Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) Prediction for Eagle Ford Shale Using Integrated Datasets and Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Study Area—Eagle Ford Marl Continuous Oil Assessment Unit (AU)
3. Sources of Input Data for EUR Modeling, and Preliminary Considerations
3.1. Well Specific EUR Data
3.2. Well and Reservoir Data
4. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for Model Complexity Reduction
5. Development of ANN Models for EUR Prediction—Results and Discussion
5.1. Preliminary Models for Hyper-Parameter Search
5.2. Training, Cross-Validation and Testing of Final Models: Results of EUR Prediction
6. Summary and Conclusions
- The preliminary analysis based on univariate correlations indicated that none of the variables included in the dataset for this study exhibited a strong univariate correlation with the DCA-based EURs, which suggested that EUR is a complex function of multiple variables. To select the variables that accounted for most of the variation in the dataset, we performed a principal component analysis (PCA).
- The results of the PCA suggested that the TVD of the wells, formation thickness, perforated/lateral length, and completion parameters, as well as some variables related to fluid delivery potential and intrinsic reservoir properties (porosity, water saturation, and TOC) accounted for most of the variation for both the lower Eagle Ford (LEF) and upper Eagle Ford (UEF). Therefore, we used these variables to construct the ANN models.
- For both the LEF and UEF, training and testing results of optimized ANN models suggested that the approach could be promising for predicting EURs with acceptable accuracy. Indeed, besides the error results, the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) tests conducted to compare actual (DCA-based) and ANN-predicted EUR values suggested that both sets of EUR values could have been drawn from the same distribution. This suggests that the EURs predicted by the ANN models were reasonable estimates, and that the ANN approach could be useful in corroborating estimates of the EUR based on more traditional approaches.
- In addition, this approach could provide preliminary estimates of EURs for plays with extensive geological data, but with no wells or very little production history. However, the extent to which applying our approach to a hypothetical play or other plays with almost no productive history could provide reasonable predictions of the EUR would likely depend on how close of an analog the play is to the assessment units (AUs) used to source existing (DCA-based) EUR data. We also tested the sensitivities of the ANN-predictions of EUR to changes around the mean values of the input variables. The differences in the EUR predictions for the LEF were most sensitive to changes in porosity, net thickness of the interval, clay volume and the API gravity of the oil. The differences in the EUR predictions for the UEF were most sensitive to changes in the total organic carbon (TOC) and water saturation.
- The results of this sensitivity analysis indicated the importance of considering these parameters in predicting EURs for these intervals. Since the model predictions for the LEF were most sensitive to changes in a different set of parameters than that for the UEF, this could suggest that EUR predictions using this approach could vary based on the selected production interval, even within the same formation or AU. It could also suggest that using either the LEF or the UEF individually as an analog could be more appropriate for applying this method to predict the EUR of a new AU. In future work, integration of other important reservoir properties (such as permeability) or geomechanical variables (e.g., Young’s modulus) may improve the predictive capability of the ANN models developed here, but data on these additional parameters for the Eagle Ford Shale were not available to the extent necessary to consider them in this study. In addition, although we have shown that the MLP-ANN can be a useful approach, other machine learning and fuzzy-inference methods exist and could be tested for their predictive performance relative to each other to select the “best” modeling approach. Finally, this study focused on integrating data from different sources to develop MLP-based ANN models for a specific application to the Eagle Ford Shale continuous oil marl AU, and it could be useful to apply the methods developed here to other AUs.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Variable | Acronym | Unit | Min. | Max. | Mean | Std. Dev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross thickness | GT | ft | 53.7 | 189.0 | 119.7 | 21.2 |
| Net thickness | NT | ft | 23.3 | 158.3 | 98.5 | 27.2 |
| Porosity | POR | % | 5.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 0.7 |
| Water Saturation | Sw | % | 24.8 | 52.4 | 36.7 | 6.1 |
| Clay volume | Vclay | % | 6.2 | 29.3 | 15.4 | 4.2 |
| Total organic carbon | TOC | wt % | 2.3 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 0.3 |
| Ground elevation | Gr-El | ft | 208.0 | 835.0 | 432.4 | 124.2 |
| IP test flowing tubing pressure | IP_FlowTbg_Pres | psia | 25.0 | 4712.0 | 1494.4 | 911.6 |
| Oil gravity | API | API | 23.0 | 49.9 | 41.4 | 4.8 |
| IP test oil rate | IP_Test_Oil | bbl/day | 83.5 | 4250.0 | 797.1 | 542.1 |
| IP test gas rate | IP_Test_gasrate | Mscf/day | 1.0 | 5592.0 | 579.1 | 559.8 |
| IP test water rate | IP_Test_waterrate | bbl/day | 1.0 | 4866.0 | 806.6 | 870.7 |
| IP test gas oil ratio | IP_Test_GOR | scf/bbl | 2.0 | 6124.0 | 741.3 | 488.9 |
| Total drill length | Total_drill | ft | 9456.0 | 19,076.0 | 14,930.3 | 1720.7 |
| True vertical depth | TVD | ft | 4772.0 | 12,325.0 | 9011.2 | 1715.3 |
| Perforation top | Perf_top | ft | 4750.0 | 14,319.0 | 9239.2 | 1716.5 |
| Perforation bottom | Perf_bottom | ft | 9359.0 | 18,904.0 | 14,777.1 | 1715.6 |
| Perforated/lateral length | PERF | ft | 141.0 | 9938.0 | 5537.9 | 1340.6 |
| Total proppant used | Total_proppant | pounds | 51,914.0 | 18,210,000.0 | 7,490,543.5 | 3,096,755.3 |
| Total treatment fluid used | Total_treat_fluid | gallons | 79,465.0 | 26,767,856.0 | 6,213,479.4 | 3,067,203.0 |
| Formation top depth | Form Top | ft | 4733.0 | 12,189.8 | 8953.5 | 1714.6 |
| Variable | Acronym | Unit | Min. | Max. | Mean | Std. Dev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross thickness | GT | ft | 10.0 | 352.1 | 75.5 | 75.9 |
| Net thickness | NT | ft | 5.1 | 201.8 | 52.4 | 45.3 |
| Porosity | POR | % | 5.0 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 1.3 |
| Water Saturation | Sw | % | 19.2 | 50.7 | 38.6 | 7.2 |
| Clay volume | Vclay | % | 6.1 | 30.5 | 15.6 | 4.3 |
| Total organic carbon | TOC | wt % | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Ground elevation | Gr-El | ft | 206.0 | 828.4 | 422.8 | 112.9 |
| IP test flowing tubing pressure | IP_FlowTbg_Pres | psia | 2.0 | 8520.0 | 1598.6 | 995.9 |
| Oil gravity | API | API | 13.3 | 52.2 | 41.3 | 5.1 |
| IP test oil rate | IP_Test_Oil | bbl/day | 29.2 | 4138.0 | 777.4 | 535.6 |
| IP test gas rate | IP_Test_gasrate | Mscf/day | 1.0 | 6592.0 | 556.8 | 588.7 |
| IP test water rate | IP_Test_waterrate | bbl/day | 1.0 | 5009.0 | 752.5 | 830.0 |
| IP test gas oil ratio | IP_Test_GOR | scf/bbl | 4.0 | 26,866.0 | 758.9 | 942.0 |
| Total drill length | Total_drill | ft | 9810.0 | 20,594.0 | 15,204.6 | 1764.0 |
| True vertical depth | TVD | ft | 5075.0 | 12,354.0 | 8991.8 | 1615.2 |
| Perforation top | Perf_top | ft | 4267.0 | 13,609.0 | 9417.4 | 1618.4 |
| Perforation bottom | Perf_bottom | ft | 9810.0 | 20,359.0 | 15,040.8 | 1773.1 |
| Perforated/lateral length | PERF | ft | 145.0 | 11,262.0 | 5623.4 | 1260.0 |
| Total proppant used | Total_proppant | pounds | 166,958.0 | 18,318,000.0 | 7,372,399.9 | 3,031,326.0 |
| Total treatment fluid used | Total_treat_fluid | gallons | 94.0 | 18,272,150.0 | 6,225,776.6 | 2,955,197.2 |
| Formation top depth | Form Top | ft | 5165.0 | 16,453.0 | 9142.2 | 1694.3 |
| LEF | UEF | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC1R | PC2R | PC3R | PC4R | PC5R | PC1R | PC2R | PC3R | PC4R | PC5R | ||
| Variability (%) | 31.041 | 16.394 | 13.193 | 12.067 | 6.564 | Variability (%) | 33.986 | 13.176 | 11.220 | 10.357 | 10.203 |
| Cumulative % | 31.041 | 47.435 | 60.628 | 72.695 | 79.259 | Cumulative % | 33.986 | 47.162 | 58.382 | 68.740 | 78.942 |
| PC1R | PC2R | PC3R | PC4R | PC5R | PC1R | PC2R | PC3R | PC4R | PC5R | ||
| GT | −0.290 | 0.831 | 0.034 | −0.074 | −0.064 | GT | −0.843 | 0.029 | 0.358 | −0.086 | 0.136 |
| NT | −0.030 | 0.851 | 0.030 | −0.161 | 0.112 | NT | −0.665 | −0.045 | 0.424 | −0.001 | 0.425 |
| POR | 0.193 | 0.069 | −0.186 | 0.087 | 0.827 | POR | 0.515 | −0.189 | −0.521 | 0.114 | 0.318 |
| Sw | −0.549 | −0.338 | −0.013 | 0.036 | −0.592 | Sw | −0.395 | 0.103 | −0.277 | −0.162 | −0.714 |
| Vclay | 0.428 | −0.713 | −0.093 | 0.212 | −0.138 | Vclay | 0.684 | 0.032 | −0.237 | −0.002 | −0.534 |
| TOC | −0.657 | 0.409 | 0.083 | −0.211 | −0.009 | TOC | 0.024 | −0.055 | −0.076 | −0.030 | 0.872 |
| Gr-El | −0.840 | 0.251 | 0.165 | −0.084 | −0.029 | Gr-El | −0.812 | 0.107 | 0.134 | −0.103 | 0.126 |
| IP_FlowTbg_Pres | 0.625 | 0.364 | 0.012 | 0.056 | 0.238 | IP_FlowTbg_Pres | 0.585 | −0.006 | 0.453 | −0.038 | 0.218 |
| API | 0.322 | 0.736 | −0.147 | 0.245 | 0.133 | API | 0.221 | −0.060 | 0.873 | 0.038 | 0.104 |
| IP_Test_Oil | 0.262 | −0.173 | 0.150 | 0.807 | 0.138 | IP_Test_Oil | 0.332 | 0.095 | 0.026 | 0.786 | 0.085 |
| IP_Test_gasrate | 0.346 | 0.120 | −0.028 | 0.740 | −0.021 | IP_Test_gasrate | 0.316 | −0.015 | 0.362 | 0.743 | 0.137 |
| IP_Test_waterrate | 0.065 | −0.425 | 0.235 | 0.631 | −0.084 | IP_Test_waterrate | 0.053 | 0.181 | −0.331 | 0.723 | −0.120 |
| IP_Test_GOR | 0.261 | 0.503 | −0.193 | 0.272 | −0.395 | IP_Test_GOR | 0.059 | −0.086 | 0.503 | 0.170 | 0.007 |
| Total_drill | 0.836 | 0.016 | 0.501 | −0.014 | 0.037 | Total_drill | 0.776 | 0.567 | 0.135 | 0.028 | 0.134 |
| TVD | 0.935 | −0.040 | −0.142 | 0.228 | 0.106 | TVD | 0.930 | −0.091 | 0.202 | 0.189 | 0.122 |
| Perf_top | 0.918 | −0.044 | −0.172 | 0.223 | 0.069 | Perf_top | 0.929 | −0.085 | 0.196 | 0.180 | 0.129 |
| Perf_bottom | 0.832 | 0.011 | 0.506 | −0.002 | 0.034 | Perf_bottom | 0.775 | 0.572 | 0.133 | 0.033 | 0.138 |
| PERF | −0.111 | 0.070 | 0.868 | −0.288 | −0.044 | PERF | −0.103 | 0.914 | −0.064 | −0.186 | 0.029 |
| Total_proppant | −0.121 | −0.056 | 0.840 | 0.365 | −0.067 | Total_proppant | −0.055 | 0.776 | −0.111 | 0.382 | −0.203 |
| Total_treat_fluid | 0.098 | −0.059 | 0.718 | 0.368 | −0.124 | Total_treat_fluid | −0.013 | 0.736 | 0.030 | 0.333 | −0.215 |
| Form Top | 0.935 | −0.047 | −0.144 | 0.228 | 0.106 | Form Top | 0.941 | −0.087 | 0.164 | 0.178 | 0.126 |
| LEF Model (MSE) | UEF Model (MSE) | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HL1 | Error | HL2 | Error | Momentum | Error | HL1 | Error | HL2 | Error | HL3 | Error | Momentum | Error |
| 21 | 0.00754 | 17 | 0.00695 | 0.5 | 0.00614 | 40 | 0.01987 | 34 | 0.02058 | 22 | 0.02021 | 0.5 | 0.01967 |
| 23 | 0.00687 | 19 | 0.00655 | 0.6 | 0.00609 | 42 | 0.01950 | 36 | 0.01980 | 24 | 0.02215 | 0.6 | 0.01698 |
| 25 | 0.00564 | 21 | 0.00643 | 0.7 | 0.00614 | 44 | 0.01753 | 38 | 0.01813 | 26 | 0.01985 | 0.7 | 0.02111 |
| 27 | 0.00620 | 23 | 0.00746 | 0.8 | 0.00640 | 46 | 0.02030 | 40 | 0.01938 | 28 | 0.02085 | 0.8 | 0.01990 |
| 29 | 0.00673 | 25 | 0.00757 | 0.9 | 0.00638 | 48 | 0.01774 | 42 | 0.01932 | 30 | 0.02122 | 0.9 | 0.01992 |
| LEF Model | UEF Model | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| MSE | 2001.5 | MSE | 2721.8 |
| NMSE | 0.46 | NMSE | 0.51 |
| MAE (×103 bbl) | 36.6 | MAE (×103 bbl) | 37.0 |
| Min. Abs. Error (×103 bbl) | 2.75 | Min. Abs. Error (×103 bbl) | 0.09 |
| Max. Abs. Error (×103 bbl) | 116.2 | Max. Abs. Error (×103 bbl) | 272.9 |
| LEF Model | UEF Model | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Testing Data (×103 bbl) | Actual Testing Data (×103 bbl) | ||
| Minimum | 13.27 | MSE | 24.43 |
| Maximum | 305.51 | NMSE | 415.68 |
| Mean | 150.53 | MAE (×103 bbl) | 159.32 |
| Standard deviation | 67.78 | Min. Abs. Error (×103 bbl) | 73.53 |
| Predicted Data (×103 bbl) | Predicted Data (×103 bbl) | ||
| Minimum | 27.81 | MSE | 33.92 |
| Maximum | 340.38 | NMSE | 301.52 |
| Mean | 156.05 | MAE (×103 bbl) | 156.42 |
| Standard deviation | 59.75 | Min. Abs. Error (×103 bbl) | 58.28 |
| Kolmogorov–Smirnov Test | Kolmogorov–Smirnov Test | ||
| d | 0.129 | d | 0.125 |
| p | 0.685 | p | 0.307 |
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Share and Cite
Karacan, C.Ö.; Anderson, S.T.; Cahan, S.M. Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) Prediction for Eagle Ford Shale Using Integrated Datasets and Artificial Neural Networks. Energies 2025, 18, 5216. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18195216
Karacan CÖ, Anderson ST, Cahan SM. Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) Prediction for Eagle Ford Shale Using Integrated Datasets and Artificial Neural Networks. Energies. 2025; 18(19):5216. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18195216
Chicago/Turabian StyleKaracan, C. Özgen, Steven T. Anderson, and Steven M. Cahan. 2025. "Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) Prediction for Eagle Ford Shale Using Integrated Datasets and Artificial Neural Networks" Energies 18, no. 19: 5216. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18195216
APA StyleKaracan, C. Ö., Anderson, S. T., & Cahan, S. M. (2025). Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) Prediction for Eagle Ford Shale Using Integrated Datasets and Artificial Neural Networks. Energies, 18(19), 5216. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18195216

