Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems
Abstract
:1. Introduction
Case Study of the 2017–2018 Northeast Winter
2. Methods
- Establish a baseline set of building energy models representing the approximate 5.4 million detached homes that use natural gas for heating in the Northeast.
- Simulate the baseline models to estimate the total natural gas demand.
- Simulate aggressive and conservative demand response and energy efficiency strategies applied to the baseline home models.
- Compare natural gas savings potential and indoor temperature impacts to the building stock and individual buildings.
- Model the wholesale market response of natural gas supply and estimate the potential economic impacts of NG-DR.
2.1. Building Stock Modeling
2.2. Demand Response and Energy Efficiency Strategies
2.3. Modeling Pricing and Grid Impacts
3. Natural Gas Savings Potential of Demand Response
4. Implications of a Diverse Housing Stock
4.1. Impact of Conservative Strategies on Indoor Temperature
4.2. Impact of Aggressive Strategies on Indoor Temperature
5. Economic and Grid Analysis
6. Discussion and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Scenario | Description | Applies To |
---|---|---|
Baseline | Normal Home Operation | All Homes |
Conservative (3 °F) | Setback homes by 3 °F overnight (9 h) | Homes with constant heating setpoints (46%) |
Conservative DR (6 °F) | Setback homes by 6 °F overnight (9 h) | |
Conservative DR (12 °F) | Setback homes by 12 °F overnight (9 h) | |
Conservative EE | 25% ACH50 reduction | |
Aggressive DR | Setback homes to 63 °F (48 h) | Homes with existing setpoints > 63 °F (96%) |
Aggressive EE | 50% ACH50 reduction + R-60 attic insulation | |
Water Heater | Remove water heating demand (48 h) | All Homes |
Outdoor Conditions | Scenario | Description | NG Reduction (MMBtu) | NG Reduction (%) | Estimated Electricity Price ($/MWh) | Maximum Additional NG Gen. (MWh) | Maximum Oil Gen. Displaced (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cold (Jan. 6) | Baseline | N/A | Demand: 3,323,147 | N/A | $303 | N/A | N/A |
Conservative DR (3 °F) | 3 °F Setback Overnight | 87,695 | 3% | $226 | 11,235 | 9% | |
Conservative DR (6 °F) | 6 °F Setback Overnight | 176,750 | 5% | $176 | 22,749 | 18% | |
Conservative DR (12 °F) | 12 °F Setback Overnight | 340,995 | 11% | $119 | 45,402 | 36% | |
Conservative EE | 25% ACH50 Reduction | 338,452 | 10% | $122 | 40,774 | 32% | |
Aggressive DR | 63 °F Setback for 48 h | 962,929 | 29% | $43 | 122,309 | 97% | |
Aggressive EE | 50% ACH50 Reduction + R-60 Attic Insulation | 1,690,267 | 51% | NA * | 206,190 | 164% | |
Moderate (Jan. 23) | Baseline | N/A | Demand: 2,192,782 | N/A | $34 | N/A | N/A |
Conservative DR (3 °F) | 3 °F Setback Overnight | 69,360 | 3% | $31 | 8799 | N/A | |
Conservative DR (6 °F) | 6 °F Setback Overnight | 127,737 | 6% | $28 | 16,472 | N/A | |
Conservative DR (12 °F) | 12 °F Setback Overnight | 205,958 | 9% | $25 | 26,939 | ||
Conservative EE | 25% ACH50 Reduction | 74,792 | 3% | $30 | 13,200 | N/A | |
Aggressive DR | 63 °F Setback for 48 h | 738,794 | 34% | $10 | 99,746 | N/A | |
Aggressive EE | 50% ACH50 Reduction + R-60 Attic Insulation | 421,765 | 19% | $18 | 71,263 | N/A |
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Speake, A.; Donohoo-Vallett, P.; Wilson, E.; Chen, E.; Christensen, C. Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems. Energies 2020, 13, 5192. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13195192
Speake A, Donohoo-Vallett P, Wilson E, Chen E, Christensen C. Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems. Energies. 2020; 13(19):5192. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13195192
Chicago/Turabian StyleSpeake, Andrew, Paul Donohoo-Vallett, Eric Wilson, Emily Chen, and Craig Christensen. 2020. "Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems" Energies 13, no. 19: 5192. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13195192