Abstract
The rapid uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Jawa–Madura–Bali (Jamali) grid produces highly variable charging demands that threaten the supply–demand balance. To forestall instability, we developed a predictive simulation based on long short-term memory (LSTM) networks that combines historical generation and consumption patterns with models of EV population growth and initial charging-time (ICT). We introduce a novel supply–demand balance score to quantify weekly and annual deviations between projected supply and demand curves, then use this metric to guide the machine-learning model in optimizing annual growth rate (AGR) and preventing supply demand imbalance. Relative to a business-as-usual baseline, our approach improves balance scores by 64% and projects up to a 59% reduction in charging load by 2060. These results demonstrate the promise of data-driven demand-management strategies for maintaining grid reliability during large-scale EV integration.