External Costs to Agriculture Associated with Further Open Pit Lignite Mining from the Bełchatów Deposit

Abstract

The energy crisis in Europe and Poland caused by the conflict in Ukraine has renewed the debate in some countries about the wisdom of abandoning the use of local fossil fuels. The rise in gas and oil prices with little change in the cost of extracting lignite from open pit mines has led to a renewed consideration of lignite as the cheapest source of energy. This is not entirely true, as the level of costs at power plants ignores many external costs that are not included in the costs of energy producers, but are borne by the general public or other parties. One such cost is the external costs incurred by agriculture as a result of open pit lignite mining and the associated depression funnels. The Bełchatów lignite open pit is the deepest open pit in Europe and is expected to be in operation by 2038. The aim of the study was to assess the external costs that farmers will incur as a result of further open pit mining of brown call from the Bełchatów deposit, i.e., between 2023 and 2038 as well as in the 16-year extended period of restoration of water relations around the open pit. The decrease in crop yields and animal numbers was estimated in a comparative analysis, which compared changes in the yields of selected plants and animals in the area affected by the open pit to those in neighboring areas that were not affected. The analysis showed that the external costs to be borne by agriculture as a result of the further exploitation of the Bełchatów deposit will amount to an average of EUR 2.90 billion, and, depending on the calculation variant, from EUR 2.51 billion to EUR 3.14 billion. Including this amount in the cost of electricity production would result in an increase of EUR 9.11·MWh⁻¹, which is 18.8% of the average wholesale price of electricity in Poland in 2017–2021. On the one hand, the increased consumption of lignite in electricity production, which is currently observed and may last for several years, may shorten the life of the open pit by up to 2 years. Shortening the mining period by one year, assuming that all the coal in the deposit is mined, will reduce the external costs for agriculture by about EUR 185 million, i.e., EUR 0.58·MWh⁻¹. On the other hand, the increase in European Emissions Trading System (ETS) prices, the decrease in gas prices and the increase in energy production from renewable energy source (RES) will make lignite power generation profitable only during the periods with the highest prices, so that by 2038 lignite will not be mined in its entirety. Every 10 Gg of coal that will not be mined by 2038 will result in an increase in external costs in agriculture per MWh of EUR 0.23·MWh⁻¹.

1. Introduction

Europe has been facing an energy crisis since the second half of 2021, triggered by Russia’s reduction in gas exports to EU countries to the contractual minimum. It was exacerbated by the embargo imposed by many countries on energy imports from Russia as a result of Russia–Ukraine Conflict. The crisis has renewed discussion about the appropriateness of the EU’s abandonment of local fossil fuels. In 2021, the share of gas from Russia in the EU’s total gas imports was 155 billion cubic meters (bcm), or 39.7% of total imports compared to 38.4% in 2020, and for oil it was 25.9% vs. 25.7%, respectively [1]. However, the dependence of individual EU countries varied, as five EU countries did not buy Russian gas, and in another three the share did not exceed 10.0% of imported gas. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic and Latvia obtained all of their imported gas from Russia, and Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria obtained 95.0%, 85.4% and 75.2%, respectively. The largest customer of Russian gas (Germany) obtained 55.0% of its imports from Russia. The high and growing dependence on imports of energy resources, supplemented by increasing imports mainly from Russia, resulted not only from development, but also from the EU’s accelerating shift away from solid fossil fuels, which were to be temporarily replaced by gas.

Since joining the EU, Poland has been the main opponent of implementing increasingly ambitious solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The main argument was the large reserves of hard coal and lignite, which for successive governments were the “black gold” guaranteeing Poland’s energy security. It was not until 2021 that Poland’s energy policy made a breakthrough, with several decisions at the business and, above all, political level. First, in February 2021, the published Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 (EPP2040) [2] abandoned the development of new solid-fuel-based power capacity and the exploitation of new lignite deposits, leaving the decision to launch new deposits to interested companies. By June 2021, potential investors had finally abandoned investment in the new deposits of Ościsłowo and Złoczew despite the highly advanced preparatory work [3,4]. Second, after decades of indecision, a final decision was made to build three nuclear power plants in Poland. The first, under an agreement signed on 15 December 2022, with Westinghouse Electric Company, is to be built by 2033 and is to be financed mostly with public funds. The second, on the other hand, is to be built with the participation of PGE (a majority state-owned power company), ZE PAK (a Polish private company) and Korea’s KHNP (as a technology provider) near a closed open pit lignite mine in central Poland. The contract for the construction of this power plant is expected to be signed in mid-2023. Third, in May 2021, a social agreement was signed with trade unions on the principles and pace of the mining transformation. This is the first document in Poland’s history to set precise deadlines for closing more coal mines by 2049. Europe’s largest coking coal producer, JSW, was excluded from the agreement. On the one hand, this period should be considered too long, but on the other hand, by 2040, EUR 350 billion, or about 3.5% of Polish gross domestic product (GDP) [5], will have to be spent on modernizing the energy sector and zero-emission power plants, so a fairly long transition period is needed. Among other things, it is planned to continue (until 2038) the exploitation of lignite from Europe’s deepest open pit mine, Bełchatów, which is supplied to the Bełchatów power plant. It is also Europe’s largest polluter, which is why environmental organizations have been calling for its closure for years. The years-long draining of the Bełchatów deposit has led to the drying of large areas around the open pit, causing a decline in crop and livestock levels there. Prolonged mining exacerbates water shortages and extends the period during which water relations around the open pit are destroyed. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to estimate the external costs that agriculture will incur as a result of further open pit brown coal mining from the Bełchatów deposit, i.e., between 2023 and 2038 as well as in the 16-year extended period of restoration of water relations around the open pit.

2. Energy Crisis and Electricity Production in Poland

Despite the advancing green energy revolution in the European Union, Poland is the only country in the EU with a dominant share of hard coal and lignite in electricity production. In 2021, they accounted for 53.6% and 26.1% of electricity produced, respectively, compared to 47.0% and 24.9% a year earlier [6]. The increase in the importance of coal in the energy mix was largely due to cyclical factors, the completion of overhauls at coal-fired power plants, the commissioning of what is likely to be the last coal-fired unit in Poland, and the energy crisis in the EU, which led to a several-fold increase in electricity prices in the EU and a return to the profitability of burning coal and lignite. This was primarily due to the increase in gas prices on the European market to levels exceeding EUR 100·MWh⁻¹, and even EUR 300·MWh⁻¹ in 2022. Meanwhile, in mines owned by nearby power plants, the cost of lignite mining has increased slightly. This has made lignite power the cheapest at the corporate operating level, despite the increase in ETS allowance prices to similar to EUR 100·MgCO₂⁻¹. Rebalancing the European gas market requires significant structural investment primarily in liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and time. However, it should be remembered that gas from LNG will be more expensive than gas imported from Russia via pipelines, so gas prices in Europe are likely to be higher than they were by 2020.

3. External Costs in Agriculture

Unfortunately, statements suggesting that lignite-sourced energy has become the cheapest source of energy are not true, as they consider only the costs incurred by the power plant operator, but do not take into account external costs. Fisher and Voss [7] defined external costs in the electricity generation process as all the negative impacts associated with the technology of electricity generation—including the preceding and following stages of the process, such as the construction and dismantling of the power plant, the acquisition and transportation of energy resources, and the disposal of waste—which are not paid for by the producer, but by the general public or other parties. A more comprehensive treatment of external costs is found in the ExternE module of the EcoSense software package, which considers a range of impacts on health, infrastructure, biodiversity and crops, using response functions for concentrations of, for example, SO₂, NO_x and their aerosols, heavy metals, and particulate matter (PM_2.5, PM₁₀) [8,9], indicating that it is limited only to the external costs associated with the combustion process and the eventual transport of raw material to the power plant. Only a handful of analyses take into account losses resulting from the occupation of agricultural land by open pits, power plants and associated facilities, and related external costs resulting from the loss of profits for farmers [10,11]. In contrast, the costs associated with geological damage [12] and those associated with open pit coal and lignite mining, which leads to, among other things, dust and noise, but most importantly, the drainage of the land around the open pits due to the resulting funnel of depression, are completely ignored.

There are two types of depression funnel: drying and relaxation. The first one is the result of gravitational lowering of the groundwater table around the exploited deposit. It has the shape of a funnel, i.e., at the edge of the open pit the water table rises rapidly while with increasing distance the groundwater level rises more and more slowly. In the case of open pits, depending on the depth of the drainage, its range is several kilometers from the edge of the open pit. It has the shape of an ellipse, which moves with the mining front. In Poland, a depression funnel is defined as an area where the permanent lowering of the water table exceeds one meter. In practice, the area of impact on the surrounding area is much larger because any lowering of the water table, including below one meter, has a negative impact on agriculture, forestry and the natural environment.

On the other hand, a stress funnel is formed due to a decrease in groundwater pressure. Due to changes in water pressure through hydrogeological windows, this leads to the formation of local depression funnels even several kilometers away from the main area of the depression funnel. Therefore, the area of the stress funnel is many times larger than the area of the depression funnel [13,14].

Any lowering of the water table is of great importance to agriculture and forestry, as subsoil water is a significant source of water for plants during the growing season. This is particularly evident during summer periods, when droughts are particularly common. Studies indicate that during periods of drought with good groundwater availability, the contribution of groundwater to water uptake by plants can reach 50–100% [15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22]. Since the amount of water taken up by plants increases in proportion to dry matter yield [23], any, even slight, reduction in the water table can translate into a decrease in yield potential and subsequent reduction in yield. Yield sensitivity depends on a number of geological, soil, natural–climatic, temporal–spatial and technological factors, which are interdependent and intermingle in many aspects.

The distance of a given crop field from the edge of the open pit and the depth and timing of the drainage are crucial, as they determine the depth of the water table to the greatest extent. The geological structure of the drained structures and the quality of the soils are also very important. Particularly important is the presence or not of impermeable layers and their slope, as well as the number and size of hydrological windows, which can result in the occurrence of local basins in which groundwater will remain or the outflow of water to deeper layers will be slowed. In the context under consideration, soil quality is also important, as it affects the water storage capacity that will be used by crops during periods of lower water supply from rainfall. In addition, the level of impact of the open pit in each year will be different due to varying natural–climatic conditions, including, in particular, the amount and distribution of precipitation, temperatures, etc. The last group is technological factors, which are influenced by farmers. These include tillage operations, which can weaken or intensify adverse effects resulting from groundwater drainage, the sensitivity of cultivated plants/varieties to water scarcity, and the intensity of production. The complexity of the processes taking place as a result of open pit coal mining is discussed in more detail in the study by Peplinski and Czubak [3].

4. Characteristics of the Bełchatów Deposit

The Bełchatów open pit is one of the deepest open pit lignite mines in the world, with two fields separated by a salt seep: Bełchatów and Szczerców. The average depth of the pit is 280 m, but in the context of drainage and the formation of a depression funnel, the key is the maximum depth of the extracted coal, which is as deep as 352 m (

Table 1. Geological characteristics of the Bełchatów deposit.

Deposit Name	Overburden Thickness (m)			Coal Thickness (m)			Depth of the Deposit Floor (m b.g.l. *)
	Min.	Average	Max.	Min.	Average	Max.	Min.	Average	Max.
Bełchatów—field Bełchatów	0.0	24.3	158.8	3.0	55.1	230.5	3.0	79.5	245.5
Bełchatów—field Szczerców	7.6	119.5	239.8	8.9	50.3	196.1	65	171.1	351.7

Source: [24]. * m b.g.l.: meters below ground level.

). This means that the lowering of the original groundwater table in the mining area near the deepest point of the pit will be a minimum of 352 m. Since mining begins at the point where the coal seams are closest to the surface, as mining proceeds, there is a gradual deepening of the drainage of the deposit leading to a widening of the drainage area. The total reserves of the deposit were 1800 Gg, and were located in two deposits called the Bełchatów field (1100 Gg) and Szczerców field (720 Gg). By the end of 2021, more than 1350 Gg of coal had been extracted, and about 450 Gg remained to be mined. The dewatering of the deposit in the Bełchatów field began in 1975, and mining began at the end of 1980. Currently, small amounts of lignite are being extracted from the side walls of the pit, which is expected to be completed by 2026.

The dewatering of the Szczerców field began in 2000 and mining began in 2008 and is expected to continue until around 2038 [24,25]. Current and planned increases in lignite mining in the coming years with higher gas prices expected in the coming years may accelerate the end of mining until 2036. To date, a total of nearly 100 square kilometers has been taken out of service, with the open pits in the Bełchatów and Szczerców fields accounting for nearly 60 square kilometers and the power plant and other necessary infrastructure accounting for more than 10 square kilometers. The construction of the access trenches resulted in the creation of external dumps with a total area of 26.4 square kilometers, which were recultivated for forestry and recreation [25,26,27]. Reclamation plans also provide for the non-agricultural development of the end pits of the two fields. Among other things, recreational and industrial areas will be created, as well as a lake on an area of about 3250 hectares, whose maximum depth will reach about 100 m, and the remaining areas will be forested. The process of shallowing the bottom is expected to take at least 10 years, and it is expected to take another 20 years (until about 2070) to fill the lake [28]. The restoration of the water table around the analyzed open pit without additional supply will take until about 2110, indicating that the drainage period will last about 73 years, and the restoration of water table to a state close to the original is expected to be completed after about 62 years. Reducing this period by about 15 years will be possible if the lakes are filled with water from outside. However, filling the final reservoir with water does not end the process of water runoff, since the final reservoir is below the original level of the water table by several tens of meters; therefore, it will take much longer to achieve steady-state conditions, i.e., constant water flow. For the Bełchatów open pit, it is expected to require an additional 60 years [29,30]. If exploitation of the Bełchatów deposit had been completed in 2022, after taking into account the time for bottoming out, the restoration of water relations would be completed after 46 years, or by about 2078. Thus, the period of drainage of the deposit would be shortened by 16 years and the restoration of water relations would also be shortened by 16 years.

Crucial to the environment and agriculture are water losses associated with open pit dewatering. From the beginning of the open pit operation until 2017, 9.3 bcm of water was pumped out, resulting in an average waterlogging rate of 7.96 m³·Mg⁻¹ against an average of 6.8 m³·Mg⁻¹ for all Polish lignite open pits. In 2017 alone, 0.2 bcm was pumped out, resulting in a waterlogging rate of 4.71 m³·Mg⁻¹ [25]. With the moving mining front and changes in drainage levels in conjunction with soil conditions, precipitation, etc., the area of the depression funnel has been subject to constant changes [31].

In 1976–2004, the average area of the groundwater dewatering (i.e., the area where there has been a permanent lowering of the water table by more than 1.0 m) was 438 square kilometers, but in 1992 it was as high as 635 square kilometers, and the depression funnel had the shape of an ellipse with dimensions of 20 km (S–N axis) and 40 km (W–E axis). Since 2000, when the dewatering of the Szczerców deposit was launched, there was a rapid development of the depression funnel in the western direction increasing the drainage area by 5 km in each direction, so that the maximum area increased to about 800 square kilometers [24,29,32]. Maps showing water relations around the Bełchatów deposit also indicate the occurrence of numerous large hydrological windows causing groundwater outflow to deeper layers due to the lowering of water pressure (the pressure relief cone), which lead to the formation of local areas with a lowered groundwater table [31].

Analyzes changes in grain and potato yields for areas around the Bełchatów deposit and are compared with changes in the yields of these crops for areas in the Konin Basin. It is located about 110 km northwest of the Bełchatów deposit. It is a multi-well basin with small lignite deposits with reserves of mostly up to 100 Mg. Coal is usually deposited at a depth of 50–70 m. Mining there has been carried out since 1958 simultaneously in several open pits, so data on yield changes due to the impact of the open pits are available for 40 years. Detailed information on the deposit and external costs for the Konin deposits was provided by Peplinski and Czubak.

5. Materials and Methods

The multiplicity of factors taken into account, the large area of influence, the variability of weather conditions and the large number of farmers growing different crops, in a variety of technologies, with different levels of intensity, combined with the passage of time, which means that farmers have access to increasingly efficient crop varieties, makes the precise estimation of crop production losses in a given field much more difficult, and in fact impossible. This is due to the high variability in crop yields experienced by agriculture around the world. However, it is possible to estimate the level of agricultural losses using comparative analysis, i.e., by comparing changes in yield levels in the regions affected by open pits with average changes in the country, macro-region or regions nearest to the area of influence of the analyzed open pit.

Additionally, in the case of livestock production, many factors affect the level of livestock, but one of the most important is the availability of feed. Lower yields mean a reduction in the amount of available feed for livestock production. In regions with a fairly high degree of agricultural fragmentation, where the share of feed produced on one’s own farm is highest, this leads to a decrease in animal stocking rates comparable to the decrease in yield levels. Ruminant production (cattle and sheep) is most affected. A smaller depopulation of animal stock occurs on large-scale farms, which most often base their production on industrial feed. In the case of an individual farm, it is difficult to estimate the impact of an exploited open pit on farmers’ decisions to abandon, reduce, maintain or increase the current scale of production. However, it is possible, as in the case of crop production, to conduct comparative analyses for specific regions.

In the first studies, comparative analyses were used in estimating agricultural losses, but a number of simplifications were adopted, since, among other things, the same level of decline in yields and animal production was assumed throughout the period of impact of the analyzed open pits [33,34,35]. Such an analysis poses the risk of underestimating or overestimating external costs. Subsequent studies carried out in this area have already taken into account changes in yield levels during the period of impact of open pits. The first study focused on a multi-pit lignite basin in central Poland, where open pit coal mining has been carried out for more than 60 years and is likely to end by 2026 [3], while another study focused on the planned Złoczew lignite open pit [4].

Estimating the external cost to agriculture as a result of continued lignite mining requires taking into account the area with a lowered water table (also lower than 1.0 m), which will be referred to as the “area of depression funnel” or “area of influence of the open pit” in the remainder of the paper. In the case of crop production, the external cost to agriculture in this area will be the value of lost harvests of crop products due to reduced yields. This is due to the fact that the farmer, regardless of the yield, has to pay almost all the costs, i.e., carry out all the crop harvesting, plant protection, and fertilization, but his income will decrease as a result of the impact of the opencast, because instead of, for example, 7.0 Mg·ha⁻¹ of grain he will harvest only 5.5 Mg·ha⁻¹. In the case of animal production, there is a reduction in the number of animals, so the external cost here will be the lost income from this activity, which in Polish conditions is estimated at 25% [34]. The calculation will not take into account losses resulting from the abandonment of agricultural production in the area occupied by the open pit, the external dump and the necessary coexisting infrastructure. Agricultural production will also no longer be carried out in this area after the end of the open pit operation, so the period of the deposit’s operation does not affect agricultural production.

In this study, in crop production, grain and potato yields were analyzed, as a consequence of the availability of yield and acreage statistics for the entire period under study. In livestock production, the following were analyzed: cattle, cows, pigs and sows, i.e., animals whose feeding in Poland is based mostly on feed produced on their own farms.

Since the purpose of the study is to analyze the external costs in agriculture resulting from the further exploitation of lignite from the Bełchatów deposit, the analysis will cover 32 years. This period includes 16 years, i.e., the years 2023–2038 which provide for further exploitation of the Bełchatów deposit, and an additional 16 years, which include an additional period of restoration of the water table around the open pit resulting from the extended drainage of the deposit.

The analyses estimating external costs in agricultural production involved using data from a series of statistical yearbooks of the Polish Central Statistical Office, such as the Statistical Yearbook of Voivodeships, Yearbook, Statistical Yearbook of Regions, Statistical Yearbooks of Individual Voivodeships and others [36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46].

The research was conducted in a multivariate manner, due to the availability of data and the administrative reforms carried out in Poland. The basic calculation was carried out at the level of voivodeships according to the administrative division in use in 1975–1998, when Poland had 49 separate voivodeships (compared to 16 currently, which are the smallest units for which yield data are currently available). Three groups of voivodeships were distinguished in the estimation of crop losses in the area drained by the Bełchatów opencast:

• Group I includes only Piotrków Voivodeship, where the Bełchatów open pit is located;
• Group II includes the Sieradz and Częstochowa voivodeships located closest to the Bełchatów open pits;
• Group III includes the rest of the six voivodeships located at an average distance of up to around 100 km from the Bełchatów opencast, namely Kalisz, Kielce, Opole, Plock, Radom and Skierniewice. In the remainder of the paper, we will use the phrase “reference area” for this area.

For crop production, the analysis was completed in 1997, because since 1998, as a result of the new administrative, the number of provinces has been reduced from 49 to 16. Therefore, it is not possible to assess the impact of the Bełchatów open pit on crop production because of the yield values given for larger areas. Since the analysis of externalities for agriculture for the Bełchatów deposit was intended to cover the period when the effects of dehydration had already become fully apparent, the rate of yield decline in the areas of influence of the Bełchatów opencast was compared with the rate of yield decline in the areas of influence of the open pits areas in the Konin lignite basin published by Pepliński and Czubak [3]. Five-year averages were used in the analysis of yield changes, which helped reduce variability in yields related to weather factors.

The analyses of external costs in livestock production involved data on livestock populations in county areas for the years 1973, 1996, 2002, 2010 and 2020. These data were used to calculate livestock populations of the analyzed animal species in areas corresponding to the area of voivodships for the division in effect in 1975–1998, divided into 3 groups of voivodships, as in the case of crop production. Since more detailed data are available from public statistics, i.e., at the district level, and are available from public statistics, only livestock production was analyzed for changes in cattle (excluding cows), cows, pigs (excluding sows) and sows in the five circles of counties designated around the Bełchatów open pit (Figure 1):

• In the first circle labeled “up to 20 km” is the Bełchatów district, where the Bełchatów opencast is located;
• In the second circle are 2 districts located at a distance of 21–40 km from the open pit to the center of the districts;
• In the third circle are 5 districts located at a distance of 41–60 km from the open pit to the center of the districts;
• In the fourth circle are 5 districts located at a distance of 61–80 km from the open pit to the center of the districts;
• In the fifth circle are 12 districts located at a distance of 81–100 km from the open pit to the center of the district, which will be the reference area for the other circles.

Figure 1. Impact circles of the Bełchatów open pit.

Figure 1. Impact circles of the Bełchatów open pit.

In order to calculate external costs in crop production resulting from open pit lignite mining at the Bełchatów open pit, the methodology of Peplinski and Czubak [3] was used. In this study, the costs incurred by agriculture were estimated for two areas of the depression cone: “Area I”, i.e., for agricultural land from voivodships in Group I and “Area II”, i.e., for agricultural land from voivodships in Group II.

External costs for livestock production were estimated by comparing changes in cattle, cows, pigs and sows, as well as the number of these animals converted into a large size unit (LSU) in designated groups of provinces and districts from designated circles. A LSU is a 500 kg head. The indicators provided by Eurostat were used to calculate the LSU [47]. The reduction in livestock resulting from the startup of the Bełchatów open pit was calculated for individual years and was calculated from the following formula [4]:

$$S{L}_i=100-\frac{100+LSU{d}_i}{100+LS{U}_i}\times 100,$$

where

• SL_i—the amount of livestock losses (%);
• LSUd_i—the change in the analyzed groups of animals in expressed in LSU in the analyzed area of influence of the open pit in the i-th year in relation to that in 1975 (%). In the study, losses in “Area I” and “Area II” and sectors 1–4 will be estimated separately;
• LSU_i—the change in the size of the livestock of the analyzed animal groups expressed in LSU in the reference area, i.e., “Area III” and sector 5, in the i-th year in relation to that in 1975 (%).

External costs in animal production in the depression cone area were calculated according to the following formula [4]:

$$E{c}_{zf}={{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{S}_i\frac{S{L}_i}{100}\times P{r}_i\times t\times p_i\times P_i,$$

where

• Ec_zf—external costs in animal production;
• S_i—the average livestock level of the i-th group of animals in the analyzed area (number of animals);
• SL_i—calculated livestock losses over the entire period of impact of the open pit (%);
• Pr_i—annual unit productivity of the analyzed animal groups (kg of beef/pork livestock, litres of milk, and piglets),
• t—time of the open pit’s impact (years);
• p_i—the average selling price of an animal product (e.g., USD or EUR × kg⁻¹).
• P_i—profitability of production of the i-th animal product (%). It is possible to take the average profitability of animal production in a region.

In estimating the external costs borne by farmers and resulting from the further exploitation of the Bełchatów open pit, the most recent statistics from the Central Statistical Office [46] were used. Since the possible abandonment of the Bełchatów deposit in 2022 would shorten the completion of the process of restoration of water relations from 2110 to 2078, the time when the impact of the open pit is greatest, and therefore the losses in crops and livestock are the greatest, will be extended. It is therefore necessary to assume the amount of losses from the last available period. The calculations assume the following:

• The average sowing structure from 2017–2021 for the analyzed areas;
• The agriculture land (AL) area from 2021 adjusted in subsequent years by average changes in AL area from 2012–2021;
• Average selling prices of agricultural plant and animal products in 2017–2021 (

  Table 2. Technical and financial assumptions used in estimating external costs.

  Specification	Change in Crop Acreage		Current Yield		Losses		Annual Change in Yield		Selling Price
  	Group I	Group II	Group I	Group II	Group I	Group II	Variant II	Variant III	All Variants
  Units	%	%	Mg·ha−1	Mg·ha−1	%	%	%	%	PLN ·Mg−1
  Cereals	−1.09	−0.83	3.62	3.82	20.5	15.0	0.88	1.11	694.0
  Potato	−1.09	−0.83	26.3	25.6	8.5	6.1	0.88	1.11	456.6
  Specification	Stock change		Current annual production		Losses		Annual change in productivity		Selling price
  	up to 20 km	20–40 km	up to 20 km	20–40 km	up to 20 km	20–40 km	Variant II	Variant III	All variants
  Units	%	%	kg; l; piglets·unit−1	kg; l; piglets·unit−1	%	%	%	%	PLN ·kg; l; pcs−1
  Live beef	−2.65	−1.71	330	330	23.7	33.1	0.52	0.52	6.658
  Milk	−2.65	−1.71	6136	6136	23.7	33.1	2.09	0.19	1.408
  Live pork	−0.76	1.06	220	220	23.7	33.1	0.52	0.52	4.968
  Piglets	−0.76	1.06	21.5	21.5	23.7	33.1	1.81	0.84	190.23

  Source: own calculation.

  );
• Three variants of yield changes. Variant I considers the average yield of cereals and potatoes in 2017–2021. In variant II, the yield level from 2017–2021 is adjusted in subsequent years by the average rate of change in productivity in the area of influence of the Bełchatów opencast in 1989–2021. In variant III, however, the rate of increase in yields is taken into account based on the rate of change in yields in the two most important German states for agriculture: North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony from 1989 to 2021 [48] (Table 2);
• Three variants of changes in the cattle population (without cows), cows, pigs (without sows) and sows and their productivity. Variant I assumed the 2021 livestock population and productivity, while in the second variant the 2021 livestock population and productivity were adjusted in subsequent years by the average rate of change in livestock and productivity from 1989 to 2021. Variant III took into account the average rate of change in livestock and productivity in North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony from 1989 to 2021 [48] (Table 2).

The analysis assumed average purchase prices of the last available years and was not subject to adjustment for subsequent years of analysis. Analyses conducted for the Polish market show that the purchase prices of the products used in the analysis over the past 20 years in real terms have not shown a significant downward trend, and some have even had a slight upward trend. Therefore, no discounting of estimated external costs was carried out.

6. Results

Analysis of the statistical data (

Table 3. Yields of the analyzed crops and changes in yields depending on the location of the provincial groups in relation to the Bełchatów deposit.

Group	Average Yield in 1971–1975		Average Yield in 1993–1997		Dynamic [%]
	Years [Mg·ha−1]		Years [Mg·ha−1]
	Cereal	Potato	Cereal	Potato	Cereal	Potato
Group I	21.8	162.1	24.1	170.4	110.7	105.1
Group II	24.3	187.3	25.1	175.4	103.2	93.7
Group III	28.5	196.6	34.6	216.2	121.5	110.0

Sources: [36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45].

and Figure 2) indicates that with the development of the depression funnel, there was a systematic decrease in grain and potato yields in the area of influence of the Bełchatów opencast. Unfortunately, as a result of administrative changes, data at an appropriate level of detail are available only up to 1997, so the results obtained partly take into account the impact of the drainage resulting from the exploitation of the Bełchatów field and do not take into account the drainage of the Szczerców field. Statistical data up to this period indicate that as a result of the start of drainage and exploitation of the Bełchatów deposit, the growth dynamics of grain and potato yields in the area of influence of the open pit was significantly lower than that in the reference areas that did not experience land drainage. Surprisingly, the lowest yield increase and, in the case of potatoes, even a decrease in yields in the voivodeships of Group II was observed, the latter being due to the decrease in yields of the analyzed crops in the Sieradz Voivodeship. This is related to the fact that agriculture from this voivodeship in the southern part was affected by the Bełchatów deposit, and in the northwestern part yields were negatively affected by depression cones formed as a result of lignite mining from open pits in the Konin Basin located near Turek. Grain and potato yields in the province were 2.2% and 7.7% lower in 1993–1997 than those in 1971–1975.

The full effects of drainage from the Bełchatów deposit became apparent only a dozen years after the start of drainage from the Szczerców field in 2000, when the area of the depression cone reached its maximum extent. In order to estimate the dynamics of changes in yield levels in the area of influence of the Bełchatów open pit, Figure 1 compares changes in yield levels in the area of influence of the Bełchatów open pit and the Konin Basin open pits in successive years after the start of drainage in relation to the period immediately before the start of drainage. For the Konin Basin, the base period was that of the average yields of 1956–1960, and for the Bełchatów deposit it was that of the average yields of 1971–1975, while the last period of analysis for both deposits was 1993–1997. The scale of the yield decline in areas of groups I and II relative to yield changes in area of group III (which was not subject to the impact of the open pits) in each open pit varied (Figure 2). For the Bełchatów open pit, yield decreases were already evident in the areas of groups I and II of the impact area from the first years after the start of the drainage, while in the case of the Konin open pits, these were only in the area of group I. There is also a noticeable reduction in yield reductions in the recent years of the analysis for the Bełchatów deposit and Konin deposits, which was due to a faster increase in yield levels in the areas around the open pits in 1995–1997. These years were characterized by better-than-average natural and climatic conditions, so water shortages in the areas of influence of the open pits were less noticeable for crops. In the years following the start of the drainage for the Konin deposits, the decline in yields worsened and amounted to more than 20% for cereals and more than 15% for potatoes in the area of group I in several periods, and was about 10% for the area of group II. This indicates that the decline in yields of the analyzed crops also worsened in subsequent years. In the case of the Bełchatów deposit, this process probably also occurred, perhaps to an even greater extent due to the start of the drainage of the Szczerców field in 2000. This is confirmed by the fact that the current Lodz Voivodeship, in which the Bełchatów open pit is located, after 1997 obtained increasingly lower yields in relation to the national average [46].

The objectivity of the analysis requires the adoption of the most likely level of yield reduction, or a variant in which the level of yield reduction is similar to or even lower than the most likely level. Therefore, in order to determine the external costs associated with extending the operation of the Bełchatów deposit until 2038, the period of the average level of yield decrease for the Konin deposits in the last 10 years for which data are available, i.e., 1988–1997, was adopted. For the area of group I, it was assumed that the yield decrease would be 20.5% for cereals and 15.0% for potatoes, and for the area of group II, these values would be 8.5% and 6.1%, respectively.

The impact of reduced feed on livestock largely depends on the livestock production model. As a general rule, as herd size increases, the share of purchased feed increases and the share of feed produced on one’s own farm decreases. Unfortunately, the area of influence of the Bełchatów quarry not only in the late 20th century, but also at present, is characterized by fragmented agriculture (the average farm is on average 25% smaller than in Poland) with predominantly small herds of pigs and cattle and the dominance of own-feed consumption. The consequence of this is that the productivity of livestock production is lower than the average in Poland (e.g., milk yield of cows and fertility of sows) [46,49].

In contrast to crop production, data on changes in the livestock of the most important animal groups at the level of the former provinces, i.e., the areas of groups I and II, in relation to changes in livestock in the reference area, do not a show clear conclusion about impact of the Bełchatów open pit’s drainage (Figure 3). In principle, until 2010, changes in livestock around the Bełchatów opencast were small, while after 2010, a dynamic decline in cattle and cow populations became apparent in the former Piotrków Voivodship, where the Bełchatów open pit is located, but at the same time pig populations grew dynamically in this area, mainly due to the development of contract fattening with a simultaneous slowly deepening decline in pig populations in the area of group II.

A much clearer picture of the impact of the analyzed quarry is obtained when analyzing changes in livestock in smaller administrative units, i.e., in districts grouped according to the average distance of the district from the open pit (Figure 4). First of all, a systematic decline in cattle numbers in districts up to 60 km from the open pit is evident relative to those in districts located 80–100 km from the open pit and the reference area, indicating that the deepening decline in crop yields and the associated reduction in the availability of cattle feed has triggered a deepening process of abandonment of beef cattle and cows within a radius of up to about 60 km from the open pit. This process has not been observed in the case of pigs and sows, which could be due to the substitution of own feed for purchased feed. In the case of cattle, such substitution is more difficult, because there was a shortage of these feeds in the area of influence of the open pit, so they would have to be imported sometimes from tens of kilometers away. Since the relative cost of transporting roughage, which is the basis of cattle feeding, is high, it is uneconomical. In view of the shortage of own feed, contract fattening, which is based on the use of industrial feeds and which has allowed some farms to remain operational, has become an interesting alternative. It has developed very well in districts located 40–80 km east and south of the edge of the open pit. It is also gaining popularity in the Bełchatów district, where the open pit is located. While the increase in the pig population in districts located 40–60 km from the open pit more than compensated for the decline in the cattle and cow population, for districts closer to the open pit the decline in the population expressed in large size unit (LSU) was steadily exacerbated, reaching 25.1% in the Bełchatów district (district up to 20 km from the open pit) and 34.9% in districts located 20–40 km from the open pit in 2020. Despite the apparent downward trend, due to the conservatism of loss estimation, the average decreases in livestock stock over the past 10 years, i.e., 23.7% and 31.1%, were adopted for estimating external costs in livestock production. For districts located 40–60 km from the Bełchatów deposit, it was assumed that losses did not occur, although it should be assumed with high probability that if there was no open pit, the Bełchatów livestock population expressed in LSU would have been higher, as indicated by the changes in cattle and cow numbers, which are more sensitive to changes in yields.

The value of the estimated losses was determined to the greatest extent by the huge area of influence of the Bełchatów open pit and the inevitable decline in annual output associated with the depletion of the deposit and the associated closure of the oldest and least efficient power plant units from 2030. Of the currently operating units, 11 of them were put into service in 1981–1988, which after modernization have had 370–390 MW and a gross (net) efficiency of about 38.5% (36.0%). The last of the 858 MW units from 2011 have had a gross efficiency of 44.4% and a net efficiency of 41.3% [50]. In 2018, in order to produce 1 MWh of net electricity at the Bełchatów power plant, it was necessary to burn 1.355 Mg of lignite. [51]. If we assume a 5% improvement in the efficiency of the coal burned resulting from shutting down the least efficient units first, this average consumption will be about 1.287 Gg of coal. This will generate about 318.5 TWh of net electricity from the 410 Gg of lignite remaining to be mined at the beginning of 2023. The external costs to be borne by agriculture as a result of further exploitation of the Bełchatów deposit will average EUR 2.90 billion, and depending on the calculation variant, from EUR 2.51 billion to EUR 3.14 billion (

Table 4. External costs of lignite mining from Bełchatów open pit for 32 years (16 years of mining and an additional 16 years of water restoration) of the impact of the opencast mine (million EUR).

Specification	Variant I	Variant II	Variant III	Average	EUR·MWh−1
Plant production
Group I	1136	1418	1454	1336	4.19
Group II	1185	1489	1556	1410	4.43
Total	2320	2907	3009	2746	8.62
Animal production
up to 20 km	45	38	38	40	0.13
20–40 km	145	112	87	115	0.36
Total	190	150	126	155	0.49
All in total	2511	3057	3135	2901	9.11

). Including this amount in the cost of electricity production would result in an increase of EUR 9.11·MWh⁻¹, which is 18.8% of the average wholesale price of electricity in Poland in 2017–2021.

Shortening mining by one year, assuming that all the coal in the deposit is mined, will reduce external costs for agriculture. This will be the result of the open pit’s impact on agriculture being shortened by 2 years, as there will be a one-year-shorter period of mining and a one-year-shorter period of water restoration. In the 31st and 32nd year of the open pit’s impact, the costs incurred by agriculture were estimated at about EUR 185.5 million, which, when divided by the amount of energy produced (which will not change when the deposit is fully exploited), i.e., by 318.5 TWh, will reduce the average external cost by EUR 0.58·MWh⁻¹.

It is also possible that in 32 years, the lignite will not be fully exploited. Then, the costs incurred by agriculture will have to be accounted for by the smaller amount of electricity generated. Thus, if 400 Gg of lignite is mined instead of 410 Gg by 2038, electricity generation will decrease to 310.7 TWh, and external costs per MWh will increase by EUR 0.23, i.e., to EUR 9.34·MWh⁻¹. Each additional 10 Gg of coal not mined by 2038 will result in a similar increase in external costs for agriculture per MWh.

7. Discussion

The turbulence in global markets related to the conflict in Ukraine and the cancellation of oil and gas imports by most EU countries has led to a major shortage of energy resources, most notably gas. The drop in gas prices to pre-conflict levels in Ukraine, observed in early 2023, was made possible by a record warm winter in Europe, a reduction in gas consumption in European countries and an increase in LNG imports due to the opening of several new LNG terminals. The reduction in gas consumption was due to a reduction in its use as a raw material for electricity generation (gas has become the most expensive energy resource) and by the chemical industry, which reduced or even shut down production of the most gas-intensive products (e.g., nitrogen fertilizers), as these products would not find buyers at all-cost prices. Maintaining the reduction in gas consumption in the following years is rather impossible, since with prices at around EUR 50·MWh⁻¹ of gas, most industrial installations have already been fully activated. However, electricity generation from gas has not returned to pre-war levels, as gas has been replaced by other fossil fuels, including an increase in lignite consumption. In Poland, it amounted to 54.6 Mg in 2022. and this was 5% higher than that in 2021, while electricity generation from this fuel increased by 3.6% [6]. Rebuilding gas consumption in power plants will require a further decline in gas prices, and this will only be possible after the expansion of LNG and pipeline infrastructure from sources other than Russia, which will take several years. This is confirmed by an analysis by BloombergNEF, which predicts that as the price of CO₂ emissions rises, it will not be until 2025–2030 that electricity generation from gas will again become cheaper than that from lignite [52].

It is therefore possible that the rate of lignite extraction from the open pits in operation will accelerate, especially by 2025, which, if the trend continues, could accelerate the depletion date of the deposits. In the case of the Bełchatów deposit, this could happen in 2036 and not in 2038, as previously planned. The expected further increase in CO₂ prices and the decrease in the cost of energy production from renewables and gas will make lignite energy the most expensive again after 2030 (or even earlier) [52]. Additionally, as of July 2025, it will no longer be possible for the state to provide support within the power market for power plants emitting more than 550 g CO₂·kWh⁻¹ (and 350 g·kWh⁻¹ per year) [53], which will translate into a full deregulation of the rules of electricity production in Poland, making lignite power production profitable only during periods of peak demand, and therefore the highest prices. This will probably result in a reduction in output to a lower level than planned, so the Bełchatów deposit, despite the current higher output, may not be fully mined by 2038.

It should also be expected that lignite power generation will be terminated earlier than 2038 due to the losses incurred, as the example of the Polish company ZE PAK shows. This company has announced that it will shorten the operation of the Pątnów power plant and output from the Tomisławice open pit by six years due to the lack of support within the power market. The timing of the commissioning of new units at planned wind, photovoltaic, gas and nuclear power plants will also be key in this regard. Government assumptions call for 5.9 GW of offshore wind power capacity by 2030, and 6–9 GW of nuclear power between 2033 and 2043. These capacities are to be supplemented by new investments made by 2030 in 6 GW of gas-fired power plants, 4 GW of onshore wind power, and 6 GW of photovoltaic power plants. At the end of 2021, photovoltaic capacity in Poland reached an estimated 7.7 GW, exceeding the assumptions made in EPP2040 for the period [5]. In addition, the EPP2040 does not include small, modular reactors (SMRs), which may begin to be built from 2026. Preliminary plans by several companies planning to launch SMRs indicate that their total capacity could exceed 4 GW against the 5.1 GW installed at the Bełchatów power plant.

Studies on estimating costs as a result of coal combustion are widely conducted around the world, and they mostly include estimates of health costs for society and, somewhat less frequently, the costs of climate warming due to greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants, e.g., PM2.5 and PM10. What is lacking, however, is analyses of the external costs resulting from open pit coal mining. In the case of external costs incurred by agriculture as a result of open pit coal mining, only Peplinski’s team has undertaken studies on them, so further analyses to expand knowledge in this area are valuable [3,4,33,34,35].

Estimated external costs for the Bełchatów deposit are similar to the external costs for other deposits in Poland, e.g., Peplinski and Czubak’s [3] estimates for the Konin deposit set the average external cost for crop production alone at EUR 8.66·MWh⁻¹, and a Peplinski [4] estimate for the proposed Zloczew deposit, from which coal was to be burned at the Bełchatów deposit power plant, was set at EUR 12.20·MWh⁻¹. In addition to the external costs associated with agriculture, significant external costs are associated with lignite combustion and its impact on the health of residents across Europe. Annual health costs in 2013 were estimated to range from EUR 1.79 billion to EUR 3.45 billion, giving EUR 56.20–108.32·MWh⁻¹. These were associated with 1270 premature deaths, 630 chronic bronchitis cases, 1310 hospitalizations for respiratory or cardiovascular diseases, 27,930 asthma attacks in children, and 359,200 lost work days [54]. Another study estimated the health costs to be more than EUR 1.0 billion (EUR 31.40·MWh⁻¹), which included 489 premature deaths, 140,000 lost working days and 205 cases of chronic bronchitis in adults [55].

Additionally, surveys from other countries indicate high external costs to society and, the environment as a result of electricity production. According to data presented by Karkour el al. [56] for G20 countries, the highest external costs were generated by lignite, oil and hard coal and ranged from USD 26–282·MWh⁻¹; USD 41–240·MWh⁻¹ and USD 21–174·MWh⁻¹, respectively, while for wind and solar energy they ranged from USD 2–15·MWh⁻¹. These included external costs from combustion emissions, construction and decommissioning of the power plant and its equipment. In the case of fossil fuels, however, the external costs of extracting coal from open pit deposits and the external costs incurred by the natural environment, forestry and agriculture were not included.

Estimating the external costs caused by open pit coal mining is difficult, since much of it arises from changes below the surface. Some of the few surface factors are dust and noise, but their impact is usually limited to a few hundred meters from the open pit. Changes occurring beneath the surface must include, first and foremost, changes in water conditions, changes in stresses resulting from changes in water relations, the removal of overburden and the formation of an external dump. In the first case, as a result of the formation of drainage and depression cones, there is a reduction in available water, which leads to the drainage of wetlands, peatlands, changes in the species composition of habitats, the drying up of ponds and even lakes, etc., and in agriculture to a decrease in crop yields. Changes in stresses, in turn, lead to earthquakes, and land subsidence, which leads to the destruction of technical infrastructure and private property. The scale of these phenomena depends on a number of factors, but geological factors play a key role, and are different for each open pit. This makes forecasting the external costs associated with open pit mining difficult and poses a considerable risk of both overestimation and underestimation.

In the case of the Bełchatów deposit, about 60 seismic tremors are recorded annually, of which five events since the opening of the mine have had a magnitude of ML ≥ 4. The largest event in the area was ML = 4.6 on 29 November 1980, and the last event with a magnitude above ML = 4 was on 30 November 2014 [57,58]. Seismic shaking, along with land subsidence, is primarily responsible for numerous cracks in building walls, which are often difficult to clearly link to open pit activity. When repair costs are small, owners do not seek compensation. Consequently, part of the cost of repairs and renovations is not financed by the open pit’s owner, but is borne by the affected owners. External costs should also include costs associated with measures to prevent the effects of land subsidence or seismic shaking to strengthen the structure of buildings and infrastructure under construction, e.g., roads, gas pipelines, water, etc., which are not usually incurred outside the area of influence of the open pit.

External costs associated with the lowering of the water table are also difficult to estimate. It is particularly difficult to value environmental losses, especially if they involve the irretrievable loss of rare habitats, bird sanctuaries or other animal species under protection, threatened with extinction and appearing on the Species of European Conservation Concern list, among others. Many times, these environmental losses cannot even be valued. It is somewhat easier to estimate losses in agriculture and forestry, as they mostly involve areas where commercial activities are carried out and the estimated production losses can be valued. However, the main difficulty lies in valuing lost production, i.e., the decrease in yields in agriculture and timber growth in forestry. Both issues are relatively poorly studied, due to the multiplicity of variable factors, which include environmental, geological, soil and technological factors, as well as the spatial distribution of open pits, which are launched at different times. Within Poland, environmental factors are similar, but they can vary significantly from year to year. Much greater variation occurs in the case of geological and soil conditions. The former determine the extent and rate of development of the drainage and relief depression funnel. Particularly important is the occurrence of impermeable layers and their slope toward the open pit, so that local basins can be formed to keep the subsurface water unchanged. Additionally, important is the permeability of the ground, the size of water resources, the layout of water-bearing structures the distribution of tectonic faults and hydrological windows between different aquifers, etc.

There is also great variation in soil conditions particularly in terms of soil quality. Soil quality (understood as the natural, animated, thin surface layer of the earth’s crust) is mainly determined by soil fertility, which results from the soil’s ability to store and abound with nutrients, the depth and variability of the water table, and the yield fidelity of crops, i.e., yield stability. Changes in the water table to varying degrees can impair soil fertility and yield fidelity mainly as a result of reduced water availability. The original water table level and its change due to the impact of the open pit are important in this context. Depending on the species of crops grown, the optimal water table level is different. In the case of Poland, the dominant crops are cereals, corn, rapeseed, potatoes, sugar beets, legumes, meadows and pastures. Numerous studies indicate that in the case of wheat, the optimal development is guaranteed by a water table of 0.7–1.6 m (m); in the case of corn, this is guaranteed by a water table of 1.0–3.0 m; and for most other crops, this is guaranteed by a water table in the range of 1.5–2.0 m [59,60,61,62,63,64,65]. For meadows and pastures, according to some studies, it is indicated that the optimal water table is 0.3–0.8 m [66,67,68]. Thus, if the water table drops to a level close to the optimum, the impact of the open pit on yields will be positive. It will be worse if the water level is optimal or near-optimal, because then there is a lowering of the water table to below the optimal level and a decrease in yields resulting mainly from periodic water shortages during periods of hot weather and/or rainfall deficiency. In Poland, including in the area of influence of the Bełchatów open pit, the share of land with too high a groundwater level is minimal.

Studies are also available indicating the level of loss in agricultural production due to excessively low groundwater levels. Studies from the Inland Pampas from two growing seasons (2006–2007 and 2007–2008) indicate that wheat, soybean and corn yields in areas with optimal groundwater levels were 3.7, 3.0 and 1.8 times higher, respectively, than those when the water level was below 4.0 m [64]. Corn yield declines of 25–50% were also shown via studies in the Western Pampas. Arguably, similar yield declines are experienced by farmers cultivating land up to 2–5 km from the edge of the Bełchatów open pit, where the water table is from 4.0 m to over 100 m. On the other hand, the level of crop losses outside the area of the designated depression funnel, that is, the area with a lowered water table by less than 1.0 m, can be indicated by studies conducted in the Hungarian Lowlands. They showed that in 1986–2010, compared to 1961–1985, the water table decreased by 0.21–0.60 m, and yield losses were estimated for corn at 0.65 Mg·ha⁻¹, a loss of 11.6% of the crop. In the case of wheat, there was a stagnation of yield levels during this period [59]. Thus, this is similar to the decline in corn and potato yields over the 23 years since the Bełchatów open pit was put into operation in the Piotrków Province (Figure 1).

In addition, the region of influence of the Bełchatów open pit is located in the region of central Poland, which is subject to steppification processes due to excessively low rainfall [69], which exposes plants to long-term water shortages. The future of agricultural production is negatively affected by rising global temperatures. These cause an increase in evaporation and a decrease in the amount of rainwater available to plants, thus leading to a decrease in the agricultural efficiency of precipitation [70,71]. This efficiency is worsened by the decline in the importance given to continuous rainfall in favor of convective precipitation and heavy rainfall [72,73,74]. Data from Germany indicate that a one-degree increase in temperature increases the amount of heavy rainfall by 6.5% [75]. These processes mean that the amount of water recharging the subterranean waters decreases, so the process of restoring water relations around the Bełchatów open pit may be further delayed. Less available rainwater also means that plants will have to draw more water from groundwater, which will not be available or will be less available as a result of drainage from the Bełchatów open pit. This will increase the vulnerability of crops to drought, which is associated with frequent long periods without rain [69]. This will likely increase external costs in agriculture caused by the Bełchatów open pit in future years.