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Article

Development Forecasts for the Zero-Emission Bus Fleet in Servicing Public Transport in Chosen EU Member Countries

1
Faculty of Computer Science and Management, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland
2
Faculty of Oceanography and Geography, University of Gdańsk, 81-378 Gdańsk, Poland
3
Faculty of Electronics, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2020, 13(16), 4239; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13164239
Received: 30 June 2020 / Revised: 9 August 2020 / Accepted: 12 August 2020 / Published: 16 August 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Economics and Policy in Developed Countries)
Nearly two-thirds of the emissions that cause smog come from road transport. In April 2019, the European Parliament adopted new regulations on public procurement to encourage investment in clean buses—electric, hydrogen, or gas. Directive 2009/33/EC is to apply from the second half of 2021. The aim of this article is to make an attempt to simulate the number of zero-emission buses (ZEB) in European Union (EU) member countries in two time horizons: 2025 and 2030, and to forecast the number of clean vehicles in the precise time horizons, including before and after 2050. Research questions are as follows: (1) what will be the number of ZEBs in individual EU countries over the next few years; (2) which of the EU countries will reach by 2030 the level of 95% share of ZEBs in all buses, which are a fleet of public transport buses; and (3) in which year will which EU countries reach the level of 95% share of zero-emission buses. The method used is a Bass model. The conducted analyses demonstrate that, by 2050, only four of the EU members will be able to reach 95% level of share of clean buses in the city bus transport fleets. It is likely that other countries may not achieve this even by 2050. View Full-Text
Keywords: electric buses; zero-emission buses (ZEB); clean buses; EU policy; zero emission policy; green energy; city management; simulation model; strategy; sustainable development electric buses; zero-emission buses (ZEB); clean buses; EU policy; zero emission policy; green energy; city management; simulation model; strategy; sustainable development
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MDPI and ACS Style

Brdulak, A.; Chaberek, G.; Jagodziński, J. Development Forecasts for the Zero-Emission Bus Fleet in Servicing Public Transport in Chosen EU Member Countries. Energies 2020, 13, 4239. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13164239

AMA Style

Brdulak A, Chaberek G, Jagodziński J. Development Forecasts for the Zero-Emission Bus Fleet in Servicing Public Transport in Chosen EU Member Countries. Energies. 2020; 13(16):4239. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13164239

Chicago/Turabian Style

Brdulak, Anna, Grażyna Chaberek, and Jacek Jagodziński. 2020. "Development Forecasts for the Zero-Emission Bus Fleet in Servicing Public Transport in Chosen EU Member Countries" Energies 13, no. 16: 4239. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13164239

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