Low Temperature and Low UV Indexes Correlated with Peaks of Influenza Virus Activity in Northern Europe during 2010–2018
by
Aleksandr Ianevski 1, Eva Zusinaite 2, Nastassia Shtaida 2, Hannimari Kallio-Kokko 3, Miia Valkonen 4, Anu Kantele 4, Kaidi Telling 2, Irja Lutsar 5, Pille Letjuka 6, Natalja Metelitsa 6, Valentyn Oksenych 1, Uga Dumpis 7, Astra Vitkauskiene 8, Kestutis Stašaitis 9, Christina Öhrmalm 10
, Kåre Bondeson 10, Anders Bergqvist 10, Rebecca J. Cox 11, Tanel Tenson 2, Andres Merits 2 and Denis E. Kainov 1,2,*
Aleksandr Ianevski 1, Eva Zusinaite 2, Nastassia Shtaida 2, Hannimari Kallio-Kokko 3, Miia Valkonen 4, Anu Kantele 4, Kaidi Telling 2, Irja Lutsar 5, Pille Letjuka 6, Natalja Metelitsa 6, Valentyn Oksenych 1, Uga Dumpis 7, Astra Vitkauskiene 8, Kestutis Stašaitis 9, Christina Öhrmalm 10, Kåre Bondeson 10, Anders Bergqvist 10, Rebecca J. Cox 11, Tanel Tenson 2, Andres Merits 2 and Denis E. Kainov 1,2,*
1
Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7028 Trondheim, Norway
2
Institute of Technology, University of Tartu, 50090 Tartu, Estonia
3
Department of Virology and Immunology, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
4
Helsinki University Hospital (HUS) and University of Helsinki, 00290 Helsinki, Finland
5
Institute of Medical Microbiology, University of Tartu, 50411 Tartu, Estonia
6
Narva Haigla, 20104 Narva, Estonia
7
Latvian Biomedical Research and Study Centre, 1067 Riga, Latvia
8
Department of Laboratory Medicine, Lithuanian University of Health Science, 44307 Kaunas, Lithuania
9
Department of Emergency Medicine, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 44307 Kaunas, Lithuania
10
Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, 75309 Uppsala, Sweden
11
Influenza Centre, Department of Clinical Science, University of Bergen, 5021 Bergen, Norway
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Viruses 2019, 11(3), 207; https://doi.org/10.3390/v11030207
Received: 11 January 2019 / Revised: 18 February 2019 / Accepted: 28 February 2019 / Published: 1 March 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Animal Viruses)
With the increasing pace of global warming, it is important to understand the role of meteorological factors in influenza virus (IV) epidemics. In this study, we investigated the impact of temperature, UV index, humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation on IV activity in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during 2010–2018. Both correlation and machine learning analyses revealed that low temperature and UV indexes were the most predictive meteorological factors for IV epidemics in Northern Europe. Our in vitro experiments confirmed that low temperature and UV radiation preserved IV infectivity. Associations between these meteorological factors and IV activity could improve surveillance and promote development of accurate predictive models for future influenza outbreaks in the region.
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Keywords:
influenza; epidemics; weather; temperature; UV
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MDPI and ACS Style
Ianevski, A.; Zusinaite, E.; Shtaida, N.; Kallio-Kokko, H.; Valkonen, M.; Kantele, A.; Telling, K.; Lutsar, I.; Letjuka, P.; Metelitsa, N.; Oksenych, V.; Dumpis, U.; Vitkauskiene, A.; Stašaitis, K.; Öhrmalm, C.; Bondeson, K.; Bergqvist, A.; Cox, R.J.; Tenson, T.; Merits, A.; Kainov, D.E. Low Temperature and Low UV Indexes Correlated with Peaks of Influenza Virus Activity in Northern Europe during 2010–2018. Viruses 2019, 11, 207.
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