The Cost of Photovoltaic Forecasting Errors in Microgrid Control with Peak Pricing
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- Are state-of-the-art weather predictions already sufficient to reduce demand peaks?
- What is the correlation between prediction accuracy and resulting cost?
- What is the time horizon in which the prediction accuracy is relevant?
- Using solar irradiance forecasts from weather services as predictions for PV power generation can reduce peak costs;
- The cost reduction scales with the prediction error, specifically
- –
- If PV generation is known at the current time step, the costs increase linearly with the prediction error;
- –
- If only predictions are used for the current time step, the correlation resembles a piece-wise linear function, with a significantly higher slope for lower errors.
- Our results suggest that the prediction accuracy for PV generation is only relevant within a short period at the beginning of the prediction horizon.
2. Methodology and Simulation Setup
2.1. Microgrid Modeling
2.2. Economic MPC Approach
2.3. Simulation Framework
2.3.1. Data Sources
2.3.2. Artificial Errors
2.3.3. Treatment of Disturbances at Current Time Step
3. Results & Discussion
3.1. Potential Savings
3.2. Correlation between Prediction Accuracy and Costs
3.3. Influence of Prediction Accuracy within the Time Horizon
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
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Parameter | Description | Value |
---|---|---|
Sample time (step width) in h | 0.25, 0.5 or 1 | |
Thermal capacity of the building in kWh/K | 1792.06 | |
Heat transfer coefficient to outside air in kW/K | 341.94 | |
Energy efficiency ratio cooling machine | ||
Current constant CHP, i.e., | 0.677 |
Variable | Limits | Unit |
---|---|---|
E | ||
°C | ||
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Schmitt, T.; Rodemann, T.; Adamy, J. The Cost of Photovoltaic Forecasting Errors in Microgrid Control with Peak Pricing. Energies 2021, 14, 2569. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14092569
Schmitt T, Rodemann T, Adamy J. The Cost of Photovoltaic Forecasting Errors in Microgrid Control with Peak Pricing. Energies. 2021; 14(9):2569. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14092569
Chicago/Turabian StyleSchmitt, Thomas, Tobias Rodemann, and Jürgen Adamy. 2021. "The Cost of Photovoltaic Forecasting Errors in Microgrid Control with Peak Pricing" Energies 14, no. 9: 2569. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14092569