Climate Change Threatens the Habitat of Pinus massoniana in China

Pinus massoniana Lamb. is one of the main timber tree species. There is a large artificial planting area in South China, and this tree has important economic and ecological value. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability model based on 115 current data and 22 environmental variables to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species. Future climate change scenarios were defined as four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): SSP 1–2.6, SSP 2–4.5, SSP 3–7.0, SSP 5–8.5) and four periods (including 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) based on nine global circulation model datasets. To fully consider the potential distribution of P. massoniana under specific climate change conditions and soil conditions, we constructed an ensemble model using four commonly used model algorithms. The results indicated that the current suitable habitat for P. massoniana covers approximately 1.10 × 10⁶ km² in southeastern China. In the future, the model results showed that under different climate change scenarios and at different times, the change in suitable habitat for P. massoniana varied; moreover, under moderate climate change scenarios, the average temperature decreased by less than 3 °C and the suitable habitat area decreased slightly, with an area larger than 0.95 × 10⁶ km². However, under intense warming scenarios, for which the average temperature increased above 3 °C, the suitable habitat for P. massoniana decreased. In the most severe warming scenario, the suitable habitat area for P. massoniana was reduced to 44% of the base climate conditions with severe habitat fragmentation, which should be fully considered in future planting initiatives and plant protection.