Next Article in Journal
A Fast State Estimator for Integrated Electrical and Heating Networks
Previous Article in Journal
Anti-Disturbance Finite-Time Adaptive Sliding Mode Backstepping Control for PV Inverter in Master–Slave-Organized Islanded Microgrid
Previous Article in Special Issue
The Value of PV Power Forecast and the Paradox of the “Single Pricing” Scheme: The Italian Case Study
Article

From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study

1
ASRC, University at Albany, 151 Fuller Rd., Albany, NY 12203, USA
2
Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA
3
Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome, Tor Vergata, via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2020, 13(17), 4489; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13174489
Received: 4 July 2020 / Revised: 31 July 2020 / Accepted: 20 August 2020 / Published: 31 August 2020
We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, and hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is the plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to achieving least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in the absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future costs of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices. View Full-Text
Keywords: firm power generation; energy storage; irradiance forecasts; implicit storage; grid integration; ultra-high RE penetration firm power generation; energy storage; irradiance forecasts; implicit storage; grid integration; ultra-high RE penetration
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Perez, R.; Perez, M.; Schlemmer, J.; Dise, J.; Hoff, T.E.; Swierc, A.; Keelin, P.; Pierro, M.; Cornaro, C. From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study. Energies 2020, 13, 4489. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13174489

AMA Style

Perez R, Perez M, Schlemmer J, Dise J, Hoff TE, Swierc A, Keelin P, Pierro M, Cornaro C. From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study. Energies. 2020; 13(17):4489. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13174489

Chicago/Turabian Style

Perez, Richard, Marc Perez, James Schlemmer, John Dise, Thomas E. Hoff, Agata Swierc, Patrick Keelin, Marco Pierro, and Cristina Cornaro. 2020. "From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study" Energies 13, no. 17: 4489. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13174489

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop