This paper presents distinct scenario pathways and their storylines resulting from an analysis of interdependencies. We identified the main drivers of a proposed renewable energy transition in rural Mixteca-Puebla, Mexico. By analyzing the main factors involved in alleviating impoverished communities in the rural region, we show the varying degrees to which these drivers influence, support, or hinder a promising energy transition. A Cross-Impact Balance Analysis was conducted to explore the multiple inter-relationships among a set of conditions. This methodology allowed us to evaluate the relationships between social, political, cultural, and environmental variables. The main drivers were identified as clusters of several elements, in which the uncertainties in governance
and the legal system
trigger the inter-relationship of forces in the area. The focus of this paper is to show how the societal aspects affect the structural energy transformation and its capacity for adaptation in future trends envisioned for the area. This research contributes to the use of technological transformation as a means to alleviate poverty in a rural area. These outcomes give insights regarding the conditions to be considered, in respect to possible–encouraging, but also pessimistic pathways for the region in coming decades.
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