Evaluation of Development Performance and Adjustment Strategies for High Water-Cut Reservoirs Based on Flow Diagnostics: Application in the QHD Oilfield

Offshore reservoirs in the high water-cut stage present significant development challenges, including declining production, complex remaining oil distribution, and the inadequacy of conventional evaluation methods to capture intricate flow dynamics. To overcome these limitations, this study introduces a novel approach based on flow diagnostics for performance evaluation and potential adjustment. The method integrates key metrics such as time-of-flight (TOF) and the dynamic Lorenz coefficient, supported by reservoir engineering principles and numerical simulation, to construct a multi-parameter evaluation system. This system, which also incorporates injection–production communication volume and inter-well fluid allocation factors, precisely quantifies and visualizes waterflood displacement processes and sweep efficiency. Applied to the QHD32 oilfield, this framework was used to establish specific thresholds for operational adjustments. These include criteria for infill drilling (waterflooded ratio < 45%, remaining oil thickness > 6 m, TOF > 200 days), conformance control (TOF < 50 days, dynamic Lorenz coefficient > 0.5), and artificial lift optimization (remaining oil thickness ratio > 2/3, TOF > 200 days). Field validation confirmed the efficacy of this approach: an additional cumulative oil production of 165,600 m³ was achieved from infill drilling in the C29 well group, while displacement adjustments in the B03 well group increased oil production by 2.2–3.8 tons/day, demonstrating a significant enhancement in waterflooding performance. This research provides a theoretical foundation and a technical pathway for the refined development of offshore heavy oil reservoirs at the ultra-high water-cut stage, offering a robust framework for the sustainable management of analogous reservoirs worldwide.