cohesion of the community), as their impacts are already incorporated within the sustainability scores. These settings can be described by a set of seven rules that guide the way local communities organise and manage their natural resources. In our case, these refer to the renewable-based stand-alone electricity generation technology.

Of the seven rules formulated by Ostrom, we distinguished five rules that are of interest across our case studies regarding the endurance of each project. These are: position rules, authority rules, aggregation rules, information rules, and pay-off rules. The other two rules do not differentiate between the cases. The position rules establish positions, assign participants to positions, and define who has control over tenure in a position. Authority rules assign sets of actions that participants in positions must, may, or may not take. Aggregation rules define how decisions are made in an action situation that then affects the level of control that a participant in a position exercises in the selection of an action. Information rules define the exchange knowledge-contingent information between participants in the area. The pay-off rules determine how the costs and benefits are distributed in the action arena [28,31].

In all six cases, the off-grid system has brought new positions to the community. However, these new positions have not been clearly defined in all cases (position rules). In particular, the position of the local community as such was not clearly recognised and defined. It was unclear, for instance, as to whether the community owned the project or not. Meanwhile, the involvement of the local community when the system came into operation has significantly influenced the continuity of the projects. The actions assigned to each position, as defined in the authority rules, among others as consumer, producer, operator or owner, could keep the project operating. Consequently, the MHP system in kampung Cibuluh and Cisaat, where all participants had clarity about what is allowed and not allowed in their positions, were able to maintain the operation. Contrary to this, MHP Paseban and SPV Cibuyutan lacked clear rules to regulate the households when they started to take more electricity than they were allowed to, overusing the system and causing the system to function less well.

The hand-over of the project’s asset and ownership at the end of the construction phase has clearly influenced the conditions for proper functioning and continuation of the system. For the three MHP cases’, ownership was certainly given to the community; although administratively it was the village’s asset. Meanwhile, in the case of SPV Cibuyutan, whose ownership was not clearly defined since the beginning, lack of skills and financial capability of the community could not guarantee a proper functioning of the SPV system in providing sufficient electricity. Even after ownership was clearly handed over to the Government of Bogor Regency, there was no definite action that aimed to change these circumstances, such as adapting rules and creating a new arrangement for ownership and responsibility.

Different to the ‘communal ownership’ cases is the individual ownership in the two solar home system case studies. This was supposed to clearly define the household’s positions as producer, alongside their role as consumers. Households got the system as a ‘present’, without additional rules agreed to ensure the system continued operating. Every household was held responsible for the operation and maintenance, but this was not really organised in terms of repair, spare-part replacement and financial support. These two SHS case studies were not adequately prepared, implemented and organised.

For the aggregation rules, the decision-making about the establishment of the off-grid system was centralised in all case studies and located outside of the kampung’s community. Even though background information concerning the backwardness of the electricity access was delivered through a bottom-up mechanism, the distance between the kampung and the project funder, in terms of both spatial and also hierarchical position, has restricted the power of the communities to participate in decision-making. However, decision-making in the operation phase depends on the local community as the end-users. They should make and accept a basic arrangement to support the O&M of the system. In the cases of MHP Cibuluh and MHP Cisaat, the decision-making on the project was adequate. The head of kampung managed to get the whole community enthusiastic for the successful operation of the system in terms of decision-making. All participants respected and gave good input in the decision-making process.

Unfortunately, in the MHP Paseban case, the former rules-in-use, that were already arranged to support its operation and maintenance, were not functioning anymore. These broke down after the frequent disruptions due to the decrease of the river water flows and after the grid came in the 3rd year after the operation began. Afterwards, the continuation of the MHP system was threatened because there was no new arrangement agreed concerning almost any of the rules.

In the SPV Cibuyutan case, when the system was granted to the community, then the head of the kampung decided a financial arrangement. This covered the O&M budget, but any additional rules regarding operation, maintenance, and continuation of the system were absent. It was basically the head of the kampung who arranged collective decision-making and outcomes. After he passed away, it became clear that aggregation rules for decision-making were missing.

The individual SHS cases in kampung Cibuntu, Cioray and Gunung Batu had no rules to reach decisions and to keep the system functioning. All the villagers just abandoned the solar system when they liked.

The communication between the participants to share knowledge and information was clearly ruled in MHP Cibuluh and MHP Cisaat (information rules). Local knowledge and the consumer’s perspective were taken into account when the projects faced problems or when discussing the operational rules, such as in MHP Cisaat and MHP Cibuluh. This might be when there was a need to adjust the affordability of the O&M cost, to determine who was to be involved and how they might contribute to the O&M of the system. Information related to repair, spare-part maintenance or the saving of costs was accessible in a two-way process between the local organisation and the households. The information sharing between the villagers was carried out through community meetings. Not only was information shared at the village level, but also at the level of the kampung, within the community. In the other four cases, no rules on information exchange between participants were defined with respect to the operation of the system, the supply/consumption of electricity and the consequences of over-consumption.

The financial system for MHP Cisaat was adequately organised and managed so that the community was able to save sufficient money to support the kampung improvement programme. In effect, the community as a whole benefited from the implementation of the MHP system in the kampung. Clearly defined pay-off rules in the MHP Cibuluh case led to a well-organised economic organisation of the system that ensured finances were available to construct the system, and enabled the benefits for the community to exceed the costs. However, the new grid connection has caused an unbalance in costs and benefits for each household. This is because the initial cost for the installation of the off-grid technology became wasted, whereas the costs for electricity bill also increased as electricity demand increased. This happened in all of the four kampungs that are currently connected to the grid. Even so, a few households have reacted to the imbalance by continuing the off-grid system as back-up, thus allowing them to save some spending for electricity bills.

SPV Cibuyutan is still functioning but has no rules for when consumers misused the system (no pay-off rule). This led to the overuse of the system by some households on the accounts of the other consumers. Some consumers took more electricity from the system than allowed. This led to the overexploitation of the system. At the same time, the O&M budget decreased as some consumers refused to pay their monthly contribution.

When looking at the adequacy of the various rules-in-use, these have some relationship with the stability of the operation of off-grid systems in the period before the grid arrived. However, despite some projects still continuing operations as a partial backup for a few villagers, the arrival of the grid was seen as a better alternative to obtain electricity access. This was even the case for MHP Cibuluh that had been arranged adequate rules-in-use to support a good implementation and operation for 10 years.

5. Conclusions

This paper has analysed and explained the operation and the impact of six stand-alone renewable-based electricity projects in the Bogor Regency in Indonesia. Knowing that 14% of the global population does not have access to electricity, with 84% of them living in poorly developed rural areas in developing countries, stand-alone electricity projects are generally considered as a good alternative to costly connections to national grids. For that reason, the Indonesian government initiated a rural electrification programme based on stand–alone renewable-based technologies using locally available renewable resources. A total of 22 recorded renewable energy programmes have been implemented in Bogor Regency. Unfortunately, only ten of those projects were found to have been operating and only six projects were still operating at the start of our research.

Our research was guided by the following research question:

To what extent existing off-grid renewable-based rural electrification projects are sustainable and which factors explain their endurance?

Our results provided the following answer to this question: Based on five dimensions, we assessed the sustainability of the six projects. We conclude a very mixed picture with respect to extent of sustainability. It showed that the technology is more challenging when it becomes more fragile and complex, as is the case of solar-based technology, compared to the more robust hydropower technology. It also showed that the technical backup of the systems for maintenance and spare parts is very weak in all projects. The results on the other dimensions are also very mixed, with hardly any systematic patterns on one or more dimensions.

Our original position assumed a positive relationship between the overall sustainability performance of the system and its endurance. The evidence did not support this proposition. The studies revealed a strong wish of communities to be connected to the grid. This counteracts the positive impact of the sustainability level of the project. While it is presumed that a project with low sustainability performance may be replaced for a grid connection as soon as is possible, it was unforeseen that the case with a high sustainability score can fail to maintain the operation of the project. The households in Kampung Cibuluh easily decided not to keep their off-grid technology that had been operating for ten years with a high sustainability performance. On the other hand, when the grid is not feasible and goes beyond the villager’s capability, such as in Kampung Cisaat or Kampung Cibuyutan, the project was forced to operate as it is.

We applied the IAD framework alongside sustainability performance to explain more of the variance in the endurance of the systems. The assumption was that each case study had specific characteristics and rules-in-use that caused success or failure of project operations. Exploring the adequacy of the rules-in-use to support the implementation and operation of the system has explained reasonably how a project succeeded or failed to self-manage the MHP or SPV system in their kampung, and before the grid arrived.

However, the dual explanations arising from the sustainability score and rules-in-use study still have limitations in explaining why the coming of the grid over-ruled everything, even though the systems were functioning well and operated with good institutional arrangements. It may be that the IAD framework is better at explaining relatively stable situations, rather than sudden changes. Therefore, any further study will consider additional analysis that uses actor characteristics to answer questions that still remain. Eleanor Ostrom, in her paper with Polski [32], hinted as such herself suggesting that more specifications on human values and preferences, participants’ information and access to resources in the analysis of the participants’ decision-making behaviour would be helpful to supplement her previous model.

The stand-alone electrification programme was meant to support the socio-economic development of rural communities in Indonesia. Our results show how several projects managed to operate adequately for a few years. These communities managed to establish a workable approach for organising and managing their systems, including a financial recovery system for operation and maintenance. One project even managed to use the electricity project finances to fund investments in agriculture. This shows the potential strength of the stand-alone renewable-based electrification programme for remote rural communities in Indonesia. However, our empirical experience from Bogor Regency in Indonesia shows how vulnerable the off-grid renewable rural electrification policy can be. Many were terminated before the study began. Among the remaining six projects, deterioration and termination continued, especially when people saw an opportunity to be connected to the grid. While international donors globally support off-grid renewable rural electrification, the circumstances similar to those found by our research are very likely to occur in other countries.

Adequate regional and local level capacities were missing for the longer-term duration of these kinds of programmes. These programmes sometimes drop a technology on a community leaving the duration and quality of its service completely dependent on the creative and intellectual capacities and ability of the community themselves to organise and guarantee their operational and financial management. The absence of proper assistance and attention from government or other stakeholders has hindered the improvement of access. The case studies show that the implementation of off-grid rural electrification has been often regarded as just temporary access, without considering that grid extensions can lead to a discontinuation of electricity provisions that are more sustainable-based. Replacing off-grid technology with a new grid network not only requires (additional) capital cost for the infrastructure, but also means communities have to give up a local renewable energy source to generate electricity.

As soon as a community running a stand-alone project gained access to the grid, the stand-alone project was neglected or terminated. This phenomenon was neither foreseen, nor explained by their sustainability performance or their institutional arrangement prior to the arrival of the grid. In this way, the grid-based electrification programme in Indonesia interferes with the stand-alone logic of the rural electrification programme. This can clearly destroy community efforts and performances in providing renewable-based electricity to the community. Here, we are facing a dilemma. The rural community often consider a grid connection as a condition for local development, despite its poor reliability in remote areas. At the same time, a grid connection destroys a tiny contribution to reducing the environmental impact of fossil-based electricity production and consumption in Indonesia when a renewable-based stand-alone project in the Indonesian countryside stops. How to deal with this dilemma is beyond the scope of this paper. Here we can only conclude that, based on our research findings, the dual focus and multi-dimensional aspects of rural electrification in Indonesia are well worth reconsidering.