Realizing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: The Role of Renewable Energies in Vietnam
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. AIM/CGE Model
2.2. Scenario Settings
3. Results
3.1. Outlook for Vietnam in 2030—The Base Scenario
3.1.1. Primary Energy Supply
3.1.2. Final Energy Demand
3.1.3. Electricity Generation
3.1.4. GHG Emissions
3.2. Implication of Vietnam’s INDC and the Role of Renewable Energies
3.2.1. Change in Primary Energy Supply
3.2.2. Change in Final Energy Demand
3.2.3. Change in Electricity Generation
3.2.4. Welfare Loss and GDP Loss
3.2.5. Carbon Price
4. Discussion
4.1. Implications
4.2. Limitations
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Agricultural Sectors | Energy Supply Sectors | Other Production Sectors |
---|---|---|
Rice | Coal mining | Mineral mining and other quarrying |
Wheat | Oil mining | Food products |
Other grains | Gas mining | Textiles and apparel and leather |
Oil seed crops | Petroleum refinery | Wood products |
Sugar crops | Coal transformation | Paper, paper products and pulp |
Other crops | Biomass transformation (first generation) | Chemical, plastic and rubber products |
Ruminant livestock | Biomass transformation (second generation with energy crop) | Iron and steel |
Raw milk | Biomass transformation (second generation with residue) | Nonferrous products |
Other livestock and fishery | Gas manufacture distribution | Other manufacturing |
Forestry | Coal-fired power | Construction |
Oil-fired power | Transport and communications | |
Gas-fired power | Other service sectors | |
Nuclear power | Carbon capture service | |
Hydroelectric power | ||
Geothermal power | ||
Photovoltaic power | ||
Wind power | ||
Waste biomass power |
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Indicators | BaU | LowRE-LowINDC | LowRE-HighINDC | HighRE-LowINDC | HighRE-HighINDC | AddRE-HighINDC | FreeRE-HighINDC | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Socio-economic development (%/year) (Source: SEDP [40]) | Period | Population growth | GDP growth | |||||||||
2006–2019 | 1.1 | 7.0 | ||||||||||
2010–2020 | 1.0 | 6.0 | ||||||||||
2021–2030 | 0.6 | 6.0 | ||||||||||
2005–2030 | 0.9 | 6.2 | ||||||||||
Share of renewables in power generation (%) | Energy | 2020 | 2030 | 2020 | 2030 | 2030 | No exogenous setting of RE share | |||||
Nuclear | 2.1 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | |||||||
Hydro | 18.3 | 8.8 | 19.6 | 9.3 | 9.3 | |||||||
Biomass | 0.6 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | |||||||
SPV | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 12.0 | |||||||
Wind | 0.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 5.4 | |||||||
TOTAL RE | 24.8 | 24.8 | 29.2 | 34.4 | 43.1 | |||||||
(Source: NEDS [16], PDP7 [17]) | (Source: REDS [15]) | (Source: REDS [15] and assumption) | ||||||||||
GHG emissions reductionin 2030 compared to BaU (%) (Source: Vietnam INDC [12]) | None | At least 8 | 25 | At least 8 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
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Tran, T.T.; Fujimori, S.; Masui, T. Realizing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: The Role of Renewable Energies in Vietnam. Energies 2016, 9, 587. https://doi.org/10.3390/en9080587
Tran TT, Fujimori S, Masui T. Realizing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: The Role of Renewable Energies in Vietnam. Energies. 2016; 9(8):587. https://doi.org/10.3390/en9080587
Chicago/Turabian StyleTran, Thanh Tu, Shinichiro Fujimori, and Toshihiko Masui. 2016. "Realizing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: The Role of Renewable Energies in Vietnam" Energies 9, no. 8: 587. https://doi.org/10.3390/en9080587
APA StyleTran, T. T., Fujimori, S., & Masui, T. (2016). Realizing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: The Role of Renewable Energies in Vietnam. Energies, 9(8), 587. https://doi.org/10.3390/en9080587