Evaluation of Energy Transition Scenarios in Poland

Long-term energy scenarios form the basis of energy policy-making. In practice, the use of energy scenarios for the effective creation of energy policy differs in each country. Therefore, the aim of this study is to present two possible scenarios for the development of the Polish energy sector, resulting from the current national policy and international commitments of Poland. The study examined the development of the energy mix in Poland in the 2040 perspective, in accordance with the strategic document Energy Policy of Poland (PEP 2040). The analysis took into account four diagnostic features: electricity production, electricity price, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in final energy consumption, and CO₂ emission reduction. In addition, the analysis allowed for the presentation of the implications for the Polish economy and society after the application of the diversified variant with nuclear energy and the diversified variant with natural gas. Both scenarios assume too slow development of RES, and the ambivalent attitude of the Polish political elite towards zero-emission energy sources significantly hinders the development of some of its forms (e.g., onshore wind energy). Unfortunately, both the first and second variants entail a large increase in electricity prices, which will affect the entire economy and increase the level of energy poverty among Poles. The study provides strategic insights on the consequences of Poland’s choice of a specific energy transformation scenario. The results may serve as a starting point for understanding Poland’s restraint towards achieving zero emissions and contribute to the discussion of the direction of development of the Polish energy sector.