J. Mark. Access Health Policy, Volume 9, Issue 1 (January 2021) – 20 articles

Background: Gene therapies can treat, prevent, or cure a disease by changing the expression of a person’s genes. They are an innovative strategy for treating genetic disorders; however, they are still emerging on the market access and in the healthcare system. Health technology assessment (HTA) agencies have not yet elaborated any standardised approach for assessing gene therapies; therefore, significant differences can be seen during HTAs carried out in various countries. In this review, we focused on submitted economic models of gene therapies approved for use by the US FDA and EMA with the aim to provide a comprehensive summary of how selected HTA bodies assessed the cost-effectiveness of gene therapies. An additional objective was to examine and discuss differences in the methods used in economic models across countries and drugs. Methods: We identified economic models of gene therapies from six countries (NICE, IQWiG, SMC, HAS, CADTH, ICER) and focused on nine agents (Glybera, Imlygic, Strimvelis, Yescarta, Kymriah, Luxturna, Zynteglo, Zolgensma, Tecartus). Details of cost-utility evaluations and budget impact models were reviewed and extracted. Results: Overall, 983 publications were identified, and 17 studies were included for the analysis. Reviewed evaluations of gene therapies differed in terms of the study perspective, discounting, extrapolation of outcomes based on limited and immature data, time horizon, and adequate estimation of benefits in terms of quality-adjusted life-years. Methods of economic evaluations were in line with the current recommendations; however, long-term follow-up studies are still missing. Conclusions: Discrepancies in an economic evaluation of gene therapies between different HTA bodies are rooted in a lack of general assessment frameworks specific to gene therapies. Although challenges were resolved by adjustments to the currently used value assessment framework, new methodological approaches would be useful. In addition, to improve the methods and quality of an evaluation, further research would be valuable. Full article

Objective: This study aims at investigating associations between COVID-19 mortality and SARS-COV-2 variants spread during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Methods: For 38 European countries, data on numbers of COVID-19 deaths, SARS-COV-2 variants spread through time using Nextstrain classification, demographic and health characteristics were collected. Cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths and height of COVID-19 daily deaths peak during the second wave of the pandemic were considered as outcomes. Pearson correlations and multivariate generalized linear models with selection algorithms were used. Results: The average proportion of B.1.1.7 variant was found to be a significant predictor of cumulative COVID-19 deaths within two months before the peak and between 1 January–25 February 2021, as well as of the deaths peak height considering proportions during the second wave and the pre-peak period. The average proportion of EU2 variant (S:477 N) was a significant predictor of cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the pre-peak period. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that spread of a new variant of concern B.1.1.7 had a significant impact on mortality during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and that proportions of EU2 and B.1.1.7 variants were associated with increased mortality in the initial phase of that wave. Full article

Introduction: Outcome-based agreements (OBAs) are occasionally deployed to relieve the burden of high drug prices on healthcare budgets. However, it is not clear when manufacturers are willing to collaborate in establishing such agreements. Therefore, we explored the feasibility of OBAs from the manufacturer’s point of view. Methods: Dutch market-access experts from eight major pharmaceutical companies, globally active in the field of oncology, were interviewed. Opinions were compiled, and interviewees and their colleagues were then given the chance to review the manuscript for additional comments. Results: Most interviewees believe that OBAs can be useful in providing access to off-label use of authorised medicines, especially when no alternative treatment is available for seriously ill patients. For the licenced indications, manufacturers seem to be more inclined to collaborate when there is a potential incentive to improve market-access (e.g., if the product is not used because of concerns regarding its effectiveness). However, manufacturers are less likely to collaborate when there are greater financial risks for the company. Further concerns were definition of outcome or performance, the impact of compliance on the effectiveness of a drug, administrative burden, uncertainty regarding revenue recognition and the challenges of reimbursing combination therapies. Discussion: Market-access interviewees were generally positive about OBAs, however they were more reluctant towards OBAs for registered indications with low response-rate. The definition of performance or outcome and its clinical relevance and validity, the feasibility of OBAs and their administrative burden are relevant aspects that need to be addressed in advance. Ideally, countries should collaborate to share the outline of OBAs and create shared databases to accumulate evidence. Full article

It is widely acknowledged that using p-value thresholds as the basis for making decision on health care spending is not appropriate. In the context of medical decision making, we argue that patient preferences need to be a stronger factor. Depending on attitudes to risk, patients might prefer a medical treatment that performs on average worse than a comparator but offers a small probability of a large gain such as a cure. However, what has been labeled ‘value of hope’ is not yet fully reflected in the decision-making process of drug approval and health technology assessment (HTA). Therefore, patient risk preferences should be formally incorporated within the decision-making framework for regulatory and reimbursement decisions. Full article

Background: In the United States (US), colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths. With the majority of the US population covered by employer-based health plans, employers can play a critical role in increasing CRC screening adherence, which may help avert CRC-related deaths. Therefore, it is important for self-insured employers to consider the impact of appropriate utilization of CRC screening options. Objective: To evaluate the impact of increasing multitarget stool DNA [mt-sDNA (Cologuard^®)] use among CRC screeners from the perspective of a US self-insured employer. Methods: A 5-year Markov model was developed to quantify the budget impact of increasing mt-sDNA from 6% to 15% among average-risk screeners using colonoscopy, fecal immunological test, and mt-sDNA. Data on direct medical costs were obtained from published literature, Medicare CPT codes, and the Healthcare cost and Utilization project. Indirect costs included productivity loss due to workplace absenteeism for CRC screening and treatment. Results: With a hypothetical population of 100,000 employees with screeners aged 50–64 years, compared to status quo, increased mt-sDNA utilization resulted in no differences in the numbers of cancers detected and the overall direct and indirect cost savings were ~$214,000 ($0.04 per-employee-per-month) over 5 years. Most of the savings were due to a reduction in the direct medical expenditure related to CRC screening, adverse events, and productivity loss due to colonoscopy screening. Similar results were observed in the model simulation among screeners aged 45–64 years. Conclusion: Increased utilization of mt-sDNA for CRC screening averts direct and indirect medical costs from a self-insured US employer perspective. Full article

Background: The practice of non-medical switch (NMS) from a reference biological (originator) to a biosimilar is widely accepted in some countries. However, there is little documentation on the impact of NMS from one originator to another originator. Objectives: To assess the consequences for patients of NMS from one biological originator to another, based on existing literature. The focus was on efficacy and cost of treatment with TNF-α-inhibitors in three disease areas. Methods: A literature search was conducted in Ovid (PubMed, EMBASE) and abstracts from meetings in key therapeutic areas, to identify studies reporting efficacy, safety or costs by switching between originator biologics. Results: 167 references were identified and abstracts screened; 36 papers reviewed in full text, and 6 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Three clinical studies of NMS had very small sample sizes, but suggested that NMS is beneficial. The remaining three studies used administrative data with little clinical information, indicating that NMS was disadvantageous and associated with increased health care utilization and costs. Conclusions: There is very limited documentation on NMS from one originator biological to another, and the literature suffers from methodological limitations. The results are mixed and preclude drawing an overriding conclusion. Future studies, are warranted. Full article

The lack of adequate treatment for many patients with opioid use disorder (OUD) has led to high medical costs ($90B in 2020). An analysis of the cost-effectiveness (cost-utility) of reSET-O, the first and only FDA-approved prescription digital therapeutic (PDT) for the treatment of OUD, is needed to inform value assessments and healthcare decision making. To evaluate the cost-utility of reSET-O in conjunction with treatment-as usual (TAU) compared to TAU alone. A third-party payer-perspective decision analytic model evaluated the cost-effectiveness of reSET-O + TAU relative to TAU (i.e., oral buprenorphine, face-to-face counseling, and contingency management [immediate rewards for negative drug tests logged]) alone over 12 weeks. Clinical effectiveness data (retention in therapy and health state utilities) were obtained from the peer-reviewed literature, while resource utilization and cost data were obtained from a published claims data analyses. Over 12 weeks, the addition of reSET-O to TAU resulted in a gain of 0.003 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and $1,014 lower costs, resulting in economic dominance vs. TAU. reSET-O + TAU’s was economically dominant (less costly, more effective) vs. TAU alone over 12 weeks, a result that was driven by a reduction in medical costs after initiation of reSET-O observed in a recent real-world claims analysis. Full article

Background: In recent years, innovation in oncology has created new challenges for pricing and reimbursement systems. Oncology medicines with multiple indications face a number of access challenges: (1) the number of assessments and administrative burden; (2) aligning price to different values of the same product; (3) managing clinical uncertainty at time of launch; and (4) managing budget uncertainty. These challenges impact a range of stakeholders and can result in delayed patient access to life-saving treatments. Consequently, countries have taken steps to facilitate patient access. Methods: Drawing on the experience across Europe we have reviewed different mechanisms countries have adopted that address these challenges. These include approaches aimed directly at the issue, multi-year-multi-indication (MYMI) agreements (BE, NL), and other approaches to manage access: flexible access agreements for new indications with clinical uncertainty (UK); development of a new agreement for each new indication (IT); and immediate access for new indications and bundled assessments (DE). Results: MYMI agreements are valuable where existing rules mean that every indication faces the same upfront evaluation process that delays patient access. They are also useful in managing budget impact and uncertainty. Other approaches that adopt an indication-specific approach helps manage clinical uncertainty at the time of launch and realise different values for the same product. They can help align price to value, even though indication-based pricing does not exist. Bundled assessments reduce the administrative burden for stakeholders, and the benefits of immediate reimbursement is that patient access is not delayed. Conclusion: The challenges for medicines with multiple indications impact a range of stakeholders and can result in delayed patient access to life-saving treatments. MYMI agreements have created a more pragmatic approach to HTA for medicines with multiple indications to ensure both fast and broad patient access. Continued innovation in oncology will require further innovative approaches in pricing and reimbursement. It is important that policymakers, payers and manufacturers engage in early discussions and are willing to find new solutions to help accelerate patient access to innovative therapies. Full article

Background: The optimisation of vaccine policies before their implementation is beholden upon public health decision makers, seeking to maximise population health. In this case study in Serbia, the childhood vaccines under consideration included pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV), rotavirus (RV) vaccination and varicella zoster virus (VZV) vaccination. Objective: The objective of this study is to define the optimal order of introduction of vaccines to minimise deaths, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, or hospitalisation days, under budget and vaccine coverage constraints. Methods: A constrained optimisation model was developed including a static multi-cohort decision-tree model for the three infectious diseases. Budget and vaccine coverage were constrained, and to rank the vaccines, the optimal solution to the linear programming problem was based upon the ratio of the outcome (deaths, QALYs or hospitalisation days) per unit of budget. A probabilistic decision analysis Monte Carlo simulation technique was used to test the robustness of the rankings. Results: PCV was the vaccine ranked first to minimise deaths, VZV vaccination for QALY loss minimisation and RV vaccination for hospitalisation day reduction. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the most robust ranking was that for PCV minimizing deaths. Conclusion: Constrained optimisation modelling, whilst considering all potential interventions currently, provided a comprehensive and rational approach to decision making. Full article

Evidence about the Nigerian health indicators show that the quality of health care in Nigeria is low and inflation of health care prices also persists. Theoretically, by observing the market concentration, inferences can be drawn as to how hospitals conduct themselves, which allows the evaluation of the market performance. Therefore, the effects of market concentration on the health care price and quality were examined. Market concentration was measured by Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) and four hospital concentration ratios (CR₄). The values of HHI were disaggregated into the less and more concentrated markets. Quality of health care was measured by the staff-nurse-patient ratio. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) was used to estimate the effects of market concentration on price and quality of health care. The price of health care was found to be 13.4% lower in the less concentrated markets than in the more concentrated market. Income significantly and positively influenced health care prices by 17.8%. Also, a low HHI lead to 33.4% increase in Staff-nurse Patient Ratio (SPR) indicating that the quality of health care was higher in less concentrated markets as hospitals increased the treatment intensity via staff-nurse patient ratio. A less concentrated market is linked with higher health care quality and lower health care prices. Therefore, a strategy that will reduce market concentration so as to enhance consumer welfare in terms of price and quality is recommended. Full article

Background: Standard of care (SoC) for transfusion-dependent β-thalassemia (TDT) requires lifelong, regular blood transfusions as well as chelation to reduce iron accumulation. Objective: This study investigates the cost-effectiveness of betibeglogene autotemcel (‘beti-cel’; LentiGlobin for β-thalassemia) one-time, gene addition therapy compared to lifelong SoC for TDT. Study design: Microsimulation model simulated the lifetime course of TDT based on a causal sequence in which transfusion requirements determine tissue iron levels, which in turn determine risk of iron overload complications that increase mortality. Clinical trial data informed beti-cel clinical parameters; effects of SoC on iron levels came from real-world studies; iron overload complication rates and mortality were based on published literature. Setting: USA; commercial payer perspective. Participants: TDT patients age 2–50. Interventions: Beti-cel is compared to SoC. Main outcome measure: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) utilizing quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Results: The model predicts beti-cel adds 3.8 discounted life years (LYs) or 6.9 QALYs versus SoC. Discounted lifetime costs were $2.28 M for beti-cel ($572,107 if excluding beti-cel cost) and $2.04 M for SoC, with a resulting ICER of $34,833 per QALY gained. Conclusion: Beti-cel is cost-effective for TDT patients compared to SoC. This is due to longer survival and cost offset of lifelong SoC. Full article

Background: Simulation modeling facilitates the estimation of long-term health and economic outcomes to inform healthcare decision-making. Objective: To develop a framework to simulate progression of Parkinson’s disease (PD), capturing motor and non-motor symptoms, clinical outcomes, and associated costs over a lifetime. Methods: A patient-level simulation was implemented accounting for individual variability and interrelated changes in common disease progression scales. Predictive equations were developed to model progression for newly diagnosed patients and were combined with additional sources to inform long-term progression. Analyses compared a hypothetical disease-modifying therapy (DMT) with a standard of care to explore the drivers of cost-effectiveness. Results: The equations captured the dependence between the various measures, leveraging prior values and rates of change to obtain realistic predictions. The simulation was built upon several interrelated equations, validated by comparison with observed values for the Movement Disorder Society Unified PD Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) and UPDRS subscales over time. In a case study, disease progression rates, patient utilities, and direct non-medical costs were drivers of cost-effectiveness. Conclusions: The developed equations supported the simulation of early PD. This model can support conducting simulations to inform internal decision-making, trial design, and strategic planning early in the development of new DMTs entering clinical trials. Full article

Background: Evidence suggests that triple therapy for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is being used in a broader range of patients than recommended by guidelines, which may have health and cost implications. Objective: To explore the relationship between national health technology assessment (HTA) agency appraisals and market penetration of two fixed-dose combination (FDC) triple therapies. Study design: HTAs from Q3 2017 to Q1 2020 from 10 countries were evaluated. Intervention: Glycopyrronium bromide/formoterol fumarate/beclomethasone (Trimbow^®) and umeclidinium/vilanterol/fluticasone furoate (Trelegy™ Ellipta^®). Main outcome measure: HTA restrictions and prescribing rates (days of therapy). Results: Seven countries (70%) imposed restrictions on use including prescription only for patients stable on free-combination triple therapy or not controlled on dual therapy, requirement of a specialist prescription or therapeutic plan, prescription only for patients with severe COPD, and use as second-line therapy or later. In general, countries that have imposed restrictions on the use of FDC triple therapies have seen a lower than average uptake. Conclusion: Payer guidance on prescribing FDC triple therapy may potentially support more appropriate prescribing in line with clinical guidelines. It is important for payers to consider which restrictions would ensure the most efficient use of scarce resources. Full article

Background/Objective: This study evaluated emergency department (ED) visit trends, subsequent inpatient admissions for patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) diagnosis and IBD-related abdominal pain (AP), and hospital-level variation in inpatient admission rates in the USA (US). Methods: This population-based, cross-sectional study included data from Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS, 2006─2013) database. Patients ≥18 years of age with primary ED diagnosis of IBD/IBD-related AP were included. Variables included demographics, insurance information, household income, Quan-Charlson comorbidity score, ED discharge disposition, and length of hospital stay (2006, 2010, and 2013). Variation between hospitals using risk-adjusted admission ratio was estimated. Results: Annual ED visits for IBD/100,000 US population increased (30 in 2006 vs 42 in 2013, p = 0.09), subsequent admissions remained stable (20 in 2006 vs 23 in 2013, p = 0.52). ED visits for IBD-related AP increased by 71% (7 in 2006 vs 12 in 2013; p = 0.12), subsequent admissions were stable (0.50 in 2006 vs 0.58 in 2013; p = 0.88). Proportion of patients with subsequent hospitalization decreased (IBD: 65.7% to 55.7%; IBD-related AP: 6.9% to 4.9%). Variation in subsequent inpatient admissions was 1.42 (IBD) and 1.96 (IBD-related AP). Conclusions: An increase in annual ED visits was observed for patients with IBD and IBD-related AP; however, subsequent inpatient admission rate remained stable. Full article

Background and objective: Although the treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) has significantly evolved with the introduction of direct-acting antivirals, the treatment uptake rates have been low especially among marginalized groups in the UK, such as people who inject drug (PWID) and men who have sex with men (MSM). Cutting health inequality is a major focus of healthcare agencies. This study aims to identify the optimal allocation of treatment budget for chronic hepatitis CHC among populations and treatments in the UK so that liver-related mortality in patients with CHC is minimized, given the constraint of treatment budget and equity issue. Methods: A constrained optimization modelling of resource allocation for the treatment of CHC was developed in Excel from the perspective of the UK National Health System over a lifetime horizon. The model was designated with the objective function of minimizing liver-related deaths by varying the decision variables, representing the number of patients receiving each treatment (elbasvir-grazoprevir, ombitasvir-paritaprevir-ritonavir-dasabuvir, sofosbuvir-ledipasvir, and pegylated interferon-ribavirin) in each population (the general population, PWID, and MSM). Two main constraints were formulated including treatment budget and the issue of equity. The model was populated with UK local data applying linear programming and underwent internal and external validation. Scenario analyses were performed to assess the robustness of model results. Results: Within the constraints of no additional funding over original spending in status quo and the consideration of the issue of equity among populations, the optimal allocation from the constrained optimization modelling (treating 13,122 PWID, 160 MSM, and 904 general patients with ombitasvir-paritaprevir-ritonavir-dasabuvir) was found to treat 2,430 more patients (relative change: 20.7%) and avert 78 liver-related deaths (relative change: 0.3%) compared with the current allocation. The number of patients receiving treatment increased 4,928 (relative change: 60.1%) among PWID and 42 (relative change: 35.8%) among MSM. Conclusion: The current allocation of treatment budget for CHC is not optimal in the UK. More patients would be treated, and more liver-related deaths would be avoided using a new allocation from a constrained optimization modelling without incurring additional spending and considering the issue of equity. Full article

Background: Recent cost-utility analysis (CUA) models for onasemnogene abeparvovec (Zolgensma^®, formerly AVXS-101) in spinal muscular atrophy type 1 (SMA1) differ on key assumptions and results. Objective: To compare the manufacturer’s proprietary CUA model to the model published by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER), and to update the manufacturer’s model with long-term follow-up data and some key ICER assumptions. Study design: We updated a recent CUA evaluating value for money in cost per incremental Quality-adjusted Life Year (QALY) of onasemnogene abeparvovec versus nusinersen (Spinraza^®) or best supportive care (BSC) in symptomatic SMA1 patients, and compared it to the ICER model. Setting/Perspective: USA/Commercial payer. Participants: Children aged <2 years with SMA1. Interventions: Onasemnogene abeparvovec, a single-dose gene replacement therapy, versus nusinersen, an antisense oligonucleotide, versus BSC. Main outcome measure: Incremental-cost effectiveness ratio and value-based price using traditional thresholds for general medicines in the US. Results: Updated survival (undiscounted) predicted by the model was 37.60 years for onasemnogene abeparvovec compared to 12.10 years for nusinersen and 7.27 years for BSC. Updated quality-adjusted survival using ICER’s utility scores and discounted at 3% were 13.33, 2.85, and 1.15 discounted QALYs for onasemnogene abeparvovec, nusinersen, and BSC, respectively. Using estimated net prices, the discounted lifetime cost/patient was $3.93 M for onasemnogene abeparvovec, $4.60 M for nusinersen, and $1.96 M for BSC. The incremental cost per QALY gained for onasemnogene abeparvovec was dominant against nusinersen and $161,648 against BSC. These results broadly align with the results of the ICER model, which predicted a cost per QALY gained of $139,000 compared with nusinersen, and $243,000 compared with BSC (assuming a placeholder price of $2 M for onasemnogene abeparvovec), differences in methodology notwithstanding. Exploratory analyses in presymptomatic patients were similar. Conclusion: This updated CUA model is similar to ICER analyses comparing onasemnogene abeparvovec with nusinersen in the symptomatic and presymptomatic SMA populations. At a list price of $2.125 M, onasemnogene abeparvovec is cost-effective compared to nusinersen for SMA1 patients treated before age 2 years. When compared to BSC, cost per QALY of onasemnogene abeparvovec is higher than commonly used thresholds for therapies in the USA ($150,000 per QALY). Full article

Background: The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework to define a domain map describing the experience of patients with severe mental illnesses (SMIs) on the quality of mental health care. Methods: This study used an exploratory qualitative approach to examine the subjective experience of adult patients (18–65 years old) with SMIs, including schizophrenia (SZ), bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD). Participants were selected using a purposeful sampling method. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 37 psychiatric inpatients and outpatients recruited from the largest public hospital in southeastern France. Transcripts were subjected to an inductive analysis by using two complementary approaches (thematic analysis and computerized text analysis) to identify themes and subthemes. Results: Our analysis generated a conceptual model composed of 7 main themes, ranked from most important to least important as follows: interpersonal relationships, care environment, drug therapy, access and care coordination, respect and dignity, information and psychological care. The interpersonal relationships theme was divided into 3 subthemes: patient-staff relationships, relations with other patients and involvement of family and friends. All themes were spontaneously raised by respondents. Conclusion: This work provides a conceptual framework that will inform the subsequent development of a patient-reported experience measure to monitor and improve the performance of the mental health care system in France. The findings showed that patients with SMIs place an emphasis on the interpersonal component, which is one of the important predictors of therapeutic alliance. Full article

Background: Adjuvant treatment options have become the standard therapy for stage III and IV resectable cutaneous melanoma. Two recent studies led to the registration of dabrafenib and trametinib as targeted therapies for BRAF-mutated melanoma, and of immunotherapy with nivolumab irrespective of BRAF-mutation status. Both therapies have different spectrums of adverse events. Objective: To estimate the financial impact of side effects from the perspective of the German statutory sick funds to compare both therapeutic options and to relate the burden to the overall costs of the treatment. Study design and setting: Thirty-six adverse event categories for the combination of dabrafenib and trametinib (‘combi treatment’) and for nivolumab were extracted from the original publications of the studies named COMBI-AD and CheckMate 238. Patients and intervention: For all event categories a diagnosis and therapy recommendation were determined according to current national or international guidelines or from leading German textbooks. Main outcome measure: The resulting diagnostic steps, treatments, and therapies were evaluated with unit costs based on the German fee schedule for ambulatory physicians, the German G-DRG scheme, and the German drug price list. Results: The number of events with nivolumab per one hundred treatments amounted to 3.8 mandatory hospitalizations, 3.5 emergency care events and 0.8 life-threatening events. For the combi treatment, the respective number of events per one hundred treatments was 2.7, 1.8, and 0.5. The overall cost burden was calculated as €899 for nivolumab and €861 for combi-treatment. Conclusion: The treatment of adverse events resulting from adjuvant melanoma therapy showed comparable costs for both therapies. Full article

Background: Assessment of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) is paramount for decision-making. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) estimates uncertainty by varying all input parameters simultaneously within predefined ranges; however, PSA often ignores correlations between parameters. Objective: To implement an efficient algorithm that integrates parameter correlation in PSA. Study design: An algorithm based on Cholesky decomposition was developed to generate multivariate non-normal parameter distributions for the age-dependent incidence of herpes zoster (HZ). The algorithm was implemented in an HZ CEA model and evaluated for gamma and beta distributions. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and the probability of being cost-effective at a given ICER threshold were calculated for different levels of correlation. Five thousand Monte Carlo simulations were carried out. Results: Correlation coefficients between parameters sampled from the distribution generated by the algorithm matched the desired correlations for both distribution functions. With correlations set to 0.0, 0.5, and 0.9, 90% of the simulations showed ICERs below $25,000, $33,000, and $38,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), respectively, varying incidence only; and below $38,000, $48,000, and $58,000 per QALY, respectively, varying most parameters. Conclusion: Parameter correlation may impact the uncertainty of CEA results. We implemented an efficient method for generating correlated non-normal distributions for use in PSA. Full article

Background: Currently literature on the impact of patent expiry on drug prices is lacking. Objective: To determine the impact of patent expiration and generic entry on drug prices in the Netherlands. Methods: Prescription and price data from 1999 up to and including December 2016 were collected from two national databases. The overall price ratio of drugs prices up to 48 months after patent expiration was compared to the price in the month before expiry. Sub-analyses were performed to provide insights in generic uptake, length of market exclusivity and price development for originators and generics separately. Results: In total 250 drugs faced patent expiration during the study period. Forty-eight months after patent expiration the median price ratio decreased to 0.59 (IQR = 0.23–0.86) compared to the month prior patent expiry. Major differences in price developments were observed depending on the level of revenue prior to patent expiration and the time of patent expiration with ratios ranging from 0.08 (IQR = 0.07–0.16) to 0.81 (IQR = 0.62–0.97). Prior to patent expiry, the price decreased by 2.3% annually while having market exclusivity for 11.3 years on average. Conclusion: This study showed that the median drug price after patent expiration decreased by 41% after 4 years. The results of this study can be used to provide more reliable estimates on drug prices over its lifecycle and can be implemented in economic evaluations to inform the cost-effectiveness and long-term budget impact of new drugs. Full article