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Article

Modeling Long-Term Health and Economic Implications of New Treatment Strategies for Parkinson’s Disease: An Individual Patient Simulation Study

by
Conor Chandler
1,*,
Henri Folse
2,
Peter Gal
3,
Ameya Chavan
4,
Irina Proskorovsky
5,
Conrado Franco-Villalobos
5,
Yunyang Wang
5 and
Alex Ward
1
1
Department of Modeling & Simulation, Evidera, Waltham, MA, USA
2
Department of Modeling & Simulation, Evidera, New Orleans, LA, USA
3
Department of Modeling & Simulation, Evidera, Budapest, Hungary
4
Department of Modeling & Simulation, Evidera, Bethesda, MD, USA
5
Department of Modeling & Simulation, Evidera, Montreal, QC, Canada
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Mark. Access Health Policy 2021, 9(1), 1922163; https://doi.org/10.1080/20016689.2021.1922163
Submission received: 25 February 2021 / Revised: 6 April 2021 / Accepted: 22 April 2021 / Published: 3 June 2021

Abstract

Background: Simulation modeling facilitates the estimation of long-term health and economic outcomes to inform healthcare decision-making. Objective: To develop a framework to simulate progression of Parkinson’s disease (PD), capturing motor and non-motor symptoms, clinical outcomes, and associated costs over a lifetime. Methods: A patient-level simulation was implemented accounting for individual variability and interrelated changes in common disease progression scales. Predictive equations were developed to model progression for newly diagnosed patients and were combined with additional sources to inform long-term progression. Analyses compared a hypothetical disease-modifying therapy (DMT) with a standard of care to explore the drivers of cost-effectiveness. Results: The equations captured the dependence between the various measures, leveraging prior values and rates of change to obtain realistic predictions. The simulation was built upon several interrelated equations, validated by comparison with observed values for the Movement Disorder Society Unified PD Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) and UPDRS subscales over time. In a case study, disease progression rates, patient utilities, and direct non-medical costs were drivers of cost-effectiveness. Conclusions: The developed equations supported the simulation of early PD. This model can support conducting simulations to inform internal decision-making, trial design, and strategic planning early in the development of new DMTs entering clinical trials.
Keywords: Anti-Parkinson therapy; cost-effectiveness; cost-utility; economic model; Parkinson’s disease Anti-Parkinson therapy; cost-effectiveness; cost-utility; economic model; Parkinson’s disease

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Chandler, C.; Folse, H.; Gal, P.; Chavan, A.; Proskorovsky, I.; Franco-Villalobos, C.; Wang, Y.; Ward, A. Modeling Long-Term Health and Economic Implications of New Treatment Strategies for Parkinson’s Disease: An Individual Patient Simulation Study. J. Mark. Access Health Policy 2021, 9, 1922163. https://doi.org/10.1080/20016689.2021.1922163

AMA Style

Chandler C, Folse H, Gal P, Chavan A, Proskorovsky I, Franco-Villalobos C, Wang Y, Ward A. Modeling Long-Term Health and Economic Implications of New Treatment Strategies for Parkinson’s Disease: An Individual Patient Simulation Study. Journal of Market Access & Health Policy. 2021; 9(1):1922163. https://doi.org/10.1080/20016689.2021.1922163

Chicago/Turabian Style

Chandler, Conor, Henri Folse, Peter Gal, Ameya Chavan, Irina Proskorovsky, Conrado Franco-Villalobos, Yunyang Wang, and Alex Ward. 2021. "Modeling Long-Term Health and Economic Implications of New Treatment Strategies for Parkinson’s Disease: An Individual Patient Simulation Study" Journal of Market Access & Health Policy 9, no. 1: 1922163. https://doi.org/10.1080/20016689.2021.1922163

APA Style

Chandler, C., Folse, H., Gal, P., Chavan, A., Proskorovsky, I., Franco-Villalobos, C., Wang, Y., & Ward, A. (2021). Modeling Long-Term Health and Economic Implications of New Treatment Strategies for Parkinson’s Disease: An Individual Patient Simulation Study. Journal of Market Access & Health Policy, 9(1), 1922163. https://doi.org/10.1080/20016689.2021.1922163

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