Potential of Producing Green Hydrogen in Jordan

Abstract

Green hydrogen is becoming an increasingly important energy supply source worldwide. The great potential for the use of hydrogen as a sustainable energy source makes it an attractive energy carrier. In this paper, we discuss the potential of producing green hydrogen in Jordan. Aqaba, located in the south of Jordan, was selected to study the potential for producing green hydrogen, due to its proximity to a water source (i.e., the Red Sea). Two models were created for two electrolyzer types using MATLAB. The investigated electrolyzers were alkaline water (ALK) and polymeric electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzers. The first model was used to compare the required capacity of the PV solar system using ALK and PEM from 2022 to 2025, depending on the learning curves for the development of these technologies. In addition, this model was used to predict the total investment costs for the investigated electrolyzers. Then, a techno-economic model was constructed to predict the feasibility of using this technology, by comparing the use of a PV system and grid electricity as sources for the production of hydrogen. The net present value (NPV) and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) were used as indicators for both models. The environmental effect, according to the reduction of CO₂ emissions, was also taken into account. The annual production of hydrogen was 70.956 million kg. The rate of hydrogen production was 19.3 kg/s and 1783 kg/s for ALK and PEM electrolyzers, respectively. The LCOH was 4.42 USD/kg and 3.13 USD/kg when applying electricity from the grid and generated by the PV system, respectively. The payback period to cover the capital cost of the PV system was 11 years of the project life, with a NPV of USD 441.95 million. Moreover, CO₂ emissions can be reduced by 3042 tons/year by using the PV as a generation source, instead of fossil fuels to generate electricity. The annual savings, with respect to the reduction of CO₂ emissions, was USD 120,135.

1. Introduction

If international climate protection goals are to be achieved, fossil energy sources will have to be almost completely replaced by greenhouse gas-neutral energy sources within the next few decades [1]. In addition to the use of biomass and the direct use of renewable electricity, green hydrogen will most likely play a central role in the substitution of fossil energy carriers [2]. As such, green hydrogen is central to achieving the Paris climate protection goals. In the global efforts to mitigate climate change and the accompanying advancing fossilization (i.e., the substitution of fossil raw materials), the importance of hydrogen produced in a greenhouse gas-neutral way is likely to increase in the future. Thereby, green hydrogen, i.e., hydrogen produced from renewable electricity utilizing electrolysis, offers the best prerequisites for the timely scaling of production while, at the same time, minimizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions [3].

Figure 1 shows that the demand for green hydrogen is likely to be subject to dynamic growth in the coming decades. In a progressive scenario, the demand for green hydrogen could almost reach the volume of modern hydrogen consumption as early as 2030. Even in a conservative scenario, the demand for green hydrogen is expected to exceed the current consumption of fossil-based hydrogen by 2045 at the latest. Green hydrogen is becoming a relevant energy carrier in the global energy mix, which will find its way into many sectors. Furthermore, green hydrogen can substitute for grey hydrogen in existing applications [4]. Through increased sector coupling, green hydrogen can also be increasingly used as a greenhouse gas-neutral energy carrier in the future; for example, in the mobility sector [5].

Hydrogen is a clean, long-lasting fuel with the potential to be a future global energy source. It may potentially be used to replace current fossil fuel-based energy infrastructure [6]. It is also quite evident that further efforts are imperative to reduce emissions linked with hydrogen production technologies [7]. This can be seen as a solution to the above-mentioned challenges, such as global warming and environmental degradation. It is impossible to overestimate the relevance of environmental and economic factors in the development of hydrogen infrastructure [8].

Every year, roughly 70 million tons of hydrogen are produced across the world (MTPA) [9]. Furthermore, hydrogen is currently mostly originated from coal and petroleum gas, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated that hydrogen generation uses 7% of all flammable gas [10]. Thus, green hydrogen is expected to play a major role in the future power mix globally, and its infrastructure will start replacing the typical old well-integrated fossil fuel infrastructure [9].

Many studies have discussed the use of various renewable energy sources to produce green hydrogen in several countries [11,12,13,14,15]. A study on the potential of green hydrogen production in Egypt using hybrid solar and wind sources was given in [11]. This study was conducted on MATLAB/Simulink, using three scenarios for the economic analysis. They concluded a high opportunity for the production of green hydrogen, with the payback period varying from 7 to 13.85 years, and the CO₂ emissions reduction over the system’s lifetime reached 689.4 tons [11]. A study was conducted in Ghana to study the potential of a hybrid power plant for the generation of electricity and hydrogen in terms of the production of fertilizer for agricultural activities, farmland irrigation, environmental impact, and employment potential [12]. The hybrid system is fed by renewable sources, such as solar PV panels and hydropower. This system also uses a hydrogen storage tank and battery to feed the demand in the absence of renewable sources. The results indicated a production of 8816 kg of hydrogen per year. The total GHG equivalents of 383.49 metric tons of CO₂ were calculated to represent the number of emissions that can be avoided if the optimal system is implemented to satisfy the energy requirements of this system [12]. The potential production of green hydrogen using PV solar sources in five locations in India was described in [13]. The total amount of power produced from all five locations combined was found to be around 25 GWh annually, equivalent to 20,744 metric tons of CO₂ that could be avoided [13]. An assessment of the potential of renewable energy resources in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for electricity and hydrogen production was given in [14]. This study was based on the excess energy from the off-grid system using solar PV, wind, and batteries to produce green hydrogen. The results indicated an effective configuration for the hybrid renewable energy system. The optimal hybrid system configuration, which included 18 kW PV, two wind turbines, and 14 batteries with an LCOE of 0.593 USD/kWh, totally satisfied the demand for power. An optimized scheme of renewable energy sources to satisfy the green hydrogen demand of many far-off villages in Iran using solar, wind, and biogas was presented in [15], the results of which indicated that using these sources is the most affordable method and can improve the system flexibility.

In 2020, the amount of hydrogen used worldwide was approximately 90 million tons. The annual demand has increased by 50% in the last twenty years [16]. As shown in the left pie chart in Figure 2, most of the global hydrogen demand comes from crude oil refining and the chemical industry. Annually, crude oil refineries consume almost 40 million tons of hydrogen as feedstock and reactants, or as an energy source. Around 45 million tons of hydrogen are used every year in the chemical industry, where hydrogen is mainly deployed to produce ammonia and methanol. While ammonia is a central feedstock to produce fertilizers, methanol is further processed into a variety of downstream products; for example, as used as a raw material to produce many types of glue or resins. Hydrogen use in the production and processing of metals contributes 5% to the global hydrogen demand.

The hydrogen used today is almost exclusively produced from fossil raw materials, apart from a few exceptional cases. As highlighted in the right pie chart in Figure 2, most of the globally produced hydrogen originates from natural gas (about 48%). Hydrogen production from coal amounts to 18%, and 30% of dedicated hydrogen production is from oil. The remaining 4% is produced using electricity by water electrolysis [17].

To exploit the full potential of green hydrogen production, different renewable energy resources could be considered. The yield of these energy sources—and, thus, the costs and land-use efficiencies—depends strongly on the geographical location. Exemplary indicators could be sunshine hours per year and average wind velocities, as well as the availability of rivers/dams that can be used for electricity generation. Considering the geographical spread is therefore essential, as each county has different characteristics regarding the availability of renewable energies. The focus, in this context, is on technical and economic feasibility [18].

As a significant portion of the total cost is related to the provision of electricity, the economic viability of manufacturing hydrogen using power-to-gas is currently largely location-dependent. Green hydrogen has already been shown to be cost-competitive with hydrogen supplies from fossil sources in areas where power-to-gas plants have access to a consistent supply of inexpensive renewable electricity [19]. High investment costs and low overall efficiency are the key determinants of the cost of converting hydrogen into fuel cells. Fuel cells have a high capital cost of between 15 and 40 MSEK/MW, depending on the precise kind of fuel cell and its properties, due to the technology’s relative infancy and the price of materials used in the catalysts [20].

Additionally, roughly 40% of the energy used to convert hydrogen into electricity is converted into low-grade heat at a temperature of about 65 °C. As a result, it is frequently challenging for power-to-power systems to achieve financial success. This is made better by the system’s high Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and often short operating hours, while LCOE of 4000–6000 SEK/MWh (1 SEK = 0.0911 USD) [21].

In the power-to-power scenario, it is believed that electrolyzer-generated energy will take the place of intermittent power generation. This presumption is predicated on the fact that the fuel cell’s goal is to produce electricity during upregulating hours when doing so is most advantageous. This implies that it will turn on when the system is experiencing either a power shortage or a peak in demand, which is also when the peak-power plants are operating—with an estimated emissions ratio of 400 kg CO₂/MWh, these power stations have the highest CO₂ emissions in the Swedish electricity system [22].

There are extensive literature studies on the potential of green hydrogen. Each study has criteria to predict the potential of producing hydrogen. Firstly, green hydrogen should have a renewable energy source, which depends on the location and the potential of the source in the selected region, and from spatial aspects—the land area for the renewable source. In addition, the presence of a water source nearest to the location will reduce the transportation costs for the water to the plant that affect the capital cost of investment.

There is extensive literature on green hydrogen production.

Table 1. Summary of some investigated factors in the literature.

Author (Year)	Renewable Energy Source	PV Area Required	Solar Irradiance Involved in Model	Simulink Tool	Electrolysis Investigated	Number of Locations
Ahshan, 2021 [23]	PV	No	Yes	-	No	6
Jarosch et al., 2022 [24]	PV, wind, biomass	No	No	-	No	5
Matute et al., 2022 [25]	PV	No	Yes	GAMS	No	1
Nasser et al., 2022 [11]	PV, wind	No	No	MATLAB	No	2
Agyekum et al., 2022 [12]	PV, hydro	No	No	HOMER	No	5

summarizes the general information of the investigated literature.

In the investigated literature studies, regarding green hydrogen production, the electrolyzers were not considered in the investigations. In this study, the learning curve for two types of electrolyzers was adapted to detect the capacity of solar PV panels to produce specific amounts of hydrogen. Ahshan [23] studied the potential of green hydrogen in six locations in Oman based on PV as a source for green production. The optimization criteria depend on the potential of solar radiation in these locations that reflect the LCOH for each location. Jarosch et al. [24] provided an extensive analysis of hydrogen production in a decentralized energy system as well as possible operation modes in five locations in Germany depending on PV, wind, and biomass sources. The developed model is applied to detect the share of hydrogen production in many sectors in Germany and provide the forecasting share for using this source in 2050. Matute et al. [25] created a model to calculate the optimal hourly dispatch of the electrolysis system and the energy imported and exported to the national grid in one location in Spain using GAMS as a Simulink tool. The LCOH from this plant was around five EUR/kg.

2. Hydrogen Production in Jordan

In this case study, we aimed to investigate Jordan’s potential, in terms of green hydrogen production. Our approach to this study was as follows:

First, the components of the suitable supply chain were identified, based on the regional conditions in Jordan. This initially involved identifying a suitable location for setting up a hydrogen production plant, as well as potentially available renewable energy resources. Second, we identified the processing steps, designed the model, and developed the MATLAB code for calculating the designed model outputs.

2.1. Availability of Renewable Energy Resources in Jordan

Jordan has seen a huge increase in progress toward producing green energy, due to an increasing reliance on renewable energy resources over the last decade. Producing green energy helps the environment by reducing CO₂ emissions due to energy production. A preliminary assessment of renewable energy resources was estimated, which can be used for green hydrogen production in Jordan. A mean wind power density for the 10% windiest area of 439 W/m² is shown in Figure 3. Furthermore, with a specific photovoltaic (PV) power output of 5.4 kWh/kWp per day, Jordan has a high potential for solar energy, as well as wind energy [9,11]. Therefore, both renewable energy sources were considered in the site identification for green hydrogen production in Jordan.

Figure 4 clearly shows that the potential for the use of solar energy is very high throughout the whole country. Jordan has a rich environment of renewable energies, i.e., wind and solar, which indicates its high potential for producing green hydrogen.

In 2019, the total amount of energy generated from renewable sources was approximately 3000 GWh per year, and the share of renewable electricity in total power generation was around 15% [27]. Therefore, Jordan has great potential for producing green hydrogen by relying on renewable energy resources.

Figure 4. PV power potential (a) [28] and wind speed probability (b) [29] in Jordan.

Figure 4. PV power potential (a) [28] and wind speed probability (b) [29] in Jordan.

2.2. Site Selection

The largest solar power plant in Jordan is the Baynouna Solar Project, which is one of the largest solar projects in the Middle East. The energy produced can displace more than 360,000 tons of CO₂ per year and its electricity production is equivalent to 3% of the annual energy consumption of Jordan. It has a capacity of 200 MWac/248 MWdc and is located 30 km east of the capital, Amman [30]. However, it is not the ideal site to install the green hydrogen power plant, due to its distance from a water source.

The largest wind farm in Jordan is Tafila Wind Farm, with a capacity of 117 MW. It is located in the south of Tafila and consists of 38 wind turbines. It would be ideal to install the hydrogen electrolyzer close to the Tafila wind farm; however, it is also far from a water source. An ideal site for the power plant would be closer to the Red Sea than other renewable energy projects, due to the huge need for water for the process. The proposed location at which to install the electrolyzer, which is adjacent to the Red Sea, is shown in Figure 3 In addition to the availability of water, the southern part of Jordan has a higher solar energy potential, as depicted in Figure 4.

Jordan—similar to many countries in the world—is going through an energy transition that will transform many of the current systems. Therefore, it is important for energy companies to closely follow the development of various energy markets. A large part of the debate/research regarding hydrogen revolved around demand-related questions about suitable applications, markets, and sectors. However, so far, not many studies have analyzed the bottleneck of possible expansion paths for electrolysis. The hope lies in the widespread rollout of hydrogen technology. To do this, huge electrolysis plants with outputs in the gigawatt range would have to be realized in the next few years. Only that can break the vicious circle of insecurity. However, such initiatives are not yet in sight. In this study, the learning curve for two types of electrolyzers was adapted to detect the capacity of solar PV panels to produce specific amounts of hydrogen.

3. Methodology

For this study, a model was created using MATLAB code to simulate the production process. Each input and output in the model were assigned a float variable symbol (letter) for carrying the required values. Then, a set of equations were developed using these variables, following the model structure. In addition, a techno-economic analysis was performed, in order to predict the feasibility of using a PV solar system with capital investment based on the NPV along the life-cycle and the time needed to reach the break-even point. These economic indicators indicate the feasibility and potential of using this technology in Jordan. In addition, CO₂ emission reduction while using green and renewable energy sources was assessed.

3.1. Model Description

Green hydrogen production using solar energy as a renewable source in Jordan was used as the decision variable for this study via two types of electrolyzers: alkaline (ALK) and proton exchange membrane (PEM). The model was used to compare the annual production of hydrogen with a fixed amount of solar power output, and to forecast production during the development of these technologies. On the other hand, based on the learning curve for these technologies, this model was used to detect the capacity of solar PV panels to produce specific amounts of hydrogen.

3.1.1. Solar PV System Model

This part of the model was used to predict the amount of solar radiation on a fixed tilt angle. For this, we needed to specify the independent variables that change due to the time of day, site location, and the number of days from the first of January (Julian Date, N), in order to assess the power generation from the PV panel required to feed the electrolyzer and compressor. The independent variables in this model were as follows:

• Latitude of the site (Aqaba, 29.5476°), symbol: L;
• Julian date, symbol: N;
• Hour angle (h);
• Tilt angle (β = 10°);
• PV efficiency (20%).

The subsequent set of mathematical equations [31] was used to predict the amount of solar radiation on a fixed tilt angle:

$$\mathrm{Declination} \mathrm{angle} \left(\delta \right)=23.45 \sin \left[\frac{360}{365}\left(284+\mathrm{N}\right)\right],$$

(1)

$$\mathrm{Irradiance} \mathrm{on} \mathrm{normal} \mathrm{surface} \left(\mathrm{Gn}\right)=1367 \left(1+0.033\cos \left[\frac{360\left(\mathrm{N}\right)}{365}\right]\right),$$

(2)

$$\mathrm{Geometric} \mathrm{Factor}=\frac{\sin \left(\mathrm{L}-\mathsf{\beta }\right)\sin \left(\mathsf{\delta }\right)+\cos \left(\mathrm{L}-\mathsf{\beta }\right)\cos \left(\mathsf{\delta }\right)\cos \left(h\right)}{\sin \left(\mathrm{L}\right)\sin \left(\mathsf{\delta }\right)+\cos \left(\mathrm{L}\right)\cos \left(\mathsf{\delta }\right)\cos \left(h\right)},$$

(3)

$$\mathrm{Irradiance} \mathrm{on} \mathrm{tilt} \mathrm{surface} \left(G_{tilt}\right)=G_n\times R_b.$$

(4)

3.1.2. Electrolyzer System Model

There are three main types of electrolysis: alkaline water electrolysis (ALK), polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis (PEM), and solid oxide electrolysis (SOEL) [32]. Regardless of the process, the principle of water electrolysis is identical. We compared the behavior of ALK and PEM on the decision variables. The development models of these technologies during the study period are detailed in

Table 2. ALK and PEM development models from 2017 to 2025 [33].

Technology		ALK		PEM		Mathematical Model for ALK	Mathematical Model for PEM
	Unit	2017	2025	2017	2025
Efficiency	kWh of electricity/kg of H2 production	51	49	58	52	555.25 − 0.25 × year	1570.75 − 0.75 × year
Total System Cost	Eur/kW	750	480	1200	700	68,823.75 − 33.75 × year	127,262.5 − 62.5 × year
Typical Output Pressure	Bar	Atmospheric	15	30	60	−3528.75 + 1.75 × year	−7533.75 + 3.75 × year
System Life Time	Years	20		20		20	20

.

The electrolyzers depend on the amount of salt water fed from the Red Sea and the electricity generated from the PV system that delivers the power to the two electrodes that separate the salt-water components to produce hydrogen. The independent variables in this model are:

• The amount of H₂ needed from the demand mode;
• The molar mass of hydrogen (1.008 × 10⁻³ kg/mole);
• Higher heating value (HHV), 285.8 kJ/mole;
• Lower heating value (LHV), 141.5 kJ/mole [34];
• The electrolyzer efficiency models for the two electrolyzer types (Table 2).

The decision variable in this model is the power consumption of the two electrolyzer types. The power consumption during this process is calculated as:

ALK power consumption (kW) = (number of moles) (HHV) (555.25 − 0.25 (year))

(5)

PEM power consumption (kW) = (number of moles) (HHV) (1570.75 − 0.75 (year))

(6)

3.1.3. Compression System

A compression system is used to increase the hydrogen pressure, enabling storage at high pressure in the storage tank. The level of pressure is used as an independent variable in our model. The inlet pressure to the compressor depends on the electrolyzer technology used and the learning curve equations listed in Table 2. The independent variables in this model are:

• The inlet pressure to the electrolyzer (Table 2);
• Maximum pressure needed to feed the demand (fixed at 200 bar);
• γ (the specific heat ratio of hydrogen) = 1.4;
• Ideal gas constant (R) = 4.1243 kJ/kg × K;
• T: temperature of inlet water = 300 K;
• Isentropic efficiency of the compressor = 70%.

In the model, the power consumption through the compressor is calculated as given in Equations (7) and (8) [35]. The results from these equations are considered independent variables for the power generation required from the PV system.

$$\mathrm{W} \mathrm{compressor} \left(\mathrm{ALK}\right)\left(\mathrm{kW}\right)=\frac{\left(\mathrm{mass} \mathrm{flow} \mathrm{rate}\right)\left({\mathrm{H}}_2\right)\left(\mathrm{T}\right){\left[\frac{\mathrm{Pout}}{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{ALK}\right)}\right]}^{\frac{\mathsf{\gamma }}{\mathsf{\gamma }-1}}-1}{\mathsf{\eta }},$$

(7)

$$\mathrm{compressor} \left(\mathrm{PEM}\right)\left(\mathrm{kW}\right)=\frac{\left(\mathrm{mass} \mathrm{flow} \mathrm{rate}\right)\left({\mathrm{H}}_2\right)\left(\mathrm{T}\right){\left[\frac{\mathrm{Pout}}{\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{PEM}\right)}\right]}^{\frac{\mathsf{\gamma }}{\mathsf{\gamma }-1}}-1}{\mathsf{\eta }}.$$

(8)

3.1.4. Models Output and Constraints

The potential for producing a fixed amount of green hydrogen depends on the power production from the PV system, which varies with the time of year. The capacity of the PV system should thus vary, according to the time of year. In a real case, it is impossible to change this capacity. Thus, this model can be used to predict the needed area for PV during the development and improvement of the performance of the electrolyzer, in order to provide a more efficient technology during the period until 2025. This model applies to forecasting the yearly production of hydrogen based on a fixed capacity of the PV system.

3.2. Model Code Using MATLAB

To be able to analyze the model and carry out calculations to obtain output values, two programming codes were created using MATLAB for these models. The inputs and outputs for each model were given the variable symbol to carry the required values, and a set of equations were written down using these variables, following the model’s structure. These models were constructed for ALK and PEM electrolyzer types. The MATLAB code is given in Appendix A.

The area of the PV system is the best variable to represent the PV system capacity. The developed code was used to predict the required area for the PV system during the improvement and development of electrolyzer technologies in the considered period. In addition, the model was used to predict the total investment cost, with respect to both electrolyzers.

3.3. Techno-Economical Study

Techno-economic modeling also introduces some simplifications that could have certain effects on the results. These were used due to a lack of appropriate data, or to simplify the process. Examples of such simplifications are component efficiencies, which were modeled as constant even though load-dependent performance is common. However, the model was developed to obtain an understanding of how hydrogen-based systems perform in different scenarios, and not to deliver exact results, and thus was considered appropriate.

The approach followed in this study was to identify a financially designed model to calculate the economic feasibility of installing a hydrogen power plant in the south of Jordan, comparing the use of primary sources. One of the main challenges in Jordan is water availability, which plays an important role in green hydrogen production. Furthermore, green hydrogen production relies on electrolysis operations, as mentioned in detail in the previous technical models. Moreover, the water used in the electrolysis process must be a good conductor [36]. Salty water is considered a great conductor and suits the electrolysis process for green hydrogen production very well [37]. Thus, water can be used directly from the Red Sea for green hydrogen production.

The economic study was carried out with the intent to compare scenarios for operating a hydrogen production power plant based on various primary sources (i.e., grid electricity, heavy fuel, diesel, and renewable energy sources). The decision variables for this comparison were the NPV and the break-even point for these scenarios to produce 10 kg/sof hydrogen for 20 years as a life-cycle, and the effective interest rate (i) was 8% [38].

$$N.P.V=Annual cost\left[\frac{{(1+i)}^N-1}{i{(i+1)}^N}\right].$$

(9)

3.3.1. Non-Renewable Energy Sources for Hydrogen Production

In Jordan, many non-renewable energy sources are used to feed electric power plants, such as natural gas, diesel, and heavy fuel oil. In the first scenario, grid electricity was used to feed the hydrogen power plant, and the power consumption of the electrolyzer and the compressor were evaluated in the model. Then, the annual operation cost (USD/year) for this alternative was calculated by applying Equation (10), based on the electricity tariff in Jordan (0.21 USD/kWh) [39]:

$$\mathrm{Annual} \mathrm{Operating} \mathrm{Cos}\mathrm{t} \left(\mathrm{USD}\right)=365\left(\mathrm{Daily} \mathrm{hydrogen} \mathrm{production}\right)\left(\mathrm{Daily} \mathrm{Electricity} \mathrm{needed}\right)\left(\mathrm{Tariff}\right)$$

(10)

3.3.2. Renewable Energy Source for Hydrogen Production

Figure 5 shows the general process of green hydrogen production. In this study, a solar PV system is considered to provide energy to the electrolyzer, and seawater is pumped directly from the Red Sea to the electrolyzer. Afterward, hydrogen is moved to the compression chamber where it is compressed for storage, then directly moved to storage tanks. These storage tanks will be transported to the point-of-use for the end application.

Regarding the market information on photovoltaics in Jordan [40], the initial price per installing 1 kWh for PV in Jordan is 705.23 USD/kWh, with no operating cost assumed for this system. The initial cost of this system was evaluated using the mathematical equation:

$$\mathrm{Installation} \mathrm{Capital} \mathrm{Cos}\mathrm{t}\left(\mathrm{USD}\right)=705.23\left(\mathrm{PV} \mathrm{Capacity}\left(\mathrm{kWh}\right)\right).$$

(11)

The PV capacity was evaluated according to a previous technical model, based on the required rate of green hydrogen production.

3.3.3. Water Consumption Cost

As the proposed location of the site is very close to the Red Sea, the cost of seawater is expected to be very low. The price of water was roughly estimated, including the delivery cost of pumping the water from the Red Sea to the plant. The estimated price was 0.027 USD/kg of seawater:

$$\mathrm{Annual} \mathrm{Seawater} \mathrm{Cos}\mathrm{t}\left(\mathrm{USD}\right)=365\left(\mathrm{Daily} \mathrm{Water} \mathrm{Consumption}\left(\mathrm{kg}\right)\right)\left(\cos \mathrm{t}\right).$$

(12)

3.3.4. Revenue

Calculating the revenue depends on the end application of green hydrogen. In this paper, we assumed that the total generated amount would be sold to the market as green hydrogen, which is in high demand at present. The green hydrogen average selling price globally is equal to 6 USD/kg [40]:

$$\mathrm{Annual} \mathrm{Revenue}\left(\mathrm{USD}\right)=365\left({\mathrm{Daily} \mathrm{H}}_2 \mathrm{Productionin} \mathrm{kg}\right)\left(\mathrm{selling} \mathrm{price}\right).$$

(13)

LCOH was calculated from the sum of the annual fixed costs of the investment and the annual operating costs consisting of the electricity and water costs divided by the annual hydrogen production. The operating cost and the production amount were assumed constant over the study period.

$$\mathrm{LCOH}=\frac{\mathrm{Annual} \mathrm{fixed} \cos \mathrm{t} \left(\mathrm{USD}\right)+\mathrm{Annual} \mathrm{operating} \cos \mathrm{t}\left(\mathrm{USD}\right)}{\mathrm{Annual} \mathrm{Hydrogen} \mathrm{Production} \left(\mathrm{kg}\right)}$$

(14)

For the second scenario, when the electricity is supplied from the PV, the annual fixed cost is due to the PV system with zero operating costs for the electricity.

3.4. CO₂ Emissions Reduction

The emissions factor is required for the calculation of the total CO₂ emissions reduction. Available statistical energy data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) were considered in this study. Using energy production from different sources, including renewable energy (as shown in

Table 3. CO₂ Factor from the annual report of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources [39].

Source	GWh	CO2 Factor (kg of CO2/kWh)	Emissions (Tons)
Natural Gas	9211	0.4	3,684,400
Diesel	6644	0.6	4,650,800
Heavy Fuel Oil	2974	0.7	1,784,400
Renewable	184	0	0
Total	19,013		10,119,600

), the electricity emissions factor (EEF) was calculated [41].

The average electricity emissions factor (EEF) in the equation is based on the total emissions per total electricity generated annually [42]:

$$\mathrm{EEF}\left(\frac{\mathrm{kg}}{\mathrm{kWh}}\right)=\frac{\mathrm{Total} \mathrm{Emissions}\left(\mathrm{kg}\right)}{\mathrm{Total} \mathrm{Electricity} \left(\mathrm{kWh}\right)}.$$

(15)

Then, the annual CO₂ emissions (from each source) are calculated as:

$${\mathrm{AnnualCO}}_2 \mathrm{Emissions} \left({\mathrm{kg} \mathrm{of} \mathrm{CO}}_2\right)=\left(\mathrm{Annual} \mathrm{consumption} \left(\mathrm{kWh}\right)\right) \left({\mathrm{CO}}_2 \mathrm{Factor}\right).$$

(16)

4. Results and Discussion

4.1. PV Solar System Capacity

From the MATLAB code, we predicted the area of the PV system as the decision variable for this model, in order to generate 1000 mole/sof hydrogen. Figure 6 and Figure 7 show the results after running the code for four years (from the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2025) for both electrolyzer technologies. The capacity required for these technologies decayed due to developments enhancing the performance and increasing the efficiency of these technologies. The ALK electrolyzer system consumed 16.381 MW in 2022, which reduced to 14.218 MW in 2025. For the other electrolyzer type, PEM consumed 15.505 MW in 2022 and reduced to 14.002 MW in 2025.

4.1.1. PV Solar Capacity Using ALK

Figure 6 shows the required area for PV solar systems from 2022 to 2025 under ALK. The fluctuation of the system capacity over these years was due to the solar radiation available at the selected site in Aqaba.

4.1.2. PV Solar Capacity Using PEM

PEM technology has higher efficiency than ALK, which means that a lower PV capacity is required to generate hydrogen at the same rate. Figure 7 shows the required PV area using the PEM electrolyzer.

4.1.3. PV Solar Capacity for ALK Versus PEM Technologies

The rate of decay in the PV solar capacity varied between the two technologies. The required area for the ALK electrolyzer decayed at a very high rate, compared with that of PEM. This behavior plays a role in affecting the capital cost of investment. Figure 8 shows the difference in the degradation rate for the required area between these technologies. The fluctuation rates of these two curves can be seen at the same frequency, due to the use of the same selected site.

4.2. Hydrogen Production Rate

In the second model, the rate of hydrogen production was taken as the decision variable. This rate varies with the time of year, based on the available irradiance on the tilted surfaces. Figure 9 and Figure 10 show the potential hydrogen generation rates for the two types of electrolyzers in 2025.

4.2.1. Hydrogen Production Rate Using ALK

The rate of production fluctuated. The pattern over the year had the same amplitude and wide range, due to the assumption of no clouds or any environmental factor affecting the incident radiation. Figure 9 shows the production rate behavior during 2025 when using an ALK electrolyzer. As can be seen from the figure, the maximum production rate of 19.325 kg/swas achieved at N = 261.

4.2.2. Hydrogen Production Rate Using PEM

The rate of production using the PEM electrolyzer had a much higher rate than ALK. The results indicated the maximum rate to be 1783 kg/son the same day as that for ALK (N = 261). Figure 10 shows the production rate of hydrogen using a PEM electrolyzer in the year 2025.

4.2.3. ALK Versus PEM Hydrogen Production Rate

The production rate of hydrogen when applying the ALK electrolyzer was between 15 to 20 kg/s when using a fixed capacity of solar PV, while the range of the hydrogen production rate using PEM was 10 times higher. Figure 11 shows the rate of hydrogen production during 2025 and the huge gap in the hydrogen production rate for both electrolyzers. The results shown in Figure 11 were applied in the techno-economic study to determine the feasibility and the payback period, as shown in Figure 12 and Figure 13.

4.3. Techno-Economical Model Results

The economical result was based on the rate of hydrogen production in the ALK electrolyzer being 10 kg/s for 5.4 h per day throughout the year, thus producing 194,400 kg/day. For the given initial conditions and the MATLAB code sequence, the rated power that must be delivered to the electrolyzer is 2.858 MW. In the first alternative, this power is extracted from the grid at a tariff of 0.21 USD/kWh. The annual energy cost is USD 195.90 million, and the annual production for hydrogen is 70.956 × 10⁶ kg. The LCOH in the first alternative, using electricity from the grid, is 4.42 USD/kg of hydrogen. In the second scenario, green hydrogen was produced based on the electricity generated from PV. The required capacity for the PV to generate the same rate of hydrogen was 14.29 MW, in order to generate 2.858 MW at an efficiency of 20% for the whole PV system. The LCOH was reduced to 3.13 USD/kg by applying electricity generated from the PV system. In addition, the break-even point under the second scenario, i.e., to cover the capital cost of the PV system, was 11 years of the project life. The NPV under the second scenario was USD 441.95 million, representing the feasibility and potential of this project. Figure 12 and Figure 13 depict the cash flow and the break-even point obtained in the techno-economic study, respectively.

The advantages of hydrogen fuel cells as one of the best renewable energy sources are clear, but there are still a number of challenges to be overcome in order to realize the potential. On the positive side, hydrogen fuel cells could offer a fully renewable and clean energy source for the future, providing an efficient energy source with very little environmental impact. Achieving this will require further technological advances to reduce the associated costs of extraction, storage, and transport, as well as further investment in infrastructure. Hydrogen could become the best solution for our future energy needs, but this requires political will and investment.

In this study, the potential of hydrogen production in Jordan has been investigated by evolving a mathematical model that simulates the optimal performance. In the economic feasibility study, the operating hours for green hydrogen production are constant during the whole year at 5.4 h/day. In addition, the production rate of the hydrogen was at a steady state during the operating hours. In the forecasting model, the cost of the PV system was constant during the years of study, and the efficiency of the PV system was assumed constant at 20% during the years of operation. The feasibility study did not include the maintenance costs. For future work, there will be a need to follow the hydrogen market closely and identify business partners for the selling and distribution of hydrogen in Jordan and neighboring countries. Furthermore, there will be a need to investigate other technologies for hydrogen production and re-electrification than the components used in this study. To achieve this, there will be a need to scale up decarbonized hydrogen production and fuel cell manufacturing, and develop the required regulatory framework to clearly define commercial deployment models. Further technological advances to lower the associated costs of extraction, storage, and transportation are envisaged, along with further investments in the infrastructure to support it.

4.4. CO₂ Emissions Reduction

A decisive factor in a future energy supply with less CO₂ is electricity. This is especially true for the production of green hydrogen as an energy and material carrier in all sectors of energy demand. In this paper, the EEF was set to 0.54 kg of CO₂/kWh, based on statistical data from the Jordanian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. In the first scenario (electricity from the grid), 2.858 MW was required as the generation source for the electrolyzer. In the second scenario (electricity generated from the PV system), the CO₂ emission reduction was equal to 3080 tons. Thus, the annual savings according to the reduction of CO₂ emissions, with an assumption of 39 USD/ton of CO₂, was USD 120,135.

5. Conclusions

With hydrogen as an energy store, supply bottlenecks can be avoided in the case of strongly fluctuating regenerative power generation from the wind and sun. Jordan has seen a huge increase in the progress toward producing green energy; it has relied on renewable energy resources in the last decade. The potential of producing green hydrogen in Aqaba, Jordan, is discussed in this paper. An economic feasibility study was carried out regarding the production of green hydrogen, taking the environmental effects of CO₂ emission reductions into account (i.e., the upstream emissions due to the provision of electricity were considered). The potential was modeled for two types of electrolyzers (ALK and PEM), accompanied by a comparison between the two types when sourcing electricity from fossil fuels and PV. NPV and LCOH were used as indicators describing the feasibility of both electrolyzer models. The annual production of hydrogen was 70,956,000 kg. The rates of hydrogen production were 19.3 kg/s and 1783 kg/s for ALK and PEM electrolyzers, respectively. The LCOH was 4.42 USD/kg and 3.13 USD/kg when applying electricity from the grid and generated from the PV system, respectively. The payback period to cover the capital cost of the PV system was 11 years of the project life, with an NPV of USD 441.95 million. Moreover, CO₂ emissions were reduced by 3042 tons/year when using PV as a generation source, instead of grid electricity generated using fossil fuels. The annual savings due to the reduction of CO₂ emissions, with an assumption of 39 USD/ton of CO₂, was USD 120,135. In this paper, the potential for hydrogen production in Jordan was investigated by MATLAB modeling, where models were built based on two types of electrolyzers, applying certain learning curve models and simplification assumptions. Hence, the results indicating the feasible potential of green hydrogen production should be noted as indicators, recommending further investigations for validation of the results obtained in this study. One factor of uncertainty in this study is the development of the hydrogen market in Jordan; a sufficient demand for hydrogen is a critical issue. Today, the demand cannot be enough to justify a large investment similar to the one proposed in this study. However, the demand for green hydrogen will grow fast in the coming years. This trend should be followed closely, and if possible, consumers of hydrogen in Jordan and neighboring countries should be identified.