1.1. Policy Background
1.2. Previous Research
- Predicting the electricity grid mix of generators in California for 2030 that will meet the 60% goal of RPS eligible electricity consumed in the state;
- Simulating the electricity demand of PEVs in 2030 based on behavioral mobility studies of California residents, technology improvements of PEVs, and an increase in available private and public charging infrastructure and available power outputs;
- Analyzing annual grid operations and optimizing the influence of PEV charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) on daily grid operations with focus on integrating renewable electricity to mitigate curtailment and ramping needs.
2. Materials and Methods
- Develop clean base-year electricity demand profiles from PEV charging demands;
- Scale loads to 2030 demand forecast predictions;
- Simulate 2030 PEV charging demand;
- Run optimization software for 2030 grid investments;
- Optimize managed charging profiles to mitigate curtailment of renewable generators and ramping-constraints resulting from the 2030 grid.
2.1. Predict Unmanaged Charging Demands of the Base Year 2017
- Official PEV registration numbers in California in 2017;
- PEV data on battery capacity, power consumption and maximum charging power;
- Charging infrastructure availability in the state;
- Mobility behavior data.
2.2. PEV Data
2.3. Charging Infrastructure in California
2.4. Mobility Behavior
2.5. Scale Load Profiles to 2030 Using Demand Forecast
2.6. Predict Unmanaged Charging Demands for 2030 Using V2G-SIM
2.6.1. PEV Data for Year 2030
- Electricity load inputs (demand scenarios including vehicle loads)
- Existing generators and plants
- Potential new renewable generators
- Renewable share goals
- Planned retirements of generation technologies
- Plant costs/fuel costs/financial details
- Variable capacity factors of intermittent renewable generators (generation potential)
- Must-run hydroelectric generation profiles
- Transmission capacities
- Existing stationary storage
- New stationary storage investments
2.6.2. California Grid Modeling Results
2.7. Populate V2G-SIM Inputs for Managed Charging Scenarios
2.8. California Grid Modeling Results
- AC Level 2 7-kW V2G
- DC 24-kW V2G
2.9. Operate GridSim to Analyze Curtailment Scenarios
3. Results and Discussion
- Case 1—No ZEVs
- Case 2—Unmanaged Charging
- Case 3—Managed Charging—V1G
- Case 4—Managed Charging—V2G
Estimated Avoided Needs for Grid Storage
Conflicts of Interest
|a (2030−2017)||annual growth rate of electricity consumption between 2017–2030|
|BEV||battery electric vehicle|
|California ISO||California Independent System Operator|
|CEC||California Energy Commission|
|CP||equation term for capital cost of power in U.S. dollars per kilowatt|
|CS||equation term for capital cost of storage in U.S. dollars per kilowatt|
|EG,2030||generated electricity in 2030|
|EL,2030||system electricity consumption in 2030|
|EOG,2030||over-generated electricity in 2030|
|ES,2030||stored electricity in 2030|
|ESt||equation term for storage capacity in kilowatt hours|
|FCEV||fuel cell electric vehicle|
|ISO||independent system operator|
|LBNL||Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory|
|NHTS||National Highway Travel Survey|
|PEV||plug-in electric vehicle|
|PHEV||plug-in hybrid electric vehicle|
|Pi (t)||charging power of a single vehicle in kW|
|Pi,2030||equation term for…|
|P(L-V),2017||system electricity power demand—sum of vehicle charging loads in kW in 2017|
|P(L-V),2030||system electricity power demand—sum of vehicle charging loads in kW in 2030|
|PL.2017||system electricity power demand in 2017|
|P(NL),2030||net load in 2030 (electricity demand—solar and wind power)|
|P(NL-V),2030||net load in 2030—sum of vehicle charging load|
|PS,2030||solar power generation in 2030|
|PSt||equation term for storage rated net power|
|PW,2030||wind power generation in 2030|
|RPS||renewable portfolio standard|
|t/T||equation term representing the variable time|
|TPC||equation term representing the total plant cost|
|V1G||a term for smart charging of electric vehicles|
|V2G||vehicle to grid: a concept where electric vehicles can send electricity back into the grid as well as vary their charging rate|
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|EO B-16-2012 (Brown)||23 March, 2012|
|SB 350 (DeLeon)||7 October 2015|
|SB 32 (Pavley/Garcia)||1 January 2017|
|EO B-48-18 (Brown)||26 January 2018|
|SB100 (DeLeon)||10 September 2018|
|Air Resources Board||1 January 2019|
|Vehicle Type||Registered Vehicles||Percent of ZEVs||Percent of Total Stock|
|Consumption (kWh/100 km)||Battery Pack Size (kWh)||Max Charging Power (kW)||Resulting Range (km)|
|No Charger||AC Level 1: 1.4 kW||AC Level 2: 7.2 kW||DC: 24 kW||DC: 50 kW||DC: 120 kW|
|Annual Charging Demand||466.4 GWh|
|Annual Electricity Consumption in California||~292 TWh|
|Percentage of Annual Total Consumption||~0.16%|
|Average Annual Growth (%)|
|Low Demand Case||Mid Demand Case||High Demand Case|
|Total Net Consumption (GWh)|
|Number of PEVs (millions)|
|Consumption (kWh/100 km)||Battery Pack Size (kWh)||Max Charging Power (kW)||Average Range (km)|
|BEV/PHEV Ratio||60%/40% (all cases)|
|Low PEV Forecast||2.6 million vehicles|
|Mid PEV Forecast||3.3 million vehicles|
|High PEV Forecast||3.9 million vehicles|
|No Charger||AC Level 1—1.4 kW||AC Level 2—7.2 kW||DC—24 kW||DC—50 kW||DC—120 kW|
|Scenario||Total PEVs (Million)||Total Charging Demand (TWh)|
|Low Charging Demand||2.6||4.38|
|Mid Charging Demand||3.3||5.56|
|High Charging Demand||3.9||6.57|
|Total ZEVs in 2030||3.3 million|
|Annual EV Charging Demand in 2030||5.56 TWh|
|Annual Electricity Consumption in 2030||~339 TWh|
|Percentage of Annual Total Consumption in 2030||~1.64%|
|Percentage of Annual Total Consumption in 2017||~0.16%|
|Generator Type||Overnight Capital Costs in 2020 ($/kW)||Percent Price Decline by 2030||Resulting Overnight 2030 Price ($/kW)||Connection Costs ($/kW)||Operating Costs ($/kW/Year)|
|Solar Fixed Tilt||1763||17%||1463||74.2||22.02|
|AC Level 1—1.4 kW||30%||-||-|
|AC Level 2—7.2 kW (uncontrolled)||20%||20%||50%|
|AC Level 2—7.2 kW (V1G)||40%||30%||-|
|DC—50 kW (V1G)||-||10%||10%|
|DC—120 kW (V1G)||-||5%||5%|
|AC Level 1—1.4 kW||20%||-||-|
|AC Level 2—7.2 kW (uncontrolled)||10%||20%||50%|
|AC Level 2—7.2 kW (V1G)||30%||20%||-|
|AC Level 2—7.2 kW (V2G)||20%||10%||-|
|DC—24 kW (V1G)||-||10%||10%|
|DC—24 kW (V2G)||10%||10%||-|
|DC—50 kW (V1G)||-||10%||10%|
|DC—120 kW (V1G)||-||5%||5%|
|No PEVs||Unmanaged PEVs||Managed PEVs with V1G||Managed PEVs with V2G|
|Total Demand in TWh||334.81||339.19||339.19||339.19|
|Curtailment in TWh|
|Curtailment in % of Total Generation|
|Renewable Energy Curtailment|
|Equivalent Power Capacity|
|Equivalent Energy Capacity|
|Power Capacity (MW)||Energy Capacity (MWh)||Equivalent Storage Cost (Billion U.S. $2019)|
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