Hybrid Stochastic–Machine Learning Framework for Postprandial Glucose Prediction in Type 1 Diabetes

This research introduces a hybrid framework that integrates stochastic modeling and machine learning for predicting postprandial glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D). The primary aim is to enhance the accuracy of glucose predictions by merging a biophysical Glucose–Insulin–Meal (GIM) model with advanced machine learning techniques. This framework is tailored to utilize the Kaggle BRIST1D dataset, which comprises real-world data from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), insulin administration, and meal intake records. The methodology employs the GIM model as a physiological prior to generate simulated glucose and insulin trajectories, which are then utilized as input features for the machine learning (ML) component. For this component, the study leverages the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) due to its efficiency and strong performance with tabular data, while Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are applied to capture temporal dependencies. Additionally, Bayesian regression is integrated to assess prediction uncertainty. A key advancement of this research is the transition from a deterministic GIM formulation to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework, which allows the model to represent the probabilistic range of physiological responses and improves uncertainty management when working with real-world data. The findings reveal that this hybrid methodology enhances both the precision and applicability of glucose predictions by integrating the physiological insights of Glucose Interaction Models (GIM) with the flexibility of data-driven machine learning techniques to accommodate real-world variability. This innovative framework facilitates the creation of robust, transparent, and personalized decision-support systems aimed at improving diabetes management.