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Forests 2019, 10(1), 52; https://doi.org/10.3390/f10010052

Economic Impacts and Land Use Change from Increasing Demand for Forest Products in the European Bioeconomy: A General Equilibrium Based Sensitivity Analysis

1
Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany
2
Institute for Food and Resource Economics (ILR), University of Bonn, Nussalle 21, 53115 Bonn, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
This manuscript is based on the 57th annual conference of the GEWISOLA (German Association of Agricultural Economists) and the 27th annual conference of the ÖGA (Austrian Society of Economics) “Bridging the Gap between Resource Efficiency and Society’s Expectations in the Agricultural and Food Economy”. Available online: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/261986 (accessed on 15 August 2017).
Received: 21 November 2018 / Revised: 23 December 2018 / Accepted: 31 December 2018 / Published: 11 January 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Forest Bioenergy and Bioproducts)
Full-Text   |   PDF [3670 KB, uploaded 11 January 2019]   |  

Abstract

The European forestry sector is a potential driver of transformation towards a sustainable bioeconomy. Forest products are increasingly used in high-tech and high-value-added industries, e.g., chemicals and the automotive industry. So far, however, research on the European bioeconomy has largely focused on agriculture as a provider of food, feed, fuel, and fiber to bio-based industries. Here we assess the potential impacts of a stronger reliance on forestry sector inputs to the European Union (EU28) bioeconomy on output, prices, final demand, and land use. Specifically, we run a sensitivity analysis of a 1% increase of input use of forest products in the EU28 economy in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework accounting for land use by Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at high regional and sectoral resolution. We find that such a shift to a more forest-based bioeconomy would provoke small indirect land use effects globally due to existing international trade linkages and land market effects. Simulated increases in planted forest cover are associated with net GHG emission savings, but our scenario analysis also points to higher imports of forest products from countries with vulnerable tropical forest biomes, such as Brazil and Indonesia. View Full-Text
Keywords: bioeconomy; forest products; indirect land use; GHG emissions; computable general equilibrium bioeconomy; forest products; indirect land use; GHG emissions; computable general equilibrium
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Haddad, S.; Britz, W.; Börner, J. Economic Impacts and Land Use Change from Increasing Demand for Forest Products in the European Bioeconomy: A General Equilibrium Based Sensitivity Analysis. Forests 2019, 10, 52.

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