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Article

Will SARS-CoV-2 Become Just Another Seasonal Coronavirus?

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Department of Mathematics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
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Division of Epidemiology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84108, USA
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University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
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School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Amber M. Smith
Viruses 2021, 13(5), 854; https://doi.org/10.3390/v13050854
Received: 6 April 2021 / Revised: 29 April 2021 / Accepted: 30 April 2021 / Published: 7 May 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Modeling of Viral Infection)
The future prevalence and virulence of SARS-CoV-2 is uncertain. Some emerging pathogens become avirulent as populations approach herd immunity. Although not all viruses follow this path, the fact that the seasonal coronaviruses are benign gives some hope. We develop a general mathematical model to predict when the interplay among three factors, correlation of severity in consecutive infections, population heterogeneity in susceptibility due to age, and reduced severity due to partial immunity, will promote avirulence as SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic. Each of these components has the potential to limit severe, high-shedding cases over time under the right circumstances, but in combination they can rapidly reduce the frequency of more severe and infectious manifestation of disease over a wide range of conditions. As more reinfections are captured in data over the next several years, these models will help to test if COVID-19 severity is beginning to attenuate in the ways our model predicts, and to predict the disease. View Full-Text
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; mathematical model; ordinary differential equations; SIR model SARS-CoV-2; mathematical model; ordinary differential equations; SIR model
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MDPI and ACS Style

Beams, A.B.; Bateman, R.; Adler, F.R. Will SARS-CoV-2 Become Just Another Seasonal Coronavirus? Viruses 2021, 13, 854. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13050854

AMA Style

Beams AB, Bateman R, Adler FR. Will SARS-CoV-2 Become Just Another Seasonal Coronavirus? Viruses. 2021; 13(5):854. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13050854

Chicago/Turabian Style

Beams, Alexander B., Rebecca Bateman, and Frederick R. Adler. 2021. "Will SARS-CoV-2 Become Just Another Seasonal Coronavirus?" Viruses 13, no. 5: 854. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13050854

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